Platinum has just broken a 12 year downtrendA 12 year downtrend in platinum has just been broken. Initial targets are $1300 per oz and we will then take a view once this has been met.
Platinum
Clear as Day: Gold Set to Continue RisingAs I always tell people, watch the seniors and you will have a premonition on the upcoming movement of Gold.
Many leveraged funds and senior stocks are currently forming an elongated cup, and just coming off a handle in many cases. Expect a rest for Gold slightly, as we move our way to 1580, and in about a months time (around March) Gold should be near 1700.
Please see some of my other ideas to follow my reasoning and analysis.
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Last Leg of Equity Bubble (12-24mo); Palladium Bubble to Roar For those that follow my ideas, there is no question we are in the last leg of the equity bubble before an extended bear market. The catch 101 however is, any pullback that occurs will be bought until the SPX hits a minimum of 4000.
I see an equity bear market commencing anytime from late 2021 to sometime in early 2022 for several years (impossible to know when specifically)
Having said that, Palladium has essentially confirmed the equity bubble that will last anywhere from 12-24 months from the writing of this post. We can clearly see that Palladium must touch the upper longitudinal linear axis. Of course when it does this exactly will determine the eventual top, however, Palladium will indeed hit a minimum of 4000 as a top, however, it cannot be ruled out that 5000 or even 6000 is possible over the next 24 months or less.
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Waterberg Project is Advancing: Is it PTM's Time?PTM now seems like a promising investment for one of the first times in a long-time. With Palladium soaring into parabolic levels and Platinum on the up-and-up, the Waterberg project, that PTM is focused on advancing, is slowly moving forward.
This serves as a long-term investment as the company doesn't expect production to commence until roughly 2024, however, as long as positive news continues between now and then, the stock should propel forward. With Palladium highly correlated to the SPX, and with likely a strong bull market continuing for all of 2020 and at-least some of 2021, this could propel Palladium to 3000 or more and push this stock up for speculative reasons.
This represents one of the first positive EPS earnings results in a while and as a result, the stock has broken its long consolidated resistances where it could continue to propel higher due Palladium's price-tag.
While this stock has had quite a few sharp moves to the upside in the past and faded, this time it could represent a different outcome as it has been moving higher prior to earnings and created higher lows; it has also broken an extended cup resistance dated back since spring of 2018.
Once this project commences it represents one of the most lucrative reserves of Palladium and Platinum in the world. Definitely a stock to throw a small piece of your money in and hold it for years to come.
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Other notes:
- Trading volume has been increasing significantly on the TSX
- Trading volume has significantly increased over the NYSE
- Hefty after-market volume
PLATINUM VIEWPOINT (AS REQUESTED)HERE IS MY VIEWPOINT ON ON PLATINUM. PRICE IS CURRENTLY SAT IN A VERY WELL RESPECTED RESISTANCE ZONE ON DAILY/WEEKLY TIME FRAME SO I'D EXPECT SOME SORT OF PULLBACK FROM THIS ZONE TO THE PREVIOUS STRUCTURAL RESISTANCE WHICH WILL NOW BECOME SUPPORT AND THEN CONTINUE TANKING UPWARDS, ALTERNATIVELY IT WILL BREAK THROUGH THE CURRENT ZONE AND GO STRAIGHT UP TO TARGET (COULD GO LONG ON BREAK OF AREA IF THIS HAPPENS AND PUT SL BELOW HIGHLIGHTED ZONE) AS MY VIEWPOINT IS RESOURCES WILL GO UP IN VALUE (I.E. GOLD, OIL ETC.) THIS COULD ALSO BE A VERY LIKELY OPTION. I HAVE MARKED AN IDEAL ENTRY POINT WITH SL AND TP ZONE MARKED ON THE CHART, OPPORTUNITY IS A GREAT RR SETUP FOR BOTH OPTIONS SO HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING WEEK AS PLATINUM WAITS FOR NOBODY.
Weekly Anti Alt SharkLooking at this metals as a market hedge for later in the year. Confluence for temporary bounce off 3.50 level, i like under 3.00 level better for longs.
Stock took a hit in 2017 with Stillwater acquisition and share dilution. Forward EPS is 3.4, Debt/Equity 1.03.
Palladium Rockets: What to Expect, Why and How I Call it NowI ended up being one of the most bullish investors with respect to Palladium for 2020 but even I was a little wrong! Many people called Palladium tanking in 2020 with 2000.00 being the absolute peak. Nope! My forecast was 2500 but I have revised the outlook, and here's why.
