Trading the Coming Pop in CommoditiesI don’t think its a coincidence that commodities across the board are looking bullish at exactly the same time as the economy is slowing down and the Fed is quietly conducting QE4. Fed bought twice as many bonds this month than their monthly total during QE3. October rate cut odds are at 90%.
I don’t think inflation is going to explode tomorrow but I do think its coming. When the Fed launches their new QE program that will be larger than the first 3 QE’s combined, inflation will definitely tick up.
DBC is not a long term hold due to decay, but it is a good way to trade commodities. I’m researching individual commodity companies to get maximum leverage during this next bull market.
Go take a look at natural gas, soybeans, corn, copper, platinum, silver. They all look ready to take off. The CRB index also looks ready to take off.
The relative strength index shows that commodities have strong support and are gearing up for a bull trend.
Platinum
XPTUSD WE ARE STALKING YOU!AFTER A RECENT 500+ PIP TRADE WE HAD ON 12.11.2019, HERE IS MY PERSPECTIVE ON PLATINUM. I AM LOOKING TO TAKE ANOTHER ENTRY TO GO LONG. I HAVE BASED MY BIAS OF A WEEKLY/DAILY VIEWPOINT AS THAT IS WHAT I FIND WORKS WITH THIS PAIR. THE THREE LEVELS PLACED ARE THE MOST WELL RESPECTED RESISTANCE ZONES. PRICE IS CURRENTLY IN ONE OF THOSE LEVELS SO SHOULD SEE THE PULLBACK WE NEED TO EXECUTE THIS IDEA. TO VALIDATE THIS SETUP I WILL BE LOOKING FOR IT TO FOLLOW THE BLACK ARROWS ON THE CHART AND THEN GET PRICE ACTION CONFIRMATION ON 4HR CHART OR HIGHER. LETS SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
The Market is Severely Underestimating Inflation ExpectationsThe Repo market is proof that something is wrong with the system. It's an unsustainable system. Rates need to stay low and money needs to be printed in order to sustain this bubble - eventually this will create an intolerable amount of inflation.
As the market realizes that QE isn't temporary, that it is permanent until inflation is out of control, then inflation expectations will shift as people move into hard assets. While everyone's still talking about overpriced SPX and NDX, I'm bargain hunting in the metals market
Platinum is insanely cheap and looks poised for a surge. Platinum follows gold. Gold is broken out and headed towards $1700
Platinum Long Trade IdeaPlatinum price is severely depressed recently, especially if compared to its peer Gold. At current level below 800$ per ounce there is opportunity for very favorable risk/reward trade. My goal is 1000$ target which is 25% gain from the current level and can happen easily withing couple of months. More long term investors can keep their positions for 3-5 years with much higher targets. Even 2000$ is not impossible with more wide horizon.
Opportunity in Platinum for a long term tradePlatinum price is severely depressed compared to Gold price. It is now close to its 2009 multi-year bottom around 760$ per ounce. In the long run this is a trade with great risk/reward potential. I am playing here with an outlook for a 1000$ target which is 200$ from the current levels or close to 25%. Of course somebody with more long-term horizon can stay with the trade for much much higher gains. Even 2000$ is not impossible in next 3-5 years.
Lets see what happens with Platinum Commercials were in very heavy short positions. Now we are back to the zone before they got long before. Will this price interest them? Lets see if we can beat them this COT Friday..
IMO.... This is just a small bounce in a longer downtrend. Though this time last year we were very close to 1000. So I am torn.In the meantime- I will surly play the counter trade opportunities.
- SKYLOBSTER
GOLD and PLATINUM Long term projectionPLATINUM
At top chart we can se platinum almost hit major support at 880.94
We can set buy long and aim for resistance level as target at 952
Use stoploss if major support break down.
GOLD
At bottom chart we can see gold almost reach classic and support level at 1453.38
Base on correlation platinum and gold, we can set buy long and aim for resistance level at 1503 as target.
Careful if 1453 break down, coz we have very far support at 1403
Are platinum able to help gold from bearish movement?
Platinum (XPTUSD): Bullish Megaphone towards a new Higher High.Platinum posted a strong rebound on the 871.00 October 2nd low and is currently rising on 1D (RSI = 62.934, MACD = 2.660, Highs/Lows = 16.6714) towards a new Higher High. The Higher High is designated by the 1M Megaphone pattern it has been trading within since August 2018. The 1D RSI patterns suggest that a new bullish leg may start without needing to make a Higher Low. Our Target Zone is 1,020 - 1,040.
Keep in mind that XPTUSD has just initiated its new multiyear Bull Cycle, and we consider it a top investment in the coming years, a matter we analyzed on our long term analysis below:
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31 October 2019 - Platinum - 10 year breakout Might seem a bit optimistic, but it's clear that Platinum has broken out of its 10 year downward-sideways triangle range...
Fundamentally this is due to a number of factors:
Reason #1: Supply is dropping mainly in Russia and South Africa
~ Impala is cutting over 13,000 jobs '
~ Shafts are reducing from 11 to six
~ Lonmin is cutting over 5,270 jobs
Reason #2: Demand is pumping
~ Platinum demand has picked up over 660,000 ounces compared to last year
~ Impala platinum is paying dividends
~ Platinum companies are considering fund acquisitions and share buy backs.
