QQQ Entry, Volume, Target, Stop
Entry: with price above 387.98
Volume: with volume greater than 54M
Target: 398.92 area (this is an area, no guarantee it reaches this price, but you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 387.99, 382.52 gets you 2/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
Planthetrade
How to avoid the loss of funds in the transaction?Regardless of experience, every trader needs a plan. The key factors that can help the transaction become safer, they are the necessary strategic minimum requirements to ensure stable income and avoid unpredictable losses.
Why Do Traders Fail?
Let's take a look at the top reasons why traders lose money:
Trading is a complex process. Trading strategies require discipline and precision. Even with the best ideas, some traders can forget to act systematically.
Traders can be reckless. They give up doing market analysis, don't bother with stop loss orders, and forget about the rules of risk management. These all lead to mistakes and bad deals.
So how to avoid the loss of funds in the transaction?
1 Don't build positions with huge volume
If you are unsure of market movements, focus on at most one or two trades in a session. In the case of a small order volume, it is more controllable to track and find out various opportunities.
Please note that some factors, such as slippage (the difference between the expected price of the order and the actual execution price of the order), are unsolvable and cannot be considered in advance before the transaction is opened).
2Using Stop Loss and Take Profit
To reduce the risk of losing your money, you can use a stop loss order. They protect you from losing more money than you can afford. As for take profit, the principle is similar -- it will automatically close the order when the price target is reached, thereby locking in the profit. Therefore, taking profit will help you get out of the market immediately when the market price is right, so as to maximize your profits.
3Use reasonable leverage
By setting a wider and reasonable stop loss, smaller leverage will allow each trade to have more breathing room, thereby avoiding higher capital losses. High leverage will blow up your trading account faster when the market trend goes against your expectations, because a larger lot size will make you face higher losses.
4. Pay attention to important news
The market can change its trend at any time due to news or even rumors. Staying informed is key. All traders need to follow up all kinds of news throughout the trading hours. Let's say you realize that a news release will affect the direction of your position, but you're not sure which direction it will be. In such cases, you should provide maximum protection for the position you open (set stop loss, take profit, and in extreme cases, close the position before the release of the expected news).
5 Don’t Trade During Low Liquidity Hours
You need to be aware that illiquid trading instruments tend to have wider bid-ask spreads, higher volatility and, thus, higher risk for the trader. Therefore, trading in a cycle with little liquidity will face the possibility of high capital losses.
6 View multiple metrics
It is best to make your long/short decision based on several technical indicators. Indicators and other tools in technical analysis need to corroborate each other. Combine two or three different types of indicators. Your trading strategy can also rely on candlestick and trend chart patterns, as well as the use of golden section tools. In this way, the system will provide you with signals with a high probability of success. If you use such a strategy, combined with a stop loss and the correct risk/reward ratio, then you can avoid losing money in your trades.
7 Control Your Emotions
The most successful trading comes from confidence and calm. Your fear of losing money, or your desire to make money with your trading instruments in the precarious state of big news, can get in the way. Make sure you keep your emotions in check and use tools like stop loss and take profit orders to make objective trading decisions.
If it helps you, please like and follow.
EUR/HUF Some Wild Swings. Not for the Faint of HeartDid y'all see that yesterday. The EUR/HUF has a massive move lower for over 570 pips and I was able to catch that. I exited out of my position because I have been in the pair for a while now and think it is going to push higher. It is pushing higher now, so for now I am correct. But I think there might be a larger push higher. If this pair can hit 380 or higher, I'll likely get back in and start building up to a standard lot. The reason, the Technicals (monthly head and shoulders with price almost completing the head), Fundamentals (over 25% inflation, 13% interest rates, Hawkish NBH and the possibility of increasing rates), and sentiment (news, articles, thoughts, analysts are pointing to a stronger HUF) are all inline and providing support for each other. This strengthens the probability for price to move lower. This heightens my conviction in building larger positions on this pair as this might be an opportunity that I don't want to miss. Of course I am going to build my position in blocks and not just place one max position. I am thinking though, that the price might push higher because of the coming up ECB Rate Hike. But I am also skeptical that price will hit 380 (so, I might place an entry at 380.50). What would be good is to build a position above the 380, build a max position to have my average position above the 380, see price push to around 375 and place a stop at 380 (one can only dream). So now it's the waiting to see what price wants to do.
