$SPY Daily Chart Taz Plan - May 2025 into June-July Breakdown📉 SPY Daily Chart Trading Plan — May 2025
Thesis:
Price has returned to the exact level ($594.20) where the February impulse breakdown began. This zone is acting as a Lower High rejection within a broader bearish structure. A clean rejection here opens the door to multiple inefficiency fills below.
🔍 Structure Breakdown:
Feb High (ATH): $613.23
Feb Open: $592.67
Feb Close (last green candle before impulse): $594.20
Current Price: $594.20
Marked LH: $592.50
This is a rally back into rejection, not strength.
📉 Key Zones & Gaps:
🔺 Gap Supply: $566.48 – $578.50
🔺 Wick Gap: $558 – $566 → Needs a full-body candle to initiate fill
🟥 FVG (4/22): $528 – $541.52
🧱 Major Support: $481.80
🧠 Trade Plan:
Short Entry 1 (Confirmation-Based):
🔻 Red candle rejection under $592.50 = starter short
🔻 Watch RSI and MACD for momentum fade
Short Entry 2 (Gap Breach):
🔻 If $578 is broken and retested → scale in
🔻 Gap fill expected quickly once triggered
Short Entry 3 (Wick Gap):
🔻 Body close through $558 = last add
🔻 Sets up for final flush to FVG
🎯 Targets:
$578.50 → $566.48 (Gap Fill)
$558 → $541.52 (Wick Gap & FVG Top)
$528 – $530 (FVG Close)
$481.80 (Long-Term Panic Target)
❌ Invalidation:
Daily close > $595.50 = Pause thesis
Weekly close > $600 = Structural shift, short squeeze zone
🧠 Final Thoughts:
This isn’t just a gap fill play — it’s a structural fade from a lower high back into memory. The Feb impulse wave left behind layers of inefficiency, and price just tapped the origin of the breakdown.
Momentum is peaking. If this is a trap, the downside should begin immediately.
Let the chart prove it.
