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Bitcoin Marketcap v Federal reserve M1A nod to @unbeldi And a updated chart Swapping the Bitcoin price to marketcap over the M1 money As BTC is a Trillion dollar asset again and was invented to be peer to peer cash It's good to compare the ratio vs the dollar. And imagine one day in the future that it may dethrone the King. Since BTC is natively digital and global (M2 is slightly larger number and the more commonly used metric @ 20.86 Trillion) The number of coins I used for the 100k & 400k price projections was 19,791,006 If you wanted to check my maths This is the current and supply and the estimate of number of coins in 10 months time.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by BallaJi
1
Bitcoin made complexAs someone who has been around Bitcoin a long time, I find it interesting to see people try and find their own "edge" from how they utilise on-chain metrics, to liquidity maps and sometimes even deeper with things like the energy consumption or BTC mined. The last couple, most recent years - Bitcoin has been moving towards it's institutional position and that has been something incredible to watch first hand as it slowly unfurled. The logic can be simplified and following the larger players and their intentions can be very lucrative. The major issue with statistics and metrics is that these can also be spoofed, manipulated and written in ways favourable to the cause. **Caveat - not always, but can be ** What gets me is when a local 'influencer' comes up with why Bitcoin will ping some arbitrary figure just because it sounds rounded. I haven't once heard someone say, it's likely to hit $237,500 followed by some logical argument. Here's some simple logic. Bitcoin's market cap. At $69,000 we saw a cap of 1.3T roughly. To obtain this number you can do the math by knowing how many coins in circulation and times that by the price. This of course will be ever changing, new addresses and price fluctuations coupled with more coins until 21m is hit. So you can be rough on your calculations without stressing. Here is a snapshot of the coins in circulation Take this now with the current price lingering around $27,000 you have a market cap. Why does this matter? Well, it doesn't really, other than to guestimate what kind of additional money in-flows would be required to make Bitcoin as valuable as the influencers claim. Let's use the current number 19,491,306 Times that by the price claimed and you can guestimate a Market Cap. 19 million, 491 thousand, 3 hundred and 6 times $250,000 (often used figure) The question then becomes - where does the additional money come from? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In this image, you can see the steady growth of the tokens/coins in circulation Or here the transactions per day. How about the energy consumption? You see, none of this actually matters when analysing the charts. Instead, understanding the picture painted by the larger players in the game, can give you hints as to where and why next. You take the snapshot of the COT (Commitment of Traders) report. This has allowed me to assess every major move in the Bitcoin chart, the logic for each swing is smacking you square in the face. These moves are not as random as you think. The market is simply an algorithm seeking liquidity. Nothing more complex than that. Instead these clowns come up with figures like $250,000 and quotes like 98k next month and 135k the month after, without any logic or rational as to how or where the money is coming from. Instead of moving up to $135,000 the price drops to $15,500 that's an awful lot to be wrong. Why? ZERO logic or clue as to what actually moves the market. Imagine selling at the top?! If the smiley laughing emoji hadn't have been used, it could have been one awesome call! Instead of looking in the wrong places, learn to understand where and why. Here's another interesting topic on this point. Anyways, enjoy the rest of your week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
Has Bitcoin done rallying?Analysis is based purely on price action and TA. If Bitcoin plays out as 'it should be', I believe the local top for bitcoin for 2023 will be ~39k. Unless more structure is broken downwards, the supposingly 12k bottom that everyone has been bidding on will be unlikely. 25k will be a very good layer to DCA in for the bigger picture. However, we might have a chance to see the 15k area again. According to the price action back in 2018/2019, cloning that to the current price action, 39k will be the local top (as mentioned above) THEN I would expect a hard retracement to 15k again. there will be a lot of smart money at 33k that will exit the market. 33 to 39 will be the retailers, then will be flushed out by the retracment to 15k Leverage wise, I will be opening some small short positions here targetting the 25k area. This is the story that I will be sticking for now. Have fun
by SuperMonkey0
