Platinum
Platinum could rise to 1200 zoneSince the late September low and strong support from 850, Platinum has had a nice rise of around 30%.
On the last trading day of 2022, the price also broke above 1050 resistance and, after confirming this break as a genuine one last week, Friday's candle is a bullish engulfing.
All these are suggesting up continuation and the 1200 zone could be next for Platinum.
Buy dips in the 1070-1080 zone could be a good strategy that also offers 1:2.5 R: R
Gold May Reach New All-Time Highs Early In Q3:2023My research suggests Gold may continue to rally above $2079 in early July 2023.
I believe the current US/Global market crisis event is very unique - something many people fail to understand.
Many professional analysts have gotten married to the 2008 market collapse scenario. I'm watching dozens of posts on social media and other sites where everyone is uber short.
I don't understand why it seems so many people fail to understand the real context of the global markets right now.
In my opinion, this is 2003-05 all over again - mixed with a bit of 1993~1997.
Few people really understand what I'm talking about. Let's see if you can tell me what you see in the markets right now.
The biggest opportunity of your life is about to unfold.
Get ready for a big WAVE-5 Rally.
Platinum is the one to buy and hold for yearsI've been bullish platinum for a long time now, but breakouts from such long-term ranges take time. We've seen similar shapes in crude oil and in copper, both of which have broken out. I started discussing the upcoming crude oil breakout on Twitter in 2019 already, and I've been doing the same for platinum. In time, we will surpass the all-time highs, which isn't strange considering that platinum can be used as an industrial metal to support the electrification trend.
Don't expect this to breakout tomorrow. It could take until 2024, but I'm very confident that it will be a matter of time. In the short term, I am looking for a drop by possibly as much as 3-5%, which is when I will start adding to my existing position. A critical level is $1,040 and it seems likely that we will see a test of that level before we head back to the current levels. On a side note: platinum looks like it will be outperforming gold in the coming years. The gold/platinum chart is an interesting one to look at.
PS: Please disregard the RSI indicator here, it wasn't supposed to be shown.
Greenwashing Can Only Take You So FarSibanye-Stillwater follows a number of broader correlations. Platinum, palladium, gold, gold miners, the SA40. But until now nobody has mentioned that--because of its earnings misses lately-- perhaps the market is pricing in SSW's overextended battery metals M&A strategy. Will they ever make money on their new lithium acquisitions? Is SSW even making money in its catalytic converter recycling segment? It is the largest such company in the world, so it's worth asking. In the short term macro, global electric vehicle production is going to slow; I don't see how SSW will profit from this in the near term.
Now to the technicals of my bearish bet. Breakdown from a Rising Wedge has formed into a Head & Shoulders with the second shoulder rejecting back under the 200 Exponential Moving Average after a notable increase in selling volume. Panning out on the longer term, this is a rejection from previous support of the topping structure. I do not believe that this is a breakout from an Inverse H&S nor a base breakout + retest move. I believe SSW has topped and will continue to move lower.
PLATINUMHELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT PL1! is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the buyers from this area will be defend this LONG position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again..
UP TREND + Resistance from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this long trade..
IF you like my work please like and follow thanks
AMS, bullish?We've noted several PGMs turning bullish in the past few weeks, and we have an JSE:AMS position. At the moment JSE:AMS seem to be retesting the (rising) 200MA, if it find support there, the stock may continue to rise, especially if the sector is turning bullish. Other notable players are JSE:IMP & JSE:SSW (position)
Silver Breaking Out (upward). Gold/Platinum should followGold/Silver bugs - are you ready for what a lot of us have been saying for the past 5+ years. The base/bottom in metals back in 2015 was the critical base for the next big move. This upward price swing should be the next accumulation phase which will drive a speculative phase in about 3~4+ years.
That speculative phase will be MASSIVE (should happen near 2027~2029).
You gotta love when the world sits and waits for metals to move - then ignores the 40% rally in metals/miners in the early phase - right?
Here we go.
IMplats long after a extended sideways move Target R259.69Cup and Handle has formed on Implats. The price has broken out and is meandering sideways before the next move up.
Platinum companies as well as the precious metal is setting itself for great upside as investors and instiutions are piling their funds into the metal as a form of safe haven... We are going old school right now where the old ways work better than investing in unstable Cryptos...
More bullish signs 7 > 21 > 200
Target R259.69
Bullish
Gold is targeting $1860 & $1899 - Beyond $2300 in 2023Gold is doing what Gold always does in a Deprecionary Cycle Phase - sets up a momentum base, then start to build a momentum rally.
Current base level is near $1670 to $1710.
Normal rally results in a $400 to $475 rally phase before exhausting.