While most Palladium mines are in South Africa (which I already knew in my previous forecast), it turns out that there has been some power issues due to weather (impossible to predict ahead of time), and this will artificially increase Palladium significantly in 2020; it has soared nearly 28% YTD which equates to one of the top assets thus far in the entire stock market. Now, this may or may not be pure manipulation to drive the price up, but in reality, all that matters is the price is going up.
Secondly, it seems there has been an absurdly high interest level from China, India and other parts of Asia for Palladium. It could be that they are using the metal for electric vehicle production, or stockpiling it for future production.
Nonetheless, and interestingly enough, Palladium and the S&P 500 are highly correlated, and I accurately called that 2020 will be very bullish overall for the markets, and as such, Palladium will continue to rise.
Palladium could have a violent pullback of 5%+ when the SPX decides to correct just a little bit (doesn't have to be some epic correction), but the dips will be bought in both cases.
Palladium will likely consolidate with some gains but much lesser gains through 2021, before the run corrects more drastically sometime in or around the year of 2022.
Some top stocks to invest for 2020 PTMs: IMPALA Platinum (follows Platinum mostly, and a little Palladium) || PTM (junior Palladium miner that focuses on Palladium mostly and other PTMs).
TP 2020 (not necessarily by year-end): 2800-3000+
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Platinum: 12 Year TriangleDoes the descending triangle complete with the traditional breakdown?
Or does it bounce higher?
Short Platinum @ 1,017; TP @ 960.15, SL your choiceShort Platinum @ 1,017; TP @ 960.15, SL your choice
Platinum: Time to Buy?I think no.
Price is currently consolidating around the $1017 level after breaking the $998 strong resistance.
$1017 is now a stronger resistance. Platinum broke it in June 2016 and tried to recover it at least four times with no success.
My view is a retracement to the EMA 50 level.
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Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.
Platinum (XPTUSD): Quick Update. Getting closer to our Target.Platinum is approaching our medium term Target Zone of 1,020 - 1,040 as we posted on this idea in late October:
As the moment, the current 1D Channel Up (RSI = 66.576, MACD = 14.780, ADX = 30.519, Highs/Lows = 23.68000) has just broken above the Higher High trend line again in a move that strongly resembles the late July/ early August break out. That Channel Up was supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend line) and on a similar RSI action as today's broke to the upside aggressively to form a market top near 1,000.
We assume that as long as the 1D MA50 supports the uptrend, XPTUSD will aggressively break into our Target Zone.
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XPTUSD 1D ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUT LONG TRADEPlatinum Ascending Triangle Breakout Long Trade
Ascending Triangles are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Ascending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
Platinum bullish breakout 2020Based on the price action, this could be one of the best years for platinum since 2007. A break of the confirmed downtrend line and close above it and 200SMA. For extra confirmation, waiting for the close above the $1000 level.
This could be a great long term trade for 2020, targeting $1700 at 61.8% fib level.
Commodities are very bullish at the moment due to brewing conflict between USA and Iran and there seems to be a real threat of war in the air. Investors will seek commodities as safe havens in case of full military action. Not the best start of the new decade...
Good Luck!
US 10YR: Will Fall to Record Lows in 2020 Before Rising in 2022The recent rising wedge we saw since the bottom in around September has broken down and will continue to break-down as we move through mid 2020. In the shorter-term, yields will fall faster than people think. In my opinion, US data has certainly not "bottomed" yet and will continue to weaken enough to provide further rate cuts in 2020 despite what the Fed 'wants'.
Domestic manufacturing continues to be dreadful in the US.
The combination of geopolitical issues involving the US, weaker/weakening domestic US data and a weak DXY in 2020 will send the 10 year to at-least 1.464 re-test, a reasonable potential of testing 1.375 and likely could challenge 1.200. In fact, one cannot rule the possibly of a 10 year around 1.000 by late 2020 or sometime in 2021.
I do not forecast a stock market 'crash' as a result of a recession until at-least mid to late 2021 (but likely closer to, or in 2022), and as such, yields could continue to weaken tremendously until 2022. Once the recession hits, the bubble for the bond market will burst and people will lose total faith in governmental treasuries (hence, yields rising).
As I have stated for 6 months, look for big moves in oil and precious metals this year again, but look for parabolic moves sometime in 2021 into 2022 and beyond. You have already started to see this, and therefore, my predictions have been correct.
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SPX: Be Careful Shorting in 2020; What to Expect OverallIn this idea I'm going to explain why for those who are hoping for some big crash in 2020 won't see it and what to expect in 2020.
