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Pointandfigure

Are We Actually in Redistribution Down to $5k?We have successfully tested the upper resistance of our trading range with a tiny upthrust and turned down towards the $35k support, following $32k and $30k. Regarding p&f chart, i've explained in my previous analysis that we have 13 columns so far in the accumulation structure. This counts to a $39k potential, but we need at least $26k more to reach our beloved $100k, so We need at least 9 more reversal columns within the trading range for a potential of +66k markup taking us from $35k to over $100k. But... If we fail to break above trading range, we might see further downside and we souldn't rule this possibility out. That would mean the structure we are looking at right now is not accumulation but a redistribution, meaning continuation of the down trend. Remember in my last update, Bruce Frase analysis showed we could end up at 4-5k! So how do we tell if we are in accumulation or re-destribution? Let's watch another great workshop from Bruce Fraser on re-distribution structures. You will see it's not uncommon or impossible to find ourselves in this situation and it is my biggest concern right now. www.youtube.com I have drawn a red downtrend line on my imaginary accumulation structure starting on phase B all the way to phase D. This is a bearish descending triangle. If this plays out we can confirm the accumulation by observing this bearish triangle (which does not exist yet) and price should break this triangle in order to confirm and start new uptrend. If it fails to do so, we may find ourselves at $4-$5k lows! This is the difference between accumulation and re-distribution. Therefore, since we cannot confirm the bullish acccumulation case just yet, we should be patient and wait until such a confirmation happens. The rest will be history. Trade safe!
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
34
Bitcoin Death Cross With P&F ChartsHi, Tradingview removed my analysis update so i'm posting the revised version with LOVELY Tradingview charts! In this update i want to explain wyckoff method using poit and figure charts. Wyckoff uses them for identifying the events without the noise. These charts are created using x and o's, hence the topic tic-tac-toe . Google it and you can play the game right on top of search results, cool. Ok, before going deeper, let's remember the death cross is only one day ahead of us. I want to talk about this briefly because the death cross can create false signals sometimes. In order to confirm this pattern we should look at the context. As a rule of thumb, if the price did not drop more than 20% of it's highs and already recovering, this can be a false signal, but if the price has dropped more than 20%, then the death cross might be hitting hard - which is our case! That said, i do believe we will see a big crash within few days given the vulnarable position of Bitcoin . Let's also not pass the upthrust event. Yes, it was a tiny one :) I expected a more violent upthrust, but it's a good time to note Wyckoff is not a chart pattern, it's a system that can come in many forms and shapes, so take the drawings as a guideline. You should be studying p&f charts, which is the subject of this post. Back to proint & figure charts, these charts do not use a timeline like candlestick charts. You only get a new column if there's a price reversal. That means p&f charts articulate volatiliy. This makes it the perfect tool for our crazy volatile Bitcoin . P&F charts remove the noise and makes support and resistance levels crystal clear. For example, the red support at $35k is clearly the first immediate support of the prior swing low. If it breaks, that will be a Double Bottom Breakdown pattern on the p&f chart. These charts are squeezed version of bar charts where you can only add a new column after a reversal. The curent structure is currently holding an almost $40k potential fuel and it's not done yet until the last point of support LPS event. Given the price is already at $35k, it can't go below zero, so this $40k (and counting) will be added to the current price, (not substracted) Which takes us to $75k ALREADY! Fuel calculation is: Number of coulmns x reversal x box size 13 x 3 x 1000 = 39.000 I'm using 3 box reversal with a box size of 1000 Now, since we want to break $100k, we still need at least 25k worth of accumulation. So, 60% is already accumulated and 40% still remains. It's not easy to understand and explain these charts, but in order to understand how powerful they are, i urge you to watch this* excellent Bitcoin analysis from Bruce Fraser (i'm not advertising here) right before the crash back in May 14th. It's a timeless piece that will make you want to learn p&f charts: www.youtube.com If you noticed, he's pointing even lows at 4-5k's in his analysis, if all the distribution counts were dumped. His conservative target was $40k first which was broken and then $31-$26k range, but the scary thing is that the composite operator has enough fuel to take the price of bitcoin down to 4-5k if he wanted to! This is why we have to be extremeley cautious before we go all in. Here's a wyckoff p&f chart tutorial from Bruce Fraser (He's a wyckoff p&f chart guru) Part 1* www.youtube.com Part 2* www.youtube.com Trade safe! (*) These videos are not from my own channel and i don't get paid to advertise anything here.
