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New week, new opportunities!I’m expecting the week to start and take all of the liquidity above those highs (red dots). The volume of that move higher will be very important to take into consideration. The issue is, the week needs to make a new low and that fact alone will probably give bears an advantage from my POV. To make a significant low on the weekly, price will probably have to break H4 structure and if it does, the next demand that I’ll be paying attention is around 1.075. As traders, we need to take into consideration different scenarios and how to act upon them. So here’s how I’ll trade next week. If price starts breaking bellow Fridays low, I’ll start looking for shorts aggressively and considering the possibility that it will reach 1.075. When it does, I’ll look for longs, because price should take liquidity from above, before continuing with bearish momentum if that’s the case. Also important to notice that level is inside weekly demand and if it breaks, the bearish momentum would be very aggressive. I don’t consider that as likely to happen, unless there’s some catalyst from high impact news. The other scenario that I’ll be looking for, is price holding Fridays low and continue higher to take the liquidity as mentioned above. In that case, I’ll consider shorts from around 1.097 BUT since price is coming from daily demand it will depend on how it gets there and even if I take positions, I’ll manage my expectations about the results. Monday and Tuesday don’t have any high impact news, which is perfect for price to grind higher, which is my main expectation for the beginning of the week. Wednesday there’ll be PMI data on EU and US, should be very volatile. Thursday, unemployment claims from the US and Friday consumer sentiment and Powell speech after. The goal is to remain truthful to the plan and enjoy trading for what it is!
Long
by CirculoForex
7 Expert Risk Management Techniques for TradingRisk management refers to the techniques used to identify, evaluate, and mitigate the potential risks associated with trading and investing. Whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or scalper, effective risk management can help you minimize losses and protect your hard earned money all while maximizing potential profits. Let's take a look at the top 7 risk management techniques for trading! 👌 Have a Trading Plan Many traders jump into the market without a thorough understanding of how it works and what it takes to be successful. You should have a detailed trading plan in place before making any trades. A well-designed trading plan is an essential tool for effective risk management. A trading plan acts as a roadmap, laying out a set of guidelines/rules that can help traders avoid impulsive decisions. It is crucial because it requires you to think deeply about your approach before you begin risking real money. Having a plan can help you stay calm under stress as your plan will have specific steps to take for anything the market throws at you. It is essential to clearly define your trading goals and objectives. Are you aiming for short-term gains or long-term wealth generation? Are you focused on a specific asset class or trading strategy? Setting specific and measurable goals helps you stay focused and evaluate your progress. Another important part is to describe the trading strategy you will employ to enter and exit trades. This includes the types of analysis you will employ (technical, fundamental, or a combination), indicators or patterns you will rely on, and any specific rules for trade execution. Determine your risk tolerance, set appropriate position sizing rules, and establish stop-loss levels to limit potential losses. The Risk/reward ratio When you are planning to open a trade, you should analyze beforehand how much money you are risking in that particular trade and what the expected positive outcome is. Here is a useful chart with some examples to understand this concept: As you can see from the data above, a trader with a higher RR (risk-reward ratio) and a low win rate can still be profitable. Let’s examine this a little more by looking at a profitable example with a 20% success rate, a RR ratio of 1:5, and capital of $500. In this example, you would have 1 winning trade with a profit of $500. The losses on the other 4 trades would be a total of $400. So the profit would be $100. An unprofitable RR ratio would be to risk, for example, $500 with a success rate of 20% and a risk/reward ratio of 1:1. That is, only 1 out of 5 trades would be successful. So you would make $100 in 1 winning trade but in the other 4 you would have lost a total of -$400. As a trader, you need to find the perfect balance between how much money you’re willing to risk, the profits you’ll attempt to make, and the losses you’ll accept. This is not an easy task, but it is the foundation of risk management and the Long & Short Position Tools are essential. You can use our 'Long Position' and 'Short Position' drawing tools in the Forecasting and measurement tools to determine this ratio. Stop Loss/Take Profit orders Stop Loss and Take Profit work differently depending on whether you are a day trader, swing trader or long term trader and the type of asset. The most important thing is not to deviate from your strategy as long as you have a good trading strategy. For example, one of the biggest mistakes here is to change your stop loss thinking that the losses will recover... and often they never do. The same thing happens with take profits, you may see that the asset is "going to the moon" and you decide to modify your take profit, but the thing about markets is that there are moments of overvaluation and then the price moves sharply against the last trend. There is an alternative strategy to this, which is to use exit partials, that is