Tutorial | How To Identify Potentially Strong Trend DaysI got smoked shorting the MNQ today. And it was avoidable.
The MNQ1! and the MES1! were flashing warning signs since the Sunday open to NOT fade the move. I stayed off the sell side for the opening 30 minute candle, but then got sucked in at a level. The entry was a violation of one of the Golden Rules of Range Trading - STAY AWAY from Outside Days!
In this video, I discuss how to identify Outside Days and look for Untested Prior Session POCs as signs that conditions are pointing to trending price action.
POC
Tutorial | Lesson 4: Key Levels When Trading 24 Hour MarketsLet's look at some key levels to identify before each trading session, especially when trading around the clock markets like futures.
Before the cash session bell, what are the prices for the following levels?
Prior Session High/Low
Overnight High/Low
Developing Value Area High/Low
And then, at 8:30a ET, is price above or below the prior session high or low? Are we seeing an inside or outside day? Other levels worth consideration are prior sessions POC, High Volume Nodes (HVN) for possible areas of support or resistance, and price relative to our trend filter.
Tutorial | Lesson 1: How To Interpret & Trade Volume Profiles In this first in a 5 Part Video Idea Series, I cover the cleanest volume profile distribution that I've named the "Indian Arrow." This profile is best suited to support and resistance levels, and mean reversion trading within well establish channels.
Key Concepts:
1) Volume at price is very different from typical volume over time.
2) Be sure to read the Help Center article about the Visible Range profile before watching the video.
3) The point of control (POC) in the Indian Arrow is the target for longs entered at value area low (VAL) and/or shorts taken from value area highs (VAH).
4) The Visible Range script will display a dynamic profile based on the amount of data "visible" on your screen. In this video I'm looking at 8H candles.
5) Settings in this video for the Visible Range are most appropriate for futures, forex, and crypto products. Settings for equity profiles in a later video.
AUDGBP [LONG]Aud has ben pretty short lattely but is oversold and just reached that right spot on fibo also is on rock bottom from last year.
FX_IDC:AUDGBP
I suggest a little 25% of normal trade market long, followed by another 50% limited buy 0.5405, and waiting another 25% stop buy a little above 0.5422 above the POC
If the price decide to pivot on POC I will take my position inmidiatly because that will be a "Im going sooo SHORT" signal, but if it cross it it will be a nice indicator of long period.
BTC doing Harmonic Pattern?We create a Harmonic Pattern (so far it looks like Cypher or Shark, they have a point D higher than X ... but it can also be Nen Star, he has D a little lower than X..but we'll find out when we see the reaction)
1) We are working on the last leg D (descending)
1a) This pattern is bullish, because after D comes impulsive growth
2) According to the fib shot setup that I gave last week, we met 1 tgt zone 36 and now we are heading for 2 tgt. zone 32800
3) I would expect a strong reflection in place:
3a) 33,300-400 we have a strong price action zone from the history of the last month. After the rebound we did 2x 16-18% gain.
3b) Another such place is 32,300-400, where after visiting this level we also made 2x nice reflection of 25% and 27% gain.
3c) Other strong supports are marked in graphs 31,000 and 29,000 (I don't see a reason to go there yet, but we'll see what tomorrow's graph brings!)
When we bounce the bottom, I expect the first retest of POC - 36,000, where I expect the first major reject, or impulsive puncture and testing as a support level. (we'll wait for that, I'll update you)
BTC - 4hr Chart update and the importance of where the candle......closes
BTC has has said good riddance to the Bearish Descending Triangle it was in.
BTC is back in the Bullish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud for this 4hr timeframe. Note we have had a Cloud (Kumo) Twist into a bullish green cloud for this 4hr timeframe.
BTC is back above its 50EMA for this 4hr timeframe.
BTC is back above its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA. Note that the Bollinger Bands Upper and Lower Bands are expanding further apart indicating increased volatility and that the price found some resistance at the upper band.
BTC is back above its Volume Profile Visible Range VPVR Point of Control (POC) for this chart set up.
I have added a Volume Profile Fixed Range VPFR and as you can see, BTC is above that Point of Control (POC).
Reason for adding the VPFR is that it gives a more clearer macro view of buyer and seller volume and where the key points are for the range that i’ve selected, whereas the VPVR gives you the amount for whatever length you have your chart set at which could be potentially misleading. Blue representing Buy Volume and Yellow representing Sell Volume.
Note that the last 6 4hr candles closed above its Volume 20 Period Moving Average.
