Is Platinum Ready To Break Out?Looking at the technical picture of EASYMARKETS:XPTUSD on our daily chart, after reversing higher in mid-November, the commodity started forming higher lows. That said, it is struggling to build up higher highs, at the moment. However, that might change, if the price overshoots its key resistance area, roughly between the 944 and 952 levels. Until then, we will take a cautiously bullish stance.
A break above the aforementioned resistance area would confirm a forthcoming higher high, potentially clearing the path towards higher hurdles, as more buyers might see this as a good opportunity to step in. We will then target the 989 and the 995 levels, which mark the highest points of August and July respectively.
Alternatively, a break below a short-term tentative upside support line, drawn from the lowest point of November, could result in a further price drop, as it might spook some bulls from the field. Our next possible target could be the 890 zone, which is the current lowest point of December.
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Platinum
The impact of gold growth on other metalsGreetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
Platinum: A few more strokes🖌️The platinum price is currently in the final phase of its blue wave (ii). It has not yet been able to overcome the resistance at $947.10 and has bounced off it. In the further course, however, this should be left behind as we do not expect the end of the movement until the blue Target Zone between $966.60 and $992.20. From here, a descent should then begin and the price should fall to around $750.
Decoding Market Trends: Platinum's Dance with AI-Predicted ShiftDear Esteemed TV Members,
P latinum has been swaying within a bearish trend. However, insights from Support Vector Machines (SVMs) applied to daily candles suggest a potential weakening of this bearish momentum. This predictive analysis, coupled with a possible rising channel pattern on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicates that the bearish trend might be approaching its conclusion, paving the way for a potential shift towards a bullish scenario.
S VMs, a formidable machine learning algorithm, serve a dual purpose in classification and regression tasks. In market analysis, SVMs are invaluable for identifying candlestick patterns, forecasting price momentum, and pinpointing crucial support and resistance levels. As per my SVMs, Platinum's price seems to be on the verge of entering a support zone, marked by the blue rectangle on the chart. This support zone could act as a catalyst, drawing in sufficient demand to instigate a reversal of the trend into a bullish trajectory.
V isualizing this potential scenario, I've outlined it with blue arrows and proposed a long position in the chart. However, a word of caution: Should Platinum experience a downturn below the outlined demand zone (as indicated by the purple forecast), it would be prudent to steer clear of the long position. In such a scenario, an alternative bullish outlook may emerge, capitalizing on Platinum's oversold conditions—a phenomenon observed previously on March 19, 2020, and a possibility hinted at in the alternative blue forecast.
Happy Trading!
A crucial disclaimer accompanies this insight: This is not investment advice, and the responsibility for trading decisions rests solely with the individual. It's imperative to conduct thorough research, exercise caution, and embrace effective risk management strategies.
Best regards,
Ely
Implats support in check and ready to break up to R128.76Impala Platinum has clearly been moving in a down channel.
It's failed to break the support level at R72.29.
This means, we could be getting some buying momentum and demand, which will drive the price up.
I would wait for a solid breakout above the channel, which will signal a more promising buy.
Then my next target will be R128.76
Gold - Fade a The Short Squeeze RallyThe marketing team behind gold and silver are always telling dumb and dead money that they should "hedge" against a "collapsing US Petrodollar" during times of global instability by being long on metals.
The trade rarely works out. Gold and silver not only routinely follow the equities markets straight to Hell, but tend to get dumped during the start of new index impulse swings.
This rally while the SPX gave up its 5% rally is actually a significant anomaly.
But if the propaganda never, ever worked out, the propaganda would stop working and the marketing team would be out of a job.
And that more or less sums up a 10% monthly rally on gold that's killed short sellers who wanted to comfortably ride a trend down.
You can see on the monthly that this price action is just more ranging, more wick plays, and there's a notable unbalanced gap under $1,800.
It's really important to keep a cool head as a goldbug, especially under the condition where the establishment media is reporting that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is long several hundred tonnes worth of gold.
The CCP is collapsing and everything that is going on in the world has to do with the various members of the CCP around the world, who are not of the Chinese race, scrambling to bury their skeletons while also trying to ensure they can take control of the country when the regime falls.
And because of that, there's no reason to believe that a CCP that is desperately selling US Treasuries (see: Santiago Capital) for USD is going to be allowed to go plussy plus greeny green on its deeply deep goldy gold position.
