EURPLN: Still inside a Rectangle. Support/ Resistance trading.EURPLN is still within a 1W Rectangle (RSI = 49.997, ADX = 15.208, CCI = -49.2070, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) trading sideways within the 4.2660 Support and 4.34100 Resistance. We continue buying near the Support and selling near the Resistance.
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EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Symmetrical triangle in sightThe EUR/PLN currency pair has been trading in symmetrical triangle since the beginning of July. Also, the pair reversed from the upper pattern line located near 4.3282.
Given that currently the rate is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, it is expected that the pair goes downside. A potential target is the lower triangle line located circa 4.2800. Technical indicators for the short term support bearish scenario.
If the pattern does not hold, a breakout south might follow. Important support level to look out for is a combination of the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement and the weekly S2 at 4.2738.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Short-term channel in sightThe US Dollar has been depreciating slightly against the Polish Zloty since the beginning of October. This movement has been bounded in a descending channel.
Given that the rate is supported by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, currently located near 3.740, it is likely that the pair goes upside within following days. If given channel does not hold, a breakout north occurs soon. A potential upside target is the upper boundary of a medium-term channel located circa 3.8400.
Otherwise, it is expected that the pair makes a reverse and aim for the lower channel line located circa 3.6800.
EUR/PLN 1H: Pair tests senior patternThe EUR/PLN exchange rate is trading in two prominent channels. The most senior pattern is an ascending channel which was formed in December 2017, while the more junior one has been guiding the Euro since the beginning of June.
The pair reversed from the senior channel on August 17. It did, however, fail to accelerate, being restricted by the junior channel and the monthly PP at 4.32. As a result, it had returned near the senior channel today.
Two scenarios should be considered. First, in case the senior channel near 4.2650 remains intact, the rate should target the junior channel circa 4.31 and eventually breach it to the upside. Second, bearish sentiment could prevail in the market, thus setting the 200-day SMA and the monthly S1 at 4.2250 as the most probable downside target.
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Pair lingers near channel lineThe US Dollar began accelerating against the Polish Zloty mid-April. Following a test of the 3.35 level, the rate breached the prevailing long-term channel and shot up to the 3.75 area. This movement has been bounded in a new senior channel. Its upper boundary is located at the aforementioned 3.75 mark.
By mid-Monday, the pair was testing its other boundary circa 3.62. Short-term technical signals point to further advance. The nearest level of strong resistance is 3.67 where the 38.20% Fibo and the 100– and 55-period (4H) SMAs are located. A successful breakout of this area should push the pair up to 3.80 or even 3.90.
In case this mark remains intact, it means that bears would be ready to take the dominant hand within the following weeks. As a result, the current senior channel should be breached to the downside just to allow the Greenback to approach 3.55/00.
Head and Shoulders formation. Short near the top of RS.EURPLN has eventually rebounded on the same distance bar from High to Low and is in the process of forming the Right Shoulder of the 1W Head and Shoulders pattern (RSI = 57.116, CCI = 10.8781, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). 4.3273 is a valid point to enter an additional short as the top is projected to be near 4.3400. A conservative TP is 4.25796 with the extension on the 4.23609 support. The 1D Channel Down that should emerge can even target 4.22033.
Previous Target hit. Trading suggesting within a Triangle.The last long TP = 3.81038 was hit and shortly after CHFPLN has started a sharp decline on 1D, which has evolved into a Descending Triangle (RSI = 44.646, STOCH = 47.472). The Highs/Lows = 0.0000, MACD = -0.008, B/BP = -0.0069 indicate that the 3.67500 support will be tested again before a new Lower Low near 3.7000 and a final test of the support before the pattern breaks out. We will trade accordingly.
Channel Down on 1D. Short.EURPLN has switched to a Channel Down on 1D (RSI = 35.852) and despite the slow pace (MACD = -0.016, Highs/Lows = -0.0192, B/BP = -0.0216) can extend (gradually) to a new Lower Low at 4.2200. This is our TP where a short term consolidation is expected (oversold already on STOCH = 19.416, STOCHRSI = 6.677, Williams = -92.202).
Both Targets hit. 1D Channel Up intact. Long.Both TP = 4.34099 and 4.3700 got hit on EURPLN as the price aggressively increased inside the 1D Channel Up. This pattern is still intact and as you see it is testing the lower supporting trendline. With the 1D RSI = 48.813, MACD = 0.004, Highs/Lows = -0.0129, we can assume with a certain degree of technical certainty that the new Higher Low has been placed. The action is Long again with TP = 4.3700 again and 4.41340 (latest High) in extension.
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Medium term declineThe common European currency has been declining since the start of July against the Polish Zloty. The event from a technical perspective began due to the currency rate meeting the upper trend line of a dominant ascending channel pattern. The bounce off resulted in the formation of a descending medium term pattern, which is likely going to guide the rate further.
In regards to the short term future, the pair is set to meet with a combined resistance of the 55 and 200-hour simple moving averages, which strengthen the upper trend line of the descending pattern.
If the rate passes that resistance, the 4.38 level, where the 100-hour SMA is located at, will be targeted.
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Slight upside potential aheadThe Euro has been trading in an ascending channel against the Polish Zloty since late December, 2017. The most recent test of this senior pattern occurred mid-June when the pair reversed from the 4.26 area. It has since been guided by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs in a junior channel up.
Technical indicators on longer-term time-frames demonstrate that there is still some upside potential for a bullish surge. Thus, it is expected that the Euro continues to trade in line with the junior and senior patterns, thus going for a test of the upper wedge line near 4.3750/4.3760 this week. The 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, the monthly R1 and the weekly R2 are likewise located in this territory.
At this point, this upward movement might have exhausted itself, thus letting bears to take over the market. This scenario would be confirmed by a downside breakout of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.
Look for shorts in USDPLNIts OK to short USDPLN as it reached the fib arc level and is forming double top on 4 hours chart. Price will do the Elliot 1-5 wave cycle all the way down to the 0.5 fibonacci level - Gann angle, where it will make Elliott ABC correction and then will go up again...Watch closely the previous patterns as its again repeats the previous moves that I highlighted. The first Elliott wave should be to 0.38 fib level 3.63684 (first TP)
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Euro bound to breach wedgeThe appreciation of EUR/PLN has been guided by a medium-term rising wedge since early April. This has allowed the pair to strengthen by 4.50% up to its one-year high of 4.34 reached on May 30.
It seems that this pattern might soon reach its maturity, thus pointing to a soon breakout. From technical point of view, the bottom boundary of this wedge should surrender. This assumption is likewise supported by technical indicators on the 1D time-frame which are located at the oversold territory. Thus, a medium-term depreciation is the more likely scenario.
In the meantime, the Euro might be reluctant to breach the bottom wedge line near 4.31 on the first occasion, as this level is supported by the 200-hour and 55-period (4H) SMAs. In case upside momentum prevails in the short term, the aforementioned yearly high should remain intact.
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Bearish signals prevailThe EUR/PLN exchange rate has shown no significant changes to its movement during the past two weeks, as it has remained trading in the 4.24/29 trading range.
This movement sideways has occurred near the upper boundaries of both long– and medium-term channels. This situation demonstrates that the pair could be ready to abandon its four-week surge and turn to the downside. This scenario is likewise confirmed by converging technical indicators on the 4H and 1D time-frames.
There is still some slight upside potential that could guide the Euro to the monthly R2 and the weekly R1 at 4.30. This should be followed by a test of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs near 4.2615. A successful breakout of this area should send the pair even lower down to the monthly PP and the weekly S2 at 4.21.