Oil is Ranging. So Where Will it break? Oil has been in a range towards the end of last year and price is fighting against pushing below the 75 lvl and staying below it. It makes sense as the news is mixed because there are positive and negative news for Oil. Check out the following:
Positives for Oil:
-China economy recovering and demand increasing
-Russia plans to cut Oil exports by 25% and cut oil production by 500,000 barrels
-EU ban on Russian Oil
-OPEC maintaining production cuts
-JP Morgan looking at $90 a barrel for Oil in the middle of the year
Negatives for Oil:
-to the FED increasing rates for the next three meetings
-a possible global recession as majority of the G7 nations increase rates
So, what will win out? The negatives or the positives. I am thinking Oil will be able to push higher in the short term (next few months) and eventually fall as interest rates push higher and higher. If inflation does not drop as fast the FED wants, it will need to crank up the the heat on inflation, by doing it through interest rates. In 2025, I think Oil is going to push back up to $100, maybe higher and if this does happen, it would be good if I am still in the GBP/CAD as price would likely be around 1.45. On a side note, there is a big push to renewable energies and electric vehicles, but this requires a lot of resources to produce on a massive scales and in the interim Oil will be needed. If this massive push does happen, in the beginning, Oil will increase exponentially until renewables take over. In the next couple years, lets see if I am correct:
-price by the end of the year $80
-price in the beginning of 2024 (first 6 months) $70 - $80 and end of 2024 (last 6 months) $95
-price in 2025 $100+ (I keep thinking production is going to go off the rails with what's going to come out and the new technology)
$SPY weekly tf TA, what's next? We are inside the weekly range and coming up on the prior high. DECISION TIME. What will SPY do next? Sellers need to come in here at the top of this range if there's any chance at shifting the trend (LH,LL,HH,HL). If bearish bias, I would consider the top of the range to be low risk . If price moves above the prior high, price has plenty of space to try taking out the 100% level. Which would give way to market shift from bearish to bullish. I personally will follow longer term trend (bearish) and take a lower risk position at the top of this range keeping prior high as my risk. If longer term bearish trend holds, I expect a lower high to be established here and for a lower low to follow.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Will the NZD/USD still be able hold above the 0.60 lvl?The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reinvoked the power of the interest rate hikes to continue the battle in bringing inflation down. This news push the USD near the 106 lvl and hit the NZD/USD, pulling price below the 0.61 lvl. This was a hit to my position, but I ok with the floating loss currently. In order to reduce my risk, I added a stop at 0.60 because my thought is, if price pushes below the 0.60 lvl and holds by the end of the week, then I don't think I wrong on my R/A on this pair; I am just early. What I am going to do if I do get stopped out, I would wait a few days, see if price is still pushing lower, and then start building my position again. My objective is to have a max position before price pushes above the 0.65 lvl, so getting into a position below the 0.60 lvl, I think is an opportunity. There is also the thought of waiting until the USD NFP and CPI are released and the FED Rate Hike, as this could push the NZD/USD even further down.
I do need to work on my conviction and hope lvl. My hope lvl is around 55% and my conviction lvl is less then 50%. Since that is the case, I am not going to add anymore positions unless I am able to get my conviction lvl to 60%. I am still thinking in the near to longer term, price on the NZD/USD will push higher, but these two - three weeks are going to cause a lot of volatility.
I have another previous published thought on the NZD utilizing the Monthly chart. I wanted to add the NZD/USD update on the daily chart also, in order to see the daily moves in the market and see if my plan pans out.
Again, this is what I am thinking of doing and I am ok with taking the risk. Conduct your own analysis and take on the risk that feels comfortable to you.
Y'all have some good trading out there.
Will Silver be able to hit and break the 20 levelThe FED is increasing rates higher and higher and it is looking like they will increase rates past 5%. The next increase comes in March and it will either be 25 basis points or 50. A 50 basis point increase will definitely push Silver below the 20 level. Inflation is still high across all major countries and it is a battle between Central Banks fighting inflation and winning, but potentially pushing their economy into recession. Which one is more important. Fighting inflation, but pushing the economy into a recession or keeping inflation high and possible pushing a recession further out. But my plan is to get into Silver once price pushes lower. The lower the better. If price can hit 18 or lower, that would be a big opportunity to get in. I think Silver will break above the 50 lvl in 2025 as I keep thinking it is going to be a big year for all these new technologies coming out (Space, Robotics, AI, Medical, so on).