What hangs over the head of everyone on this planet is the Party's 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million students and Disciples, a sin committed by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, that has even had the audacity to commit the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting.
Keep your distance from and wash your hands from anything related to the CCP, including the western factions that have become a particle of the Party swearing Marxist vows in Shanghai.
So, here's the trade.
Doesn't matter if gold takes $2,015. It's not the right overall timing for a new rally to $2,200.
Instead, either go short, or wait for gold to trade under $1,800 again.
There's no reason to believe gold is a new bull market until longs have been ruthlessly violated. There's no reason to believe metals are going to rally as a hedge during an international war or a major equity sell off, or a major equity rally lol.
Implats down channel fooled us all but not again!To think that in January 2023, IMplats was trading at R235.52.
Today, in November we're looking at R73.12.
And yet, it's been an imperceptible downward journey, that even I am too embarassed to realise today.
Hindsight is a Biscuit!
Well anyway, the new downward channel is showing more downside to come with volatile (jumpy) highs and lows which can easily stop out any trader along the way.
But all in all, the target seems to be going to R44.00
I'm bearish...
Platinum SHORT to $828 and rebound to $972TVC:PLATINUM chart has crossed MA 200 and started its fallen to $828 (-16.35%) price target for 85 days. Then during 60 days it might go up to $972 (+17.50%). After that - flat for 320 day before sharp fallen.
RSI and MACD are similar to the chart in 2012-2013 rectangle shape.
XPTUSD bottomed and has almost +30% upside potential.Platinum (XPTUSD) is testing (and so far failing to break) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after a rebound on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up structure. A break above the 1D MA50 but mostly the Lower Highs trend-line, would confirm the bullish bias on such a low price action, with considerable upside potential.
As you can see the current bottom formation is very similar to the one that led to the September 01 2022 Low. The 1D RSI fractals are identical and will be confirmed if it continues on Higher Lows.
As a result we do have a low risk buy signal on the current level but it is not confirmed yet and needs to break above the Lower Highs to do so. Our long-term target is the 1100, which represents a +28.55% rise from the bottom, similar to the November 11 2022 peak.
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Precious Metals Schematics: A look into the Macro with FibonacciI have Listed Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Aluminum, and Gold into one chart. These are 6 of the top Metals all in Heikin Ashi Candle form.
They all have their own complex Fibonacci Clusters within each one. It may look confusing at first. But understand that one set of lines are horizontal extensions and another set are angled extensions within each one.
Metals Setup Apex "V" (PANIC) Bottom - Rally Will ContinueGold and Silver are setting up a nearly perfect deep "V" bottom after a bout of PANIC selling over the past few weeks. This sets up a move for Gold to rally above $2250 and Silver to rally above $28.50.
Ultimately, I believe Gold will exit the Setup Phase and peak in the next phase, the Breakaway Phase, above $2450. Silver will follow with a rally to levels above $31 as it moves away from the Setup Phase and peaks in the Breakaway Phase.
These are big moves for Gold and Silver - 15% to 25% or more.
This also sends a clear message to the general/global markets that traders are hedging the uncertainties of the conflicts and the central bank/global economy credit issues. I see the next 14 months, before the US POTUS elections (Nov 2024) and possibly a few months beyond, as very concerning for the US/Global markets.
Where will the economic growth come from to drive expansion? China is contracting. Asia is contracting. Europe is contracting. The US is still operating reasonably well, considering much higher interest rates. Canada is still holding up okay, considering an extremely over-inflated asset bubble.
How long before something breaks if the US Fed decides enough is enough and moves to PAUSE rate hikes?
I guess we won't see a pause in the US Fed until possibly May/June 2024. And that will drive a fear/hedging/panic cycle where USD assets and precious metals become an effective hedge against risks.
Pay attention. This next move in metals should be very explosive.
PLATINUM FUTURES, Massive BEARISH TRIANGLE-Formation, BREAKOUT!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about PLATINUM FUTURES on the global timeframe perspective. The precious metals market is moving into a decisive momentum within the recent times as developments within the financial markets point to a continuation of exceptionally high interest rates within vast majorities of economies and a continuation of hawkish interest rate approaches. An market with continued higher interest rates is pointing to an main indication of a more bearish determination for the precious metals market. If there is no change in the hawkish FED policies and a turning point into more dovish policies decreasing interest rates this is likely to setup the continuation of a bearish indication for precious metal derivatives such as PLATINUM FUTURES. This in combination with a strong DXY, U.S. Dollar Currency Index is increasing opportunity costs of holding precious metal derivatives such as PLATINUM FUTURES, especially within the currencies baskets this is likely to decrease long open interst and increase open interest in short positions to hedge against a depreciating fiat currency pointing to a bearish precious metal scenario.
