Brent oil buyers remain hopeful inside five-week-old channelAlthough the weekly falling trend line probes Brent oil buyers of late, the commodity prices remain inside an ascending trend channel from May 27, not to forget staying beyond 100-SMA. The same joins an upbeat RSI line to keep buyers directed towards an immediate resistance line of $76.00. However, any further upside will be questioned by the stated channel’s upper line, close to $77.50. In a case where the oil bulls remain dominant past $77.50, the late October peak surrounding $78.00 may test the rally targeting the $80.00 psychological magnet.
Meanwhile, pullback moves become less concerned until staying beyond the 100-SMA level of $74.10, needless to mention the channel support of $74.50. Also acting as a downside filter is the $74.00 mark, a break of which will make the quote vulnerable to decline towards the mid-June lows near $72.00. It’s worth noting that Thursday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s US NFP, not to forget Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, become the key events for energy traders.
PMI
Impact of cold winter retreat, US durable goods new orders rebouThe year-on-year increase of US durable goods reached 25.02% (previously 3.2%), with an absolute value of $256.3 billion (previously $254 billion).
Year-on-year increase of nondefense new orders for capital goods reached 11.59%, to $75.9 billion in March.
MM Analysis
As the impact of cold winter retreat, nondefense new orders for capital goods reached $75.9 billion in March.
The gap between the annual growth rate of new orders and the uncompleted orders continued to expand, indicating a large amount of backlog orders, it is still in the stage of restocking.
It is expected that in Q3, under a new round of 1.9 trillion fiscal spending, there would be a strong support (February savings rate: 13.6%). Driving companies to continue to invest in restocking inventory and continue the manufacturing restocking cycle as the March manufacturing PMI and retail sales data also set new highs at the same time.
US: Strong economic data lift stocks to record highsUS Non-farm Payrolls up 916K in March, unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% to 6%. The March Manufacturing PMI registered a record high 64.7 percent, and the March Services PMI registered at a 16-year record high 63.7 percent.
As we mentioned before, the US economy in Q2 would be benefited by the Manufacturing and Services industry.
MM Analysis
US Non-farm Payrolls up 916K in March, unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% to 6%. In particular the education and health services up by 101k and the professional and business services up by 66k, showing that the vacinnation has helped the SMEs to recover. Construction ( + 110k ) and Manufacturing ( +53k ) industries has also backed strong support on the US economy recovery.
The March Manufacturing PMI registered 64.7 percent, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the February reading of 60.8 percent. New orders 68 percent, Production 68.1 percent and Backlog of Orders 67.5 percent are in a fast growing direction. Customers’ Inventories 29.9% has been at historically low levels.
Besides the above indexes, a low inventory-sale ratio on January shows that manufacturing cycle would continue due to the capital injection by the US government.
The March Services PMI registered at a 16-year record high 63.7 percent, an increase of 8.4 percentage points from the February reading of 55.3 percent. Employment 57.2%, comments from respondents include: “Have recalled everyone put on waivers and made new hires” and “Additional employees added to service the need of new customers at new locations.” Showing a high probability for corporate to hire more and a optimistic outlook on the labor market, boosting consumer confidence and the US Q2 economy.
VWO - Emerging Market Macro Analysis The macro data from this month's Markit PMI's is sending a bit of mixing signals from the countries that VWO has the most exposure to, but I am still optimistic as to the near-future performance of the emerging markets.
Before going into the macro analysis, whats the market allocation of this ETF.
The 80% market allocation is the following:
- China -> 42.5%
- Taiwan -> 16.5%
- India -> 11%
- Brazil -> 5.9%
- South Africa -> 4.1%
After a quick look at the list above, we can see that China and Taiwan are almost 50% of the market allocation, so it is important to follow their situation closer.
China Macro Overview
China PMI's are sending mixed signals regarding the growth of Chianese economy, with a possible hint as to slow down in the next few months.
The manufacturing report is showing a slow down in growth in the production and new orders.
The new export orders are declining again below the 50 level, which indicates a possibility of contraction, there is also an indication of rising costs.
And that's likely to reflect in the results of Q2, or even in the Q3.