closing half of your position in order to reduce the risk of your losses, or to take some profits during an outstanding run. Also remember that each asset has a different volatility, so while a stop loss of -3% is normal for a swing trading move in one asset, in other more volatile assets the stop loss would be -10%. You do not want to get caught in the middle of a regular price movement. Finally, you can use a trailing stop, which essentially secures some profits while still having the potential to capture better performance. Trade with TP, SL and Trailing Stop Selection of Assets and Time intervals Choosing the right assets involves careful consideration of various factors such as accessibility, liquidity, volatility, correlation, and your preference in terms of time zones and expertise. Each asset possesses distinct characteristics and behaviors, and understanding these nuances is vital. It is essential to conduct thorough research and analysis to identify assets that align with your trading strategy and risk appetite. Equally important is selecting the appropriate time intervals for your trading. Time intervals refer to the duration of your trades, which can span from short-term intraday trades to long-term investments. Each time interval has its own advantages and disadvantages, depending on your trading style and objectives. Shorter time intervals, such as minutes or hours, are often associated with more frequent trades and higher volatility. Traders who prefer these intervals are typically looking to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations and execute quick trades. Conversely, longer time intervals, such as days, weeks, or months, prove more suitable for investors and swing traders aiming to capture broader market trends and significant price movements. Take into account factors such as your time availability for trading, risk tolerance, and preferred analysis methods. Technical traders often utilize shorter time intervals, focusing on charts, indicators, and patterns, while fundamental investors may opt for longer intervals to account for macroeconomic trends and company fundamentals. For example, If you are a swing trader with a low knack for volatility, then you can trade in assets such as stocks or Gold and ditch highly volatile assets such as crypto. Remember that there is no one-size-fits-all approach, and your choices should align with your trading style, goals, and risk management strategy. Here is a chart of Tesla from the perspective of a day trader, a swing trader, and an investor: Backtesting Backtesting plays a crucial role in risk management by enabling traders to assess the effectiveness of their trading strategies using historical market data. It involves the application of predefined rules and indicators to past price data, allowing traders to simulate how their trading strategies would have performed in the past. During the backtesting process, traders analyze various performance metrics of their strategies, such as profitability, risk-adjusted returns, drawdowns, and win rates. This analysis helps identify the strengths and weaknesses of the strategies, allowing traders to refine them and make necessary adjustments based on the insights gained from the backtesting results. The primary objective of backtesting is to evaluate the profitability and feasibility of a trading strategy before implementing it in live market conditions. By utilizing historical data, traders can gain valuable insights into the potential risks and rewards associated with their strategies, enabling them to manage their risk accordingly. However, it's important to note the limitations of backtesting. While historical data provides valuable information, it cannot guarantee future performance, as market conditions are subject to change. Market dynamics, liquidity, and unforeseen events can significantly impact the actual performance of a strategy. There are plenty of ways to backtest a strategy. You can run a manual test using Bar Replay to trade historical market events or Paper Trading to trade real examples. Those with coding skills can create a strategy using Pine Script and run automated tests on TradingView. Here is an example of the Moving Averages Crossover strategy using Pine Script: Margin allocation We are not fortune tellers, so we cannot predict how assets will be affected by sudden major events. If the worst happens to us and we have all of our capital in a particular trade, the game is over. There are classic rules such as the maximum allocation percentage of 1% per trade (e.g. in a $20,000 portfolio this means that it cannot be risked +$200 per trade). This can vary depending on your trading strategy, but it will definitely help you manage the risk in your portfolio. Diversification and hedging It is very important not to put all your eggs in one basket. Something you learn over the years in the financial markets is that the unexpected can always happen. Yes, you can make +1000% in one particular trade, but then you can lose everything in the next trade. One way to avoid the cold sweats of panic is to diversify and hedge. Some stock traders buy commodities that are negatively correlated with stocks, others have a portfolio of +30 stocks from different sectors with bonds and hedge their stocks during downtrends, others buy an ETF of the S&P 500 and the top 10 market cap cryptos... There are unlimited possible combinations when diversifying your portfolio. At the end of the day, the most important thing to understand is that you need to protect your capital and using the assets available to you a trader can hedge and/or diversify to avoid letting one trade ruin an entire portfolio. Thank you for reading this idea on risk management! We hope it helps new traders plan and prepare for the long run. If you're an expert trader, we hope this was a reminder about the basics. Join the conversation and leave your comments below with your favorite risk management technique! 🙌 - TradingView Team