by BitcoinMillio18
20
DUFU, JHM, MI, PENTA, VS Analysis  -  Massive Targets RevealedTwo weeks ago, I covered these 5 stocks -  MYX:DUFU , MYX:JHM , MYX:MI , MYX:PENTA and MYX:VS as Malaysia technology sector was on a massive rally. From the Wyckoff structure analysis perspective, majority of these stocks are still in phase D sign of strength rally with or pending a backup action before the phase E, which is a markup phase after a completion of a re-accumulation. Find out the revised the key levels to watch for scaling in and the massive targets as revealed in the video based on the Point and Figure (P&F) projection.
MYX:VSLong
by mingjong
SLV ETF - The next GameStop (GME) by WallStreetBets (WSB) ?Will SLV ETF be the next GameStop (GME) to start the crazy run up as WallStreetBets prepares to unleash the World's Biggest Short Squeeze in Silver?  Let's analyze SLV with price action trading strategy and volume spread analysis (with Wyckoff concept) to scrutinize the tell-tale signs before any potential big moves happen. In the end of the video, upside target will be estimated with Point & Figure projection.
AMEX:SLVLong
by mingjong
5
Point & Figure target for a small distribution range - S&P 500Find out how to project a downside target from a distribution range in a 3-minutes timeframe with Point & Figure (P&F) projection. Check out the video for a complete walk through of the daily market analysis of S&P 500 futures (ES) for 2 Dec 2020 trading session. In this video, you will find out the market recap during the last session and a trade review in the three-minutes timeframe (including entry, exit and the rationale behind). Going forward, I will cover the bias, the key levels to pay attention to, my trading plan for the session later. Watch my daily market analysis video in the last session below if you haven't in order to better relate to the market recap and the trade review. Bias - neutral (Day trading); bullish (long term) Key levels - Resistance: 3670; Support: 3630-3640, 3600, 3587 Potential setup - Look for potential reversal at the key levels. Disclaimer: The information in this presentation is solely for educational purpose and should not be taken as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by mingjong
2
Devouring Netflix with Point&Figure analysis. Market Top. SHORT.Netflix hit an all-time high, then corrected. It crept below the uptrend line but didn't generate a sell-signal below it. It passed back above the uptrend line but hit the resistance roof. Again, it just crept below the uptrend line but without a sell-signal, suggesting that the trendline is acting as support, albeit loose support. The price climbed above again but then broke the uptrend line and generated a Double-Bottom sell-signal. Following the double-bottom sell, it fell by a further two boxes before being supported by the original uptrend line. It then rallied upwards but couldn't reach the second uptrend line which suggests this trendline now may switch to a resistance role. The price sunk below the original trendline for the first time and generated another double-bottom sell at the level of penetration, falling a further two boxes after the double-bottom signal box. It barely snuck above the original trendline before sinking down, albeit at a higher low. What followed was a strong rally which broke through the original trendline but was met with resistance from the most validated trendline. After very brief congestion, the price rallied through the most validated trendline by 4 boxes. This questioned the resistance power of this trendline. Though it is thought this 4 box rally above was an attempt to reach the previous all-time high. A pole developed and sunk the price through this trendline and then the original trendline again, and created a triple-bottom sell. The next X column failed to come close the original trendline. A catapult then formed with a double-bottom after the triple-bottom. The next X column failed to touch the original trendline before another double-bottom sell-signal was generated. Two downtrend lines have now formed but the area of support is yet to be full broken. My impression is that we are experiencing a market top and that a potential reversal is imminent. Things to look out for: - Will minor downtrend be penetrated? - Will major downtrend line be penetrated? - Will the area of support be penetrated? For a short, anticipate: - the second downtrend line to be validated - the area of support to be penetrated - a double-bottom sell-signal or better
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by owk13
Ethereum Forms Upward Thrust to $235.50 in Phase BHappy Saturday. The scope of the TA will be limited to the 15M Intraday Chart and the 1D Chart. With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation has completed Phase A of a Wyckoff Accumulation range, establishing the Intraday trade range between $234.25 and $230.00. The formation has moved into Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation, has completed the Upward Thrust (UT) to the $234.50 price handle, followed by a second Upward Thrust (UT) on a Sign of Strength (SOS) to the $235.50 price handle. The formation is currently forming a creek before moving into Phase C. The formation has printed a second Upward Thrust (UT) on a Sign of Strength (SOS) and the PA appears to have formed a classic Back-Up/Last Point of Supply (BU/LPS) at the $234.25 price handle suggesting imminent breakout. At first glance, it appears the formation is about