From a technical perspective the signs are definitely worthwhile to consider here as PLATINUM FUTURES form this gigantic descending-channel-formation in which PLATINUM FUTURES already completed several massive bearish waves to the downside increasing bearish pressure and momentum forming several lower lows and pointing to a higher likelihood possibility of a continuation within the descending-channel-formation. Within this channel PLATINUM FUTURES also form the coherent wave-count with the waves A to C being already completed and now within the formation of the wave D PLATINUM FUTURES are forming this gigantic triangle-formation which is likely to complete within the next times. A breakout below the lower boundary of the triangle-formation will setup the origin of a continuation into the bearish direction and a substantial extension of the wave E within the whole wave-count increasing the bearish momentum till the final targets have been reached.
Taking all these factors into the consideration here the final breakout can setup faster than expected and then it will be important on how PLATINUM FUTURES setup the actual bearish momentum to develop within the wave-E of the whole wave-count because when the momentum is that strong reaching out to the initial target-zones marked in blue this can lead to a continuation just below these levels and a invalidation of the descending-channel into the lower directions. If this does not happen and PLATINUM FUTURES show up with the ability to stabilize within the final target-zones from there on the potential for a reversal increases and if this reversal setups, once it has emerged PLATINUM FUTURES also have the potential to show up with a final breakout out of the upper boundary of the descending-channel-formation. Especially with continued hawkish interest rate policy, in combination with the open interest in short-positions increasing exponentially, and the strong DXY putting bearish pressure on commodities as well as precious metals this is pointing to the final bearish acceleration and breakout developments to emerge realizing this whole bearish scenario.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
XPTUSD Solid buy entry but not confirmed yet.Platinum (XPTUSD) is trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after a rebound on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of a potential long-term Channel Up structure. This is the 2nd time it bounces off the Higher Lows and the 4th within the 7-month Support Zone.
The 1D MACD made a Bullish Cross last week and is on Higher Lows since June 30. The very same Triple Bottom formation on a Higher Lows MACD can be seen on the previous bottom. The Lower Highs trend-line break-out didn't confirm the bullish signal, it had to be a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to give the confirmation. As you can see on both fractals the price got rejected on the 1D MA200 (August 11 2022 and July 18 2023) before it bottomed.
As a result we may have a low risk buy signal on the current level but it is not confirmed yet and needs to break above the 1D MA200 to do so. Our long-term target is the Top of the Resistance Zone at 1130.
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Platinum- New test of 1k zone?Since the beginning of July, Platinum has been trading in a 100 USD range, between 900 and 1000 USD per ounce (more or less).
The start of September found the price at the bottom of this range and the price has started to rise again.
A first leg up followed and after XptUsd reached 950, a correction started.
Yesterday we had a reversal in price from interim support around 927 and a new leg up could be next.
Bulls are favored as long as the price is above yesterday's low in terms of daily close and, swing traders who target the upper boundary of the race could achieve an impressive 1:3 risk: reward.
As in the case of Silver and Gold, I'm also bullish on Platinum.
PLATINUM, This Formation Possibly Provides Proper Setup!Hello Traders Investors And Community,
Welcome to this analysis where we are looking at PLATINUM 4-hour timeframe perspective, the recent events, the current formation, and how possible set-ups can resulting out of it.
PLATINUM is trading in this huge possible rising-triangle-formation marked in blue which can reverse the established bullish trend to the downside as it already begins to struggle while it is approaching important resistance levels formed by past price-action. The wave-count you can watch is matching also this triangle which will confirm when the price the last time touches the upper boundary to confirm it bearish , therefore the whole formation will be confirmed with a close below the lower boundary and a possible additional confirmation of it which will show the proper short-side setup to be traded, although the aggressive immediate entry is also possible here the conservative waiting on the right confirmation will be way smarter. Targets will be way down in the structure and when the minimum targets achieved at around 900 there can come more bearish pressure, in this case, it is important to examine further.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, support for more market insight and all the best.