Education
by TradingView
64
[ PMI ] Red Folder News Scenario's 🔥/ Eurusd For PMI data I'm favoring a continued push up throughout NY Session. If this does not happen then i anticipate the volatility to create the High of the day then slowly faded off the highs back to support at 1.08743. It is Monday and the market is setting up for the rest of the week so beware of that. On My last publishing I detail a potential fakeout on the Daily timeframe after the Friday candle Closed back inside the range last week above 1.0892 which is now our weekly support level. I'm looking for price to return to 1.096 daily resistance this week with the fakeout market structure. The Daily candle was bearish all day today and has only just recently flipped back bullish as we coincide with PMI data in 7 minutes. I took a buy and just TP with majoirty of my position., holding on to some during news with SL at B.E. Update : Price shot into profit and my runner position I took Profit at +25 Pips
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Momentum from last week ↘️ // Eurusd what's cooking? 👨‍🍳We have a fair share of news events this week to shake things up. These news events will be a catlayst for a coniuation of momentum or the cause for a reversal in the short term here. Now the Monthly candle is closing at the end of this week and we must keep in mind that it is closing bullish. I don't anticipate this weekly candle to drop 222 pips but it's not impossible. The Weekly candle from last week closed bearish rejecting Daily Resistance Zone 1.098 and Weekly resistance zone 1.1024. The top wick rejection was larger than the body of the candle denoting a good amount of sell pressure on Eurusd. The Friday daily candle closed bearish taking out all the lows from earlier in the week. Ideally for this week we would like to see the previous weekly candle's bottom wick (Approximately 48 pips ) be filled with momentum carried over from the prior week. 1.09160 is a Daily and 4hr S/R Level and may act as an area for price to distribute and take us to lower prices. If price gets a close above there we have clean traffic back up to 1.09564 4hr resistance zone. Otherwise if price can get a solid candle close below 1.08845 4hr Support zone then we have a nice 30 pip clean traffic range to decrease back to the low of last week at 1.0848 4hr Zone. Downside target for week is 1.081 4Hr Support zone If wrong, then expecting a range and possible eventual increase back to highs at 1.09875 Daily Resistance Zone.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
💭 Daily Tf Key Level plays Important Role ( 1.0918 )This week 1.0918 Daily Support/Resistance Zone will likely play an important role in the direction of this week's price behavior. This was a Major Support during last week's price action may very well act as a resistance level for the new week's price action. The new weekly candle gapped up but at the end of New York trading we can observe a hold of 1.0918 Daily S/R Zone. We are currently in a tight range to begin the week between this mentioned level and the 4hr support zone 1.0886. If Sellers fail to hold below 1.09180 then entry upon break and retest above it with targets at 1.0958 4hr Zone and the previous week's high at daily resistance zone 1.0986. Otherwise with Sells here we may continue to anticpate momentum to return to the downside. Our weekly target for sells remains at 1.081. More Analysis : Started off the week taking Sells from our Daily S/R Zone 1.0918 . Earned +.5% on the account about after commissions. It turned out to be the high of the day. Being pro-active with your trading plays an important role in profitability. Trade where it is most uncomfortable and you will likely see your results improve. Not Financial advice this has been and will always be education.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Eurusd Shaking out Weak hands?Trading is not complicated once you have a good understanding of whatever your technical approach is to the markets. After that good understanding is achieved you will have reasonable expectations about where price can go and will rarely be surprised. However, trading can become difficult when you throw trading psychology in the mix. Positive trading psychology is the sum of your mindset, discipline, and patience. This is why it's the most fragile and significant portion of your bottom line. Listening to the great traders and reading about their stories it's often mentioned as the most important piece of the puzzle when it comes to long term & consistent returns. It requires inner reflection and a good amount of attention from time to time. I have run into one of these occasions as I have strayed from my bread and butter. I have nonetheless created a rule on my trading plan to save me from any future occasions.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Risk/Reward Bitcoin Setup ⛲Risk/Reward is the name of the game. In my scalping this morning I've taken 10 trades. I have gone on a losing streak of 10 trades in a row. After reading the books I've become aware that this is not unsual for a profitable system in the markets. I like the analogy of pulling marbles out of a hat. If you have an edge in the market then over the long term the marbles you pull out of the Hat will net you a positive R. However, in the short term you may pull out 10 marbles consecutively that do not net you anything. This is where trust in your experience and system will serve us as traders for a long time to come. Technicals : Price has arrived at our monhtly supply zone 29,305$. Price is up 9ish percent over 2 days. The Market is not random and I'm aware of that. 8 4hr candles in a row is not common and that is a fact. Combining these confluences..