Taiwan Macro Overview
In comparison to Chinese PMI's, Taiwanese reports are much more optimistic, with strong growth in the last months.
January Manufacturing PMI is reporting growth in Output and New Orders, which are leading indicators in themselves.
Employment has increased substantially, which is a good indicator as to the health of the Taiwanese economy in the current situation.
In my opinion, the Taiwanese companies will lead the performance in the VWO for the next few months.
Indian Macro overview
India is another country reporting growth in January if we keep in mind the allocation size in this country in this ETF, it gives an optimistic outlook for its performance.
New Orders, Exports and Outputs are rising for another consecutive month. The employment situation is still contracting but at lower levels than before. That may be an indication of possible employment growth soon.
The overall outlook for the Indian economy is positive and in conjunction with positive data from Taiwan, that's good news for the emerging markets.
Additional Macro overview
Brazil, South Africa are other countries in the top 5 of the allocations for this ETF. Their allocation size is reasonably smaller than the countries above so I won't go into much detail.
Brazil situation is not very bright, as to the information provided by PMI reports, even that manufacturing showed slight improvements, the services are contracting again.
The situation in South Africa seems to expand but at a slow pace, there are still many concerns as the effects of the pandemic on the overall economy.
Final Opinion.
As we can see from the macro overview of the countries, which are the key components of the market allocation of this ETF, the outlook is mostly positive.
Some may be concerned by the mixed data from the Chinese PMIs since China is the biggest player in this ETF, it may affect the performance. However, there is a positive outlook for Taiwan and India.
I believe they will compensate for the possible slow down in China, and it'll drive the EM performance for the next few months.
Sources:
- Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI
- Caixin China General Services PMI
- IHS Markit Taiwan Manufacturing PMI
- IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI
- IHS Markit India Services PMI
- IHS Markit Brazil Manufacturing PMI
- IHS Markit Brazil Services PMI
- IHS Markit South Africa PMI
Dax daily: 24 Jul 2020For yesterday, we expected the retest of 13 235 followed by a possible correction to the downside. Buyers were not able to get all the way to this level as bears took dominance of the market. The whole intraday session was then characterized in a clear directional move to the downside and this lasted till the close. Dax corrected its uptrend of the past days and the pice is comfortably below 13 119 and near the support of 12 882.
Important zones
Resistance: 13 119, 13 235
Support: 12 882
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs
Today's session hypothesis
After seeing yesterday's price action with the close at its low, the scenario offered itself to break the previous day's low. Regardless, Dax opened with a descending gap and fulfilling this thesis right away. At the time of writing, the price is correcting its drop and chances are to see the gap closure early in the morning trading session. We anticipate today's session to remain above the support level of 12 882.
So... What is next? Shortest recession in play?Stock market - Against all odds, S&P index has risen almost 32% since hitting a low for the year on March 23. The fact that it happened after a ferocious plunge of 35% between Feb. 20 and March 23, the most devastating sell-off since the great depression, made the feat even more remarkable.
As a matter of fact, the market posted its best quarter since 1998, with Nasdaq leading the way by soaring 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999.
Some speculated that the fast recovery was due to the big outflow of money from the fixed-income market into the stock market as emerging market fails to meet its debt obligation.
Others credited young investors (medium age of 31) on Robinhood (3 millions user added 2020, 13 millions total) with stock market's spectacular rally.
I personally doubt that the combined purchasing power of all Robinhood users is strong enough to sway the stock market.
Nonetheless, the stock market performance is not representative of the entire economy as there are more than 30 millions small & mid-sized company not listed on major U.S stock exchanges
GDP - What is even more incredible about the stock market's recovery is that it all happened after various sources estimated the GDP contraction to be around 30% to 50% in second quarter
Recently, Fed and policymakers projected the economy to shrink 6.5% (medium projection) in 2020 and the unemployment rate to be 9.3% at the end of the year
Corporate earning - According to data from S&P Capital IQ, 40 percent of the S&P 500, about 200 companies, have withdrawn their guidance and declined to make EPS estimate in 2020.
This lack of guidance has caused a lot of problem for the prediction of corporate earning.
A recent analysis by CNBC earnings editor Robert Hum showed enormous differences at historical level between the high and low estimates for the largest stocks in the S&P 500.
