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Pltrlong

OI, DOW & MANIPULATION - Palantir $PLTR - Short Iron ButterflyWhen 400~ institutions are crowding a stock, and the biggest of names are playing MM. I want to use them as a shield, and poke out from behind them to stab little by little. This is my all-time favorite options strategy, and it can be used under very specific conditions.. 1. Accumulation/Distribution Phase is identified (Dow Theory). 2. Range-bound movement and a sharp fall in volatility is forecasted (Ascendance/Participation Phase, with clear indication of Ranging Market, Supply/Demand levels). 3. Breakout is forecasted, and there exists great momentum, high premia and implied volatility (Excess forecasted). 4. Personal trend bias (bullish long-term outlook on company, Value investing, Trend). It is the ultimate premium harvesting strategy... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Short Iron Butterfly Spread: "Goal: To profit from neutral stock price action near the strike price of the short options (center strike) with limited risk. A short iron butterfly spread is the strategy of choice when the forecast is for stock price action near the center strike price of the spread, because it profits from time decay. However, unlike a short straddle, the potential risk of a short iron butterfly spread is limited. Explanation: Example of short iron butterfly spread: Buy 1 XYZ 95 Put at 1.20 (1.20) Sell 1 XYZ 100 Put at 3.20 3.20 Sell 1 XYZ 100 Call at 3.30 3.30 Buy 1 XYZ 105 Call at 1.40 (1.40) Net Credit = 3.90 A short iron butterfly spread is a four-part strategy consisting of a bull put spread and a bear call spread in which the short put and short call have the same strike price. All options have the same expiration date, and the three strike prices are equidistant. In the example above, one 95 Put is purchased, one 100 put is sold, one 100 Call is sold and one 105 Call is purchased. This strategy is established for a net credit, and both the potential profit and maximum risk are limited. The maximum profit is realized if the stock price is equal to the strike price of the short options (center strike) on the expiration date. The maximum risk is the difference between the lower and center strike prices less the net credit received. The maximum risk is realized if the stock price is above the highest strike price or below the lowest strike price at expiration. Maximum profit: The maximum profit potential is equal to the net credit received less commissions, and this profit is realized if the stock price is equal to the strike price of the short options (center strike) at expiration. In this outcome, all options expire worthless and the net credit is kept as income. Maximum risk: The maximum risk is equal to the difference between the lowest and middle strike prices less the net credit received. In the example above, the difference between the lowest and middle strike prices is 5.00, and the net credit received is 3.90, not including commissions. The maximum risk, therefore, is 1.10 less commissions." - Taken from Fidelity ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SPECULATION: - Why will SP rally 30%+ early in the week? - SP has just transitioned out of 2nd accumulation level, entering ascendance/public participation phase. - Price target upgrades from previously bearish institutions suggest they want to markup the SP. - Previous price action suggests that it opens strong on hype and positive catalysts, before entering a range to trap retail bulls. - There are Fib levels at 33~ and 35~ that must be tested for confirmation. - There is a gap to fill at 32~ for further confirmation. - Frenzied buying will soon come to an end, as the SP stabilizes. It is currently trending as "The top interest for WSB". IV will rise at first. - Large stopping volume will occur at key OI levels as Excess is sold off and we enter the 2nd distribution level. IV will quickly fall. - There is 16,286 OI on 40 strike calls for 2/26, so I don't foresee this level being broken for long next week... Above it is a gamma ramp that will take the SP to clear skies... I'm not sure the MM will allow that. - The broader market is uncertain, and a lot can change over the weekend, but judging from the low GEX, and DIX that seems to be bouncing, the market does not seem ready for a correction, yet... - Bitcoin is a good indicator for risk asset spending nowadays... Watch for huge selloff before market open, decide if it is profit-taking, or corrective. FA: - Please see my Jan. 8 Idea which documents the Fundamental Analysis I have been doing on this company. - Simply put, this company is unrivalled, and a near-future mega-company. 0.5-1T Mcap, very, very soon. SP500 inclusion without a question. TA: - Have very powerful bullish reversal indicators as support, based on my Feb. 18 Forecast. - This should take the stock price to the 60-70 levels that I forecasted in Jan. 8. QA: - Basis of the strategy is the complete control of MM's on the SP... Only a gamma squeeze can break through the key OI levels, Cohen is notorious for his put/call walls strategy, and he most definitely has a hand in the MM action here... As of Q4, his Point72 owns about 2% of the company. Much greater now, I speculate. - Historical analysis has shown that it is almost impossible for PLTR to break through the large put/call walls, and quickly reverts to the mean if it ever does. - The SP will tend to settle around the OI "valleys" at options expiration (OpEx), and quite often, it is even at the exact value to 2 decimals. - PLTR key open interest levels for 3/5/2021: $35 calls: 