Buy or Sell PLTR?Overview
Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ) is a software company involved in data analytics and operations management. Its primary revenue is generated by subscriptions and government contracts. PLTR has been making headlines as a growth stock so the question remains, is it too late to get in on the action? The truth is that nobody knows so this is where the savvy investors will shine.
Fundamental Analysis
The stock is overvalued with a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 494. A massive P/E ratio tells you one of two things: (1) the stock is overweight and due for a correction or (2) there are high expectations for strong growth. The P/E ratio isn't the end all be all, but it's worth knowing to get a pulse on market sentiments.
YTD (EPS) Earnings-Per-Share: $390,982,000 / 2,459,589,000 = $0.16
(Q3 Nine Months Ended Net Income) / (Q3 Total Diluted Shares) = YTD EPS
P/E Ratio: 79.08 / 0.16 = 494.25
(Current Market Price) / (EPS) = P/E Ratio
This could be an exciting time to invest in PLTR, but precautions should be taken in the event that the Q4 Annual Report falls short of expectations and sends the share price barreling downwards. Expectations vary per analyst but here is what I would like to see on the next Earnings Release on Feb 12, 2025:
2024 Annual Revenue (approx): $2.9B (+30.34%)
2024 Annual Basic EPS (approx): $0.20 (+100.00%)
Q4 Revenue (approx): $849M (+17.02%)
Q4 Basic EPS (approx): $0.09 (+28.57%)
Since 2020, Palantir has experienced an average annual growth rate of 89.05% and became a profitable company in Q1 of 2023 (earnings released May 9, 2023). The share price has grown tenfold since then. If Palantir can maintain profitability and reliable growth, then the rally is probably far from being over.
Technical Analysis
There are no reliable technical patterns that can provide trading confidence at this moment. In times like this, I feel that less is more. I am only utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels and drawing basic support lines to dictate the depth of potential corrections. The use of oscillators such as MACD and RSI seem like they may prove to be more misleading than helpful.
Scenario 1:
If the share price continues to rally, then my short-term price target would be between $111 & $123 before I would expect to see any resistance. In the event mixed sentiments continue then Support 1 (white line) may not see the bulls taking control again until the price drops around $76.50. The 78.6% Fib level rests at $75.31 so any further drops from this price level would leave me hopeful of a strong support around $63.
Scenario 2:
If Support 1 fails entirely then Support 2 (yellow line) would likely contain the next significant support level. The share price could drop to as low as the mid 50s where there is a 50% Fib level.
Potential Trading Strategies
Getting a pulse on the market and financial health of a public company goes a long way to provide confidence, however, it's not airtight. A poor earnings release or unexpected bad news could deteriorate an investment in a short amount of time. Rather than staying out when in doubt, I've always enjoyed safely expanding my experience and awareness of available tools.
Stop-Loss Limit Orders
If I don't feel like supplementing my investment with derivatives then I place a stop-loss limit order to execute at whichever price level shakes my confidence. If the share price hits my stop-loss level then the next condition that needs to be met is my limit price. If the stop-loss was activated and the share price remains above my limit price, then it will automatically try to sell all of my specified shares at my limit price or higher.
Protective Puts:
Options contracts can be very intimidating for investors that aren't familiar with them. However, knowledge is power and options contracts can be very beneficial when used correctly. Whenever I buy shares in a company that I think is going to grow, but contradicts my impression of market direction, then I buy Protective Puts to shield my investment and give me peace of mind. This can either complement stop-loss orders or provide me the confidence to withstand turbulent price fluctuations without the risk of exiting my positions prematurely in the event that a stop-loss would become activated.
Cash-Secured Puts:
I'm new to writing contracts but I can see the allure. If I'm not confident that a share price is about to rally, or if I think that it may dip significantly, then I would consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy. My initial shares purchase would be a fraction of my available funds with the intentions of exposing my portfolio should the stock rally sooner than expected. In the meantime, I would write/sell Put contracts at strike price levels that I am both capable and comfortable of purchasing 100 shares per contract at. This strategy minimizes my exposure to gains and losses, while allowing me to collect premiums.
If those Cash-Secured Puts were exercised, then I would purchase 100 shares per contract at the contracts' strike price(s). This would effectively lower my cost-basis. If those contracts expire worthless then I get to keep the premium and my cash is freed up. If the stock begins to rally and I want to bail on my contract obligations so that I can get in on it, then I can buy-to-close the Puts at their lowered price and keep the difference as profits.