My initial targets, $1860 & $1899, are just the first stage of the rally trend. Upside targets for exhaustion should be near $2150 to $2225.
Remember, this is just the start of this rally (just like in 2003~05). The real rally in Gold will start in 2027~2030.
Follow my research.
Silver is up 32% from Sept 1 - Ready for the next move higher?Have you been following my research, weekly videos, and Custom Metals Indexes?
If so, you already know why I've been telling traders/investors Gold/Silver are setting up just like 2003-04: building a momentum base over the past 24+ months.
The next move higher (over the next 5+ years) should be incredible.
Silver is up 32% over the past 90 days. Can you imagine what the next 500+ days will look like?
Remember what happened to Silver between 2007~2011? Imagine that, but with a potential amplitude of 2x or 3x.
Get ready, it's all just getting started right now.
Follow my research. Learn why you need to prepare for the biggest opportunities of your life with my research/algos.
PLATINUM The 1D MA50 is the key. Potential long-term bull.Platinum (XPTUSD) has been trading within a (very) long-term Triangle pattern since the September 24 2020 Low. That was the low that initiated a massive rally to the February 16 2021 High that started the long-term Lower Highs trend-line, which lastly rejected the price November 11 2022.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the key here. As long as it holds, there are good chances that Platinum will push for another Lower Highs test and potentially a break-out, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
If the 1D MA50 breaks, we will pursue the Symmetrical Support Zone as our short-term target and the September 24 2020 low (830.00) as our long-term.
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Gold GC1 - A New ATH is Simply a Fantasy. But, a Big Trade Brewsis this thing that has traded like a boat anchor, as much of a boat anchor as Bitcoin . More or less not moving at all. Yet, as with all things, consolidation periods only last for so long before the volatility picks up again to draw in new attention.
This chart is a huge amount of time and very wide ranges and so it's very hard to stuff the important info into the part associated with this call. You'll have to read my wall of text for it to all make sense.
Many have wondered, myself included, how Gold could have failed to make a new high during its post-Russian Federation invasion of Ukraine pump to $2078. I myself traded this during that time and had months worth of longs established at $1,600, $1,700, $1,800 and missed the chance to get out at a profit, waiting for it to set a new high.
I was very confused.
Over the months, I have upgraded myself significantly and I now understand why. It's simple:
Market makers were simply attacking the area above the '11 $1,923 ATH. The fact that no new high was made indicates that MMs are heavy on the sell. Unfortunately for goldbugs, this means that a new all time high is literally a fantasy. It will happen, but not until significant downside conditions are met.
The total range equilibrium between the $1,069 low in '16 and the post-COVID ATH is roughly $1,550. Until gold trades below this area and there are indications longs are accumulating, there will not be a move towards an ATH again.
This can be seen with a study of the monthly:
And the Weekly:
This is reality. Just get in line with reality and you'll be able to:
a) Save losses
b) Book gains
Gold has traded, since September, underneath a key low, and has not followed its counterpart Silver in taking significant north-side runs. Today during FOMC madness, the one time that gold really ought to have gone up to draw in buyers based on the notion of inflation hedging, it instead ran into resistance at that $1,670 level.
This mostly assures that gold is headed to new lows.
In my opinion, there are two scenarios, the first is much more likely than the second, and bodes well for bulls:
1) Gold trades to the low $1,500s for a discount versus the COVID-hysteria lows for the first time in almost two years.
Should it show signs of life here, Gold should reverse and head back into the $1,850-$1,900 area. But be warned this type of trading pattern will not amount to a run towards a new all time high, although it will feel like it, and all the "gurus" will assure you it will be.
This type of trading pattern will constitute more selling, because a longer term move downwards is happening.
2) Gold loses all life and heads towards the $1,350 area. This will be long term bullish because, after what is likely to be at least a year of accumulation, it means that a new all time high is inbound.
I believe gold will drop as equities rally more. I think that when equities start to dump, this time gold will go up, because it will drag in goldbugs and ancap types who think the dollar is on the way out and the gold standard is coming back.
After you buy their bags at $1,900, gold will be crushed and you'll buy high and sell back low.
Note that in terms of Commitments of Traders , although commercials are their most long they've been in three years, they're still not net long. You won't see them be net long until the $1,300s.
But before then, we should see Gold mimic the patterns of silver , because more selling is in store.
A final word: The biggest market risk right now is not the Federal Reserve , or a recession. Neither is it Credit Suisse collapsing. A lot of things are going to go up, and may even go up a lot (Don't believe it? Take a look at what the Dow Jones just did. Some components made a new all time high in the middle of your "Hawkish Federal Reserve" and your "recession.").
The greatest market risk is that the Chinese Communist Party will either collapse internally or be thrown away by "Emperor" Xi Jinping as he, and the nation of China, struggle to survive what is happening.
When that day happens, 20% days down on the indexes are going to come and there won't be any bounces.
Wall Street won't be in such a mood to market make anymore, because all their collusion with the Chinese Communist Party and their implicit passive and active support of the organ harvesting persecution of Falun Gong will have many of their members scuttle into hiding.
Just wait and see. Nobody thought the USSR would ever fall, and yet, it did. Overnight.
Tl; dr Gold --> $1,500 with little upside in between. This is a bear trap.
Then big bounce to $1,850. But the big bounce is a bull trap.
Are Precious Metals Finally Reacting To Fed Fear?Myself, like many others, continue to believe Precious Metals (#gold & #silver) are about to enter a very explosive price phase. The past 12+ months have seen Gold rally after COVID, then enter an extended decline phase as the speculative bubble distracted everyone from core value. Now that the Fed and GCBs are dancing around rate increases, higher inflation, and consumer demands, will Precious Metals shift direction and start a new up trend?
Time will tell, but this recent Double-Bottom in Gold certainly looks promising.
I'm still cautiously optimistic the past 10+ years of extremely easy money policies will setup a huge rally phase in Metals. Near Dec 2019, my main cycle system moved into a Depreciation cycle phase. That means we have until 2029+ for this cycle to continue to unwind. Remember that is still 6~7+ years from now.
The unwinding phase will be very similar to the 2000~2009 Depreciation phase - sideways trends with extreme volatility.
I expect a slow melt upward over the next 3+ years, eventually extending into a parabolic upward price trend (increasing in speed and volatility as we near 2028~29).
This recent BASE ($1690) will probably turn into a very strong decades-long base/support.
We've never been anywhere close to what is happening in the US/Global markets before. But I'm here to tell you the real fun start after 2026~27. Until then, the global markets are shifting in structure, attempting to find support - just like what happened near 1997~2001.
Get ready for another 5+ years of big volatility and trends.
Follow my research. Don't miss these huge trends.
Platinum (PL): Wave Analysis 1917-2022●● Preferred count
● Platinum Cash (PL.C), 🕐TF: 20D
Fif.1
The counting of long-term waves only confirmed the priority of the scenario defined in the previous review, in the context of which the supercycly wave (V) unfolds the ending diagonal . This hypothesis assumes the continuation of price growth within wave III , which will take the form of a zigzag, exceeding the maximum of wave I .
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● Platinum Futures (NYMEX) , 🕐TF: 1D
Fif.2
The wave Ⓐ in the composition of III of (V) must also take the form of a diagonal . At least, the double zigzag that formed from the top of wave II can be interpreted in a general context as the first wave in its composition.
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● Platinum Futures (NYMEX) , 🕐TF: 8h
Fif.3
According to the structure, the second wave of intermediate degree can be identified as a double zigzag W-X-Y with a combination in X . Moreover, wave (2) reached a level that created several Fibonacci ratios: wave Y = 61.8% W , while (2) = 61.8% (1) . Quite powerful the argument in favor of the fact that the downward correction is over. The breakdown of the 0-X line will serve as an additional signal in favor of this assumption.
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●● Alternative count
● Platinum Futures (NYMEX) , 🕐TF: 8h
Fif.4
The alternative markup tells us that the correction within wave (2) will continue. A series of overlapping zigzags in a downtrend can be identified as the leading diagonal in wave A . If this interpretation turns out to be correct, then after correction in wave B , the minimum of 797.5 formed by wave A will be rearranged within the impulse C .
📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
GOLD Phase 3 Failure - Time for LIFTOFFIf you understand price patterns, one of the most important is what I call the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
You see this pattern in up trends and at the peak/start of breakdowns in price. One thing that is very critical to understand about this pattern is the failure of Phase-3 usually prompts another wave higher. At this point, Gold has stalled out near dual support and may start a very aggressive upward price trend as we near the APEX of the Pennant/Flag formation.
My research suggests an upward move (above $1870) is very likely to confirm the upper flag channel. Then price will likely stall before attempting a bigger breakout trend.
What this means is..
Just like in 2003-05, gold began a "melt up" phase after the DOT COM bubble and the early US economic recovery.
That melt-up phase culminated in a breakdown event (GFC 2008-09). Afterward, Gold skyrocketed higher (2011)
My interpretation is that Gold is acting just like the 2004~2007 MELT UP rally phase and will likely increase another 85% from current levels - yup $3800+ Gold is on the way.
Then, we enter the BIG RALLY PHASE after 2025 or so.
Follow my research.