The Average Directional Index (ADX DI) is indicating a strong trend with the ADX (Yellow Line) at 27.02 back above its 9 Period EMA (Blue Line) which is at 22.64. The +DI (Green Line) is at 32.90 and has crossed back over the -D (Red Line) which is at 10.77 indicating that positive momentum is now stronger than negative momentum for this 4hr timeframe.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is showing that BTC is back in the Accumulation Zone with the CMF (Green Line) at 0.14 and back above its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) which is at 0.08 indicating renewed accumulation strength for this 4hr timeframe.
As i mentioned in a few previous BTC post, a very CRUCIAL level for BTC was the Weekly 50EMA, a few traders were posting on TradingView saying that BTC was going to sub $20K, they ignored the fact that BTC would FIRST have to CLOSE this weekly candle below the weekly 50EMA, BTC did wick below it, but it did not close a weekly or a daily candle below the weekly 50EMA level. For whatever timeframe you are in, especially longterm, it is important to remember the IMPORTANCE of where the CANDLE CLOSES. Otherwise…. you’ll just be wick-ing about! :-)
As you can tell, my post are not price prediction post as there are many more experienced traders on TradingView already posting their predications, my post are more educational, showing what these various indicators & squiggly lines that i use are showing me, so I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
S&P. Excessive personification, or not enough?A lot of diddling near the all time highs. If it breaks out, obviously, that's a really bullish indication. If there is continued shyness at the top there might be a lot of points available to the downside as price retreats to area of higher volume. It knows for certain that it will be bought and sold efficiently at lower prices. I think the sharks among us may be willing to risk precious energy waiting around for just that type of move.
GBP/AUDLong Bullish Position pending in the beginning of the new week. We have dropped down to last weeks Low Value Area and have since created a new Point of Control at this level with last weeks Point of Control becoming the second Fair Value Area (Projected Target). The trade is a 1:3.5 RR however this is just an idea at the moment as we haven't seen what price will do at market open and this can effect the decision.
I also see the potential for price to quickly fall to the low value area around 1.82300 as it is also a previous support but we would see a quick retracement back up from this level if we did drop to it.
We will see but i'll be watching this setup / pair into the new week.
What Happens in the Next Few Weeks?First off, check out my new VWAP script I wrote that allows you to use multiple VWAPS on multiple time frames at one time (used here with the black lines).
If we keep this momentum, we could see a slight dip to the 2.3 levels to re-test the VWAP as support. Using the Volume Profile, we can see that the Point of Control is around 3.2 which is the first major resistance we have to break through. 3.2 also happens to be the .618 Fib which plays nicely if you are a confluence trader.
Most likely, we will reject 3.2 and bounce in between the .618 and .5 levels for a bit and create another short term accumulation. Then we break 2021 highs and go straight to the moon.
Let me know your thoughts and any other types of analysis you guys are doing.
ADA - Quick 4hr chart updateQuick ADA 4hr chart update:
ADA is back in the Bullish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud.
ADA is above its Volume Point of Control (POC) for this visible range.
The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating short-term momentum is sideways.
The Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating mid-term momentum is upwards.
The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span (Chimkou Span) is indicating momentum is sideways with a slight slope downwards but be aware that it is a fast reaction indicator.
The Ichimoku Cloud Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) is moving upwards indicating we may get a Kum1 Twist where the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) crosses back above the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) creating a new green cloud which indicates bullish confirmation.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is indicating accumulation has risen with the CMF Line at 0.11.
ADA is in a Schiff Pitchfork Pattern (A,B,C), ADA has attempted to get back above the Schiff Pitchfork Median Line and has found support from the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) cloud support so we may see another attempt at getting above the Schiff Pitchfork Median Line.
During the last few weeks, ADA has proven to be very resilient and also recovered from the dip way faster then most other cryptos.
I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
Bitcoin Volume Point Of Control"Volume Profile is an extremely valuable technical analysis tool that is used by traders everywhere. The key to Volume Profile’s continued relevancy is its versatility. It is a charting tool that truly does have a wide array of uses. Unlike many other studies, there is little to no debate about Volume Profile’s usefulness. The data that is provided by Volume Profile is indisputable, leaving it to the trader to find new and creative ways to use it. Even though in its simplest form, it is a great reactive method for discovering traditional support and resistance areas, traders are still coming up with ways to chart the indicator in predicative or proactive ways."
"Example strategy
Just like with most other tools or studies, Volume Profile has a number of uses. There are many trading strategies out there using Volume Profile as a key component. Below are the basics of one such strategy which is based on comparing the current day’s opening price to the previous day’s Volume Profile.
-If the current day opens above the previous day’s value area (but still below the Profile High) look for price to retrace back towards the Point of Control and then proceed to rise (the direction of the day’s open). Therefore during the retracement to the Point of Control, there is a buying opportunity.
-If the current day opens below the previous day’s value area (but still above the Profile Low) look for price to retrace back towards the Point of Control and then proceed to fall (the direction of the day’s open). Therefore during the retracement to the Point of Control, there is a selling opportunity.
-If the current day’s opening price is completely outside of the previous day’s profile (above the Profile High or below the Profile Low) this can be seen as a possible runner in the direction of the opening price relative to the previous day’s profile range."
The Point of Control is represented by the red line on the chart.
Bitcoin - Sell In May & Go AwayLooks like a possible continuation triangle pattern with volume /distribution towards the top of the triangle.
ABCDE pattern could be completed with possible break down/continuation to the downside in the future.
Recent price action slightly broke out of the triangle pattern but it looks like that was to go up and touch the volume point of control which was around 37, 915.
Expecting more downward movement in the short/medium term.
EURJPY to rise from 2 week POCEURJPY is approaching a red dotted line that is a cumulative Point of Control from the previous week extending to this Wednesday.
Not only that this move is rather slow and correction-like-looking. The accumulation in this area is very recent and hasn't been visited before. Furthermore, it can be spotted without Volume Profile, the naked eye would identify this range too with ease.
I am fairly convinced it is a good long opportunity. I put preset take profit at the end of High Volume Node.
GBPUSD - LONGConsider the development of an North Impulse after a harmonic bullish pattern. The target is the supply zone.
GBPUSD - LONG
ENTRY PRICE - 1.38700
SL - 1.37800
TP - 1.40800
Please leave your comment and support me with like if you agree with my idea. If you have a different view, please also share with me your idea in the comments.
Have a nice day!
USDJPY - SHORTSell on false breakout and resistance Gann line! Expecting a Bullish Measured Move formation to the next Point of Control.
USDJPY - SHORT
ENTRY PRICE - 109.450
SL - 110.000
TP - 108.150
Please leave your comment and support me with like if you agree with my idea. If you have a different view, please also share with me your idea in the comments.
Have a nice day!
NZDUSD - SHORT ENTRY PRICE - 0.71490The price has reached the supply zone. Considering only the sale.
NZDUSD - SHORT
ENTRY PRICE - 0.71490
SL - 0.71900
TP - 0.70300
Always follow the 6 Golden Rules of Money Management:
1. Protect your gains and never enter into a position without setting a stop loss.
2. Always trade with a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1 to 1.5 or better.
3. Never over-leverage your account.
4. Accept your losses, move on to the next trade and trust the software.
5. Make realistic goals that can be achieved within reason.
6. Always trade with money you can afford to lose.
Please leave your comment and support me with like if you agree with my idea. If you have a different view, please also share with me your idea in the comments.
Have a nice day!
EURUSD - SHORT ENTRY PRICE - 1.18990Consider the option of EURUSD leaving the uptrend channel. The main volume is concentrated so far @ 1.18700. A strong impulse is needed to break through this level.
EURUSD - SHORT
ENTRY PRICE - 1.18990
SL - 1.19280
TP - 1.18230
Always follow the 6 Golden Rules of Money Management:
1. Protect your gains and never enter into a position without setting a stop loss.
2. Always trade with a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1 to 1.5 or better.
3. Never over-leverage your account.
4. Accept your losses, move on to the next trade and trust the software.
5. Make realistic goals that can be achieved within reason.
6. Always trade with money you can afford to lose.
Please leave your comment and support me with like if you agree with my idea. If you have a different view, please also share with me your idea in the comments.
Have a nice day!
AUDUSD – SHORT (LONG THERM TRADE) ENTRY PRICE - 0.78000The Bearish Wolfe Wave Pattern has been completed. Last impulse to the North has been exhausted. A strong South impulse has been appeared. It’s time to sell this pair as the long term trade!
AUDUSD – SHORT (LONG THERM TRADE)
ENTRY PRICE - 0.78000
SL - 0.81850
TP1 - 0.71600
TP2- 0.65900
Always follow the 6 Golden Rules of Money Management:
1. Protect your gains and never enter into a position without setting a stop loss.
2. Always trade with a Risk-Reward Ratio of 1 to 1.5 or better.
3. Never over-leverage your account.
4. Accept your losses, move on to the next trade and trust the software.
5. Make realistic goals that can be achieved within reason.
6. Always trade with money you can afford to lose.
Please leave your comment and support me with like if you agree with my idea. If you have a different view, please also share with me your idea in the comments.
Have a nice day!
NAS100 (LONG) Potential Bullish ContinuationHello Folks,
NAS100 has broken the bearish channel in a bullish zone near The POC 12790 zone where is expected to provide a new rebound after the retest of the broken structure.
This potential rebound from the POC zone could aim for higher levels which will form an upward continuation movement. (Plus a Potential EW count).
Let's see how it goes..!!
Good luck