PLTR
Nvidia or Broadcom? Who will be the winner ? How big is the custom chip market?
By 2027, the custom chip market is expected to reach $90 billion. What does this mean for Nvidia?
Nvidia vs. Custom Chips
In the custom chip (ASIC) sector, two major players, Broadcom ( NASDAQ:AVGO ) and Marvell ( NASDAQ:MRVL ), have overshadowed Nvidia. Since the end of Q2, they have outperformed the tech giant by approximately 30% and 50%, respectively.
With tech giants like Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Google ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ), and Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) developing and accelerating the production of their own chips, the market has finally recognized the huge opportunities in custom chips.
How big is the custom chip market?
Based on comments from the two leading custom chip players, we estimate that by 2027, the custom chip market will grow to $90 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60%. Earlier this year, Marvell offered a more conservative forecast, predicting that the market will reach $75 billion by 2028, but with early customer growth suggesting further upside potential. Broadcom’s forecast is even more impressive, estimating the market could reach anywhere from $60 billion to $90 billion by 2027.
Both companies have strong platforms. Marvell’s biggest customers are Amazon and Microsoft, and after gaining deeper insight into their growth, they suggest Marvell’s market prediction might be conservative. Broadcom’s top clients include Google, Meta, and ByteDance, all of whom plan to shift to clusters of one million XPU units by FY2027. Reports also suggest that Broadcom has secured two additional customers (potentially Apple and OpenAI).
What does this mean for Nvidia?
Nvidia’s stock price is currently consolidating, and even when using enterprise value (EV)/EBITDA as a metric, its valuation is now below that of Marvell and Broadcom.
Source: Bloomberg,Spear Invest
Investors now expect Nvidia’s market share to significantly decline by 2027, leading to slower revenue growth. However, the market has underestimated two key factors:
The strength of CUDA.
The yearly product improvement cycle.
I believe CUDA holds a powerful advantage that will reduce the pressure on cloud service providers (CSPs) to promote custom chips at scale. Given that the cloud market accounts for about 50% of the total market, I believe that capturing half of this market between 2027 and 2030 would be a major win for custom chip providers.
Currently, the market assumes, based on comments from Broadcom’s CEO, that most CSP revenue will flow to custom chip vendors, but Broadcom’s assumption may be overly optimistic. Furthermore, whether custom chips can keep up with Nvidia’s yearly product launch cycle remains to be seen—Nvidia’s new products consistently show significant performance improvements with each generation. Our best estimate is that Nvidia’s competitors are still on an innovation cycle of about 1 to 2 years behind Nvidia.
Source: Bloomberg,Spear Invest
Nonetheless, the AI industry chain, especially in the medium to long term, will continue to benefit. For example, AI + Generative Content (AIGC) companies like Adobe ( NASDAQ:ADBE ) and Unity Software ( NYSE:U ), AI + Software companies like Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ), AI + Insurance companies like AIX Inc. ( NASDAQ:AIFU ), and AI + Financial companies like Block ( NYSE:SQ ) will all benefit.
Next Small AI Stock Poised for a Breakout: $AIFU Next Small AI Stock Poised for a Breakout: NASDAQ:AIFU
AI stocks are the talk of the market, with explosive growth seen across the sector. Take NASDAQ:PDYN , for instance—it doubled in just two days! After digging into patterns behind such surges, I’ve spotted a small AI stock, NASDAQ:AIFU , that’s showing similar breakout potential.
### Why NASDAQ:AIFU Looks Promising:
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NASDAQ:AIFU ’s chart mirrors NASDAQ:PDYN ’s pre-surge behavior, forming a triangular consolidation pattern. With the stock near the apex and increasing volume, a breakout appears imminent.
2. Volume Spike:
Recent volume expansion is strikingly similar to NASDAQ:PDYN ’s activity before its massive price jumps, signaling heightened investor interest.
3. Fundamental Catalyst:
NASDAQ:AIFU recently completed a significant merger with BGM, which valued its assets far higher than expected. This deal is set to generate a notable accounting profit, likely to be reflected in its next earnings report—a potential game-changer.
### The Bottom Line:
Combining strong technical signals with a powerful fundamental catalyst, NASDAQ:AIFU could be the next big AI stock to surge. If you’re hunting for a hidden gem in the AI sector, keep an eye on this one!
