Platinum (XPTUSD): $1,040 Target reached. Expecting a pull back.XPTUSD reached our 1,040 Target on our long since October 31st, 2019 as seen on the buy call below:
The 1M Bullish Megaphone since September 2018 is still holding (RSI = 57.612, MACD = 6.190, ADX = 38.381, Highs/Lows = 74.3178) and in fact the 1,040 top was its Higher High as seen on the chart. We are now expecting its technical pull back which based on the previous 3 occasions should be within -11% to -14%. As a result this puts the Target Zone within 925 - 895. Note: see how harmonic the RSI sequences are both on the bullish and bearish legs of the Megaphone alike.
This short term pull back doesn't mean that we have turned bearish on Platinum. Our portfolio still holds long term buy positions and we have illustrated our long term bullish sentiment on the idea below:
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Platinum
Gold is Nearing a Sharp Rise Upwards in February/MarchHighlights
- GDXJ to 50.00 or higher by March
- Yields to make new record lows in 2020
- DXY to rise slightly in Q1 to early Q2 of 2020 and fall sharply mid to late year
- Gold to hit 1700+ in March; Silver to hit 21.50+ in March
- Gold to reach 1900+ by year-end; Silver to hit 24+ by year-end
- Gold stocks to outperform every sector in the equity market when averaged over 2019-2023 when the time comes
As I have been touting for quite some time, Gold finished its major correction back in November and has increasingly been gaining considerable momentum since early November. Only up until recently has Gold entered the next phase in its run. Since early January we have formed slight upside but mainly consolidation; this will end shortly and the next leg higher will show face.
Gold will run to 1700 or higher by March or sometime in March as I have held consistent on for over a month. With an overbought equity market and concern over the coronavirus, this may cause a sharp rise in Gold, Silver and Platinum that I have been referring to. This may also bring the much needed "rest" for Palladium and bring about a 5% correction depend on earnings and monetary policy in the coming weeks.
Now is the time to buy Gold and Silver.
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GOLDEN CROSS - 50 DAY MA CROSSING 100 DAY MA - BULLISHWe do not play gold stocks. So here's a tip for everyone.
Today, Barrick popped up on one of the scans we run.
On the daily chart, the 50 Day MA is crossing up and over the 100 Day MA.
PMO, MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all BULLISH - (In an uptrend)
For anyone interested, here you go!
Best of luck with your trades!
Silver: Mirroring July; Over $20 in March: Prepare for it!At current time, both Silver and Gold are in mid-cycle consolidations (not corrections) and it is highly improbable that the current key levels/values (~1550 for Gold and around 17.65-17.75 for Silver) fails to hold. Any deviation from these values will be bought and the price will bounce towards these ranges as we gear up for the next leg higher. This has been the case several times already.
Technical analysis points to Gold reaching 1700+ sometime in March, with Silver reaching 21+ in the similar time-frame.
Dating back to December, I forecasted this run-up for JNUG and USLV (Gold and Silver respectively) and this pattern still holds true.
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XPT SUPER SWING BUYOn the Weekly timeframe, this pair was on a descending trend, but the past year start making Higher Highs and Higher Lows, forming an ascending channel. the past days broke that descending trend line and the top of the ascending channel, made a retest of that lines and a resistance zone. Right now the price is bouncing on a strong resistance, but i think that got the strenght to broke that resistance, beacuse we got more confirmations to go long. To enter on a super swing trade we will wait to a close of the mentioned resistance zone, and wait for a formation of corrective structure on a lower timeframe to get the full confirmations that the price is going up.
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Platinum - Palladium Ratio at All-Time Lows and BottomingThis commodity ratio cannot go to zero and its the closest to zero it has ever been.
This ratio has likely not hit its bottom just yet but this is a strategic time to be building exposure to platinum and reducing exposure to palladium.
Even with platinum having broken out of major resistance in the first two weeks of 2020, palladium may still have room to go higher which can continue to push the ratio lower in the short & medium-term, but long-term this is an extremely strong accumulation zone.
Look closely at the last time the platinum - palladium ratio was this low. Look at the bottom it formed when palladium topped out in 2000 and platinum bottomed out. Look how effectively the trendlines were respected.
Those watching this sector closely and that have the patience to invest during these quiet times will be handsomely rewarded.