"Trading effectively is about accessing possibilities, not certainties."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
PLATINUM: Excellent buy signal at the bottom of a Rectangle.Platinum (XPTUSD) is rebounding after entering the S1 Zone, which is the bottom part of the Rectangle pattern that has been keeping the price action sideways for the past three months. The 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 45.406, MACD = -7.150, ADX = 37.615) as a result, which justifies this ranged price action. The 1D RSI is rising on a HL trendline, thus we use this low price level to go long and target the 1D MA200 and the R1 Zone (TP = 983.00).
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Silver - A 50% Long Setup. Trade Only. No HODL.In a post on Silver from June, I analyse that a run to $33 is on deck:
Silver - 33 Moons And An Options Opportunity
In the time that has passed, we've had two ~10% bounces that have been sold off.
To me, this is a peculiar pattern for a trendline play that leads to new lows in the immediate term future, and represents confirmation that $33 is on deck.
However, I'm also expecting a very bearish September across all markets, which I outline in a recent call on Nasdaq:
Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?
Because I believe that we'll have a giant rally that takes out the tops of a lot of things heading into the end of 2023, and 2024 will mark the beginning of the real economic calamity.
When it comes to silver and gold being bullish in the long term, they should be, but the market manipulators will keep price supressed for a few reasons.
The first is that a renaissance in precious metals, or even a bubble in precious metals, will amount to promoting bullion, coins, bills, and even ore. These things are mankind's traditions, and are at odds with the current International Rules Based Order (IRBO) pseudo-Chinese Communist Party culture that more or less wants to install something like a cross between Shanghai's Zero-COVID social credit system and the Taliban.
The second is that China, which is still governed by the CCP and Xi Jinping, has bought an incredible amount of gold in recent times, if reports are true and not fabricated at least.
And so a short raid on precious metals would amount to a de facto economic sanction against China, which the IRBO claims to be de-risking against.
Moreover, if something should happen to the Party, whether that be natural disaster, a greater pandemic, Xi performing a Gorbachev-style coup against the Party overnight, or Heaven finally dealing with the CCP's 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, because China holds so much gold, there will be open selling into the market.
Prices will crash because the very wealthiest families on this planet are safeguards of tradition and will take advantage of the situation to purchase back that physical bullion and jewellery at record low prices amid the chaos.
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if it's your own," they say.
So here's the current call on silver.
The fake double top below the early May gap at $25.5~ is definitely manipulation.
It's traded back too far and hasn't shown any bullishness to give us confidence that we're going to go from $23 to $26 or $27 as a breaker pattern.
Because "resistance" has been printed, many very large players and retail traders who are short will position their stop losses over $26 and $27.
This becomes a target.
And in the meantime the goldbug moonboys have long stops under $22 and $21, which just so happens to be an untested gap.
So the trade here is to either look at a short on a retrace to $24 with a target of $21~, or just wait for $21 with a target of $33 by year end.
And then sell it all. Sell your spot. Sell your bullion, if you can't be hedged short.
Silver will eventually truly appreciate, and in a significant way, but it's not very likely to manifest before the new future unfolds.
And so in 2024, we may really see numbers sub $15 again. Ergo, because metals are, in reality, ranging and not trending, it's not a market for "buy and hold" to be an intelligent strategy.
Good luck.
Gold defies bond sell-off once againNominal 10-year Treasury yields have risen to the highest level since 2007. Just when we though the bond sell-off of 2022 was behind us, it came back with a vengeance. Hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (Fed) minutes and a string of positive economic data from the US are casting doubts whether we have reached peak interest rates in the US. The Fed certainly has left the door open for further hikes and its decisions will be very data sensitive.
Relative to the bond market, gold is holding up well at USD1916/oz (on 23 August 2023). While gold prices temporarily fell below the psychologically important US$1900/oz level, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) prices had fallen much further and other-things-being-equal, the bond market would indicate gold should be trading closer to $1830/oz. Gold’s resilience in the past month mirrors its defiance again the bond headwinds of 2022.
Gold has been facing US Dollar headwinds as well in the past month. The Dollar Basket (DXY) has appreciated 2.1% in the past month (to 22 August 2023). With a more hawkish Fed, there is a greater risk of further dollar appreciation.
Central banks bought a net 55 tonnes of gold in June following three straight months of selling. The Central Bank of Türkiye's (CBRT) return to net buying in June helped reverse a temporary trend. Having been a significant net seller between March and May to meet local demand, it swung back to net buying in June, adding 11 tonnes to its official reserves.