PLTR volatility ahead! more volatility ahead as market digests decreased Fed funds rate cuts in 2025.
buy target at 90$ AFTER we fill the gap on 15min chart near 71.2-71.5 level imo..
looking to trade this setup via 80$ strike call option contracts for 1/10/25 & 1/17/25 expiration dates
after 90$ is reached, still anticipating additional volatility back down to 65-68$ range one final time before Inauguration Day. After that, I think this turns strongly bullish once again and runs above 100$
12/22/24 Weekly Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Huge sell off across the board from FOMC news on Wednesday. SPY sold off down through previous Broadening Formation range reclaiming previous downside pivot just below 684. So with that in mind, we expand out of the BF below that pivotal low, or come back through range above it. With SPY currently setup to potentially go 3-2 daily, we look to see whether fridays high or low gets taken out. Being above the pivot at 684, we are looking to come back through that BF range and make new ATHs as of now. Of course this can all change depending on whether our W is green or red, but for now we are closer to making a daily HH than a LL. With Christmas being this week, the markets close 2 hours early on Tuesday, and re open on Thursday. Being a short week like this, we need to be extra cautious as there will be lower than normal volume, and simply less time for the weekly candle to form, so expectations on a large move this week as most seem to be predicting, may not happen for the prior reasons. Personally will not be trading Tuesday and possibly not at all this week if I don't see absolute A+ setups.
Watchlist:
Bullish:
NASDAQ:NVDA - Pot. 1-3-2U Daily to trigger failed 2D hammer week. Swept BF lows this past week. Looking to come back through range. This is a big name for the markets, so I expect that if the markets are recovering, this will lead the way or follow with it
NASDAQ:MU - 2-2U reversal potential daily to target gap fill from ER. We took out weekly BF mag on friday, hitting exhaustion levels after finally escaping the motherbar it was stuck in for the last 11 weeks. One side gets toasted, magnitude is hit for W and M. All the ingredients for a big recovery. Only issue is being stuck in last weeks range
NASDAQ:PLTR - potential 3-2D for a simultaneous weekly 2-1-2U trigger. Nuclear green on all TFs. Slight room to go to target ATH again, but mainly looking for the weekly inside up measured move, meaning if we go 2-1-2U, we can expect the same move up as we had in the week prior to last weeks inside bar week.
Cruise Lines: NYSE:CCL + NYSE:NCLH Weekly hammers. NYSE:RCL Not a clean weekly AS, but similar daily to other names in the industry.
Bearish:
NASDAQ:TSLA - 3-1 4Hr to trigger MoMo shooter Daily to trigger Shooter Weekly 2-2. Daily PMG to target from ATH Exhaustion. (Big green day for most names Friday, why was TSLA so bearish with such relative strength lately?)
NASDAQ:AVGO - Shooter 2U Day to trigger 2-2 shooter week. Huge gap up from earnings. Looking to attack the gap.
NYSE:KO - MoMo Shooter 2D day to trigger 2-1-2D week. Having issues making range lately, but daily BF is targeting lower still, and weekly 2-2d has yet to be negated. Inside week will confirm more downside to target our BF magnitudes on the D and W, or it will be negated by a 2U week. Simple plan here. Short under prev week low, exit if back above.
NYSE:UBER - MoMo shooter 2d Weekly to reconfirm M 2D and Q 2U going 3. Check Monthly for the BF. Wanna see continuation lower to Q mag at 54.84. No daily AS but 3-1 4HR. May be a slower mover on the list. Basing all my decisions on the weekly as the momo shooter should simply just trigger and work
Price target $35 remaining underweight for FY 2025- Ugly draw downs for NASDAQ:PLTR next year.
- Fundamentals don't support the rosy valuation. Stock is priced more than perfection.
- Investors expectations are way to high and will met with disappointment in upcoming quarters in FY 2025
- FY 2025 will likely trap bulls and lead to severe corrections at much lower levels than Twitter bulls claiming PLTR to the moon 100+
Palantir: Target Zone Ahead!We now primarily assume that Palantir’s turquoise wave 3 has concluded at $82.72. For the ongoing turquoise wave 4, we have outlined a matching Target Zone (coordinates: $59.15 – $51.84), where the price should complete its interim correction and realize an upward trend reversal. However, as part of our alternative scenario, there is a 33% chance that the price will surpass the $82.72 mark directly to develop a higher high of the turquoise wave alt. 3.