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ShrewdCatfx
This is Forex.. (Timing is Key) Correction with London 📻 Currently Sitting at 4Hr Supply Zone ( 1.09945 ) Looking for lower prices as price has touched into a 4hr Supply zone and we have an upcoming london session. What we may observe is a quick spike then a hard retreat back down to 1.098 or even 1.0945 ( Both of which are daily S/R Levels) . You can observe this behavior on Eurusd from last week. I will include a snapshot. A Brief description being as price was creating Higher Highs and Higher Lows on the daily timeframe EU was stairstepping it's way up by doing a retest at Daily S/R Zones. The wednesday Daily candle did a retest at 1.07817 Daily S/R Zone/. The Thursday daily candle did a retest at the 1.08126 Daily S/R Level. It's a recurring theme and is something we may anticipate as price continues to makes it's ascent. You may trade the pullback to the downside or wait for better Risk/Reward Long price areas. More attractive long prices area's being the 1.098 and 1.0945 Daily S/R Zones previously mentioned. Sometimes it's more about understanding the psychology of market participants and using this to your advantage. Price is High as we approach the 2nd to last london session of the week. But with london we will expect more volume and why not a pullback with this volume. We are sitting at a supply zone anyways. There is alot of liquitiy in forex and so you will not see insane 10% increases in 2 days like you can observe in crypto.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
News Speeches Stir the pot 🕊️// Eurusd We would like to see the Daily candle close above 1.0945 as this will confirm a breakout to the upside. The candle at that point will close above the daily resistance zone created by last friday's daily candle. The idea is that we have momentum leftover from last week and will see the curretn weekly candle push deeper into the Daily/Weekly zones above. Wild trading day for me but besides that Eurusd has seen a resurgence of bullish volume that we were anticipating after last weeks Weekly candle closure. We were anticipating a continuation of momentum this week and I mentnioned in my previous Eurusd publishing that we may pullback and conolisdate early in the week as the markets sets up. The market needs time to gather liquidity before it makes significant moves. It does that by causing alot of volatility and commotion in the short term in order to get traders on tilt and stir up the pot. Moving forward I'm looking towards a retest of the extreme 1Hr Zone 1.096 and eventually an increase to the next daily resistance level 1.0982 during the next london session.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Post-Interest Rates... 🏁--> Momentum Push? USD Interest rates helped to pull EURUSD back for better prices. Euro interest rates was the catalyst for a +1% increase in the EURUSD currency pair. The WeekIy candle can push a bit more to end off the week. We usually have a bunch of liquid just past extreme highs and that is what I am explaining on the chart. This is a price action concept. took buys at the beginning of the move and took my humble 14 pips. Anticipating a continuation of price to the upside with consumer sentiment tomorrow. It is expected to improve over the prior data point two weeks ago for the USD. Given the massive buy volume it is difficult for me to visualize that the current daily candle will not attempt at lease so some of push towards the next daily level 1.098 Daily Resistance Level.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
The Roller Coaster is always a Bumpy ride 🎢The Market can feed everyone but it's not not the market's duty. The market's duty is to provide a playground for a fair auction to take place. The conditions and the rules at the playgorund change from time to time but principles never cease to exist. The market needs liquidity to trend and it's the losing trader's emotion that fuels that. The market will achieve it's own goals just as mother nature and the dragon of time will eat us all. The market is a neutral entity and not one of us as participants are immune to it's wrath. Respect the market as it can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Pay close attention to money management and/or Position sizing because it will help you attain your goals. With all that said I have outlined my favorite level's on the chart. There are traders buying the high and the market will not make it easy on them. Or maybe the market breaks everything like the night king in Game of thrones. All you should do is take good risk/reward ideas. Create a system suited towards your personalities and inclinations. Orient yourself to what is most comfortable but be pro-active with your entries. Cut your losses short and let you profits run. Don't cut your winners just because you want to be right about the direction. Pay yourself for the time you spend in front of the screen. I have other obligations but the way I would go about trading interest rates would be to wait 1Hr after the news. Once the market has decided the direction, I lower my position size and follow my system's entry technique for trading with momentum. Additionally, If the market reacts off one of my level's I will anticipate a double top/double bottom. Safe Trading.