to have a strong move higher, but it smells more of a bull trap for a couple of reasons: The PA remains confined below trend line resistance, suggesting the chart be viewed with a bearish bias. The formation is currently in Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation, and an Upward Thrust (UT) of this type is typical PA before forming a Creek to move into Phase C. A breakout during this phase is atypical. The key item to watch for is PA retuning into the trade range (failure and supply). The Volume profile is materially weak given the strong move higher on a Sign of Strength (SOS) and the Volume Oscillator is printing a sharp decline on the move, indicating the trend is weakening and on the verge of change. Everything here is mirrored almost exactly on the 4H Intraday Chart as well. On 1D chart, the formation signaled a move into Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution and is currently printing the first Last Point of Supply (LPSY) on a macro level. Two key items of note: (i) the upper line of support rests at the $229.50 price handle and the lower line of support rests at the $225.25 price handle, and (ii) the $229.50 price handle is a critical point across all three Charts (1D, 4H & 15M). Without a doubt this is the single most critical price point with the current PA. A breach below this price handle will signal a significant breakdown of support on the Intraday time frames and signal a sell on the higher time frame (1D). A price of $230.00 would form a double bottom on the 1D Chart and touch lower support on both Intraday Charts (4H and 15M). A price of $229.75 would signal a sell from the double bottom on the higher time frame (1D) and breach the lower support line on the Intraday charts (4H & 15M). A price of $229.50 would confirm the double bottom sell and touch the upper line of support on the 1D Chart. Summary/My Trade Plan While the bias across the board remains bearish, a slight lean towards short position entry at points above $233.75 seems to make sense from a risk/reward scenario. Given both, (i) the premature Selling Climax (SC) Ethereum had as a reaction to Bitcoin breaking lower support at $9,120.00 and (ii) Bitcoin just completed a Return to ICE (RTICE) completing Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution pattern, the natural move from a Creek to Spring in a Phase C Wyckoff Accumulation makes logical sense as a potential inflection point into a Selling Climax (SC) should Bitcoin move into Phase E Distribution in the near future. Should the formation bounce on a typical Jump Across the Creek, the position can still be closed in minor profit. However, should the inflection point not hold, the ensuing Selling Climax (SC) provides an excellent opportunity for more material profit as support across multiple time frames should potentially fail in rapid succession. The $229.50 price handle is a critical point across all three Charts (1D, 4H & 15M). Without a doubt this is the single most critical price point with the current PA. A breach below this price handle will a signal significant breakdown of support on the Intraday time frames and signal a sell on the higher time frame (1D). Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Enters Wycoff Phase E After Breaking Support at $9,120.0Happy Thursday. Today the Technical Analysis will be confined to the 15 Minute Intraday chart. With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation printed a Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW) on a breakdown with conviction through the lower line of support at the $9,120.00 price handle to $9,020.00, before reversing direction and printing a lower high at $9,140.00. Since the PA has reversed direction after printing the Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), it has failed to break out with conviction above the lower line of support at the $9,120.00 price handle, tapping out at $9,140.00. This PA signals the formation has entered Phase E of a Wyckoff Distribution and major move down (a Selling Climax) is imminent. The cause from consolidation suggests a target price of $8,660.00, should the cause fully exhaust itself in this distribution. Typically, a Selling Climax will exhaust itself in 2 – 3 legs during the Selling Climax (SC) over the final phase of distribution, providing additional Last Points of Supply (LPSY) during the breakdown. The key price to watch for on the 15M Chart is $9,020.00. A price of $9,000.00 would signal a sell and a price of $8,980.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,660.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Summary/My Trade Plan Given the formation is has just confirmed entry into Phase E, a Selling Climax to $8,660.00 is imminent. The plan is to Layer in Short Positions above $9,100.00 (Ideally $9,120.00) on the retest of the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) before the formation moves wholesale into the anticipated Selling Climax (SC). The current Target Price would be $8,660.00. Once shorts have been layered in, sells should be layered in starting at $8,680.00 through $8,660.00. Stoplosses should be placed in the $9,230.00 region. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
7