Ok we were right not to pay 25k but how about 20k?Update from vacation in Stellenbosch South Africa! It's lovely here. That is all. OK, seriously, in the associated posts I spelled out why it was dumb to follow the "influencers" who just want you to trade, and who don't care if you make money. They were all howling for the moon at $24-$25k. The screenshot on the chart had BUY BITCOIN !!!!!!!! 3 weeks ago. Luckily YouTube automatically alters his titles when he screws up, so now it has ?????? after it instead. Only idiots follow him. So, to answer the question, at this lower ($20k) level it is worth a DCA buy. The rally to 25k is bullish evidence, but wasn't a buy opportunity. Maybe buy when Carl says sell? (Like he is now) There may be another rally back up and another drop to come. I don't think it goes down to 16k, simply because everyone would love that. I think that might actually be bearish, in fact. There are other reasons, but I'm keeping them for subscribers. Have patience, suppress your instincts. If you listened and didn't buy at 25, you have no pressure on you.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
15
Bitcoin Bull Run is coming!That got your attention, didn't it? While it IS coming, we don't mean right now this week. This sort of post always gets people's attention. There are lots of them like it at present, and we are all only human. It is very difficult to ignore visual stimulus like this, but you simply have to if you are going to survive in the trading world. The world was full of FUD and negative posts when BTC was $16k. How strange! The influencers simply reinforce whatever belief they think you have. At the bottom you were miserable and so they told you it was "all over for bitcoin" (thanks Carl). Now you are happy and they are feeding THAT feeling instead. They just want you to trade. If you make accounts and trade, they make money! Myself and @Mayfair_Ventures have predicted almost all of this. Look here This is Lewis's series of predictions. All drawn from logic and not cherry picked. We don't take videos and ideas down, so you can browse any of them. Please just listen to logic. Follow @Mayfair_Ventures as well if you haven't already. He will comment on Bitcoin later. Have a read when he does, but buying it here will NOT be what he recommends...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
6
Buzz this yearIs there any intelligent life in crypto land? People have jumped in this space on the assumption that we are only goin up. This reminds me of a certain film and can be broken down using key character traits. So we have the followers; not doing much, if any analysis for themselves. Instead buying on the hope that Bitcoin & Crypto can only ever go up! This isn't helped by the type of influencers who shill coins in pump n dumps and scream in all of their video's - Bitcoin is going to 100k. We saw Cowboy's like M & M crypto, Moonzilla Carl, Plan Bee, C or D and the Rover of Buybits or Big boy! (none of the real names used for no reason at all) The list could go on and on!!!! Unfortunate for many - these Potato heads have little between the ears. So although it's how I wanted to stop my drawing, I decided to complete it for this post. I've said for over a year now here on @TradingView that charts need to go down as well as up. You could see it coming from a mile away. Well, lightyears away to tell the truth! Using techniques like Wyckoff and Elliott (and I've covered these in education terms, here on tradingview) Might seem a little prehistoric, but human sentiment will not change anytime soon!!! So sometimes a playful dinosaur like @Paul_Varcoe streaming, is worth listening too. Instead of only UP, UP and AWAY!!! Moon clowns! Look at their calls and buying each top. And what did we do? Like I said above - this was mapped out over a year ago now and still playing it's game! So chill out, it's only doing it's thing! Don't follow the crowd or listen to cowboy's! Enjoy the weekend!!!! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
25
Bitcoin's Stock to flow and Log Growth Curve suggest upside 30xBitcoin has been boring the last couple of months and has roughly gone sideways in a rather long range for the last year. The price action has been sideways some of the longer term indicators have been priming and suggest that the next move is to the upside. The stock to flow model comes and goes in popularity with the volatility of bitcoin. When bitcoin is impulsing to the upside people pay a lot of attention to the indicator. Then there are times like we are in right now, when the stock to flow has moved but price action is still roughly sideways. I myself historically have always doubted the stock to flow but it is putting more history behind it and so it seems to be more reliable than I have previously thought. There are several different versions of log growth curves and I find this one useful. It is subdivided into sectors and I have elected to simplify the curve by showing the top and bottom 14.59% as well as the middle portion of the band. For the last two pumps on the stock to flow bitcoin moved roughly sideways around one of the log growth bands for quite a while before pumping to target or beyond. For the last couple of months price has hopped on top of the lower band I defined and so far has done a good job of finding support. The Log MACD histogram is beginning to approach