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Sustainable Trend? / Eurusd Longs 🐂As price rejects our weekly Level 1.066 which began on May 31st, we map a possible scenario in which we may jump on the train with long positions. I am anticipating the new weekly candle to pullback first and create a bottom wick as most weekly candles contain. Price has arguably been in a range for the past 2 weeks. The Last 2 red folders news events last week assisted in the increase of price. I am anticipating the same sort of price action this week with CPI ( which is expected to decrease and in theory pump risk assets liek EUR) and Interest rates to be catlalysts for a further increase in price. I idea is that the general consensus for interest rates being held at the same rate supports our preceding trend to the upside. Because it will be priced in and the status quo maintains. The trend is developing to the upside and some news releases will act as a catalyst for a continuation or an excuse to pullback for lower price opportunities. If this bias blows over we may simply obersve a contiued rnage on Eurusd between Support level 1.06902 Daily Support level and 1.0776 (averaged) Daily resistance level. This range scenario or descent on Eurusd will occur if we observe risk off sentiment as crypto continues to plummet and we observe a correction on the U.S. stock indices. Institutions and other large players will crowd into buying the dollar and our ascent to 1.078 will look nothing more than a pump to lure in Late long liquidity as we fall back to 1.066 weekly level.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
The Eagle eyes a ( Risk on ) Inflation report 🦅The market is going up for asian session and I'm anticipating a correction of this price action during lodnon session. With USD CPI data during New york session it is possible price could just fly to the next daily resistance zone 1.0813. This will likely occur if the 4.1% forecasted inflation rate isn't met and inflation decreases at a slower rate than what is expected. I think this to be the more likely scenario because a .8% decrease in inflation seems like a bit much to me. I'm not anticipating that EURUSD will take it's lovely time increasing. It will be abrupt and cutthroat as the market blows through Investors's ***** ... Okay I will stop there because I don't want to make things to explicit. That's whats happening when price fluctuates 50 pips in the blink of an eye anyways. It's not what you want to hear but it's the truth. The unprepared will be taken to the slaughterhouse. I will implement my trading system as it allots. Risk management / Position sizing and capital preservation are especially significant during times like this. CPI data releases have acquired an important role in the last 2 years due consistently high inflation. If Eurusd continues it's downtrend on Higher timeframes and last week's bull candle was just a dead cat's bounce, then we may anticipate that price will spike at or above 1.0782 Daily resistance level or even go touch 1.0813 Daily resistance level before returning to the downside as the current daily candle closes back underneath 1.0782 Daily level and goes back down prior to FOMC interest rate news on Wednesday. Price has estalbished a new Daily support level at 1.0746
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
The AEM Framework: 3-Step Guide to Successful TradingToday, I'd like to introduce you to the 'AEM' framework – a three-step process to successful trading. This framework is designed for everyone, from beginners starting their journey to seasoned professionals looking to refine their strategies. It involves three fundamental steps: Analyze, Execute, and Manage. Let's break down each element: 🔍 'A' for Analyze The first step to becoming a successful trader is to understand yourself and find a trading style that suits your personality, risk tolerance, and financial goals. This includes your emotional comfort with taking risks, your patience levels, and your time commitment to trading. Once you've figured out your trading style, the next step is to analyze potential strategies. Whether you're inclined towards fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or a combination of both, you must thoroughly understand the strategies you want to apply. Finally, analyze your chosen strategies and yourself to create a robust trading plan. Your trading plan should include what you'll trade, when you'll enter and exit trades, and your criteria for decision-making. Remember, the goal isn't to make perfect predictions but to follow a consistent plan that can potentially yield positive results over the long term. 🎯 'E' for Execute The second phase is execution. You've made your plan, and now it's time to put it into action. Execute your trades according to your strategy, without letting emotions cloud your judgement. Remember, it's about sticking to your plan – not chasing profits or running from losses. But executing your plan isn't just about trading. It's about discipline and consistency, regularly reviewing your trading activity, making adjustments as necessary, and continuously learning from your experiences. 📊 'M' for Manage The final step in the AEM framework involves managing several aspects of your trading: Manage Yourself: Trading can be emotionally taxing. Maintain your physical and mental health to ensure you're always in the best shape to make rational decisions. Manage Your Risk: No strategy is bulletproof. Always use stop losses, position sizing, and diversification to manage your risk effectively. Manage Your Trades: Monitor your trades, keep records, and review them periodically to identify patterns, learn from your mistakes, and improve your strategy. Manage Your Money: Keep your capital safe. Never risk more than a small percentage of your trading capital on any single trade, and be sure to keep some funds in reserve for unexpected opportunities or setbacks. The AEM approach is a comprehensive method that can assist you at all levels in creating, executing, and managing a successful trading plan. It encourages introspection, disciplined execution, and careful management. Remember, the journey to trading success isn't always smooth, but the right approach and mindset can make it considerably more navigable.