According to numbers compiled by the data provider FactSet, second-quarter profits will fall more than 40 percent.
Refinitiv is projecting about a 43% drop in second-quarter earnings.
Expect to get a more clear picture of corporate earnings around mid-July as banks release their corporate earnings.
Even though the stock market is reflecting more of future sentiment than current economic condition, the speed of its recovery seems to indicate that most investors believe that not only will the market erase all the losses in 2020, but also it will quickly resume the long-term growth trend equals that of 2019, which seems highly unlikely to me.
Again, it is hard not to notice the massive distortion between the stock market's performance and corporate earning.
Unemployment - Initially, the hope is that most temporary layoffs would not turn into permanent job loss. However, as lockdown extends, many furloughed employees are at the risk of becoming unemployed as more and more small businesses going out of the business.
Roughly 20 million Americans are currently receiving unemployment benefits and the insured unemployment rate is still high at 13.4%.
BLS said that discrepancy in unemployment # due to "misclassification" has been adjusted accordingly. An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed fell to 18% from 21.2%.
Overall, better than expected unemployment # and steadily declining initial claim and continuous claim # have painted a much better picture for the labor market.
However, unemployment remains at historic levels. Output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Pandemic - WHO reported around 180,000 new coronavirus cases last Sunday, the single-largest increase since the pandemic began, with two thirds of new cases coming from the Americas. Around half of the 50 U.S. states were also reporting a rise in new coronavirus cases, most notable in southern states that were previously spared from the Covid-19 ravage.
On Tuesday, United States recorded the biggest single-day rise in new cases since the pandemic began.
According to Bloomberg report, most experts believe a vaccine won’t be ready until next year.
Other factors -
Trade war with China and upcoming election...
#1. Median existing-home price last month was $284,600, up 2.3% from May 2019.
#2. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.13% for the week ending June 18. Mortgage rates have drop to another record low.
#3. The number of Americans applying for home mortgages has hit an 11-year high.
#4. An index measuring homes in contract to sell, or pending sales, jumped by a record 44% in May.
#5. A record spike in U.S. retail sales, though the recovery happened after a huge dive of retail sales a month earlier.
#6. PMI has surged sharply after a huge plunge since the pandemic started. It is possible that the # is skewed by the lack of small business participation and the effect of China re-opened its economy ahead of other major economy.
I believe most current home buyers are not heavily impacted during this economic downturn and their purchase decisions are probably not indicative of the economic recovery.
Shortest recession is made possible because this economic crash was driven by the uncertainty of pandemic rather than economic fundamentals? I don't know. But if you only look at real estate and stock market, it surely seems so.
Dax daily: 01 Jul 2020Tuesday's session was considerably slower to what we are used to. Once the session opened, Dax took a direction to break the previous day high, as suggested by the Statistical application. The day was closed in the black numbers but the volatility was really low. Dax remains in the consolidation range where the odds are still neutral.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 494
Support: 12 151
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs
20:00 CEST - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today's session hypothesis
The month of July opens with a descending gap and we expect the closure, also for the reasons that Dax is still in the consolidation range and the trading activity is mostly sideways. We don't have a clear directional bias and our key S/R zones remain unchanged. Keep an eye on the Eurozone PMI reports in the morning session and the FOMC later in the US session. There is no clear scenario as of now, and we're awaiting what markets offer.
Dax daily: 23 Jun 2020Dax gave us a fake signal yesterday when it faked-out below the 12 151 S/R zone. The price very quickly returned to the consolidation range of the past week, levelled between 12 151 and 12 494. The daily range was relatively standard and we haven't even seen much volatility.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 494
Support: 12 151
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMI reports
Today's session hypothesis
Considering the fact Dax hasn't moved away from its consolidation range lasting one week already, we have no reasons changing the outlook. The Statistical Application also doesn't generate any probabilities in these situations and Dax awaits any decisive catalyst that will propel the price development. This could be today's PMI reports from the Eurozone or volatility in the main US Indices. These appear to be on the crossroad between the artificial positivism of re-opening the US economy, as created by Trump's administration, and a fear of the upcoming second wave of the pandemic. We now need to monitor the price action but mainly the breakout from the current consolidation.
