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Bitcoin Signals Wyckoff Accum Phase D on SOS move to $9,220.00Happy Wednesday. I mentioned yesterday the appearance of an Upward Thrust (UT) to the $9,180.00 price handle during what I assumed was a continuation of a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution threw a ton of red flags. After publishing my analysis Monday, I noticed the volume profile and PA did not line up with a Phase D Distribution, and the Selling Climax (SC) did not exhaust the cause from consolidation in the formation - which threw even more red flags. Once the formation printed an Upward Thrust (UT) on the 4H Intraday to the $9,220.00 price handle, it confirmed a Secondary Test (ST) of resistance for the new trade range, and confirmed we are now in a Phase D Wyckoff Accumulation. I have subsequently covered all short positions at the $9,085.00 price handle. As the Phase D Wyckoff Accumulation concluded and the formation attempted a breakout, volume continued to be an issue, the cause from consolidation again failed to be exhausted, and the breakout failed to have any follow-through. As a result, new short positions have been taken within the $9,160.00 – 9,180.00 price range and the $9,250.00 - $9,270.00 price range. Failure to exhaust cause from consolidation (target prices failing to be reasonably hit) in either direction is now a major problem in the $9,000.00 price region, and the activity around the $9,000.00 price handle could right before Options Expiry could be the reason. The scope of the TA will again be limited to the Intraday Charts (15M and 4H). With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, after signaling a Change of Character (CHoCH) with a clear break above the upper resistance line at the $9,180.00 price handle on a Sign of Strength (SOS), the formation retreated into a Back-Up/Last point of Support (BU/LPS) right under the $9,180.00 resistance line to consolidate for a move higher. Typically, the behavior one would expect to see with PA spreads and volume during a Phase D Wyckoff Accumulation are: “…the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes.” Phase D (to this point) has been a story of declining/compressed PA spread and trade volume, with the notable exception of the bookend Signs of Strength (SOS). When comparing the trade volume profile of this current Phase D Wyckoff Accumulation to recent Phase D Accumulations, the trade volume is roughly half of what has historically been present. The follow through on this breakout has been conspicuously absent, with initial breakout falling short of the $9,320.00 resistance line. The pullback from that initial advance has managed to stay above the resistance line at the $9,180.00 price handle. Bullish breakout would confirm should the PA break past the $9,340.00 price handle. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the PA broke trendline resistance with a move to the $9,280 price handle on a Sign of Strength (SOS). This flipped the 4H Intraday bias from bearish to bullish. Trendline support currently falls within the resistance range, which on its face, has some bullish overtones. The PA spreads, activity and trade volume all mirror the activity on the 15M Intraday. As with the 15M Intraday, the PA has pulled back to a price range above the upper resistance line at the $9,180.00 price handle, suggesting a breakout is imminent at the time of this writing. On the surface, it has the appearance of a bullish bias, but the PA behavior and volume is very atypical for a formation moving into a Phase E Wyckoff Accumulation (breakout). It seems they paint the picture of bullish exhaustion rather than imminent bullish breakout. I’m left with the impression of a bull trap again. Summary/My Trade Plan All open short positions were covered at $9,085.00 to lock down profits given the appearance of a Wyckoff Accumulation Trend in Phase D. As the Phase D Wyckoff Accumulation trend played out: (i) the volume did not appreciate during consolidation within the resistance range on PA increases (X Columns) – volume basically declined/remained flat, (ii) volume did not appreciate as expected on the breakout above the $9,180.00 resistance line, (iii) the PA did not follow through after the initial advance to $9,280.00, and (iv) the formation has failed to exhaust the cause built into the formation, regardless of breakout/breakdown. New short positions were taken within the $9,160.00 – 9,180.00 price range and the $9,250.00 - $9,270.00 price range. Current Target price is $8,760.00 and Stops are set for $9,310.00. Right before Options Expiry on Friday, it was reported there was a significant increase in activity at the $9,000.00 price handle for options. Should my bearish bias prevail and the news around Options PA prove to be true, the PA collapse should be significant and should dive materially lower that the Target Price. Given the formation still has unresolved cause built into it, the plan is to scale short coverage from $8,760.00 - $7,700.00 price range. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
5
Bitcoin Life in the Phase D Wyckoff Dist at Options ExpiryHappy Friday Bitcoin Options Market with approximately $1 Billion in Options expire today, so it should be a bumpy ride. Today, the TA analysis will be confined to both the Intradays (4H and 15M). With that, let’s get to the TA… Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation recently dropped beneath the key support line turned resistance at $9,240.00 and appears to be exhausting demand towards the lower end of support, which is expected in Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution. A key point to keep an eye on with the 15M Intraday, is the formation is beginning to follow a typical Wyckoff Accumulation pattern (Shakeout and Spring are both appearing in this consolidation). The pattern appears set to breach the trendline resistance, suggesting a flip to bullish bias on the 15M Intraday. Given today is Options Expiry Day, and the amount outstanding is material ($1 Billion), it would be wise to keep a very close eye on this formation in the event something out of the ordinary happens (such as Upward Thrust After Distribution in Phase D). An Upthrust above $9,240 which breaks $9,320.00 here would be a red flag and cause for concern. I would expect another strong move or cluster of moves to push PA down into the $8,900.00 price region in the near future to exhaust all remaining demand in that region, test/break the lower end of support at $8,900.00, and transition into Phase E for a Selling Climax (SC). Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the upper end of PA has shifted down from the $9,320.00 price handle to the $9,240 price handle, and the lower end of PA has been tracking the Bearish Line of Support formed from an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. The PA suggests the formation has finished exhausting demand at the $9,300.00 price handle. It exited on a PA drop through the Bearish Line of Support which printed a Sign of Weakness (SOW) at the $9,080.00 price handle and has remained constrained below the key line of support turned resistance at the $9,240.00 price handle. Much like my earlier analysis in the $9,600 region and the $9,300 region, I would expect the formation to print another green candle (potentially two), as it moves downward in the support zone before breaking support at the $8,900.00 price handle and moving into Phase E and a final Selling Climax (SC). Summary/My Trade Plan Short positions should have been taken within the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 zone, the $9,400.00 - $9,300.00 zone, and the $9,300.00 - $9,200.00 zone. Given the appearance of an accumulation pattern in the $9,240.00 – $9,100.00 with potential to break trend line resistance on the 15M Intraday looming, it suggests adding more to short positions at this time is unwise – better to allow this formation to resolve first before seeking to add more short positions or ride with the current positions held. The Target Price for the Selling Climax (SC) would be $8,020.00 (additional cause has been added to the formation during this Wyckoff Phase D). Covering short positions should begin at or near the $8,300.00 price handle, layer covers through $8,020.00, and reserve approximately 15% for a potential blow off bottom/bottom sell. Stops currently at the $9,470.00 price handle should be shifted downward to the $9,365.00 price handle. The split should be a 50% of the total position at $9,470.00 and 50% of the total position at $9,365.00 to safeguard against an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which could fall back into the trade range. While uncharacteristic for Phase D, given the appearance of an accumulation on the 15M Intraday and Options Expiration today, prudence is wise here. At the Selling Climax (SC), a scalp long should present itself off the Automatic Reaction (AR) from the Selling Climax (SC) once the Low Pole Reversal Confirms – potentially somewhere in the $7,900 - $7,700 region. This would also be an excellent place for long term cold storage buys. Once the Automatic Reaction (AR) is exhausted, sell off any scalp long buys immediately and wait for the formation to move into the conclusion of Wyckoff Phase B/start of Wyckoff Phase C to take a position again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
4
BTC Continues Phase D Wyckoff Dist Targeting a Break of $8.9kHappy Thursday. Tomorrow appears to be a massive day in the Bitcoin Options Market with approximately $1 Billion in Options set to expire. Bitcoin Options Market Faces Record $1 Billion Expiry on Friday According to the article, there are 114,700 options contracts valued around $1 Billion USD across Deribit, CME, Bakkt, OKEx, LedgerX which are set to expire, with open interest clustered around the $10,000.00 - $11,000.00 strike prices and recent open interest buildup around the $9,000.00 strike price. Get ready for a bumpy ride. With that, let’s get to the TA... Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, Since dropping back into the trade range established in the support zone ($9,460.00 - $8,900.00), the formation appears to be exhausting demand at the middle and lower ends of support, which is expected in Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution. “Phase D arrives after the tests in Phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during Phase D is asking for trouble.” - The Wyckoff Method: A Tutorial After breaking through the upper level of support at the $9,460.00 price handle on a Sign of Weakness (SOW), the PA printed another Bearish Line of Support, and subsequently printed another Sign of Weakness (SOW) on a Descending Triple Bottom to the $9,200.00 price handle. After a brief recovery above the Bearish Line of Support, the PA smashed through the Bearish Line of Support again with a very strong move to the $8,980.00 price handle and established another Sign of Weakness (SOW) before recovering above the Bearish Line of Support once again. It’s very clear the purpose of these moves is to exhaust all remaining demand in this price region. As of this writing, the PA on the current weak rally appears constrained below the key line of resistance at $9,240.00. I would expect another strong move or cluster of moves to push PA down into the $8,900.00 price region in the near future to exhaust all remaining demand in that region, test/break the lower end of support at $8,900.00, and transition into Phase E for a Selling Climax (SC). Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, after the bearish breakdown from the $9,600.00 price handle to the $9,260.00 price handle, the PA has been constrained beneath the $9,320.00 price handle, with large spreads and heavy sell volume, indicating significant supply has entered the market. The formation appears to have established a Bearish Line of Support on the trend line formed from an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. Ironically, that trend line once behaved as resistance. The PA smashed through this now Bearish Line of Support on a strong move down to the $8,980.00 price handle on a Sign of Weakness (SOW), before recovering above the Bearish Line of Support again. Much like my earlier analysis in the $9,600 region, I would expect the formation to print another green candle (potentially two), as it moves downward in the support zone before breaking support at the $8,900.00 price handle and moving into Phase E and a final Selling Climax (SC). On 1D chart, after forming a “Creek” of descending PA and increased volume, the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) signaled a move into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution (again arguably the most volatile of the Wyckoff Phases). Two key items of note: (i) the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which formed at the Jump Across the Creek, failed to rise to at least the lower line of resistance at the $9,940 price handle, and (ii) the current cause built into the formation at the Intraday level suggests the current red candle should complete at the $7,900.00 price handle and establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) at a macro level. Should the PA fall below the lower level of support at $8,120.00, this would signal confirmation a Wyckoff Distribution (not Re-Accumulation) is underway at a macro level . This second point is significant as the remainder of the formation plays out at the macro level. Summary/Trade Plan I’ve currently taken short positions within the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 region and the $9,400 - $9,300 range. I would look to add to my short position with weak rallies in the support zone (potentially between the $9,300 - $9,200 range), and shift Stops from the $9,510.00 price handle to the $9,470 price handle. The Target Price for the Selling Climax (SC) would be $7,940.00 (additional cause has been added to the formation during this Wyckoff Phase D). I would look to begin covering shorts at or near the $8,300 price handle layering buys through $7,940.00, reserving approximately 15% for a potential blow off bottom and potential bottom sell. At the Selling Climax (SC), I would look for a scalp long to catch the Automatic Reaction (AR) from the Selling Climax (SC) once the Low Pole Reversal Confirms – potentially somewhere in the $7,900 - $7,700 region. This would also be an excellent place for long term cold storage buys. Once the Automatic Reaction (AR) is exhausted, I would sell off any scalp long buys immediately and wait for the formation to move into the conclusion of Wyckoff Phase B/start of Wyckoff Phase C to take a position again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
5
Bitcoin Enters Phase D Wyckoff Dist After Breakdown to $9,260Happy Wednesday. It would appear my thoughts about the formation printing a bull trap were correct, and the recent drop signaled the conclusion of Phase C and entry into a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution pattern. Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, it appears as though the Sign of Weakness (SOW) printed at the break of the Bearish Support Line on a Descending Triple Bottom signaled an incoming drop back into the trade range established inside the support zone as expected. It would appear the red flags around the failure to exhaust the cause on the move up were warranted, and the formation played out as anticipated in Phase C. After the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,580.00, the formation painted a series of Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) with declining volume as demand at the $9,600 price handle was exhausted. A Bearish Line of Support was formed with the lower lows and a Sign of Weakness (SOW) was printed at the $9,580.00 price handle from a Descending Triple Bottom off the Bearish Trendline. This signaled the supply coming to market was disproportionately overwhelming demand and move lower was in play. A steep drop in PA back into the mid-range of support signaled the conclusion of Phase C and a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution has commenced. During Phase D, we should expect the price to remain below upper support at the $9,460 price handle and gradually move lower through the range before coming to the bottom of support at the $8,900.00 price handle. Any rallies within Phase D should be on weak volume and provide excellent opportunities to take a short position or add to a current short position. Once the low end of support breaks, this will signal Phase E, and a Selling Climax (SC) exhausting all the cause built into the formation should ensue shortly after. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the bearish breakdown from the $9,600.00 price handle to the $9,260.00 price handle, unambiguously signaled the formation has entered Phase D of a Wyckoff Distribution. The formation broke through the support trend line which was established at the low point of the creek at the $9,200.00 price handle. This decisive break printed both a Sign of Weakness (SOW) and flipped the bias from bullish to bearish on the 4H Intraday chart. I would expect the formation to print a green candle, potentially two, as it moves downward in the support zone before breaking support at the $8,900.00 price handle and moving into Phase E. That being said, in this area, I would focus more of my attention on the 15M Intraday, since that appears to be driving where Last Points of Supply (LPSY) are forming as we march towards a Selling Climax (SC). On the fundamental side, it appears the coins from the spike in Miner Outflows reported by Onchain Analyst Cole Garner, have hit the exchanges in this recent selloff based upon reports from cq.live. Thanks to Tradingview user @derrybit for sharing that piece of info. On 1D chart, after forming a “Creek” of descending PA and increased volume, the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) signaled a move into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution (again arguably the most volatile of the Wyckoff Phases). Something of note - the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which formed at the Jump Across the Creek, failed to rise to at least the lower line of resistance at the $9,940 price handle. This