Clear as Day: Gold Set to Continue RisingAs I always tell people, watch the seniors and you will have a premonition on the upcoming movement of Gold.
Many leveraged funds and senior stocks are currently forming an elongated cup, and just coming off a handle in many cases. Expect a rest for Gold slightly, as we move our way to 1580, and in about a months time (around March) Gold should be near 1700.
Please see some of my other ideas to follow my reasoning and analysis.
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Last Leg of Equity Bubble (12-24mo); Palladium Bubble to Roar For those that follow my ideas, there is no question we are in the last leg of the equity bubble before an extended bear market. The catch 101 however is, any pullback that occurs will be bought until the SPX hits a minimum of 4000.
I see an equity bear market commencing anytime from late 2021 to sometime in early 2022 for several years (impossible to know when specifically)
Having said that, Palladium has essentially confirmed the equity bubble that will last anywhere from 12-24 months from the writing of this post. We can clearly see that Palladium must touch the upper longitudinal linear axis. Of course when it does this exactly will determine the eventual top, however, Palladium will indeed hit a minimum of 4000 as a top, however, it cannot be ruled out that 5000 or even 6000 is possible over the next 24 months or less.
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Waterberg Project is Advancing: Is it PTM's Time?PTM now seems like a promising investment for one of the first times in a long-time. With Palladium soaring into parabolic levels and Platinum on the up-and-up, the Waterberg project, that PTM is focused on advancing, is slowly moving forward.
This serves as a long-term investment as the company doesn't expect production to commence until roughly 2024, however, as long as positive news continues between now and then, the stock should propel forward. With Palladium highly correlated to the SPX, and with likely a strong bull market continuing for all of 2020 and at-least some of 2021, this could propel Palladium to 3000 or more and push this stock up for speculative reasons.
This represents one of the first positive EPS earnings results in a while and as a result, the stock has broken its long consolidated resistances where it could continue to propel higher due Palladium's price-tag.
While this stock has had quite a few sharp moves to the upside in the past and faded, this time it could represent a different outcome as it has been moving higher prior to earnings and created higher lows; it has also broken an extended cup resistance dated back since spring of 2018.
Once this project commences it represents one of the most lucrative reserves of Palladium and Platinum in the world. Definitely a stock to throw a small piece of your money in and hold it for years to come.
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Other notes:
- Trading volume has been increasing significantly on the TSX
- Trading volume has significantly increased over the NYSE
- Hefty after-market volume
PLATINUM VIEWPOINT (AS REQUESTED)HERE IS MY VIEWPOINT ON ON PLATINUM. PRICE IS CURRENTLY SAT IN A VERY WELL RESPECTED RESISTANCE ZONE ON DAILY/WEEKLY TIME FRAME SO I'D EXPECT SOME SORT OF PULLBACK FROM THIS ZONE TO THE PREVIOUS STRUCTURAL RESISTANCE WHICH WILL NOW BECOME SUPPORT AND THEN CONTINUE TANKING UPWARDS, ALTERNATIVELY IT WILL BREAK THROUGH THE CURRENT ZONE AND GO STRAIGHT UP TO TARGET (COULD GO LONG ON BREAK OF AREA IF THIS HAPPENS AND PUT SL BELOW HIGHLIGHTED ZONE) AS MY VIEWPOINT IS RESOURCES WILL GO UP IN VALUE (I.E. GOLD, OIL ETC.) THIS COULD ALSO BE A VERY LIKELY OPTION. I HAVE MARKED AN IDEAL ENTRY POINT WITH SL AND TP ZONE MARKED ON THE CHART, OPPORTUNITY IS A GREAT RR SETUP FOR BOTH OPTIONS SO HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS IN THE COMING WEEK AS PLATINUM WAITS FOR NOBODY.
Weekly Anti Alt SharkLooking at this metals as a market hedge for later in the year. Confluence for temporary bounce off 3.50 level, i like under 3.00 level better for longs.
Stock took a hit in 2017 with Stillwater acquisition and share dilution. Forward EPS is 3.4, Debt/Equity 1.03.
Palladium Rockets: What to Expect, Why and How I Call it NowI ended up being one of the most bullish investors with respect to Palladium for 2020 but even I was a little wrong! Many people called Palladium tanking in 2020 with 2000.00 being the absolute peak. Nope! My forecast was 2500 but I have revised the outlook, and here's why.