Reason #3: Crucial $780 is dirt cheap and buying is picking up pushing the price up...
Thoughts?
Will update as things progress, I do see a number of platinum companies lining up breakout patterns,
IMPALA: A Precious Metals Holder for DecadesImpala is one of the largest Platinum producers in the world, and an extremely cheap stock when one studies their balance sheet.
South African in descent, this company has made some exceptional acquisitions with the latest in North American Palladium (Ticker: PDL; Canadian producer in Thunder Bay, Ontario) which is one of the top producing Palladium mines in the world. Palladium's necessity is expected to increase tremendously in book price over the long term as the world turns to a more "cleaner" form of transportation.
With Platinum still somewhat stagnant, now is the time to invest in IMPALA as once Platinum breaks 1000.00 USD/oz in the next month this stock will take off. Short interest in this company is also decreasing significantly and once they become more extinguished, the price will tick higher drastically.; this company also offers exposure to other metals like Rhodium.
This is one of the most stable stocks on the market.
Moreover, because of their significant acquisitions over the past 5-10 years, this is a stock to hold not just for this upcoming precious metals bull run, but also for ever, as Palladium for example will continue to be "in need" for decades to come for catalytic converters, hydrogen fuel cells and medical equipment.
- zSplit
AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) target 2,100 from weekend quote $1,69**Defensive stock to consider is AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) quoted AUG-17 $1,698.**
Reason being XAU / USD (Gold / US Dollar) prices have elevated and appear poised to continue to range above $1,400 with a 1-3 month outlook. Dividend growth (5% yield) reflects metals rally and may continue. Market cap 23.5-BLN means it is quite defensive as pure equity play. **Debt only 3-BLN. Earnings 8-BLN. Assets exceed liabilities greatly.**
**"Industry: Industrial Metals & Minerals**
Full Time Employees: 64,000"
Gold on the rise, global growth slowdown may not reverse trend in production cost which could lead to Platinum rising in shadow of Gold; versus the US Dollar.
Company (AAL.L) revenue rose dramatically more than cost of revenue since 2016 (3 years), an advantage offered by the current market climate (inflation lacking) I deem. Liabilities being much less than assets makes this an indestructible defensive play.
**Platinum group metals are in a strong bullish trend, being rare basic industrial materials this may continue.**
"Platinum group metals" includes: Platinum, Rhodium, Palladium, Iridium, Osmium, Ruthenium.
Long-term copper price risk is to the upside. Refer to recession '08 Copper prices.
**"Anglo American plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploring, mining, and processing various metals and minerals worldwide. The company explores for rough and polished diamonds, copper, platinum group metals, metallurgical and thermal coal, and iron; and nickel and manganese ores, as well as alloys."**
**Nickel is up 20% in the past 3 months.**
Credit Suisse upgraded to "Outperform" from "Neutral" 5/3/2019. Today is 8/17/2019.
**AAL.L (Anglo American Plc) target 2,100 from weekend quote $1,698 for a 23% difference** and a duration of 1-6 months, **estimate 2-3 months**. This creates possibility of receiving its' dividend of approximately 3% in addition.
xptusd We can see a potential dragon pattern emerging on the platinum chart. It has already hit the first target of 0.886 and based on the most recent retrace there is a possibility of an AB=CD continuation . Next targets are 1.13, 1.272 and 1.68 extensions however dragons can easily fly to 2.618 or even higher. Failing @ 920 level (or lower) will invalidate the idea.
Platinum: Top investment for the coming years.In our search for solid long term investments in the coming years we have decided to share our long term outlook on Platinum.
Technically it recently broke above a 3 year Falling Wedge turning bullish on the monthly chart an effect that has since receded as it pulled back on the 1,000 mark (RSI = 50.285, MACD = -8.660, ADX = 25.926, Highs/Lows = 11.4571).
If the 1W MA50 holds this pull back and another spike prints a Golden Cross, then we may come across a unique multi year buy opportunity on Platinum as most parameters will be similar to the late 90's Golden Cross pattern when the metal entered a hyper strong Bull Cycle. The target will be 2-3 times the initial value.
We wish to add at this point that Platinum has fairly reliable pointers both on the short and long term and thanks to that most of our latest XPTUSD signals have met their target on high quality patterns. You can get an idea of those below:
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Commodities are Getting Ready to POP!!Gold typically leads commodities by a few months and so given the surges and breakouts in gold, silver, and platinum, I think the CRB index is next.
Looking at the chart, its clear this is a chart that has been gradually shifting in trends. In my opinion, most of the heavy selling is over. CRB index has been forming a sexy looking base and looks like it could begin surging. Timing wise, this coincides perfectly with the Fed & central banks globally beginning new easing cycles. Its still early, as the breakout has not started, but its looking ready to get its first real pop sooner rather than later. In my view the CRB index presents tremendous value over the next several years, especially now at these ridiculously suppressed prices.