zero and the Log MACD is turning up. The hidden bullish divergence increases the probability that we will see a sustained move to the upside. If the last two trend pumps of the stock to flow are suggestive of this next uptrend we will still have to be patience for this move to slowly pick up steam. Hopefully we will see that strength pick up over the next two-six weeks. If the stock to flow ends up being accurate will will have to get a new log growth curve. First things first will be to see how this weekly pattern resolves. But I have seen plenty of TA around that so I won't replicate it here except to say a move to the top of the weekly keltner is likely, then retesting the horizontal level of the ascending triangle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
9
Bitcoin Analysis Update 🆕🆙Before directly analyzing Bitcoin itself, we will deal with the relevant information Things are currently affecting our analysis: 1. The start of the war between Ukraine and Russia could have a devastating effect on the cryptocurrency market for a short time 2. Despite high inflation in the United States and the fact that the Federal Reserve has decided to increase interest rates seven times, we will move towards a shrinking economy, which is not good for BTC at all. And can lead to a prolongation of the btc downtrend. 3. Accounts that have been holding btc for more than a year are increasing, which can be a positive thing for btc. Of course, this will also take some time to have a positive effect on the market --->https://decentrader.com/charts/1y-hodl-wave/ Due to the above interpretations and the current situation of btc, it is predicted that we will not have a very strong upward movement for at least the next 1 to 2 months. ----------- > this is My previous analysis 3 scenarios are possible for btc to continue moving. 1. In the most optimistic case, the uptrend from the range of $ 42,000, which is not very likely due to the situation in the US economy and the situation in Ukraine and Russia mentioned above, and the situation of the SPX chart, is unlikely to occur. ------- > www.tradingview.com 2. The most realistic scenario is to move to the level of $ 33,000, and then start an upward movement, which for such a scenario to occur, the important level of $ 39,000 must be broken again, which is highly possible. 3.Down to $ 29,000, which is a very, very important level that requires breaking the two levels of $ 39,000 and $ 33,000, which is unlikely. But if this scenario happens, it will be very difficult for BTC and the start of the uptrend will start with a long delay (this scenario does not seem very likely due to the increase in whale purchases and increase in long-term accounts, but it should not be forgotten He did) Given the macroeconomic situation and the BTC chart, it still takes time to start a strong BTC rally. But on the other hand, BTC is at a price level that can not be expected to fall too much. But the possibility of BTC going into oscillation mode is very high. Which is good for taders but not very good for holders
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by aria1382
Bitcoin Price Prediction logarithmic ModelBitcoin Price Prediction logarithmic Model. Make sure to use this model in BTCUSDT logarithmic chart in a monthly time frame! Many cool guys predicted high prices for the future of Bitcoin, but this logarithmic model shows you where you are on this path of price growth so that you can enter and exit the market at a more convenient point. Determination ranges are based on Fibonacci levels, It's shows you the support and resistance zone on the Bitcoin logarithmic chart to understand the long-term market movement. Hope it can help you guys. Thanks, ARudd & @Quantadelic
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Insights360
Bitcoin Mastery These last few months have been amazing to see Bitcoin become more professionalised as a trading instrument. When I started trading BTC back in 2011 - it was a punt, a gamble and something I hoped would grow but wasn't sure. Throughout 2021 you have seen each swing tag key levels - value ranges, MP patterns, Fibonacci extensions and clusters. Respect Gann and Ney levels. It's been very interesting to see an instrument evolve in front of our eyes. Although I covered recently the full years worth of BTC movement; This all comes back to the retail psychology which was covered in the Simpson post. To see the price respect these levels only shows the presence of institutional money flow, pulling the strings. We can see similar respect starting to form in ETH (Ethereum) too; Looking back to this latest move up from the 28,800 level you can see the move did exactly as was expected in August. Tagging to the pip on the way up; In October I was showing why we where tagging a distribution level high - guess what; There you go again. When you put all of these components together, it's clear to see where exactly we are on the roadmap. 2022 - will be a magical year but it's not going to be as easy as many retail traders would assume or like it to be. Have a great New Years! See you on the other side!!! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
9