USDPLN USD/PLN1 cycle is around 40 mnths (from lowest point to lowest poin)
every 2nd cycle - new hight of USD to PLN
PLNUSD
PLN/TRY Strong Buy
Fundamentally the Poland economy is showing green signs to recover,while new crisis
ae threathenning Turkish economy
Technically
A long solide series of Higher Highs and Highe Lows is giving a stong bullish picture
The Bullish volume is creating more often while
the short setups get quickly stopped by very low volumes.
PLN boke aleady 20-50-76 and 193 Higher highs succesfully by veyy high volumes that indicates the beakouts have been valid.
The strategy is trend. One possibilitiy is to buy the minor trends pullbacks in direction
of the major trend
Time to short the Polish ZlotyThe idea is very simple... Despite it having a significantly higher interest rate than the US, capital isn't flowing in the country. Poland is in a very tough place right now, as it has a relatively small economy and doesn't have a currency that is widely used. Europe overall is a big mess, and the PLN is affected by the EUR too. The ECB still has rates at -0.5% and Poland has rates at 6%, yet EURPLN is near its ATHs. In the charts below you can see how bad EURUSD looks, which I think will go below 1.03 to sweep the lows and then maybe bounce for a while, and how EURPLN might have formed a massive top. Therefore it might be a better idea to short EURUSD than going long USDPLN (short PLNUSD), as it will have a lower carry.
Yet the structure of USDPLN is much cleaner, and a breakout could be massive. I definitely expect to see the USDPLN highs swept, then a pullback and then continuation higher. This consolidation looks very bullish, and a breakout would potentially lead to a major expansion over time. The main fundamentals behind this is that Poland can't sustain such high rates with such high energy prices as the economy will collapse, and at the same time it does look like Poland would be one of the next countries that Russia will attack. Unfortunately it feels like a matter of time until Russia fully conquers Ukraine, something that will hurt Poland very badly due to its ties with Ukraine, and then it feels like a matter of time until they begin their next war.
