DJI (Wall Street): Looking ahead for surprises. In this screencast I show some pretty interesting price action on the 1H time frame. I've used the 'theory of curves' to average out price action.
The 1H is pretty risky now for trend following entries going south. The price action is looking rebellious, in that the bulls are fighting hard to keep this market afloat.
There are two amazing 1H ATR switches which suggest heavy bearish pressure. But never underestimate the owners of central banks and their friends! Politricks also affects sentiment - but you can't see that influence on charts. So, there are unseen dangers.
As elections approach in November in the USA, a crashing market is good for nobody. I'm expecting the ' plunge protection team ' (PPT) may become involved. Don't under estimate them - they're very powerful. Some say the PPT doesn't exist. I'm not debating it.
If the PPT gets involved expect to see sudden unusual small trends north on the 3 to 5 min time frame. Often the PPT rides the back of positive news to avoid discovery. I've seen this too many times.
Nothing in this post is predictive. I don't do predictions.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Plungeprotection
Plunge Protection Team stops kamikazi dive!Dear fellow traders,
In this screencast I focus on the form of market fluctuations in 2007-ish and compare with what we are seeing in 2018. Reference this screencast against my previous screencast of 24th Dec 2018, on the PPT.
The key points match fairly closely in the overall form .
Strangely, the recent rebound is so telling of a story. What's that? This market was moving south like the kamikazi just 2 days ago. Something or somebody or some people stopped this kamikazi dive, all of a sudden - and amazingly caused the market to push north by some 1700 points. It takes a whole loadah dosh to move a market like that! There has been no earth shattering news that would excite investors that much, on Wall Street or the NASDAQ-tech-100, in the last 48 hours. If anything there is far more global financial chaos emerging, and the American economy is approaching bankruptcy (not according to me).
The most plausible explanation for me, is that the Plunge Protection Team called in over last weekend has followed its orders and done something to move the market north. Other possibilities are of course, that the PPT did nothing - but a bunch of very wealthy folk decided to throw money at the markets. Anything is possible but not everything is probable.
IF - and I emphasise 'if' - the 2007 pattern is representative of (lawful) market manipulation, it is also possible that we could all see a similar pattern emerge again in 2018/2019. I am not asserting or predicting that the form of the decline in 2007-2008 and its fluctuation will be seen in 2018-2019.
I also emphasise that nobody should expect perfect (relative) price-point by price-point matching of market fluctuations. I'm suggesting that it is the ' form ' of the pattern that is most relevant.
When will the Plunge Protection Team strike?That the Plunge Protection Team has been called in means there is big trouble! The PPT is a real lawful entity designed to manipulate the US Stock Markets. It is officially known as the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM). It was created by by President Reagan’s Executive Order 12631 in 1988 following the 1987 crash. Its purpose is to lawfully prevent catastrophic market crashes. All the above factual knowledge is available from reputable sources findable via your fav search engine.
This is both good and bad news. Those short in the market could protect their positions - and if they have enough guts take long positions for a limited period. It's not my business to say when to do this, as I have no advance knowledge of the future or when the PPT will strike!
Note carefully that my language above is speculative, except that Dow and Wall Street are in big trouble. This is now common knowledge as the fall in the market has well exceeded the respected figure of 16%. If/when the PPT weighs in it'll have to be with billions and billions of US-Dollars, as loads of people are likely to set up sell orders for the next opening of the markets.
That the PPT has been called in does not mean that they have a 100% chance of moving the US markets north.
It all depends on whether they have enough to push back the deluge of selling they're likely to meet. Nobody I know, knows exactly how the PPT works. Perhaps they will get first orders, beating back all regular investors from selling or shorting . That would make sense. If they are successful, Forex pairs especially those with Yen and AUD could be affected by indirect effect. What it would mean for US-Dollar strength, is another problem.
Note also that other countries have variants of the PPT, some operating covertly.