While most Palladium mines are in South Africa (which I already knew in my previous forecast), it turns out that there has been some power issues due to weather (impossible to predict ahead of time), and this will artificially increase Palladium significantly in 2020; it has soared nearly 28% YTD which equates to one of the top assets thus far in the entire stock market. Now, this may or may not be pure manipulation to drive the price up, but in reality, all that matters is the price is going up.
Secondly, it seems there has been an absurdly high interest level from China, India and other parts of Asia for Palladium. It could be that they are using the metal for electric vehicle production, or stockpiling it for future production.
Nonetheless, and interestingly enough, Palladium and the S&P 500 are highly correlated, and I accurately called that 2020 will be very bullish overall for the markets, and as such, Palladium will continue to rise.
Palladium could have a violent pullback of 5%+ when the SPX decides to correct just a little bit (doesn't have to be some epic correction), but the dips will be bought in both cases.
Palladium will likely consolidate with some gains but much lesser gains through 2021, before the run corrects more drastically sometime in or around the year of 2022.
Some top stocks to invest for 2020 PTMs: IMPALA Platinum (follows Platinum mostly, and a little Palladium) || PTM (junior Palladium miner that focuses on Palladium mostly and other PTMs).
TP 2020 (not necessarily by year-end): 2800-3000+
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Platinum: Time to Buy?I think no.
Price is currently consolidating around the $1017 level after breaking the $998 strong resistance.
$1017 is now a stronger resistance. Platinum broke it in June 2016 and tried to recover it at least four times with no success.
My view is a retracement to the EMA 50 level.
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Disclosure: My ideas contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor.
Platinum (XPTUSD): Quick Update. Getting closer to our Target.Platinum is approaching our medium term Target Zone of 1,020 - 1,040 as we posted on this idea in late October:
As the moment, the current 1D Channel Up (RSI = 66.576, MACD = 14.780, ADX = 30.519, Highs/Lows = 23.68000) has just broken above the Higher High trend line again in a move that strongly resembles the late July/ early August break out. That Channel Up was supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend line) and on a similar RSI action as today's broke to the upside aggressively to form a market top near 1,000.
We assume that as long as the 1D MA50 supports the uptrend, XPTUSD will aggressively break into our Target Zone.
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XPTUSD 1D ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUT LONG TRADEPlatinum Ascending Triangle Breakout Long Trade
Ascending Triangles are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Ascending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
Platinum bullish breakout 2020Based on the price action, this could be one of the best years for platinum since 2007. A break of the confirmed downtrend line and close above it and 200SMA. For extra confirmation, waiting for the close above the $1000 level.
This could be a great long term trade for 2020, targeting $1700 at 61.8% fib level.
Commodities are very bullish at the moment due to brewing conflict between USA and Iran and there seems to be a real threat of war in the air. Investors will seek commodities as safe havens in case of full military action. Not the best start of the new decade...
Good Luck!
US 10YR: Will Fall to Record Lows in 2020 Before Rising in 2022The recent rising wedge we saw since the bottom in around September has broken down and will continue to break-down as we move through mid 2020. In the shorter-term, yields will fall faster than people think. In my opinion, US data has certainly not "bottomed" yet and will continue to weaken enough to provide further rate cuts in 2020 despite what the Fed 'wants'.
Domestic manufacturing continues to be dreadful in the US.
The combination of geopolitical issues involving the US, weaker/weakening domestic US data and a weak DXY in 2020 will send the 10 year to at-least 1.464 re-test, a reasonable potential of testing 1.375 and likely could challenge 1.200. In fact, one cannot rule the possibly of a 10 year around 1.000 by late 2020 or sometime in 2021.
I do not forecast a stock market 'crash' as a result of a recession until at-least mid to late 2021 (but likely closer to, or in 2022), and as such, yields could continue to weaken tremendously until 2022. Once the recession hits, the bubble for the bond market will burst and people will lose total faith in governmental treasuries (hence, yields rising).
As I have stated for 6 months, look for big moves in oil and precious metals this year again, but look for parabolic moves sometime in 2021 into 2022 and beyond. You have already started to see this, and therefore, my predictions have been correct.
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