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USD/PLN 4H Chart: Occurring reboundThe US Dollar recently reached the lower trend line of a long term descending channel against the Polish currency. As a result the pair has already formed a short term ascending channel pattern. However, the channel has met with fierce resistance in the form of the monthly S1 at the 3.3760 mark and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located just below it at the 3.3750 mark. Due to that reason this isn’t a set up where one can simply enter. Instead a retail trader should look for the moment, when the mentioned resistance is finally passed. When that occurs, most likely a break out to the upside will occur.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Bearish sentiment allaysThe Euro has depreciated substantially against the Polish Zloty since March 21. The pair reversed from the senior channel located near 4.24 during the given session and began trading in a new channel down. The pair’s trading range within this pattern has diminished, as it has failed to reach its bottom boundary for the past two weeks. This suggests that the Euro might be ready for a bullish breakout. In case this scenario occurs, the pair should target the upper boundary of the senior channel circa 4.22. There are some notable resistance levels along the way that could hinder the pair for some time, including, the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP at 4.1965 and 4.21, respectively. On the other hand, the rate might still edge slightly lower down to a medium-term channel circa 4.17. A fall below the 4.1650 is not expected.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Bearish wave in sightThe common European currency has shown solid growth against the Polish Zloty since February 20. Bulls have managed to push the rate 2.63% higher during this time, thus reaching a four-month peak of 4.2420 earlier today. The pair’s current movement has been confined in an ascending channel. The Euro, however, has failed to maintain the steep positioning and has therefore diminished its trading range. Technical indicators on the four-hour time-frame are located in the overbought region, thus pointing to the beginning of a new medium-term decline. The same message is conveyed by shorter-term indicators, especially when the nearest resistance is set by the strong weekly and monthly R2s circa 4.2425. The expected fall might not be very steep during the following sessions, as the southern barrier is protected by several support levels. Additional bearish momentum should be provided when the Euro breaches the weekly PP, the monthly R1 and the 200-hour SMA at 4.21.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Trades in triangleThe US Dollar has diminished its trading range against the Polish Zloty within the last few months, thus forming a medium-term triangle. After bouncing off the lower boundary of this pattern last week, the pair has entered a minor period of consolidation towards the senior channel located near the 3.42 mark. It is apparent that the pair has been reluctant to edge higher during the last three trading sessions. This might suggest that a test of the senior channel could be followed by a decline, as supported by technical indicators on the weekly time-frame. In case the channel line is breached to the upside, the pair is likely to find resistance near 3.44 prior to approaching the bottom triangle line. A possible downside target for the following two weeks could be the monthly S1 at 3.3450.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
2018 POLAND ECONOMIC GROWTH OFF TO STRONG START, EU GROWTH HELPSPLN has come under pressure after the National Bank of Poland reiterated its dovish stance at its policy meeting yesterday. Governor Glapinski suggested that the NBP may raise rates at the end of 2019 at the earliest, but current projections show no reason to raise rates before the end of 2020. This comes after the NBP revised its inflation forecasts marginally lower in 2018/19 while upgrading its GDP forecasts. Further dovish rhetoric suggesting rates on hold for a prolonged period of time, causing the market to price out hikes, could weigh on PLN from an interest rate differential perspective The NBP is likely to raise rates in 2019, AFTER the ECB. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop in Poland remains very strong, with solid growth and an improving external balance. Moreover, an improving Euro area backdrop should also benefit the zloty. We think such strong growth dynamics will ultimately support gradual PLN gains over the medium term. In addition, valuation looks attractive and the authorities continue to appear comfortable with zloty appreciation. In terms of risks, we acknowledge that we may see the zloty remain under pressure in the near term as rate expectations adjust. Credit to Morgan Stanley Research & Bloomberg wbj.pl
Short
by itzbert