Of all the precious metals, silver fell the most in the past month (-6.1%). Net speculative positioning fell 88% to a level one standard deviation below its 5-year average. However, we suspect that excessive shorts were being covered in the past week. Since hitting an intra-day local low of US$22.35/oz at 13.30 on 15/08/2023 silver prices have bounced up to US$24.14/oz at 15.00 on 23/08/2023 (+8.0%). That low point seems to match the Fibonacci-implied support levels looking at year-to-date silver performance (the 38.2% retracement).
Silver inventory in London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vaults, which fell precipitously in 2022 (-28%), has stabilised and gained 3% year to July 2023. Silver holding in exchange traded commodities (ETCs) have only modestly declined in 2023 so far (4%) after a 15% decline in 2022.
The last week’s bounce in silver price takes the gold-to-silver ratio back down to 81 (22/08/2023), from 84 (08/08/2023), fractionally higher than 80, where we were a month ago (21/07/2023). Net speculative positioning in silver fell 88%, one standard deviation below its 5-year average according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (August 15, 2018 to August 15, 2023)
Platinum and palladium also followed silver higher in the past week, but monthly prints have come in lower. Auto sales have largely been improving in the past year, with sales up 18% y-o-y in Europe (June) and US (July). However, China sales fell 1% y-o-y in July. Autos are the main source of demand for platinum group metals.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Copper - Did Social Media Tell You To Long The CCP Again?They call copper "Doctor Copper" because it's said to forecast the overall world economic conditions on account of being tightly wed to manufacturing.
Well, what people are really yammering about with that over the last 20 years is whether or not the Chinese Communist Party is healthy, and the world by proxy being healthy because it tied itself to the most heinous regime in history, the one responsible for the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the accompanying organ harvesting and genocide.
Unfortunately for all the blind bulls, the early 2021-2022 price action was a pretty good indication of a top, and that top is really confirmed by the fact that since October of '22, this bounce has been pretty weak, and starting this month, with all the drama surrounding the slow collapse of the Chinese economy, took out the previous two months' lows.
Monthly shows you that August price action took both the July and June lows.
Like, that's not the kind of "signal" you want to see to get long for a new all time high.
When something is retracing to take out major highs, you want to see lows rarely violated with something of a freight train towards the old highs.
Weekly bars show us something of a subtle pattern where it looks like it's just taken some lows and is consolidating and continually flirting with going back up.
But in reality the market makers are, most likely, just selling more under the previous $4.00 area.
And if that's really true, it means another gap down is imminent, especially after an entire quarter of ranging.
If you ask me, the first area that you can look for a long that is more than a scalp on copper is under $2.8, which is a critical pivot from September.
And a more likely target in the next 12 months is the $2.00 mark, which was barely swept out in the COVID drama.
The reality is, my friends, the Chinese Communist Party is going to fall overnight in our lifetimes. Not five or ten years from now. But very shortly, and everything is going to change.
Whether that is caused by Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP to protect himself and China from being taken over by the International Rules Based Order as it uses Taiwan as a soft proxy war, or because the whole world collapses under the results of the persecution of Falun Dafa, since everyone's been going to Shanghai to worship the toads and the Devil Red to get financial benefits.
This is the danger.
The danger is imminent.
But copper trades painfully slowly, so if you want to do this you have to have long duration, ignore the noise, and be willing to suffer some drawdown.
China under the CCP is never going to recover. Things are never going to be okay ever again.
Things will be okay once mankind returns to tradition.
But there won't be an international stock market like this anymore that day.
US Dollar Index Could Be Topping HereSee the three touches on the upper trend line. If this line holds, the DX price could move down to the 98 area. Also the RSI (10) is overbought.
Such a chart could be used to short the DX, or to go long the EUR/USD and the precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum.
If I were to trade the DX short, I would place an extra big stop loss, maybe at 103.90 or at 104 (maybe even higher) in case of some stop hunting/a shake out before a big move down. Then would carefully add on to a profitable position. Same for going long the other choices: use a big stop loss.
(A strong close above the upper trend line would not be good for this trade; a peek-a-boo move that does not actually close above the trend line means the trade is still viable. Also, a daily close below the 103 area would help confirm this trade idea.)
Good luck!