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Platinum: Symmetrical pattern recognition for a lower buy.Platinum is on its way to complete a Head and Shoulders pattern on positive gradient, a pattern that was previously identified from late September - November. The similarities are strong and leads us to expect that a similar candle sequence will be followed. This suggest that the price should rebound close to 786.85 and seek a upper neckline of the RS between the 0.500 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels at 811.60. We will use this as the TP.
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Platinum ready to break higher?Platinum hit a 15 year low in August 2018. Since then price has been consolidating. Platinum historically has been more expensive than gold. Price has possibly broken above the bearish trendline and looks ready to break out.
Seasonality supports the break higher. charts.equityclock.com
On the downside, there seems to be strong support around $780.
XPTUSD: Pull back completed. Resuming the bearish trend.Platinum has nearly completed a 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (860.500) on the 1W chart (1029 Top - 756.500 Bottom) and the price should be technically ready to reverse again lower and follow the long term bearish trend. 4H has already developed a Channel Down (RSI = 43.280, Highs/Lows = -0.2893, B/BP = -3.7820) which may spread to 1D (also on Highs/Lows = -1.3214, B/BP = -2.800). 807.070 is the 1D support that needs to be crossed. Also watch for the Higher Low supporting lines (indicated in red). Short, TP = 792.940 and 756.550 in extension.
Targets hit. New bearish pattern in development. Short.Both TP 878.128 and 852.737 in extension have been hit as the previous Channel Down on 1D even crossed our estimated 793.519 bottom. This break-out maintains our sentiment on a bearish path for Platinum as a new Channel Down is being developed on 1D (RSI = 41.648, MACD = -12.930, Highs/Lows = -6.5407, B/BP = -19.9240) seeking 740.000 as its next Lower Low. Only if 846.20 gets crossed, can we consider the probability of a trend reversal, as it will break the Lower High on the 1W Channel Down. Unless that happens, we will stay short on XPTUSD with new TP = 756.538 and 740.857 in extension.
Textbook Lower Highs/LowsAs seen on 1D, Platinum is on a clear Channel Down (Highs/Lows = -1.8536, BBP = -6.7500) and has just been rejected on a new Lower High near 915. 878.128 is a strong support and that is our TP with 852.737 in extension (for extension SL will be moved to profit zone).
Standard Channel Down and new Lower HighPlatinum is trading on a long term 1W Channel Down (Highs/Lows = -12.1143, B/BP = -36.7780, MACD = -13.210) that started off in late January and has just priced the latest Lower High near 915. With 4H neutral (RSI = 50.443, Williams = -46.789) around the blue line, we expect the decline to a new Lower Low to start soon. The TP is at least the previous Lower Low at 877.90 but more risk averse traders can book the profit earlier ay 893.40.
King of the MetalsI have published previously on the silver/gold ratio. Silver is bound to outperform gold over time. The question is whether platinum will outperform silver and gold, or underperform both metals. Watch the dotted line for a breakout. If anyone has interesting research on platinum please post in comments below or pm me (fundamental or historical is preferred).
954 is technical resistance in platinum. Watch current level.
Historical Highs Reached in PalladiumHaven't figured out a way to trade this yet. I've been pricing palladium against many other assets and do not see a clear opportunity. Going to sit this one out until there is more clarity for the type of trade to structure.
Platinum about to lift off? These two markets look interesting together because of the similar price action. Notice how rice was in a descending triangle followed by a breakout. These are typically bearish patterns, but not always, clearly. I believe platinum is in the same consolidation phase before it breaks out. Notice it took rice approximately two years to break out from its established support. Platinum seems like it's on the verge of doing the same. I've seen some traders present shorting opportunities in platinum. I think that's a big mistake.
Other than that, what does platinum have to do with rice? I'd say nothing. There is no inverse or positive correlation whatsoever. Perhaps there is something more between the two, but that is not the point of the analysis.
TECHNICALS | Platinum AdvancesPlatinum has roared through resistance at the edge of its recent distribution (as observed in the distribution on the left axis). Some of the classicists might call it an inverse head and shoulders. Whatever the pattern interpretation, it looks particularly bullish!
Palladium potential H&SWhile I'm generally bulled up on metals but palladium could be running into a right shoulder
United States SteelOn my theme on long metals also having a nibble long at X. Will wait on a move above 37.26 before adding on dips.
Rio Tinto Nov16Goes against my bulled up metals view but will be looking to short above $61. May the meltdown china induced... writing in the tea leaves?
Platinum Makes UptrendPlatinum has been pretty wild for the past few days. True, it is still lower than heck on the daily, but notice how the hourly has started an uptrend. This could be a chance in on the ground floor before a large move upward if the support line holds. Price action is yet to confirm.
Platinum at key levelPlatinum "broke" its down trend recently, but it had a dramatic 2 day pullback to the base of the breakout. It is unclear whether the recent upswing was just a mildly longer pullback (see figure for pullback amounts) which will result in another drop in price or whether this is profit taking from the recent upswing.
A break below 930 indicates a continuation of the downtrend. A bounce off the 943 level indicates a new uptrend. These are confirmation signals, but what if you want to enter the trade sooner? See below.
What type of trader are you?
1. The 976 level could be a "loose" neckline (it could be drawn lower of course) to a head and shoulders pattern that had an absurdly abbreviated right shoulder (excellent short signal!)
2. Since the breakout coincided with both the 200 day EMA and the previous low of the downtrend, there is expected to be hard resistance and a pullback before a solid breakout (go long!).
Gold/Copper Oct'16 - Short term heading south?Bull recoil complete. Time for a tank sub 400?
Long term model suggests a run up towards 700
