Consolidation before the BOJ Policy Rate DecisionWe probably won't see much price action today even though rates were cut to 5% yesterday. Many market participants are bullish, but this feeling can quickly disappear if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decides to raise rates again, creating a situation like the one on August 5th. We got some clusters of liquidation around ~$63k but we have alot more at <$58k to liquidate.
PO3
The only Range you need for BitcoinTake the high and take the low. We are about to approach the red line. The middle of the range, which I think will serve as resistance. We could move to $61.4k by Wednesday, but the FOMC will shake the markets a bit then. On Friday, it will also be interesting to see if the Bank of Japan decides to raise rates.
Quick pump on monday? BITCOINWe could see a rapid rally on Monday that will last until Wednesday when the CPI data is released. We are currently in a mean reversion as show with the arrow. We broke through the ema50 and are retesting it right now. The order books are also pointing to $56k as there is a lot of liquidity in the form of orders looking to be filled.
Solana Bull Market IdeaThis idea shows a scenario of a possible start of the bull market. Solana has been moving sideways for a long time. I expect a manipulative event in the red square, like the Fomc event or a war event that will shake the last bull, but all this is preparation for the bull market event. The target is anything above the all-time high.
4hr BITCOIN mean reversion rejection - Leave the rest for laterIn #Bitcoin's 4-hour chart scenario, we reject the EMA50 we are currently at and take the low at $56k in the next couple of days. We get a lot of economic data in the next few days until Friday, which could strengthen the US dollar and lead Bitcoin into a sell-off. Chart-wise, it looks like a rejection of the 4hr EMA50. The first target would be $56k and if things look really ugly, we should also consider $51k as a possible target.
Bear and bull scenario for today (MONDAY)We recovered the wick from Sunday with the move lower just before the close of the weekly candle. I could see some mean reversion here on the table and a possible break or rejection near the daily open (offset) at $58.4k. Like always $58k region is key. A possible rejection can happen at the psychological low at $58.2k. Right now we are still in the range of $58k - $61k. London Session starts in 8 min and will start the day. Let's go. Trade safe!
Long term bullmarket scenarioThis idea is a long-term bull market scenario. This idea could start on the day of the FED interest rate decision. The rate decision could lead price action into a bear trap by making traders think we are making a lower low. Well, we do, but this should be considered a bear trap as we have been moving sideways since March and a big event like the FED rate decision could lead to a trend change. Considering the fact that we are making lower lows, it seems like we are constantly liquidating the long positions and the market makers are keeping the short positions alive to sell on a late uptrend.
Potential PO3 in formed on BitcoinThis fundamental analysis shows the potential of a PO3 pattern forming. We went to the EMA50 on the 1 hour time frame which was the manipulative move in the Po3 pattern. At the moment we are back in the consolation area, but there is a chance to go back to older lows that were respected by the last decline, which could have its turn now. So $56k is the target for now.
Bearish trend continuation for the weekThat's my idea for the current downtrend if we continue it. Nvidia earnings today at 10pm could be a factor for volatile price action. I see the possibility of a move up to the 1hr EMA50 at around $61.2k if earnings come out well. This is a scenario where we continue the current downtrend. Check out my bear scenario for this week here on tradingview to see the bigger picture. The level to keep an eye on is the $56k level as the price could be interesting there due to pools of liquidity. I have also marked the current price levels where we are again. These are the levels of the consolidation range we were in last week.
Bitcoin bearish scenario for the weekI made this analysis yesterday. In this case, we also expect a move closer to $62k, so based on this analysis, we have time to analyze until Tuesday to decide which way to go. The bears case explains the price action as the following. We broke out of last week’s consolidation with a manipulative move over the weekend/late Friday, so we trapped the longs by let the believing in higher prices by hold the price at the GETTEX:64K level. The EMA will not hold in this case and we go back to the lows of August 6 at around $51,000.
BTC Ideasintresting PA.
PA Struggling to break Supply.
Range forming. Some ex still didn't took 1st tap - could indicate as re-accumulate neither distribution. But decent break of range Low (63.500) - would confirm distribution and possible po3 play. Targeting 48k
In case of re-Accumulation and Supply fail - ATH
Power of 3 - ICT Concept ExplainedIn this video I cover the topic of Power of 3 or otherwise known was PO3. This concept is also the same as AMD, which is Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution.
PO3 is the basis in which Smart Money approaches the market. As we have covered before, liquidity is the lifeblood of the market. To maximize efficiency for Smart Money, liquidity is engineered for the purpose of trapping uninformed money on the wrong side of the market and assuming the counter-party to their trades.
At the open of a candle, Smart Money is accumulating positions, usually in some sort of range. The next stage is the manipulation, where price makes a fast run towards liquidity, usually in the opposite direction of where price is intended to go, and then reversing rapidly.