Firstly, to begin, let me say that the recent issues between US-Iran is short-term noise. A pullback was bound to happen early in 2020 and it just-so-happens this was the trigger to cause it. This will not impact the long-term 2020 sentiment of the market even if the market drops another 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5%. Generally this will be an excuse for precious metals to form a new base, and for oil to remain elevated for the entire year.
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One of the most prominent reasons the crash won't happen in 2020 is based on monetary and fiscal policy around the world. Central banks around the world are incredibly supportive of easing and money-printing at current time. This will continue to push markets higher for the next 12+ months (overall) until interest rates are too low to reduce and/or when monetary money printing loses its high. Will there be pull-backs and corrections? Yes, but these will be bought in-time.
Secondly, often times as the economy is in a weakening stage around the world this is bullish for stocks even though it is incredibly counter-intuitive. Why? If the economy shows signs of strengthening, investors and big whales believe this means rates may rise, but on the flip-side if economic data weakens drastically, that gives the sign that some big recession is near. Economic data will indeed weaken (again) by mid 2020 (and yes, yields will fall significantly again), however, it will remain afloat enough for big whales to continue to push markets higher.
Thirdly, on a technical level, the end goal of the SPX is roughly near 4000 which represents the highest peak on the longitudinal channel based on EW theory. The key is when do we get to the 4000 level? The answer is it seems that sometime in 2021 is the most prominent bet based on micro/macro-economics, technical analysis and pure logic. Therefore, as we move closer to 2021 and through 2021 investors should monitor their portfolios very carefully.
Fourthly, put simply, is Trump. Trump has done a remarkable ability to manipulate the market for algo-bots to buy off of. 2020 will be yet another year of more trade deal talks and hype around future phases. This will continue to work in 2020 before too weak of economic data and the top region of the longitudinal channel outweigh the manipulation as stated above.
In reality, 4000 seems like a super-high level but in reality it represents only an 18-19% gain from where we are at the time of writing.
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In 2020 the way you want to hedge equities during any correction or pullback is through precious metals not by holding shorts. Contrary to what any naysayer believes, precious metals are on the verge of a historic and parabolic run for the next 4 or 5 years. 2019 was the beginning of the run, 2020 will see slightly more upside than 2019 (especially for Silver and Platinum), and the run will really start to move in 2021.
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Top sectors to buy for 2020 --
1) Energy stocks : be patient as it will take 1-2 months of oil above 60 for money to flow into the sector - this will happen so be patient. Oil will rise steadily this year and many people have been shorting it to death and likely blew their accounts wide open. 68 is in the books for oil; 76 is also in the books in-time. If there is any Middle East tension oil could reach 90 or higher.
2) US tech : certain companies like Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Facebook, Baba, Bidu and so forth will have an excellent year. Look for Amazon to break-out; Apples run to continue and Facebook to be the dark-horse of the tech sector where 40-50% gain is possible this year.
3) Precious Metals : if you haven't invested in metals in 2019 you want to make sure you buy on pullbacks in 2020 - make sure you don't neglect Platinum!
Look for many Chinese stocks to have a solid year.
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Platinum struggles with $1000 levelI've been watching the $1000 level in #platinum since the Sept blow-off. This morning we ticked that level, plus the top of the channel, and we are getting a hard rejection (shooting star candle so far). Big supply area. Needs a hard break above $1000 before next big move. $PL
JNUG: Bye Bears: JNUG to $130.00What I called back in mid November has came to fruition:
Gold is finally gearing up for its 'true bull run'. What we saw this year was a premature run based off USA-China trade, however now, we will start to see the real bull in the making.
A re-test of 155-1560 is very likely before between late January and early February with new multiple year records thereafter.
2020 will be a fantastic year for Gold, Silver and Platinum.
Don't forget about Platinum! PPLT (etf: bullion) and Impala Platinum (IMPUY) are the top Platinum picks.
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Platinum About to Rock out with its This could be the push I have been waiting for since we last tapped 1000. Platinum is mainly used for catalytic converters in electric cars. My Nio calls doubled so maybe this will too.
What a bottom looks like: PlatinumThe analysis above builds a case for justifying a developing bottom in platinum prices. Based on its price history, platinum prices are likely to breakout in 2020.
PLATINUM Golden CrossRecently platinum has broken the downtrend, and made a nice upward move setting up this golden cross on the weekly chart, its as simple as that.. upsides can be expected as a result of this. Happy New Year from Australia :D