Since the sentiment for the USD pushing higher is very strong, it is only inevitable for Silver to keep pushing lower. The lower it goes, maybe other countries, just like they have been doing with Gold, will start to buy it up in droves. But this is going to be around a two year play, maybe longer. So it is best to build up slowly and stay tuned for further developments in my plan.
MLFB. Can we get a Season this year or Is it all over?I've been in MLFB for a while, since around 2018/2019. MLFB attempted to establish a season in 2020/2021, but due to COVID, they were unable too. Here comes 2022, and things were looking good. They were bringing on players, coaches, bought equipment, named teams, hand a place for a camp, and had some coverage. Things again were looking good. Around June/July, the actual camp was commencing, and out of now where, MLFB could not pay their hotel bills and left players stranded. The season went out the window and the price of the stock tanked. Now in 2023, MLFB is attempting to start up a season. They were able to get about 5 million to pay bills from last year they owed and hopefully have enough to start a season. If this is the case, and they are able to start up again, will price be able to go higher? As time goes on, I'll see if price starts pushing to $0.01 and starts hitting its high of last year around $0.03. If there is some more press releases and actual broadcasting commencing, this will assist the stock pushing higher. There are some good things about MLFB, but they are not doing great in the PR department. But if MLFB can keep fighting to start a season and one actually commencing, there might be light at the end of the tunnel. I am in this stock, and this is only my thoughts. Make your own decisions and conduct your own research and analysis before deciding to get into any stocks. I'll revisit this later on and see what happens.
EUR/HUF A Hidden GemThe EUR/HUF is meeting all of my expectations on the Technicals, Fundamentals, and Sentiment. On the technicals, price is showing a head and shoulders patterns and price looks like it might be able to complete the head portion this year. The reason being is, on the fundamental side, the ECB is struggling to fight inflation, the National Hungarian Bank sticking to maintain the highest interest rates in the EU (at 13%), the NHB is not looking to loosen monetary policy, even if the Hungarian Governments wants them to, and inflation is extremely high at over 25%. Sentiment is very strong for the HUF, with a lot of articles in favor of the HUF. Also the EUR/HUF is a great carry trade, and with the possibility of the NBH possibly raising rates further, could push price down to my price target of 345.
My current Plan for EUR/USD, GBP/CAD, EUR/HUFThis is my plan for the next few Quarters. My main focus is on the EUR/USD. If price is able to hit the 1.05 level, I will need to decide if I want to place a stop at 1.06 and ride price lower, or exit at 1.05 and move my focus over to the GBP/CAD and EUR/HUF. I might place a tighter stop and see if price is able to maintain the momentum lower on the EUR/USD. The GBP/CAD, I do want to get into a 50k position before price pushes lower. I think this pair is going to take a while to push lower, but it is only a matter of time. If I am able to get into a max position on the GBP/CAD and have a stop at 1.60, my conviction will be strong is holding onto the pair until the 1.50 level. The EUR/HUF, again, I like the positive rollover interest, so if price ranges, I am fine with price doing that. If price does push lower, I may add to my positions, but I am just thinking about it for now. The GBP/CAD has negative rollover, so the EUR/HUF and EUR/USD with there positive rollover is offsetting the negative rollover on the GBP/CAD. If I am correct on the GBP/CAD and EUR/HUF, Silver is becoming extremely enticing to get into next, especially if price pushes below the 20 level. I think Silver will be able to hit the $50 level, but that will likely happen in 2025 because space, robotics, AI, medical, electric vehicles, and so on will require a ton of Silver, which is a better conductor than copper.
What I Do After I Lose A TradeI noticed I’m still in AUDNZD, which is in good profit. Price made a new high, and my first action was to move the trade to break even. At the same time, I noticed I lost a trade on NZDCHF which I set a pending order for this morning.
What I did next was a reaction to the loss. I immediately sought a trade on a currency pair that was not on my list.
Once I did that, I heard a voice saying, STOP DOING THAT!
This is a repeated action I do when I lose a trade. Instead of feeling the loss, I try to medicate it by looking for something else to do.
As soon as I realized this, I wrote that down as a limiting belief and then wrote down what I believe about the market.
Limiting Belief: Losing a trade makes me feel like I need to look for a trade on another pair to make my money back.
Action to take: take a slight loss. It’s better than letting a losing trade run.
Belief: Small losses tell you the price has reversed and to be patient to wait for the following setup on the same currency pair.
Belief: The market changes. I have to adapt quickly because the price movement will change, which means every trade is unique.