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Surge in medium term expectedFollowing a rebound from a 2,5-year low of 4.1317 late in January, the EUR/PLN exchange began moving higher in an ascending channel. This junior pattern proved to be strong enough to allow for a breakout of the dominant five-month channel last week (dashed lines). Technical indicators suggest that some upside potential still exists in the market. It could be capped near 4.2050 where the upper boundary of a medium-term channel, the monthly and weekly R1s and the 38.20% Fibo retracement are located. Given this significant resistance area, it is likely that the Euro corrects southwards and falls down to the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 4.19. If looking at the pair’s movement during the two following weeks, the medium-term channel could surrender under the bullish pressure, thus paving the way for a surge in the medium term.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/PLN 4H Chart: After breaking long term trendsThe large fundamental changes in the strength of the US Dollar have caused a massive change of direction on the USD/PLN currency pair’s charts. Namely the decline in the US equity markets and the shift in the US monetary policy combined broke the resistance lines of all of the dominant patterns of the USD/PLN. Due to that reason Dukascopy analysts set Fibonacci retracement levels and trend lines to the recent surge. It was discovered that the pair is trading in two ascending channels. Meanwhile, the pair has made a retracement near the 23.60% Fibo. Due to that reason beware near the next retracement level.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Pair stopped by senior channelUSD/PLN is trading in two channels which are guiding its movement. During the past six weeks, the Greenback has been trading sideways in the 3.3085/3.4330 area. Its latest movement upwards, however, was disrupted by the senior channel near the 3.40 mark, thus sending the US Dollar for a minor period of decline. It is likely that this dominant pattern, reinforced by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, the 23.60% Fibo retracement and the monthly PP, pressures the rate even lower during the following sessions. A possible downside target is the 3.36 level where the 200-hour SMA is located. However, the pair should eventually gather enough bullish momentum to approach the upper boundary of the junior channel near 3.4340.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Gradual recovery from many-year lowThe US Dollar has been trading against the Polish Zloty in a descending channel since November, 2016. The bottom boundary of this long-term pattern was tested on January 25 near 3.31—level which also marks the lowest point since mid-2014. The pair has since edged higher; however, it has failed to move away from the senior channel. Meanwhile, the pair’s latest wave down has been bounded by two medium-term channels, the most junior of which was being tested today. The pair is expected to make another decline in this session, as a breakout north is likely to be hindered by the combined resistance of the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 1.3430. However, the bullish sentiment should eventually take over the market, thus allowing for the US Dollar to test a channel line in the 3.38/40 area and subsequently move towards the upper boundary of the most senior pattern.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Wedge demonstrates downside potentialThe Euro has weakened notably against the Polish Zloty within the previous four months. During this time, the pair has diminished its trading range and formed a falling wedge pattern. The most recent test of its upper boundary started on January 19. The rate remained near this line for several sessions, but eventually fell down to the weekly S3 near 4.1350. In line with the prevailing wedge, the pair should decline even further down to its bottom boundary located near the 4.11 mark. This scenario should be realised next week. Meanwhile, it is expected that a brief correction up might be due. This increase in price, however, should not be long-lasting, as the northern side is limited by some notable resistance levels, such as the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well as the weekly and monthly S1s in the 4.1470/4.1600 area.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Falling wedge dominatesEUR/PLN has been constrained by a channel down since mid-September. Given that the Euro has been trading with diminishing trading range, a falling wedge would be more precise depiction. The bottom line of this pattern was tested last week when the rate reversed from the 4.1425 area. Its subsequent movement was tended northwards within a narrow and steep ascending channel. Technical indicators suggest that the rate is likely to edge lower in this session. However, even if the 200-hour SMA is breached, the combined support of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP is located nearby circa 4.1590. This area is expected to provide a strong barrier, thus resulting in a reversal back north. A near-term upside target is the upper wedge boundary and the monthly PP near 4.19.