Doesn't make any sense a drop, right?It makes no sense that this company is dropping today, but there is a reason for it: it was forming this massive symmetrical triangle that aims to take us to a new high. In fact, it left two vectors with a formation waiting to be completed, perhaps today or during this important week of the FED meeting.
PLTR to $80 by EOYPLTR had a great day today, and has had a great month so far following an earnings report that beat estimates. Using the Magic Linear Regression Channel we can see that PLTR broke out of a 2-year long channel at the beginning of the month (November 2024) following it's earnings report.
This means that its price structure has a brand new change of character. Using a second Magic Linear Regression Channel , we can create a new channel based on the pivot high prior to earnings and the pivot high prior to today. However, PLTR is also breaking out of that channel. By adding an additional outer Fibonacci band to the new channel, we can see that PLTR has a potential area of interest at around $80 - a 10% move.
If the new channel is valid, then this can be the first area where we might see a correction in a bullish scenario. Since PLTR is already at the top of the new channel, it could potentially bounce back from there, but it's already moving up in post-market trading, so, I'm guessing that bearish scenario is less likely.
Barring some crazy world events, I'm guessing we can see a steady move to $80 before seeing any kind of major correction.
Is $POET the next AI RUNNER?! 86% UPSIDENASDAQ:POET
A great looking H5 Setup that just needs a breakout!
Warning: High Risk/ High Reward Small Cap
-H5 indicator is GREEN
-Pennant breakout that needs a retest. Measured move is $6.13 which puts us to a breakout of the Cup&Handle!
-Williams Consolidation Box needs to create support and bounce in order to be live! A big pullback to retest the Pennant breakout then bounce would be a perfect area for an entry into this trade.
-Large Volume Shelf with nothing but SPACE above.
📏$6.13 🎯$7.75 📏$11
Not Financial Advice - NFA
BUY OPPORTUNITY COMINGPLTR has been slow to get off the ground, but treading below 30 has proven to be strong long term accumulation. That said, while the structure is a little unclear due to it’s recent parabolic nature, there is evidence in possible counts that a pullback is near, and will possibly create a buying opportunity. With the lack of weekly divergence, I would lean toward a wave three top being near, with a target in the 70 zone. The wave 4 pullback will like target the 50 zone, but could be as low as the 40 zone. If correct, I see value in buying the dip for long term growth.
PLTR: Bears are gonna hate me for this one...We're just getting started.
Based on wave theory we're technically on wave 3 of our impulse moves (which is always the strongest). We may reach 68 or even 78-80 for a 423.6% extension before correction wave 4.
From there, I believe 2025 will continue to be a bullish year and the final wave 5 will take us to further heights, at least to 120-140
The thesis for PLTR that everyone will be talking about -- which many Palantarians who have been investing since 6 - 15 -- is that their total addressable market... Is total. I mean, everything. Palantir's software will be in every enterprise, every government system, a part of every operating system.
The valuation does not, I repeat does not matter when within an impulse move. That's the point of the impulse.
Best of luck everyone. This isn't me telling you to trade or do anything. Just presenting what I believe I see.
PLTR: Holding Above its Critical Support Line!Daily Chart (Left)
Pullback Signal: There’s a potential pullback signal on the daily chart, indicated by the yestterday's bearish candle, and PLTR is trying to lose its low today. This could suggest that the price may retrace to lower levels before resuming its trend, however, it needs to lose its key short-term support level first, which we'll talk about soon.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The chart includes Fibonacci levels, with 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement lines drawn as potential support zones for the pullback. These levels are likely areas where buyers may step in if the stock pulls back further.
EMA Support: The 21-day EMA is positioned below the current price, acting as dynamic support. The stock remains above this EMA, indicating a bullish trend, although a pullback to the EMA could be possible.
Hourly Chart (Right)
Short-Term Support at $58.57: The hourly chart shows $58.57 as a significant short-term support level. Holding above this level is crucial for the stock to maintain its upward momentum in the short term. If PLTR loses it, then it'll possibly trigger a mid-term correction to its support levels described on the daily chart.