Education
by TheFxAce
13
Don't Eat the Forbidden Fruit and Buy the High ❎The Market can do whatever it wants. The market may do as it wishes whenever it pleases. Like the wrath of a god. We are not gods. We are humans and not one of us is invincible. Therefore we must only take good Risk/Reward ideas. Buying up here is not a good RR Idea. Buying the High and chasing the market is Forbidden to professional traders. Just as Selling the low is. These are principles that the trader learns along the long and painful journey to profitability. This is how the Average man , through patience and diligence , may become the greatest of warriors. And line his pocket in ever-increasing quantities. Don't chase but allow the market to arrive at your level's. The latter has probabilities in favor.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ShrewdCatfx
6
Creation of the Top wick / Weekly Candle / End of WeekThere are only two things that can happen on Friday's Daily Candle 1) Price may continue to create a larger weekly candle body or 2) the weekly candle will form a larger wick and retrace This week we are observing the latter Price is pulling away from the High prices created during yesterday's New York Session If the Daily candle closes beneath 1.0762 then we have returned back into the range and will be eyeing out potential short setups to begin next week. For Buys I would've preferred that we would have held 1.07615 Daily S/R Zone as we can see it played a key role in pivoting on 6/2, 5/19, and 3/27 Now we continue the range as far as Im concerned. We may pullback to the highs ( 1.0774 and 1.0786) early next week ( Monday/Tuesday ) then dive back to support at 1.069 Daily Support.
by ShrewdCatfx
Ongoing Range above Key level 🎴We can observe the Ongoing Range above our Key Level ( Weekly Level 1.066 ) Monday Asian Session -> Bearish Monday London Session -> Bearish Monday NY Session -> Bullish Tuesday Asian Session -> Range, and at best slightly Bullish Tuesday London Session -> Bearish Tuesday NY Session -> Bullish Both London Session's this week have been Bearish thus far. As we approach unemployment claims data on Thursday NY Session, I can observe a Bullish London Session and increase overall on Eurusd until then. Price is not quite having the effect it once had when we initially dipped into our Weekly level last week 1.06636. The reactions off the Weekly level are becoming smaller and less pronounced. We are still holding steady however and price has not dipped below our weekly level since the initial touch. Short Sellers are happy that the Daily candle is closing bearish and they would prefer a close below Daily support at 1.06885. Buyers are happy that the decrease over the last 4 weeks on Eurusd has come to a halt as the Daily timeframe ranges above our weekly level through 1 week and 2 days into the next week. The manufacturing data yesterday was bullish for Eurusd and caused an increase in the price. Consequently, this increase was corrected down to the price of EU prior to any manufacturing data. However, NY session has been bullish for the 2nd day in a row as EU holds steady above our weekly key level. Today I had a very good trading day taking buys at lower prices near what was a 1Hr Zone at the time 1.067. The Level has since turned into a 4Hr Zone as New York has successfully rejected those lower prices.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Fake Breakout / Fakeout BTC 🔄This view of BTC comes from a background of Price action trading. Trading Fakeout's are quite common in the Forex market and have proven to be a cornerstone of my Trading Strategy. Fakeout's occur on all timeframes and take the market for an unpleasant ride. Traders Buy the breakout or in this case Short the breakout hoping to jump on the train and continue to lower prices. The liquidity that is generated is consequently used by large players to 1) Scale out of their short positions and 2) To gradually accumulate opposing orders ( In this case Buy orders ) Fakeout's are not hard to anticipate and are somewhat similar to trading support and resistance levels. The only difference being the sequence in which the market sets itself up prior to the support and resistance bounce. In this case we can observe that the price on the Daily timeframe has been bouncing between 26,400$ and 27,400$ since May 12. Price recently closed quite the bearish candle on June 5th ; closing outside of our previously mentioned range. A good Risk/Reward idea suggests that we may bounce from the bottom of the range.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ShrewdCatfx