14,464 $35 puts: 11,776 $45 calls: 11,311 $45 puts: 8,667 $50 calls: 14,898 $50 puts: 13,168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ STRATEGY: - Deep ITM Bullish Short Iron Butterfly for 3/5/2021, then rollover to Deep ITM Bearish Short Iron Butterfly for 3/5/2021 for the expiration. - Goal is to capture the great premium of puts before the rally, then capture the premium of the calls + puts on the pullback, for expiry. - Wings will protect the trade from forecast failure and a massive gamma squeeze in either direction. - Why I am taking this trade, is because of the historical analysis I have done since Jan. 8, and I have gathered sufficient evidence of the manipulation on this SP, and I believe that I can predict the price action to a high degree of accuracy. I don't see why the MM's would suddenly stop the range-bound price action, unless a real gamma squeeze occurs... but the wings and core long positions protect against this. - Trigger 1: Stable broader market, positive catalyst, good sentiment, 32 gap fill, breaking out of 33 and 35 Fib levels for greater confirmation. - Butterfly 1: Strike - $49.00, Upper wing - $55.00, Lower wing - $43.00. - Trigger 2: SP reaches $49.00 on impulse wave. - Rollover: SP - $49.00, to Butterfly 2. - Butterfly 2: Strike - $41.00, Upper wing - $45.00, Lower wing - $37.00. - SL: $46.00 support level pin. - Expiration: 3/5/2021 - Timeframe: 14 days DEFENSE: - How to defend the position, if things go south? If the short call in a short iron butterfly is assigned, then 100 shares of stock are sold short and the long call and both puts remain open. If a short stock position is not wanted, it can be closed in one of two ways. First, 100 shares can be purchased in the marketplace. Second, the short 100-share position can be closed by exercising the long call. Remember, however, that exercising a long call will forfeit the time value of that call. Therefore, it is generally preferable to buy shares to close the short stock position and then sell the long call. This two-part action recovers the time value of the long call. One caveat is commissions. Buying shares to cover the short stock position and then selling the long call is only advantageous if the commissions are less than the time value of the long call. - This strategy has a heavy bullish bias, so the chances of being assigned on puts are much higher than on the calls... If the SP does reach beyond, this is good for my core long position. - The biggest risk in this trade that I foresee is the SP pinned at the $46 support level, which lies between the strike price and the upper wing, of butterfly 1. - However, high premia of deep ITM options mitigates this risk. - $46 Short Straddle would be a good defense to this scenario, (Sell call, sell put) since $46 is a high probability level for 3/5 expiry. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ This strategy can be high risk, depending on the long-term outlook on this company... For me, I don't mind being assigned at these levels, and I have a core long position, so it is low risk. The strategy is based on forecasting the price action precisely, not only the levels, but the time frame. That said, this is most definitely not financial advice. I am describing my own strategy. If you like the idea, please support by giving a like, follow, and sub!
PLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
5
PLTR to the MOONPLTR has been consolidating since late November before spiking up late January due to it trending in r/wallsreetbets. This probably leads to many retail investors started to look into PLTR business, and I believe some also considered taking long positions in between 35 - 40ish price area. However quite a number of investors are also contemplating as it is nears lockup period which allows initial shareholders to finally cash in on the previous PLTR rally. Price dropped at 25 but we saw heavy volume on that day, probably due to ARK Invest doubling down on their position. On Friday the price gapped up with stronger than ever volume, at this price I believe many will start to jump on the bandwagon. Short term investor will look at this having a nice risk-reward ratio, while long term investor would not hesitate to finally open their position as the price is already at a great discount.
PLong
by nuss1010
UNRIVALLED - Palantir Technologies $PLTR - The Final Alert“We’ve seen this before with other lockups. People sell them leading up to the lockup period expiring, and then they have a bit of a relief rally,” said Ryan Jacob, chief executive of the Jacob Funds, which does not own Facebook shares. In August, shares of the online reviews website Yelp Inc surged by more than 20 percent on the day that insider trading restrictions expired. That stock’s rally was boosted as short-sellers scrambled to cover their positions when the expected flood of selling failed to materialize, say analysts. - Reuters, on Facebook lockup expiration At last, the end game has arrived for Palantir. I have been working on this trade since before my Jan.8 Idea, and now it all comes to fruition! As of today, lockup expiration is over, and short sellers are hoping that insiders sell, with a 70%+ borrow fee, and no more shares available. We have seen the massive institutional demand at 25, with 300M volume (4x avg volume), and this floor seems unbreakable. Cathie Wood herself went on CNBC to speak about Palantir... "Palantir is the future", were her words. With no more negative catalysts, and the greenlight from the big banks, there is only one direction left for Palantir Technologies. Palantir is one of a kind... Unrivalled.
PLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
10
PLTR - DOUBLE TOP: LONG --> SHORTWe see a reversal pattern: "Double top". All the main conditions are met (volumes, uptrend, etc.). Now there is a breakdown of the "Neck" level. The theory tells us that after the breakdown of the "Neck" level, there is often a return movement to the "Neck" level, and then a further fall. Plus, the drop is now at the 20 EMA (near $20), which often acts as a support level. This increases the probability of returning to the "Neck" level. In this regard, it is advisable to open the Long to the level of the "Neck" (+8%), then turn over to the Short (+10%).
PLong
by Dr_Chester
2
PLTR load up... to the moon!PLTR after amazing an ER run up, stock price took a hard hit today as it dropped nearly 13%. PLTR earnings and beat analyst upgrades with a 41% growth in revenue from 2019 and is expecting to report a 30% yoy increase in revenue growth for 2021. Great add to your long term as they continue to spread their data analytic software to not only commercial customers but the government as well. Also founder of ARK Investment,Cathie Wood, has added this to her portfolio. From a TA standpoint, I can see more room for this to come down looking for a bounce near 24 to my wave c target to complete our abc correction before we start to form a 1-2 EW set up for a confirmed reversal. Now, if we gap up and we don't come down to get our dip entry, I wouldn't enter any short term swing and wait for a safe entry which would be a break and hold above 31. Good point here to go long with shares! Key Levels: Support: $25.30, $22.36 Resistance: $29.11, $30.92, $33.34, $37, $42.04, $45.19 Ways to Play This: 1. Buy Shares and HOLD! 2. LEAPS (year out option contracts, couple strikes OTM will suffice) 3. Swing minimum 3 week out exp. Option contracts Option Ideas: 30C 3/5 2.30 30C 3/19 3.15 30C 1/21/2022 9.95 40C 1/21/2022 7.70 50C 1/21/2022 6.08 *Keep in mind these are contracts that catch my attention due to their liquidity (high vol and high OI) you can always go ITM or closer strike prices but my style is to go OTM unless ITM is cheap
PLong
by jUiCE_Trades
11
PLTR: Correction drop, but will be breakout again!PLTR: Considering some analysis to Palantir we can see that this company has a good standing, and also they are getting a lot of contracts. By technical view we can see that the stock is correcting itself now, after many traders were in, and it was expected a drop in price. But in the meantime if we see also with Fibonacci we can see a increase later on this stock. It was increased up to 40% in the begining, and now is stalling, but it will breakout on the days ahead. In my opinion PLNTR is a worth investment. It is a bull stock! NYSE:PLTR
PLong
by igliferati
10
PLTR stock was bought by ARK! where stock price go? Palantir (PLTR) we missed you in action in the last month and a half... I covered what the company does and how in the previous idea I wrote in Nov -link here So Palantir acquired new contracts in the health sector last month and as it seems now – their technology can integrate in any major corporation and improve efficiency dramatically. This means that Palantir will acquire new clients organically based on user experience that is proving as very efficient and successful – which is the best advertising you can ask for 😊 Shares of PLTR were acquired last night by the notorious ARK invest – they bought 497,100 shares exactly and this is the first time the company is acquiring PLTR which means to us they believe in the company but more importantly, they think the stock price is reasonable if not underpriced! So, let’s go on technicals – this one is pretty easy and clear • We had an impulse wave that took the stock above the 30$ line. • Once wave ended and people abandoned the stock it dropped to 24$ line • Now we see in the last month it formed a sideways trend between 24$ to 28$ • After ARK news I expect the stock to go to the 28$ line and retest resistance – this will be our first target • Second target will be breaking through the 28$ and giving us a high on the 31$ line – touching previous resistance • Third target will be after breaking the 31$ and going to 34$ where we have our highest high and doing accumulation on that level so the stock can potentially break out to new highs – even 40$, we saw the SAME exact behavior on JUMIA this month and it eventually broke out If all targets are achieved in the upcoming week or two (the market is very fast these days) then we can aim to take some profits at 40$. if we see the PLTR dropping to the red zone on the chart at below 24.00$ we can assume this analysis is canceled and should be ignored We at FDGT truly believe Palantir has a lot to offer and their product is going to disrupt technology and innovate it to new levels as artificial intelligence is here not just to stay but to take over and companies that will not combine artificial intelligence in their software will fall behind, so this is only the beginning of PLTR , and we are very bullish on this stock in the upcoming years Closer look (1H chart) : Please remember to do your own due diligence, we are not certified to give any financial advice. Happy Friday !!! trade safe
P
by FDGT_academy
US Stock In Play: $PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc)$PLTR further reinforced its technical strength, with a rally of +11.20%, closing at an all time high level of $36.23 that was previously highlighted two days ago. The intraday trading range of $PLTR exceeded 35%, marking it as the most volatile session for $PLTR since its IPO. This is coupled with 191.35 millions worth of shares traded during the session, exceeding 165% of its average. Price volatility for $PLTR continue to uptick towards its peak of $3.00/day, giving substantial traction to break $40 round number resistance ahead of its inaugural Demo Day today at 4.30pm US ET.
PLong
by jfsrevg
1