USDCAD EYING 1.37USD/CAD breached the support at 1.3730 and moving short to 1.3600.
USD/CAD gained downside momentum as the U.S. dollar continued to lose ground against a broad basket of currencies.
The U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the 98 level as the American currency is under pressure amid increased demand for riskier assets.
The U.S. Manufacturing PMI increased to 39.8 in May compared to 36.1 in April. Canada’s Manufacturing PMI also rebounded from 33 in April to 40.6 in May.
Numbers below 50 indicate contraction, but the rebound in PMI shows that economies are starting to recover from the acute phase of the coronavirus crisis.
Traders focused on the recovery from the coronavirus crisis, providing support to riskier currencies like the Canadian dollar.
Breakout Indicator signlling more short to come.
ISM vs SPX yoy divergence signals more downside comingBig ISM decline with SPX divergence is signaling more SPX downside is likely in coming months
China problems, Central Banks & euro riseThis week begins to give a first idea of the economic consequences of the epidemic (so far in the context of China). We are talking about the manufacturing PMI index for China, which fell to 35.7 in February (compared to 50 in January). The non-manufacturing index came out even worse, showing a value of 29.6 (the lowest in history). Recall that any value below 50 indicates a decrease in economic activity. And this is only the first swallow. Then there will be new indicators, and each of them will plunge financial markets into an ever greater depression, at least for some time.
Meanwhile, in China itself, the epidemic continues to decline rapidly. In Wuhan (the epicenter of the epidemic), they even began to close the first temporary hospitals due to the lack of patients. But the relay race in China is confidently intercepted by the world as a whole. South Korea, Italy, Iran - current epicenters, which are also not localized, but, on the contrary, spread the virus to other countries. If we draw an analogy with China, then at best for the next month we will find exclusively disappointing news. So you should not count on something good from March.
Accordingly, the outcome from risky assets is likely to continue, respectively, gold and other safe-haven assets will find fundamental support. This week we will continue to use the bundle of buying gold - buying USDJPY as a promising medium-term position. In our opinion, the strengthening of the yen, if it continues, will be limited, but the opportunities for gold growth look much more extensive in this regard. Our disbelief in the significant strengthening of the yen is due to the fact that Japan is experiencing serious economic difficulties and traditionally one of the components of the equation to solve them was the devaluation of the yen, so the Bank of Japan is either around 107 or about 105, but most likely it will intervene and prevent the yen from strengthening.
In general, central banks are again in the spotlight. Everyone expects salvation from them. As it was during the crisis of 2007-2009. So far, they live up to expectations, since all key central banks have noted rather aggressive statements about their readiness to act.
Markets traditionally focus on the Fed. This is mainly due to the current difficulties of the dollar and the frank success of the EURUSD pair. With each new hundred growth points of EURUSD, our desire to sell a pair grows stronger, as does our desire to increase transaction volumes for sale.
Part of the dollar’s problems lies in the plane of the presidential election. We try to minimize the analysis of the political plane, focusing on the economy. But today is the so-called Super Tuesday. The day when 1344 of the 1991 Democratic Party delegates cast their ballots for a particular candidate. So far, Sanders is the undisputed leader (probability of victory = 57%), but Biden still has chances (probability of victory = 31%). So the day for the US political sphere is very significant.
The pound was under pressure yesterday due to the negotiation process between the UK and the EU on a trade agreement. There is already a familiar game of tug of war and trade for the best conditions, tied to mutual threats. As in the case of Brexit, we prefer to see not the current noise, but the perspective. And it is such that the parties are likely to agree in one form or another.
Accordingly, the pound will receive its positive sooner or later. So in the medium term, we do not see any problems for medium-term purchases of the British pound. Rather, on the contrary, we see good shopping opportunities. In current conditions, sales of the EURGBP pair seem ideal to us.
Time for a China bear play after PMI printThe YANG China Bear fund should gain this week after an extremely bad print on China's manufacturing PMI, which came in 22% worse than expected over the weekend. China has been claiming economic recovery-- they say 90% of their state-run firms are back in business-- but the numbers belie those claims. Also go check out a BBC article titled "Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown" to see breathtaking photographic evidence of how the Chinese economy has ground to a halt. Markets are only just beginning to appreciate the scale of the economic impact of this thing. It's going to be bad.
China is slowing down, the US homes sales are growingYesterday was notable for the fact that for the first time in an epidemic, the number of new cases in China was lower than in the rest of the world. On the one hand, this indicates a reduction in the epidemic in China, and on the other, the continuation of the deterioration of the situation in the world. Since the situation with the epidemic in China is improving quite rapidly, we can begin to summarize its preliminary results. And although it’s too early to talk about specifics, some estimates can be obtained already here and now.
These are the so-called early response indicators. For example, Bloomberg calculates 8 early response indicators for China. So 5 out of 8 in February decreased. But this is not the worst. The February indicators of business confidence fell to the lowest values in the history of observations. Business can be understood: the sales of new cars and real estate in China fell by more than 90%.
Bloomberg data is also confirmed by a monthly study of the health of small and medium enterprises in China. The results are record low in the history of such studies.
As for the more classical metrics, it is expected that China's GDP growth will decline to the lowest levels since 1990. Goldman Sachs, for example, expects China's GDP growth in the first quarter by only 2.5%.
A sharp slowdown in the economy is frightening not only by the fact of the slowdown but also by the problems that it carries: rising unemployment, increasing bad debts, increasing bankruptcies, falling financial results of companies, decreasing domestic demand, etc.
Speaking of official statistics, the first signals will appear on February 29, when the February PMI for China will be published. As expected, it will fall to the lowest levels since the global financial crisis (while some experts predict even lower values).
Yesterday's data on sales of new homes in the USA looked rather provocative against this background: in January they grew by +7.9% to 764,000 with a forecast of +3.5% to 718,000. However, we will see what will happen there in February, especially in light of the Center’s warning the United States Disease Control and Prevention Regarding the threat of a possible spread of the virus throughout the United States.
In general, the situation continues to be tense and for any positive, whether it is a decrease in the number of patients or the development of a vaccine, there is a negative right there (problems in the economy of China and the world, the spread of the epidemic, sales on stock markets, etc.). Accordingly, we do not see any reason to radically change anything in the trading plan.
So today we are looking for points for buying gold (but we are careful - we buy on the slopes with mandatory stops), we sell oil, we sell EURUSD, we buy GBPUSD, we sell USDJPY with small stops.
Does SPX vs PMI divergence signal upcoming recession? No, not really. Only 3 of 7 divergences signaled recessions in the last 50 years. Besides, some recessions did not have any divergence.
So data doesn't support the recession is coming thesis.
Red flag -> Divergence with recession following
Green flag -> Divergence w/o recession
? -> No divergence signal before recession
(This post is in response to some comments I received)
SPX performance vs PMI diverging significantly SPX yoy performance vs PMI Manufacturing index
Tried to replicate TeddyVallee's chart w/o z-scores he published on Twitter
Big divergences I could find are marked with flags. I may be missing a few so make your own decisions
Looks like when PMI and SPX diverged, most of the time SPX was correct!
Could it be that stocks are the first to feel the liquidity flood which then lifts the PMI?
My bet is even if there is a pull back, uptrend should continue and PMI should bounce next
Europe is “disappointing”, we trade with oscillatorsMonday turned out to be a relatively calm day for the foreign exchange market. The euro and the pound could not reach Friday's peaks, due to the weak macroeconomic statistics.
For example, in Germany, the PMI in the manufacturing sector fell to its lowest level in the last couple of months and amounted to 43.4. This confirms that the largest eurozone economy is experiencing serious problems. Recall, any index value below 50 means that activity in the manufacturing sector is declining.
Germany is not an exception. Weak data came from both France and the UK. According to PMI, manufacturing activity in Britain is at its lowest level over the last 7 years. The PMI in the manufacturing sector in the UK came out at 47.4 pips (analysts expected 49.2).
In general, the lack of growth of the euro and the pound against the background of such data is quite logical.
On the other hand, this is not a reason to refuse to buy EURUSD and GBPUSD. All we need is statistics on industrial production in the United States come out weak. Well, for the pound it would be nice if the data on the labour market did not disappoint.
In general, today we are not expecting any revelations and strong directional movements. In our opinion, the best trading tactics for today is oscillatory trading. So we trade with RSI or Stochastic or you can choose another one.
Once again, we draw attention on extremely attractive positions for sales of the Russian ruble.
EURUSD potential H&S patternAfter Brexit vote and a spike in EUR, we retraced the move the next day. Now seems like a H&S is forming with divergence. Proper support in terms of the trend line 200SMA and 1.11 area. Elliott waves suggest the final leg of retracement in wave (c).
PMI data coming in this morning from Europe this morning. Negative numbers would give more probability to this trade. 1st confirmation is the close of the nice bearish candle on 1 hour. 2nd at the test of support and break.
Good Luck and have a great trading week!
Could EUR break the current range today?From technical perspective, the pair is stuck in the 1.1100 - 1.1050 range. And we'll need to see a sharp breakouth in any direction to give us more clarity in the medium-term. For now, while the Dollar index is bullish in the medium-term, we can expect the euro to fall below 1.1050.
Additionally, ECB President Lagarde will make her first major speech later today. If Lagarde uses today's speech as an opportunity to clarify her position on easing, we will see a strong reaction in EUR. A dovish prospects can push EUR/USD lower to 1.10, especially if that will be supported by weaker PMIs. More optimistic bias, on the other hand, could raise the euro to a 2-week high above $ 1.11. Outside of this, a positive surprise on PMIs will indicate that the European manufacturing malaise is bottoming and this will helps EUR/USD and German 10-years yields push higher. Further key resistance is 200-day SMA around 1.1175 (Nov. high).
Either way, there appears scope for an uptick in EURUSD volatility. Our strategy is for trading in the range - Buy on the top limit and Sell on the bottom border with tight Stop-Losses above 1.1100 for the Sell position and bellow 1.1025 for the Buy.
What do you think?
Why buying EURUSD is a great chanceLooking at the EURUSD daily chart, it clearly shows that it has come to a very important support level. That is a great reason for its purchasing. The stops are relatively small - about 30-40 points, and the profits, in this case, are about 100 points (the nearest strong resistance is located in the region of 1.1160). That is, purely technically, taking into account adequate money management (the profit margin is 2.5 times higher than the stop value), so that is a nice opportunity for earning.
The fundamental background is the only thing that can negatively influence. In our opinion, the situation with the euro does not look hopeless and the chances of supporting 1.1060 are quite large.
The Eurozone economy is experiencing tough times. However, yesterday's data on retail sales and business activity in the Eurozone came out better than expected, which is more important that the indicators showed a positive trend: retail sales grew by + 0.1% with a forecast 0%, and the composite PMI index was 50.6 with a forecast 50.2 ( the value of the indicator above 50 indicates an increase in economic and business activity). Against the background of rather weak data, these signals have been extremely positive.
Leaving the EU without a deal option is eliminated from the agenda. which is great news for the euro. Against this background, the pound rose by 1000 points. And the euro added only 100-200 points, it means that the euro did not worked out yet. Why should the euro grow because of the information that the “hard” Brexit will not take place? The fact is that Britain’s exit from the EU without a deal is not only about losses for the UK but also multibillion-dollar losses for the Eurozone economy, therefore potentially serious problems for the euro. So the removal of this issue from the agenda is a positive signal in favour of purchases of the euro. Its descent below 1.10 was an attempt to discount under exit without a deal. And since it does not take place, then the euro should return to its original position, to grow.
Trade war escalation between the US and the EU is delayed while approaching the end of trade wars between the US and China. For the euro, this is a positive signal. Let us explain: the locomotive of the Eurozone economy is Germany.
The German economy is export-dependent, that is, its success/failure is determined by the state of global markets, primarily China. The end of the trade wars between the United States and China will give a powerful impetus to the return of the world economy to the normal statement and one of the first to benefit from this will be Germany. In turn, improving the state of the German economy is improving the state of the Eurozone as a whole. And this is will reflect positively on the euro.
So, we do not see serious threats to the euro at the moment. Rather, on the contrary, there are good opportunities for buying exceptionally cheap euros.