The final stage is distribution, where Smart Money is offloading their positions above or below the marketplace depending on whether it is a buy or sell program.
The whole purpose of understanding this concept is to be able to anticipate the future direction of price, and to ideally buy below or above the open of a candle, again depending on what type of candle it is. I show how I anticipate the PO3 in this video.
- R2F
4 Stages of Price Delivery (ICT Concepts)In this video I go through the 4 stages of price delivery as it pertains to ICT Concepts.
Generally, the market is going through either of the following:
Consolidation
Expansion
Retracement
Reversal
Price starts from a consolidation, where Smart Money accumulates their position, and then an expansion, where price is trending in a direction for the purpose of seeking liquidity and/or manipulating sentiment. From an expansionary phase, price will either retrace to re-accumulate orders and expand again, or have a complete reversal.
Now, it is important to note that price is fractal, meaning the signatures you see on a lower timeframe perspective could also be seen on a higher timeframe perspective. In a singular candlestick, there can be multiple phases of price delivery happening.
Once one can fit all these pieces together in regard to how market makers book price, one can have a clear insight into where price is likely going and where it likely won't go again, all with a high degree of accuracy.
Thanks for watching and reading!
- R2F
ICT's Market Maker Model - An Easy to Understand GuideIn this video I try to explain ICT's Market Maker Model as simply as I can.
This model basically depicts how smart money efficiently facilitates their positions in the marketplace. It is important to understand some concepts beforehand, such as liquidity, AMD/PO3, market efficiency, crowd mentality, and the fractal nature of price.
I hope you find the video insightful and that it helps you utilize Market Maker Models in your trading.
- R2F
📈 Bitcoin Analysis: Power of Three Pattern Bitcoin has been navigating within an ascending channel, respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The recent execution of a manipulation strategy, aligning with the Power of Three pattern, involved a precise move beneath the lower trendline. This maneuver is anticipated to capture liquidity and set the stage for a rapid ascent. The expectation is for a bullish move towards $48,000.
🔄 Ascending Channel Dynamics:
Bitcoin's adherence to the ascending channel underscores the prevailing bullish sentiment. The market has consistently respected both the upper and lower boundaries of the channel, highlighting a balance between buyers and sellers within the established trend.
📉 Power of Three Pattern and Manipulation:
The execution of a manipulation strategy beneath the lower trendline aligns with the Power of Three pattern, a technical formation characterized by three distinct drives or phases. This maneuver, involving a move beneath the lower boundary, is designed to trigger stop-loss orders and capture liquidity from unsuspecting market participants.
🔍 Liquidity Grab Strategy:
The manipulation-driven move beneath the lower trendline serves a dual purpose: disrupting the established channel and providing an opportunity to grab liquidity for a swift upward move. This strategy aims to create favorable conditions for accelerated growth once the manipulated liquidity is absorbed.
🚀 Anticipated Upside Move:
The manipulation-driven liquidity grab sets the stage for a potential rapid ascent. Assuming successful absorption of liquidity and a shift in market sentiment, the target of $48,000 becomes plausible. This level represents a significant upside potential, given the strategic nature of the manipulation maneuver.
💡 Trading Strategy:
Traders should closely monitor Bitcoin's price action following the manipulation-driven move. Confirmation of absorption of manipulated liquidity, increased buying interest, and a sustained move above key resistance levels would provide favorable conditions for entry. Implementing stop-loss orders to manage risk is advisable.
🔮 Future Outlook:
The technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin is poised for a potential bullish move following the manipulation-driven liquidity grab. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies based on real-time market data. The dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market emphasizes the importance of flexibility and risk management in trading decisions. A successful absorption of liquidity could pave the way for accelerated growth towards the $48,000 target.
MMBM for January.I'm not sure about what the first quarter of the year will bring, but I would like to see a bullish response towards the weekly gap. If I'm correct, we are in the 2nd re-accumulation stage of a Market Maker model on the 1D timeframe, so the price should make a strong upward move. In case the idea is invalidated, I'll be looking at the sell-side liquidity below 2144.5.
See weekly chart for context:
GBPUSD bullish intraday template I have a bullish bias for GBP/USD, following a simple bullish template. I'll maintain this bullish bias while closely monitoring how price reacts to allocated 1-hour Fibonacci retracement 1hour FVG and the previous higher high. However, I'm aware that price may not react bullishly in this area, as it could be drawn toward the daily low due to a daily bullish FVG, which aligns with another 1-hour FVG.
I'm open to the possibility of a deeper retracement, which could involve grabbing liquidity before the bullish momentum resumes. My objective is to close the day with a strong bullish candlestick, ideally closing above the daily inner FVG (iFVG) and the weekly FVG (wFVG) IF bullish entries present itself