would suggest supply has entered the market which is disproportionately greater than demand at this price range, and lower PA should be on the table soon. However, since the formation is in Phase C, Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) are normal and should be expected. It is possible we could see a move higher to $10,420 after the current distribution cycle exhausts the current cause. Generally speaking, Wyckoff Accumulation and Wyckoff Distribution waves happen in cycles of three. As this current distribution wave is the third consecutive wave in this series, I would anticipate accumulation and a rally in PA at the conclusion of this current cycle. Summary/Trade Plan I’ve currently taken short positions within the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 region. I would look to add to my short position with each weak rally in the support zone, potentially between the $9,400 - $9,300 range, and shift Stops from the $9,730.00 price handle to the $9,510 price handle. The Target Price for the short position would be $8,760.00 (additional cause has been added to the formation). At the Selling Climax (SC), I would look to target the $8,680.00 price handle for a scalp long to catch the Automatic Reaction (AR) to the Selling Climax (SC). Once the Automatic Reaction (AR) is exhausted, I would sell off immediately and wait for the formation to move into the conclusion of Wyckoff Phase B/start of Wyckoff Phase C to take a position again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Life After the Recent Phase C Upward Thrust to $9,780Happy Tuesday. The expected Upward Thrust (UT) in Phase C did appear, and it came with both the volume and PA one would expect for a bullish move up. The larger question is – does this mean the formation is bullish rather than distributive? Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, it appears as though the formation had a bullish breakout with Move 1 taking the PA to the $9,620.00 price handle, followed by a textbook formation of a Back-Up/Last Point of Supply (BU/LPSY) to the resistance line at the $9,560.00 price handle, and a subsequent surge from Move 2 to a Buying Climax (BC) at the $9,780.00 price handle. The recent move raised some red flags since the full cause built into the formation during consolidation was not exhausted. This would suggest supply is disproportionately higher than demand at this price point, and a turn lower in the PA should happen. The built-up cause should have ended with a Buying Climax at $10,420.00, but the PA has stopped well short of that price handle, which is a significant red flag. Moreover, since the Buying Climax at $9,780.00 on the 15M Intraday, the formation has not managed to break the $9,720 price handle on upward PA swings and has formed a Bearish Triple Bottom which did break the support line, bounced off resistance at $9,580.00 (potentially signaling support) and recovered to $9,680.00 price handle. Since recovering, it appears the formation is moving into a classic Phase A Wyckoff consolidation pattern on the 15M chart at the time of this writing. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which took the PA from $9,280.00 to the $9,780.00 price handle, unambiguously signaled the formation has entered Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution. If the formation is, in fact, making a bullish move rather than a distributive bull trap, I would have expected two strong moves up to $10,420.00 on strong volume, which would bookend a Back Up to form a Last Point of Supply (BU/LPSY) right around resistance at $9,580.00 (Move 1 -> BU/LPSY -> Move 2). The formation had a strong Move 1 on solid volume (11.748K) to $9,780.00 and performed a textbook Backup/Last Point of Supply (BU/LPSY) exactly to the resistance line at $9,580.00. However since that time, the formation has failed to generate any real volume in over 8 hours (1.397k) or surge past $9,780.00 to exhaust the remaining cause at or near the Target Price of $10,420.00. This is beginning to look more like a very well executed bull trap. Also, there may be some fundamental evidence to support this narrative. On the fundamental side, Onchain Analyst Cole Garner posted an infographic on his Twitter account about the recent spike in BTC miner outflows overnight. Cole Garner Spike in Miner Outflows If this is true, it would suggest miners which were initially hoarding BTC waiting for PA to move higher post halving have hit capitulation and are unable to continue holding their BTC in anticipation of a higher price. This also may explain Preliminary Supply (PSY) flooding the market at the $9,720 handle, which halted the PA rise. On 1D chart, after forming a “Creek” of descending PA and increased volume, the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) signaled a move into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution (again arguably the most volatile of the Wyckoff Phases). Something of note - the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which formed at the Jump Across the Creek, failed to rise to at least the lower line of resistance at the $9,940 price handle. This would suggest supply has entered the market which is disproportionately greater than demand at this price range, and lower PA should be on the table soon. However, since the formation is in Phase C, Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) are normal and should be expected. It is possible we could see a move higher to $10,420 if the full cause is exhausted on this current move before a move back down into the normal trade range. Summary/Trade Plan In my mind, the recent PA feels more like a bull trap rather than a bullish move up. The trade plan is to enter a short position Somewhere in the $9,680.00 - $9,650.00 region with a Stoploss at the $9,730.00 price handle. The Target Price for the short position would be $8,820.00. Should the Stoploss trigger, and a move higher ensue, I would take a long position at the $9,765.00 price handle with a Target Price of $10,420.00 on the move higher. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
17
Bitcoin Continues in a Phase C Wyckoff DistributionHappy Friday. With the current news about the young trader on Robinhood who committed suicide after racking up $700k in losses, be sure to never trade more than you are willing to lose, have a plan and stick to it. Trading and surfing have a lot in common – every wave is not the right set, so look for your set and let the others go. Plenty of great opportunity exists for the patient. Currently the formation is within Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution (arguably the most volatile of all the Wyckoff Phases). The case could be made that the formation is moving into Phase D or is there already. Phase D is broadly defined as follows: “During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR…. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions.” For the record, on the 4H Chart, the support zone the formation established at the outset lies between $9,460.00 and $8,900.00. Key takeaways from the current PA are: The formation has continued to remain constrained beneath the trend line (on the 4H Intraday) from the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle, and it appears this trend line is strong resistance and remains untested. The PA formed and progressed along a Bearish Support Line established with the first Sign of Weakness (SOW), which printed immediately after a Secondary Test (ST) of Resistance. The PA subsequently printed a Downward Breakdown of the Bearish Support Line on a second Sign of Weakness (SOW) and has been mired in a trade range in the middle of support since that Breakdown. PA spread and volume (particularly sell volume) has increased since the second Sign of Weakness (SOW) was printed on the Downward Breakdown of the Bearish Support Line to the $9,240 price handle. Since that breakdown, the Bearish Line of Support has no longer behaved as effective support for PA, and price spread has increased substantially as a result. This suggests demand has been exhausted in the higher price range. The Accumulation/Distribution Indicator is currently in a strong downtrend illustrating selling pressure is more prevalent in the market at the current time. A downward trend which is in congruence with falling prices points towards lower price in the near future. The Volume Oscillator on the 4H (-19.70%) and the 1D (-26.93%) suggesting a strong trend shift is imminent. The current cause built into the formation from consolidation suggests a target price of $8,960.00. Always keep in mind, as consolidation continues more cause is built into the formation (much like a spring being wound and compressed before being released). Consequently, the price target will shift as consolidation continues and more cause is built in. While a line of support exists at the $9,320 price handle on the 15M Intraday, my expectation is it will provide a momentary pause/resistance in downward price movement rather than strong support. In Phase C Wyckoff Distribution volatility defines this Phase. Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) and shakeouts should be expected. Unless the formation prints Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which breaks past resistance at the $9,580 price handle, Backs Up to form a Last Point of Support (BU/LPS) at or above the resistance line and bounces, the formation still maintains a bearish bias. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Enters a Phase C Wyckoff Dist (Target Price $9,060)Happy Thursday. Currently the formation has completed Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution and is moving into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution – arguably the most volatile of all the Wyckoff Phases. I believe the PA appears to be headed lower in the near future for a number of key reasons: The formation has remained constrained beneath the trend line (on the 4H Intraday) from the Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. Currently the upper line of support at the $9,460 price handle is acting as resistance and constraining price beneath it as well. The formation is grinding along a Bearish Support Line, formed Downward Breakdown of the Bearish Support Line, and signaled a Sign of Weakness (SOW) as it formed the “Creek” to jump across. “Jumping the Creek” generally happens as Phase B ends and is an attempt to rally above resistance at the $$9,580 price handle (which was unsuccessful). The formation failed to break past the upper support line at the $9,460 price handle on the “Jump Across the Creek”, signaling weak demand and bearish bias. Further, on the pullback, the low re-tested the Bearish Support Line. The current cause built into the formation from consolidation suggests a target price of $9,060.00. Always keep in mind, as consolidation continues more cause is built into the formation (much like a spring being wound and compressed before being released). Consequently, the price target will shift as consolidation continues and more cause is built in. While a line of support exists at the $9,360 price handle on the 15M Intraday, my expectation is it will provide a momentary pause in downward price movement rather than strong support. As the formation moves into a Phase C Wyckoff Distribution volatility is what defines this Phase. Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) and shakeouts should be expected. Unless the formation prints Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) which breaks past resistance at the $9,580 price handle, Backs Up to form a Last Point of Support (BU/LPS) at or above the resistance line and bounces, the formation still maintains a bearish bias. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Phase B Wyckoff Distribution (Price Target $9,140)Happy Wednesday. Today’s analysis will be a bit brief and focus on the activity of the 4H Intraday chart for a potential short setup. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the PA continues to remain underneath both the resistance range at the $9,480 price handle and the trendline established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle. During Phase A, the Secondary Test (ST) of Resistance failed to establish a higher high above the Automatic Reaction (AR) at the $9,580 price handle, which suggests bullish demand in this region continues to remain somewhat soft. Further the volume required to move the PA from the Secondary Test (ST) of Support to the Secondary Test (ST) of resistance was almost three times as much as the volume required to move the PA from the Secondary Test (ST) of Resistance to the first Sign of Weakness (SOW). This would suggest distribution is underway. Two key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart: (i) the PA continues to remain solidly underneath the trendline established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) to the $10,000.00 price handle, and (ii) a series of successive lower lows have opened up, creating a potential Bearish Triple Bottom Breakdown/Downward Breakout of a Bearish Support Line. Both takeaways would suggest a bearish bias when viewing the 4H Intraday Chart. Should the PA break through the Bearish Support Line at $9,400, the Target Price for the Breakdown would be $9,140.00. Should the PA break above the $9,620, this would signal a buy in this region with a potential upside target of $9,980.00. Currently the formation favors a bearish bias. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
7
Bitcoin Enters a Phase A Wyckoff Accum After Selling ClimaxHappy Monday. Well, that escalated quickly. Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, that breakdown below $9,000 to the $8,900 price handle took virtually no time at all for a Wyckoff Distribution. The PA for the formation could never break above the $9,480 price handle, even on successive attempts on very anemic volume, which signaled a move lower appeared to be in play. The PA spreads to the downside became much larger as the formation progressed, and printed a Sign of Weakness (SOW) once the PA broke through the line of support established by the Selling Climax (SC) established in Phase A at $9,060.00, also signaling a move lower appeared to be in play. As the formation developed into a Creek, the expectation is it will create a quick succession of lower lows until it meets a surge of demand, then explode upward on an Upward Thrust (UT) towards resistance (a Jump Across the Creek), and the PA will either break through resistance on a move higher or experience rejection at or below resistance and fall lower. The expected Jump Across the Creek was incredibly anemic, was rejected after rising only four boxes at the $9,200 price handle, and turned lower in a cascading Selling Climax (SC) to the $8,900 price handle, exhausting all the cause built into the formation. The formation is currently in a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation range after completing the most recent distribution, and it is currently establishing the trade range for the next part of this larger macro Wyckoff Distribution underway. One particular item of note thus far: both the price-spread and volume appear anemic on the Automatic Reaction (AR) stage of this Phase A Accumulation. With the formation remaining solidly under the trend line established at $9,480.00 one must maintain a bearish bias until that trend line is broken. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation remained solidly underneath both the lower resistance range at the $9,480 price handle and solidly underneath the trendline established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) established at the $10,000.00 price handle before entering a Selling Climax (SC) dropping the PA to the $8,900 price handle. After the formation broke through trend line support established at the Selling Climax (SC) at the $9,060 price handle, the Sign of Weakness (SOW) turned into a Selling Climax (SC) with virtually no demand to counteract the selloff. The selloff continued and exhausted all the cause built into the formation once the $8,900 price handle was realized. Two key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart (i) both the price-spread and volume appear anemic on the Automatic Reaction (AR) stage of this Phase A Accumulation suggesting weak demand in this price range at this stage, and (ii) the PA remains solidly underneath the trend line established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) established at the $10,000.00 suggesting a bearish bias unless the trend line is broken. Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains within Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. The PA of the formation has remained in the midpoint of the trade range while trending lower and is currently pushing lower inside of a red daily candle. Typically, after a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT), the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible and moving into Phase C. In the current formation, a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) was printed at the $10,420 price handle. Since then, the PA has gradually pulled back to the $9,060 price handle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term and move lower towards the bottom of the trade range to the $8,120.00 price handle (and potentially establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) before moving into Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Phase C is arguably the most volatile phase, which could propel the formation to higher highs on successive Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) before moving into the final distribution phases and pushing price down below the lower support handle at $8,120.00 in a bid to complete the cycle. On the 1D, two key items of note: (i) volume is currently trending downward as the PA moves lower, suggesting we may be coming close to the bottom of this move down, and (ii) the Volume Oscillator has moved into negative territory and printed a significant negative value (-17.54%), suggesting a trend shift is imminent. If I were to hazard a guess, it would appear we may have between 1 -2 more macro moves down before the trend should reverse again. Typically, strong reversals occur when the Volume Oscillator prints values above 30%. On the 1D, two key items of note: (i) volume is currently trending downward as the PA moves lower, suggesting we may be coming close to the bottom of this move down, and (ii) the Volume Oscillator has moved into negative territory and printed a significant negative value (-17.54%), suggesting a trend shift is imminent. If I were to hazard a guess, it would appear we may have between 1 -2 more macro moves down before the trend should reverse again. Typically, strong reversals occur when the Volume Oscillator prints values above 30%. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Enters a Phase B Wyckoff AccumulationHappy Saturday. My price target for that most recent breakdown missed the bottom by $20 (too low), so I have some mixed feelings on that one. However, I do hope everyone found an entry into a short position. This climactic breakdown to $9,060 during the Phase E Wyckoff Distribution exhausted the full cause built into the formation during the last distribution cycle. At conclusion, the formation moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation range to build cause again and determine the upcoming direction. Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Accumulation immediately following the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,060.00. The Selling Climax (SC) at $9,060.00 established the lower end of the support range. The PA then turned upward on the Automatic Reaction (AR) to the $9,450.00 price handle, establishing both resistance and the preliminary trade range. After establishing the prelim trade range, the PA moved downward towards support for a Secondary Test (ST) of support to the $9,300 handle, before moving upward towards resistance for a Secondary Test (ST) to the price handle of $9,480 to complete Phase A of Wyckoff Accumulation. The formation has now moved into a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation. Some items of note with the current formation: (i) the current PA remains constrained below the resistance line established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $9,960.00 price handle suggesting a bearish bias, and (ii) the Secondary Test (ST) of resistance topped out at $9,480.00 - below the Automatic Reaction (AR) price handle of $9,540 also suggesting weak demand at this price range and bearish bias. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has mirrored the PA on the 15 Minute with respect to support, resistance and trade ranges. Two key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart (i) the PA following the Selling Climax has remained constrained below the resistance line established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle suggesting a bearish bias, and (ii) the Secondary Test (ST) of resistance topped out at $9,480.00 - below the Automatic Reaction (AR) price handle of $9,540 (mirroring the 15M Intraday activity) also suggesting weak demand at this price range and bearish bias. Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains within Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. The PA of the formation has moved below the lower end of resistance towards the midpoint of the trading range and is currently pushing lower inside of a red daily candle. Typically, after a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT), the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible and moving into Phase C. In the current formation, a Phase B Upward Thrust (UT) was printed at the $10,420 price handle. Since then, the PA has gradually pulled back to the $9,060 price handle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term and move lower towards the bottom of the trade range to the $8,120.00 price handle (and potentially establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) before moving into Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Phase C is arguably the most volatile phase, which could propel the formation to higher highs on successive Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) before moving into the final distribution phases and pushing price down below the lower support handle at $8,120.00 in a bid to complete the cycle. I would imagine in the near term, an Upward Thrust (UT) towards resistance should happen. A Bearish Triangle was recently invalidated on the 15M Intraday suggesting a move higher is in play in the near term. Should the formation PA break resistance on a Sign of Strength (SOS) on a move above the $9,450 price handle and pull back into the resistance range without falling below the lower line of resistance at $9,480 (a Back-Up), this would suggest a bullish move higher could be in play before moving into a Wyckoff Distribution cycle. However, should an Upward Thrust fall back into the trade range, we would have to wait until the formation Jumps the Creek into Phase C (or sells off) to determine the direction of the next move. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
1
Bitcoin Enters a Phase E Wyckoff DistributionHappy Thursday. While Bitcoin pushes forward into a more bearish market in the near term, the news cycle around cryptocurrency and stablecoins continue to dominate news cycles and continues to be very upbeat. Bank Frick, the cryptocurrency friendly bank in Lichtenstein, now processes payments in USDC as an alternative to processing payments via the SWIFT system. "With the addition of USDC, we enable our customers to process USD payments quickly and token-based. Compared to the classic SWIFT procedure, the processing time is significantly reduced," said Stefan Rauti, head of blockchain banking at Bank Frick. Crypto-Friendly Bank Frick Now Processes Payments Via USDC Stablecoin, Says it is Faster Than SWIFT Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a Phase C Wyckoff Distribution (arguably the most volatile phase in a Wyckoff Distribution), shortly after the PA formed a “Creek” of cascading lower lows. This PA was followed by the initial Upward Thrust (UT) at the Jump Across the Creek which failed to at least hit the lower resistance line at $9,860, signaling a potential Distribution