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Highly volatile surgeThe US Dollar is surging against the Polish Zloty in a highly volatile manner. The pattern, which is considered the junior one, has had its both trend lines touched even during a daily timeframe. However, recently the currency exchange rate has been beaten down by a resistance cluster, which does not include the upper trend line of the ascending channel. Due to that reason the various resistance levels just above the 3.59 mark need to be watched closely. Most likely the rate will pass them eventually, as the pair is being supported by the 55-hour simple moving average.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/PLN 4H Chart: Near junior supportThe common European currency recently bounced off a dominant pattern’s resistance level against the Polish Zloty. In the aftermath of that event the currency pair began to plummet until it reached down to the combined support of the monthly PP and the lower trend line of the junior channel up pattern near the 4.2150 mark. However, in accordance with the larger scale situation that should not have occurred, as the pattern should be broken in the future, and a new junior pattern would form. Due to that reason the rebound is likely to be short lived.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USDPLN Short SummaryTrading method: RSADVANTAGE Stage 5, 95% accurate system manually forward tested over 3 years designed to stay out of ranging markets and only target strong trends. This system is made of custom technical indicators that properly detect trends very early and provides exit signals at the possible dynamic S/R zones. Average yearly pips gained is 40k per pair on D1 charts alone. USDPLN Technical Outlook To open SHORT positions for USDPLN , it is required: In this situation for Awesome Osci to go into negative territory alongside of our other system indicators to confirm trade entry confirmation for movement to the downside and but if the market trend continues to range this signal will become invalid. Market execution for entry, I will confirm signal once the conditions have been met but for now I have entered a small lot position at 3.58208. Risk Description: Once signal is confirmed 108 pips will be up for grab with small risk SL at swing high. Profit expectations: 1-2 day trade length expected before hitting profit target I will post exit strategy when signal receives a exit signal.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn1372988
EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Pair confined by three channelsThe Euro’s movement against the Polish Zloty has been guide by several patterns since mid-September. The dominant one is a steep channel down. Its latest wave lacked direction, thus it could be characterized as a period of consolidation as a result of which another channel was formed. Meanwhile, the Euro bounced off the senior channel last week and has since began to edge lower towards the bottom boundary of the intermediate pattern located circa 4.2050. Technical indicators suggest that the pair could make a minor correction during the following day towards the support massive resistance cluster in the 4.2270/4.2350 area. Subsequently, the rate is expected to push for the intermediate channel, thus falling down to the aforementioned 4.2050 mark or the monthly S1 at 4.1920. By and large, given the steepness of the senior channel, it is likely that the Euro respects the intermediate channel more and thus breaches the former within the following week.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Greenback tended southwardsThe US Dollar is trading in three channels simultaneously against the Polish Zloty. The senior pattern has confined the rate for the last seven months. If looking at the pair’s movement two weeks ago, it is apparent that the senior channel took the upper hand over a more junior formation, as the rate halted near the 3.67 mark, thus failing to reach the upper boundary of the medium-term channel near 3.72. Currently, the rate is trading in a three-week channel down. Technical indicators signal that the Greenback might still edge slightly higher within the following two sessions, but reverse near the 200-hour SMA circa 3.62/63. The subsequent movement should be tended south in the short term down to the 3.57 mark where the weekly and monthly S1s and the lower boundary of the medium channel are located. This area could mark a minor correction upwards.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/PLN 1H Chart: US Dollar breaches long-term channelUSD/PLN had been trading in a descending channel in force since mid-November, 2016. After breaching this pattern last week, the Greenback retraced from its upper boundary early on Monday. Thus, the dominant pattern now is an ascending channel which was formed mid-July. The rate’s trading range within this pattern has diminished, as it has failed to touch the bottom channel boundary on two separate occasions. From theoretical point of view, the breakout from the senior channel should be followed by a surge. This is likewise supported by the pair’s upward-sloping movement in the junior channel. The rate is supported by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, the weekly and monthly PP and the weekly S1 in the 3.64/3.60 territory. In general, it is likely that one of these levels pressures the US Dollar for a reversal, thus paving the way for a surge in the medium-term.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690