USD Buyers Surprised by News Release 🎋 Hold or fold? Manufacturing Data sent Eurusd price soaring 42 Pips in less than 11 minutes as the expected figure missed. Is the current Price sustainable for Eurusd? The Weekly candle dipped down to down Daily Support Level 1.06684 and coinciding with manufacturing data we have rejected our Daily support level. In order for the current Daily candle to close bullish price needs to close above 1.07107. Bullish Argument - If the Daily candle closes where it currently sits, it looks like a Bullish hammer candle. - A Bullish Hammer candle rejecting Daily Support Level 1.06884 - Price has retraced Asian session and London sessions's bearish descent - I am anticipating a steady bullish recovery in EURUSD price since the meeting minutes on May 24 ( For more, please check the post " Ultimate Catalyst : Interest Rates News " ) - The Weekly candle last week closed as a Doji candle, an Indecision candle as bears ran into a wall at our weekly support zone 1.06643 Given all of this, It is very common to see News releases get corrected. I believe this will occur over the next few sessions as we could observe during the May 10th CPI announcement. On this announcement Price initially spiked up with news. This occured only to see Eurusd price corrected as the market digested the news. It took 18 Hours before Eurusd corrected the May CPI news. Price on Eurusd was decreasing to close out last week. This week price had only been decreasing with exception for the New York session manufacturing data news release. I am anticipating Eurusd to range and gather more orders around 1.0688 Daily support before seeing anymore upside.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Most Relevant Short term Level's / US30 🧑‍💼33,111 Support on the Weekly Timeframe 34,092 Resistance on the Weekly Timeframe With Monday Daily candle close, we have just created a Daily resistance zone at 33,760 32,856 is the nearest Daily Support Zone After the market pumped up +2% last Friday, we can observe a -.61% down Monday. The Market has been ranging for 6 months plus. I think we will continue to observe a range after the Daily timeframe popped it's head above 33,675 ( Previously a Daily resistance after Friday's Daily candle closed above it ) Monday's price action has had the Market ease off the highs and are idea here is that this will continue into Tuesday's and Wednesday's Trading. If the Market sticks it heads back up to 33,762 it may offer a good Risk Reward Bearish Setup
UShort
by ShrewdCatfx
Surrender Bears! Accumulation above 26,747 ? 📽️Timeframes are closing above Weekly Zone 26,770. Unless during the next 22 hours we see a 1.22% dump below our weekly level , I'm Looking up from here. Price has returned into our range from the second half of May between Daily Zone 27,400$ and 26,747$ Weekly Zone. Price printed a solid Bull candle rejecting our Weekly level which was anticipated. Price consolidated and dropped slightly during yesterday's daily candle. We haven't started dumping and price has been consolidating along the Highs of our Daily range from the Second half of Month May. The Highs during the Second half of May being 27,400$. As the New week begins I am looking for an Increase in Bitcoin as the debt ceiling controversy ends and the Summer begins. 29,246 Weekly Level is our target for the 1st half of June. Safe Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ShrewdCatfx
Forex Gods 🧞 Dare to Continue Eurusd? Well.. entering the final london session of the week here. I'd be a fool to change up on my analysis. What I have projected thus far this week has occurred exactly as I had anticipated. Would I be foolish to give up on this and outsmart my original idea so to speak. I don't want to play myself. When you stick around in the markets long enough, you begin to see things occur over and over again. Those who know, understand. It's not complicated though and it's actually pretty straightforward. When you mix an attachment to money in there, well no sh*t it is tied to our survival in the modern age. Well that's when things get complicated. Otherwise, I'm simply drawing lines and articulating what's unknown to me at this present time. I've done it long enough now to the point in which I am quite confident either way. Most of the time price bounces at my levels and so for the rest of time I will have the ability to create attractive Risk/Reward ideas. What a privilege. The difficult part is sticking around long enough to gain another perspective. I've seen many come and go and I feel lonely at times. I suppose that so long as I can draw my accurate level's/zones on the charts, the gods will have a place for me. Just as the gods do for all of us.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx