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by senyor
12
A traders’ playbook – technically long, tactically cautious We roll into August where after a scorching run in risk assets, the NAS100 closed July +12.6%, the best gain since April 2020 (rallied 15.2%). In Europe, the FRA40 was the best performing EU equity index, +8.9% for July, while in APAC/Asia the AUS200 rallied 5.7% and trending beautifully into FY earnings. Ethereum gaining a massive 67% in July has shown us once again that if risk is going up then crypto is the high beta play and we watch this space for a new leg higher in this move. FX markets were less clear, with the NOK working well as a pure pro-risk FX play, while the once safe-haven JPY has also shone as US bond yields fell, validating the BoJ’s dovish stance – clients have been heavy buyers of JPY of late and continue to hold a positive JPY stance. We start the week pricing on a slight negative vibe, with China releasing a poor manufacturing PMI print, with the index at 49.0 and pulling into contraction territory – geopolitics was looking like making somewhat of a return with US/China relations in focus as talk of a possible Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan did the rounds, but that looks to not the case now. As we look ahead, we consider what themes and event risks will drive markets this week. With the Fed moving to a more data-dependent/balanced structure last week felt as though we saw a temporary ‘goldilocks’ scenario – if the data proved to be poor then rates hikes are priced out, bond yields fall and the USD found sellers – subsequently, we buy growth equity, crypto, gold and the JPY. If the data proves to be better, then we speculate the recession trade may have gone too far. One thing is clear, bad news has been bad news for the USD and certainly versus the JPY, with USDJPY -2.1% on the week – falling through the 50-day MA, which has worked as a primary trend filter since March. From a momentum perspective, my indicators are bullish and there are few reasons to be short – the NAS100 has some big levels to break into 13k – an upside break here could suggest adding to longs. The USDX tests the lower levels of the regression channel (drawn from the Jan lows), while EURUSD consolidates in a 1.0100 to 1.0270 range. XAUUSD looks interesting for $1786 but requires a weaker USD and lower real rates and SpotCrude needs to break out of a $95 to $103.70 range. The battle lines are drawn, but tactically I would be looking more favourably at short-risk trades – as always, when the tactical/fundamental view and technicals disagree on the longer-timeframes I'll back Mr Market, especially if using leverage. However, I see a refresh this week in the markets thinking and good economic should see the market price a greater chance of another 75bp hike from the Fed in the September meeting and now US Q2 earnings are drawing to a close, and financial conditions are more accommodative than they were before the Fed hiked the fed funds rate by 75bp last week - one suspects the Fed will not want to take the foot the inflation break just yet. Feels like the skew of risk is for the Fed to gently tighten financial conditions and discourage greater risk-taking from hedge funds. We can also see the bank reserves held at the Fed increased by $40.4b last week – this looks at the liability side of the balance sheet and has correlated well with growth and high beta equity and gives a good guide to liquidity. If this was to turn lower, and we won’t know until Thursday, then it will hold well with a weaker equity tape. Looking at the calendar we have the RBA and BoE meeting – we can see GBPUSD 1-week implied vols are still quite elevated and could easily see some moves play out in the quid. I think they go 25bp myself, which offers moderate GBP risk, but the job of the trader is to run the distribution of potential outcomes and assess the sort of moves that could play out. In the US, the ISM manufacturing report, payrolls, and Fed speakers will garner my close attention. After a huge July, we turn to the Northern Hemisphere summer holiday trading conditions – it doesn’t feel like traders should be shutting up shop and taking a break given the unfolding dynamics, even if it can be the best thing for the mind.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
BTC Playbook: Relief Rally targets and possible BottomHey all! It seems like my idea (posted 3 weeks ago) about a potential relief rally is coming to fruition (with a bit of a delay). I'll keep this analysis quick and simple by giving you all the possible resistances and where I believe the bear market bottom is. Here we go: Red lines: The red lines are all my price targets for this relief rally. I give emphasis on the 200W MA and the 50D MA area. If the price breaks the first, there's a chance we visit the second but I personally believe the probability of heading even higher (towards the 28800 area) is not as great. If you're wondering why I picked these prices go back to the bull run and you will see those where areas of consolidation during previous upside. As I said tho, for me the most important levels are those around 200W MA and 50D MA. Green lines: Green lines are all tested supports. Ironically, all those levels were hiding in plain sight. All of them are levels from November 2020 (right before we broke 2017 ATH) Those are levels you might considering buying, of course depending on the Price Action (context while visiting each level may vary, making each one a good buy or bad one. Use your brain) Yellow lines: Those are untested supports. For context I've written the dates they come from so you can check why these prices are important. There's high probability these yellow lines are the bear market bottom. If not then my eyes would target the 11800-12500 area as an extreme bear market bottom (absolute lowest price I could ever imagine is 10800 and I think it's highly unlikely we'll see it) Blue background "Zone" = Ranging zone. Not terrible buys but expect a lot of chopping Green background "Zone" = Good buying opportunity zone. Very good prices to build some spot. Potentially that's also gonna be the bottom unless we go for the extreme scenario of sub 14k. !!! INVALIDATION !!! -- My Idea for a relief rally is invalidated if we get extended price action below 20.4k or daily close below 19.2k or weekly close below 19.6k !!! Generally, I believe we have lee-way, thus, possible upside until either 13/7 when CPI comes out or 19/7 when earnings start to get published. I am expecting bad earnings to be announced starting 19/7 and on. On top of that we have FOMC meeting the 27/7 and GDP for Q2 coming out the 29/7 (which will confirm we're in a recession) So whatever you do make sure to secure profits till 13/7 max 19/7 In short, upside for up to 2 weeks, then return into the inside week range (19600-21800) and eventually towards the actual bear market bottom. This whole process might take a month or two, so, stay vigilant and be patient. Good Luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Athantonios
2
BITCOIN STRATEGY $500 to $10,000 Part 2i use BiTMEX to get the feel of Sir Arthur's whale clients and liquidity pooling either spoofed real or legit the price action is well syndicated as fine as a china ware the motivation of the exchange be it BMex BiNANCE etc. is to provide liquidity to either at a PREMIUM or at a DISCOUNT and create a RANGE to churn wash whatever nature of business the client intends to do so -- i use another broker roll in the funds for trading & investing yes i do have two accounts one for GREED mode when momentum sets in the other is Discipline mode as rules based on setups -- suggestion for neophytes... maintain 3x to 10x leverage in futures exchanges the handler knows the net STOPS on both long and shorts and has a way to hunt them using less capital -- good lucks and hope we all make it alive towards $29,000 the PARABOLIC limit of this Circus
BITMEX:XBT
by senyor
3
The GBPUSD playbook – how Brexit could play into price movesIf you like volatility GBP is the place to look, and we can see one-month GBPUSD implied volatility (vol) at 14.0%, relative to say AUDUSD and EURUSD vol at 9.34% and 7.57% respectively. To put this into perspective, the implied move in GBPUSD over the coming month sits at 413-points from spot, and this expiry encompasses the expected Commons vote on 10 December. As we can see on the daily chart, a 413-point move takes us into the top of the multi-month range, as well as the 38.2% Fibo of the April to August sell-off. How price reacts around here would be very interesting. Volatility is naturally directionally agnostic, so a 413-point move could easily take us through the lower esculents of the range at 1.2600 and potentially into 1.2200. The interesting part is that that we have seen encouraging signs of cooperation between Theresa May and the EU, involving a Free Trade area with a customs arrangement. This comes at a time where various factions of the Tory party have failed to garner the needed 48 letters to prompt a confidence vote. So, the prospect of May being removed from power has diminished for now, and that has supported GBP. Once this weekend’s EU Summit is out of the way, the real attention turns to whether the draft Withdrawal Agreement passes through the Commons and at this point that seems low. Therefore, it seems logical that GBP could be sold into the vote, although, we can already see from the weekly CoT report and GBPUSD risk reversals that traders are already heavily short the GBP and have paid up for GBP put vol. The downside in cable is therefore cushioned to an extent, but should the MPs in the Commons vote down the deal we will likely see another sharp move lower. Vols imply a move into 1.2400, so a move into say 1.2200 and I would be a willing buyer of GBP, as my base-case is that May will head to Brussels to re-work the deal, and on the second attempt in the Commons and it may pass, causing a decent rally as bearish positioning is unwound. As you can see, the Brexit playbook is diverse, but vols tell us a decent move could be on the cards and this has huge implications for stop placement and position sizing. Disclaimer. Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
by Pepperstone
EUR/USD - Day Trade AnalysisIn this EUR/USD analysis I am using the 15-min time frame. On the monthly and weekly chart for EUR/USD the pair can be seen in a current uptrend. Price may continue to go up from its current point but If I were to enter I would place my entry at retrace a little but the pair looks strong. As a day trading perspective this analysis I would enter this pair at the bottom support zone between 1.2342 and 1.2352. This is a preferable resistance level that fits my strategy; Depending on where I placed the trade I would exit the trade at my take profit zone between 1.2362 and 1.2370. I would only place this trade if the price hit my preferable support zone. If not, I would not enter and appreciate the market for its graceful twists and turns. Happy trading!
Long
by austinlmkc
ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO (THE BEST TREND INDICATOR)Ichimoku Kinko Hyo “one look equilibrium chart” In my personal opinion is the best all in one indicator, it defines support and resistance, identifies trend direction, gauges momentum and provides trading signals. The best part about ichimoku is not only that it gives you a directional bias "at one glance" but also it provides trading signals. These signals can be used by themselves or together and are very powerful. There are 5 signals and are as followed: Bullish Signals: Kijun-Sen Cross - A bullish signal occurs when the price crosses from below to above the Kijun Sen. A weak bullish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo. A neutral bullish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo. A strong bullish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo. Tenkan-Sen / Kijun Sen Cross (TK Cross) - A bullish signal occurs when the Tenkan Sen crosses from below to above the Kijun Sen. A weak bullish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo. A neutral bullish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo. A strong bullish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo. Senkou-Span Cross (Kumo Twist) - A bullish signal occurs when the Senkou Span A crosses from below to above the Senkou Span B. A weak bullish signal occurs if the current price is below the Kumo. A neutral bullish signal occurs if the current price is inside the Kumo. A strong bullish signal occurs if the current price is above the Kumo. Chikou-Span Cross - A bullish signal occurs when the Chikou Span rises from below to above the price. A weak bullish signal occurs if the current price is below the Kumo. A neutral bullish signal occurs if the current price is inside the Kumo. A strong bullish signal occurs if the current price is above the Kumo. Kumo Breakout - A bullish signal occurs when the price goes upwards through the top of the Kumo. Bearish Signals: Kijun-Sen Cross - A bearish signal occurs when the price crosses from above to below the Kijun Sen. A weak bearish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo. A neutral bearish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo. A strong bearish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo. Tenkan-Sen / Kijun Sen Cross (TK Cross) - A bearish signal occurs when the Tenkan Sen crosses from above to below the Kijun Sen. A weak bearish signal occurs when the cross is above the Kumo. A neutral bearish signal occurs when the cross is inside the Kumo. A strong bearish signal occurs when the cross is below the Kumo. Senkou-Span Cross (Kumo Twist) - A bearish signal occurs when the Senkou Span A crosses from above to below the Senkou Span B. A weak bearish signal occurs if the current price is above the Kumo. A neutral bearish signal occurs if the current price is inside the Kumo. A strong bearish signal occurs if the current price is below the Kumo. Chikou-Span Cross - A bearish signal occurs when the Chikou Span falls from above to below the price. A weak bearish signal occurs if the current price is above the Kumo. A neutral bearish signal occurs if the current price is inside the Kumo. A strong bearish signal occurs if the current price is below the Kumo. Kumo Breakout - A bearish signal occurs when the price goes downwards through the bottom of the Kumo. Also all 5 lines can be used to provides levels of support and resistance. Note the Kijun-sen can be the strongest level of support or resistance, it is the equilibrium level and as the market gets over extended price will eventually return to Kijun-sen (equilibrium). Chikou-span prints itself in the past, by using its pivots will also provide strong levels of support and resistance. This illustration is based on the conventional way of trading the ichimoku. The settings can be configured to better fit the market, however I mainly use the default settings. My preferred time frame with ichimoku is on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily charts.
Education
by stephenleachman
18
MY TOOLBOX (MY TECHNICAL TOOLS)My toolbox is a list of technical tools that I implement in my strategies. Each of these technical tools can be used separately or together depending on the strategy, understanding the purpose of each tool and knowing how to apply them within the market is crucial to their accuracy. Below is how I personally apply these technicol tools within my toolbox. Fibonacci Retracement: After price makes an impulse move I use fibonacci retracements to find levels that price can end the retracement and continue back into the direction of the overall trend. The levels I use .386 .50 .764 .786 and .886 percent levels. In a strong trend I Look for price to at least retrace .386 percent of the impulse movie. Many times different triangle patterns will form around this level. The .50 and .618 I like to consider Reasonable retracement levels of the overall trend. The .764 .786 and .886 I like to use on a type of 1, 2 ,3 reversal where price makes a strong impulse move against the trend (A retracement) on this movie is where I draw the fibonacci retracement looking for price not to make a new high or low (continue trend) but rather reverse at the .764 .786 or the .886 percent level. Fibonacci Expansion: After price makes an impulse move and a retracement or consolidation, I then use a fibonacci expansion to find potential targets, where the next impulse move might end. Levels I use .618 - 1.00 and 1.618 percent levels. Note that a 100 percent expansion is an equal mashered move of the first impulse. Andrew's pitchfork: I Use andrew's pitchfork to find the slope of price. The median line I use as a gauge to the strength of that slope. If price is trading in a clear andrews pitchfork (at least 3 touches as support and/or resistance) and if price is trading below the median line then I consider it to be a weaker slop then if price was trading above the median line. these slope lines can act as support and resistance. Simple Moving Average (SMA): I only use the 100 and 200 DAY moving averages on a daily chart as passable support or resistance. Also to provide a longer term directional bias. If the 100 day MA Is above the 200 and price is above both then a quick longer term bios will be bullish and visa versa if the 100 day MA is below the 200 and price is below both then the longer term bios is bearish. The MA cross I would consider as a change or pasibol change in the overall trend. Relative Strength Index (RSI): I use Relative strength index (RSI) as a gauge of momentum and strength of the market. Also I use RSI as a trigger into a trade in certain strategies. I scale my RSI where I can see the 60 and 40 levels and use a 20 period instead of the default 14. I look at 5 levels on the RSI - 70, 60, 50, 40 and 30. If RSI is above 70 its strong bullish momentum. If Above 60 but doesn't pierce 70 bullish momentum. If bouncing from 60 to 40 I consider that a range. and visa versa for bearish momentum, If RSI is below 30, strong bearish momentum. If below 40 but can't pierse below 30 bearish momentum. Note I like to see a 40 hold on a retracement in a uptrend and 60 hold on a retracement in a downtrend. I also watch for divergence as an indication of a reversal and sometimes use trend lines on the RSI for a trigger into a trade. I do this only on a lower time frame 5 or 15 min.
Education
by stephenleachman
6
OPENING RANGES (PROVIDING A MARKET BIAS)A opening range is when the market opens at a particular time such as for the year, month, week and day or session in forex. The market sets a high, a low and reviets those highs and lows but fails to break through creating the range. I personally need to see price test a level at least twice making a type of double top, double bottom forming the range. opening ranges are the same concept as any other type of range, your ether playing inside the range or waiting for a breakout. once price breaks out it becomes a trading opportunity and even more opening ranges can set a direction bias of the market. The types of opening ranges: Daily Or Session in forex open range - Assets traded on an exchange, Look for price to set an OR in the beginning of trade on that exchange. Forex on the other hand watch for the open of the session to set a doble high, doble low and whait for the break. Remember in trading the session Opening range breakout only trade currencies correlated to that session. This is an intraday trade setup and can not be used for a longer term bias. Weekly opening range - In forex the weekly open begins on sunday at 5PM EST, From this time look for the market to set a double high, double low marking the range. Remember that time is not an issue, to set a weekly OR it could take 1 day or a couple of days the most important thing is that it set at least a double top & bottom befor the break. Once price breaks to one side and there's a pullback that's supported, the breakout direction can now also be used as a bias for that week. a lot of times there will be at least 2 impulse moves on a weekly OR break , an impulse move after the pullback consolidation and then another impulse move usually the second impulse move is towards the end of the week. monthly Opening range - I personally don't use monthly OR much but they can give a directional bias for that month. Yearly opening range - which can be used to provide an overall direction for the year. Usually the first couple of months within the year markets will make a large range trying to figure out where it should go Once that range breaks to one side it's a owerful signal that price will continue in that direction for a while. Remember this is a longer term time horizon so yearly OR breaks can lead into big moves. NOTES: I only trade the session and weekly Opening Range breakouts, the monthly and yearly OR breaks I only use for a longer term bias. Trading the OR Breakout is always best to go in the direction of the trend. Conventional Way To Trade The Bullish Opening Range Breakout: -----Breakout----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Buy a break of the top of range. (3)Stop can be place below the range low or 50% retracement of bottom to top of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key resistance level each setup will be different. -----PullBack----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Buy a pullback at the breakout level. (3)Stop can be place below the range low or 50% retracement of bottom to top of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key resistance level each setup will be different. Conventional Way To Trade The Bearish Opening Range Breakout: -----Breakout----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Sell a break of the Bottom of range. (3)Stop can be place above the range high or 50% retracement of top to bottom of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key support level each setup will be different. -----PullBack----- (1) Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2) Sell a pullback at the breakout level. (3) Stop can be place above the range high or 50% retracement of top to bottom of range depending on risk - reward. (4) Target should be structure based at a key support level each setup will be different.
Education
by stephenleachman