Belief: Make trading a fun puzzle to figure out. It will become overwhelming if I work on too many puzzles simultaneously.
What I noticed last was how I felt. Usually, I feel a tight pinch in my chest before I get on my charts. Its anxiety. I didn’t feel it this morning. I felt relaxed.
After dealing with years of anxiety I can feel it decreasing the more I write out my thoughts and beliefs and see how they are what I trade.
Experiencing today's lose I had no feeling just a reaction I will work hard to not do again.
What reactions do you have when you lose a trade. What are thoughts and feelings? If negative what can you now begin doing that will help you adapt to price movement with a clear mind and well thought out actions?
If you found value in this shared moment of my trading journey please like this post and comment. You're not alone in this trading world. Let's talk it out.
How you trade impacts how you feel 😀It's no secret that managing your trading psychology is the biggest challenge in your trading journey.
Some say it counts for 80%+ of what's needed to be successful.
I totally agree...
However, there's a key factor in this for me.
How you actually trade to start with!
Correct trading psychology starts by realising you need a strategy.
If you're guessing with no real plan or risk management surely you're going to be more stressed and overwhelmed than a trader who has a plan, has the data to support his strategy and manages his risk?
So once you get your system/strategy nailed on, this in turn will help manage your fear.
Greed is another factor, but this comes from your expectation.
Expectations and reality need to be aligned with one another.
Your expectations can come from your data and your testing.
But if you've skipped this step you'll be chasing unrealistic expectations.
Not just in terms of % gains, but in understanding your drawdown periods too.
So in summary both are completely related. You give me a trader that's really struggling with his trading mindset and fear and within a month they won't be feeling the same way.
Likewise, if give me a trader who is calm and in tune with his system and emotions, we'll quickly change this by getting him to trade randomly!
No trading psychology means no trading strategy, No trading strategy means no trading psychology. These two elements are so intertwined.
Thanks for looking at my idea.
Darren 👍
Gold Intraday Long Structure & Plan Some structure and context for potential intraday longs through next week.
- Multi time frame large candle origin points
- Linear regression channel (anchored to highs and lows I'm interested in)
- High and low of valid range
- Squeeze bar color and mean reversion channel from a personal script
- Volume profile for refined targets, and likely zones of infuriating sideways price sewage I wish to avoid
- No banana for scale forecast line toward the high point of interest that would, if broken, send a signal that an intermediate term up trend might be trimming its mustache for an possible appearance
DOT TA - Short term Trade HIGH Risk Reward Ratio 2h timeframeI opened a Long just few minutes ago. Let's see what will happen 🚀. Just remember: Stick to your plan and have a good risk management 👍
And that's the main reasons I decided to take a long on SOL :
► Bounce from the 0.618 fib level
► Retrace from the support line (yellow)
► Confirmation on the breakout (yellos)
► Momentum is shifting up
► High risk reward ratio
Trading setup:
Entry: $9.49
SL: 9.2
TP1: $10.59 (60% of position)
TP2: $11.8
⚡Just to notice. We are right now in a very volatile market phase in the crypto. Crazy and unpredictable things could happen. That's why you should use a stopp loss. ⚡
Disclaimer: DYOR. No financial advice. Just for your impression.
No Strength In Bulls | More Supply Than Demand & Extreme FearThe bulls are getting Week & I can't see much strength in the bulls. Bulls have to show strength otherwise we may test 30k Zoon or can go Even Below.
Fear & Greed Index is also dropped below 20. At this stage, I can see extreme supply is hitting on the bids side & bulls are getting weaker and weaker.
It's just a medium-term overview of the market. I will not enter the market until I see bulls reclaiming control.
My ONE Line Suggesting is :
Don't try to predict the bottom & never try to catch a falling knife.