Bitcoin Eyes Breaking Lower Support at $9,120 for Phase E MoveHappy Sunday. The concept of money has always fascinated me. If you ever find yourself in the Colorado Springs area, be sure to check out the American Numismatic Association Money Museum . It is probably one of the most comprehensive histories of currency in the United States. Lately I’ve been somewhat sucked into a piece I’m writing about Blockchain and Gresham’s Law give some of the fundamental analysis I’ve been doing more recently. Once I get it finished and published, I will include a link in the next TA update. With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation has just completed a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation (trade range established between $9,340.00 and $9,120.00) and has started to move into a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation. The formation has potential to flip to Bearish Bias from Bullish Bias if trendline support is broken. With Phase B underway, the most likely course of action is PA riding the trendline until after forming the typical Upward Thrust (UT) in Wyckoff Phase B - possibly to the mid $9,300s (I don’t feel the PA will not move past $9,400.00). After the Upward Thrust (UT), I would expect the bias to flip as trend line support should break. One key price to watch for on the 15M Chart is $9,120.00. The lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has just completed a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation (trade range established between $9,340.00 and $9,120.00) and has started to move into a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation. The formation has completed a Secondary Test (ST) of resistance at the $9,340.00 price handle and establish the trade range. One key price to watch for on the 4H Chart is $9,280.00. A break above this trendline resistance will both signal a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) – potentially to the $9,400.00 price handle - is underway and flip the bias to bullish from bearish. Also, the lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. On 1D chart, the formation appears to be at the tail end of a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution, printing a series of Last Points of Supply (LPSY) in rapid succession before moving into Phase E and a Selling Climax (SC). The formation is currently printing a green candle with a high at $9,340.00 and a low at $9,140.00. The key price to watch for on the 1D Chart is $9,240.00 (since the prior close was $9,300). A daily close above $9,240.00 guarantees the candle remains green, otherwise we move into a column of O’s, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Also, the lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress, which would suggest a breakdown to the $8,600.00 price handle (or lower) is in play. Crypto Market Capitalization and Bitcoin Dominance Lately I have started to include some ore fundamental analysis into my TA to get a better sense of the fundamental trends within the cryptocurrency market in total. The results were eye-opening. The total Market Capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has declined 41.8 percent on a continuous, unbroken decline since February 17, 2018. The chart suggests the pace of new capital entering the crypto market is being eclipsed by existing capital exiting the crypto market for just over two years now. It would explain why the recent PA rally to the $10,420.00 price handle had all the TA hallmarks of a blow off top. Also, Bitcoin Dominance has declined 5.31 percent on a continuous, unbroken decline since September 5, 2019. The decline in dominance was from 72.79 percent of the Cryptocurrency Market Cap to the recent local high of 68.92 percent of the Cryptocurrency Market Cap. The recent breakdown from that local high in the recent period is significant as well. The chart seems to suggest Market Capitalization is currently flowing from Bitcoin into Altcoins, potentially signaling “Alt Season” is in full swing. Interesting sidebar - Bitcoin remains range bound, with shrinking overall cryptocurrency market capitalization and shrinking Bitcoin dominance. This leaves the overall impression Institutions and larger players are filling Altcoin buy orders for Bitcoin and distributing those Bitcoins on the open marketplace for fiat, while incurring minimal slippage. Summary/My Trade Plan Across all Bitcoin Charts (1D, 4H & 15M), the lower support line rests at the $9,120.00 price handle. Without a doubt this is the single most critical price point. A price of $9,100.00 would signal a sell and a price of $9,080.00 would confirm a critical breakdown is in progress. Given the formation is currently in the tail end of a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution (printing a series of Last Points of Supply) and the lower boundary of support is the same across all time frames, it would suggest a Selling Climax (SC) of significant magnitude is imminent. The Wyckoff Phase B Accumulation (which is currently underway) always presents an Upward Thrust (UT) near or above resistance. This provides an excellent opportunity for a scalp long or an opportunity to layer in short positions. Wyckoff Phase C provides similar opportunities with Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) which are common throughout that Phase. The plan is to Layer in Short Positions above $9,300.00 on the Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) and Phase C Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD). The current Target Price would be $8,640.00. The Target Price will be refined as the formation moves into Phase C and Phase D depending upon the cause consolidated into the formation. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1