Trading Implications:
PLTR is experiencing a potential pullback after a strong rally. The $58.57 level on the hourly chart is a critical support to watch. If PLTR fails to hold above it, then the retraments will be our next stop, and then we'll see if PLTR will be a buy again or not.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
$PLTR Potential Movement (11/11/24)What a week for $PLTR! There’s a new heavyweight in the game, and they’re here to stay. With no clear resistance in sight, let’s turn our focus to the key support zones:
We’ve got a higher high and break of structure at $58.28, the closest to the current price, followed by another at $56.24, and a higher low at $53.91.
Keep these levels on your radar—any bounce here could fuel another strong run!
As always, stay disciplined and lock in those profits!
David
Diz-Plin Trading
PALANTIR: Extremely overbought. High probability sell to $40.Palantir is vastly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 79.771, MACD = 3.330, ADX = 33.075), even the 1W RSI is on extreme levels (80.789) and that alone would be a good enough reason to sell. The picture gets even clearer on the 1W timeframe where the price has almost reached the top of the 2 year Channel Up, having completed a +241.84% rise from the January 2nd 2024 bottom and almost +172.53% rise from the August 5th bottom. Those are the symmetrical rally levels from the December 27th 2022 and May 1st 2023 Lows respectively. The result on that HH rejection was a test of the 0.382 Fibonacci level. That is our target (TP = 40.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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PLTR Back to ATHsBounced off the .382 fib retracement with only ATH remaining. Lots of bullish momentum and TA has been smooth as well. Possible S&P 500 inclusion in September could also be driving price action from "smart money."
Flow into calls has been increasing with a few big orders above ATH have been spotted
Can a Crystal Ball Really Predict the Future of Tech?In an era where artificial intelligence promises to reshape the technological landscape, Palantir Technologies has emerged as a testament to the power of long-term vision meeting present opportunity. The company's remarkable third-quarter performance, marked by a 30% revenue surge to $725.5 million and doubled net income, isn't merely a financial triumph—it's a validation of two decades spent perfecting the art of data analytics while others were still grappling with its fundamentals.
What sets this trajectory apart is Palantir's unique ability to bridge two seemingly disparate worlds. On one side, its deep-rooted expertise in government and defense contracts, evidenced by a 40% growth in U.S. government sales to $320 million, demonstrates unparalleled capability in handling sensitive, mission-critical data. On the other, its commercial division's explosive growth, particularly in the U.S. market with a 54% revenue increase, reveals an organization that has successfully translated complex government-grade technology into practical business solutions.
The company's strategic positioning, however, tells a more intriguing story beyond the numbers. While competitors scramble to adapt to the AI revolution, Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) represents the culmination of years spent understanding the nuances of data integration and security. This foundation, combined with innovative approaches like their hands-on "boot camps" where clients work directly with Palantir engineers, suggests that perhaps the company named after Tolkien's all-seeing orbs has indeed developed a knack for anticipating the future of enterprise technology.
PLTR: Explosive Move! New ATH After Earnings Report.Daily Chart (Left)
Explosive Move: The price surged more than 20% following a strong earnings release, indicating high investor interest and strong buying momentum.
New Support at $45: The $45 level, previously acting as resistance, now serves as a potential support according to the principle of polarity. Monitoring this level is crucial for any pullbacks or consolidations. Therefore, even if we see PLTR losing momentum, any pullback to the $45 won't ruin the uptrend.
Strong Uptrend: The moving average (21 EMA) supports the ongoing bullish trend, with the price well above it.
Weekly Chart (Right)
All-Time High Breakout: The price has broken past its previous all-time high, confirming strong bullish momentum on a larger time frame.
Sustained Upward Trend: The consistent uptrend since mid-2023 continues with increasing strength, supported by a steep rise in the weekly 21 EMA.
Trading Implications:
PLTR is currently experiencing strong bullish momentum, marked by an impressive breakout following earnings. The $45 level is crucial to watch for potential support on pullbacks. The trend remains bullish as long as the price stays above the 21 EMA and the support level holds.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Clear Winner in Enterprise AI | Over $45, We're Long to $70NYSE:PLTR
Palantir has proven they are the clear leader in enterprise AI. This company has a massive runway. 30% year-over-year growth, 38% margin, Rule of 40 score of 68.
Think $NASDAQ:NVDA.
Our entries are stacked down at $7-$10. However, there is a bullish trade here above $45 to trade to our next long-term target of $70. To play it safe, we will be taking some profit mid-$60s while holding the majority of our position long-term. We expect this to be a $10 trillion dollar company.