Gold increased strongly after news but still haven't broken Key After the FOMC news at 1am today, we witnessed a strong increase in gold. This scenario was also contemplated in my previous plan. And because the price structure has changed after the strong news, I will make some new comments for the next gold plan:
- About the basic information: the FOMC meeting last night marked the first time in the history of the Fed that interest rates increased, but gold increased, BTC increased as well as stocks and energy increased strongly after the announcement. The market explained that the news of a 50-point interest rate hike appeared last month and the market has digested it. The prediction of an increase of 75 points was a new expectation before the meeting was rejected by the Fed, so the market had a spectacular reversal phase. Once again, the information is logically made to rationalize the confusing things of the market. And as we can see, the main trend of information is currently supporting the uptrend of gold: from high inflation in oil and raw materials prices or escalating war and now announcing interest rate hikes ahead of time. The barrier has also been broken
- Regarding technical analysis: the thing to note here is that the price line has not completely broken from the key level 1900-1910 to return to an uptrend structure, maybe it will break into the US session but "trade what you see not you" think" what actually did not support the plan to buy gold in this area. In my personal experience, I am still fully qualified to wait for a set up sell if there is a support structure, however, I should only short TP when the price finds the support below. If we want to buy, we can completely wait for the price to break through the key and return to set up then it will be much safer, anyway, the market always has a lot of opportunities.
Wish everyone a favorable trading day
If my idea is useful, please give me 1 like 1 follow
Any questions or requests to analyze other trading pairs, please leave a comment ^^
Why do traders mostly lose? Point of viewFor 3-5 minutes while going through this forget what you know about trading.
First thing is : Let's remember our goal, every successful action/plan started with a clear goal that led the way:
In our case it's profit
When starting to trade seeing the numbers go up and down plays with your head and emotion quickly tempting you with the unlimited potential at your fingertips.
Even experienced traders that had some lucky streaks forget that the wanted end result is simple - to be in the money, meaning, making profits consistently.
In order to secure our goal of making profit we need to first start with remembering this is not a 'get rich quick' scheme and there is no magic - A big bunch of money won't fall on your head out of nowhere, at least not consistently.
Now - remember this : It's a lot better to be consistently profitable than to have a series of a few winning streaks .
With this in mind, it's great if you would put up a sticky note on your screen reminding this - As at times it gets hard keeping sight when numbers run wild.
I see many traders look at between 5-10 crypto currencies, 3 commodities and 10 currency pairs - Deciding based on a variety of different things what to trade on every time.
This way of action has no structure at all - Which makes it very hard to reach a certain target: profit.
It is necessary to have focus, structure and a plan with a single minded mission: PROFIT.
But not just any profit - smart profit, a profit that was a result of planned action.
So how do you make a plan?
The easiest way to effectively craft a well thought out plan is to focus on between 2 to max 3 instruments
Learning the range, price action and tendencies of 2-3 instruments can be done within a few weeks going through 1h, 4h and weekly time-frames and determining the short-term and long-term projections of each of the 2-3 instruments.
Once you start seeing the patterns and understanding the price action continue by implementing what you learned on the instruments on a demo account testing a possible strategy that relies on clear idea of what to do with every possible scenario.
You may not get it right with the first strategy, so try others until you find one that shows consistent results - while mastering the 2-3 instruments you have chosen and continuing to following up on a daily basis on relevant news, changes in trends on short-term and long-term projections.
For me - Because I've dedicated years trading and following Gold and WTI , learning how and why it moves - I prefer trading a swing trading strategy, keeping trades open between 3 days to 2 weeks usually, this puts my bigger picture understanding of the instruments into true effect
The difficulties you will find while searching for your strategy are -
*Greed
*Fear
*Lack of patience
*Lack of discipline in plan
Don't let them in - Remember your plan and one and only goal : consistent profit!
Thank you for reading,
Let me know what you think and what you would like to hear more about :D
Possible US Dollar making all time highs!DXY
SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
SMP Strategy
Market Direction: Long Position
Chart time frame - MONTHLY
Timeframe - 6 Months
You will see a very strong USD move to the north which will drive down commodity levels, Metals and the crypto market. This may last for 6 months so hold on!!
Plenty of opportunities in the second half of this year!
Whilst the dollar gains strength this may spook the market creating a strength in the gold and silver market so keep an eye out for the bounce!
Post Quantitive easing 1 through to 4 in the U.S there has always been a strong bull market roughly 13 months after the start of the easing programs. This will give you a rough indication on when to expect the next bull run for the index.
If the dollar does get to the projected all time highs this may cause the market to collapse.
A – Activating Event
Market will meet support in zone @ current levels - ... . In order to enter into this trade, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure....
B – Beliefs
Market will move towards the first Target 1 level @ 125.00
C - Fundamentals that may affect the pair
N/A
D - Trade Management
Entered @ 92.8
Stop Loss @ .....
Trailing Stop Loss@.....
Target 1 @ 125.00
Target 2 @ ....
Risk/Reward @ 1.7
Happy trading :)
Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and Keep learning !!
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This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!