was underway. After a brief consolidation period throughout the mid-range of the formation, the PA volatility came in relentless wave after wave: four Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) and a test of the $9,600.00 support level. The UTADs topped out at $9,880.00, $9,840.00, $10,000.00, and $9,960.00 respectively, yet none of the UTADs decisively broke the $10,000.00 resistance level, also signaling a potential Distribution was underway. Shortly after, the PA decisively broke through the lower support handle at $9,660.00 and subsequently tested support at $9,600.00 on a Sign of Weakness (SOW) signaling entry into a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution. After moving higher to the midpoint of the trade range to $9,780.00, the PA smashed through the lower support handle again at $9,660.00 and pushed through support at $9,600.00 to the $9,580.00 price handle on a second consecutive Sign of Weakness (SOW). Once the formation exits the trade range and the PA moves below the lower support handle of $9,660.00, it will signal the PA has moved into the final phase (Phase E) of a Wyckoff Distribution, and climactic price action should happen shortly after. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has mirrored the PA on the 15 Minute chart With Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD) at $9,880.00, $9,840.00, and $10,000.00 respectively. Three key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart which add to the argument a Wyckoff Phase E Distribution is unfolding (i) during the Upward Thrusts After Distribution (UTAD), none decisively broke the $10,000.00 resistance level, suggesting a turn lower was in play, (ii) the PA continued to follow the trendline established from the Last Point of Support (LPS) at the $8,820.00 handle, until the PA broke decisively downward after forming a higher low (and LPSY) from rejection of the $10,000.00 price handle, and (iii) that decisive break resulted in a collapse through the critical lower support handle of $9,660.00 and through support at $9,600.00 in a single candle. All these signs appear to signal a Phase E Wyckoff Distribution is about to occur. The formation of the 4H Intraday chart currently has about $1,000.00 of downside cause built into the formation from the congestion, which would suggest a target price of $8,740 once the climactic action of the Phase E Wyckoff Distribution exhausts all the downside cause in a Selling Climax (SC). Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains with Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. Typically, after a Phase B upward thrust, the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. Currently the formation on the 1D is printing a red candle, which is currently at higher low relative to the previous red candle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term and move lower towards the bottom of the trade range to the $8,120.00 price handle. Congruently, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are both signaling a Phase E Wyckoff Distribution is underway as well. My expectation is for the formation to move lower in the near term, with a current price target at the $8,740 handle, followed by consolidation and distribution around this range before the next leg down. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
S&P 500 breaks down from distribution structure with P&F targetS&P 500 futures slumped 1.6% to 3130 as of the current London session with increasing supply. Yesterday heavy selling was observed during the first two hours and the last two hours of the US session. Current level around 3130 might provide some support. Should S&P 500 violate this level, it could hit the Point & Figure distribution projected targets from 3052–3067. Check out the video for a complete walk through of the daily market analysis of S&P 500 futures (ES) for 11 Jun 2020 trading session. In this video, I am going to show you the market recap on the last session, plus one trade review in the M3 timeframe (including entry, exit and the rationale behind). Going forward, I will cover the bias, the key levels to pay attention to, and the potential setup for the US session later. I encourage you to watch my daily market analysis video yesterday below if you haven't in order to better relate with the market recap and trade review. Bias - down (Day trading); Up (Swing trading) Key levels - Resistance: 3210, 3180, ; Support: 3130, 3060 Potential setup - look for a test of the H4 down accelerated bar (around 3160–3170) and short upon rejection. Or to long upon reversal from the key supporting levels. Disclaimer: The information in this presentation is solely for educational purpose and should not be taken as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by mingjong
Bitcoin Enters a Phase D Wyckoff DistributionHappy Monday. It seems the season of change for Bitcoin may be upon us in the near term, which again seems counter-intuitive considering the current news cycle. Nevertheless, it can provide some excellent buying opportunities for cold storage at excellent value as Distribution pushes forward. With that, let’s get into the Trading Analysis… The 15M Intraday Chart Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a normal Wyckoff Accumulation from the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,280 through the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,880. The formation then moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Distribution and appeared to experience a Change of Character (CHoCH) in Phase B, signaling a shift into a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation Phase. The first Shakeout drove the PA down to the $9,660 on a Secondary Test (ST) of the low formed at $9,720 on the Automatic Reaction (AR), to establish the trading range for support. Looking at the 15M Intraday Chart, the formation moved into a normal Wyckoff Accumulation from the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,280 through the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,880. The formation then moved into a Phase A Wyckoff Distribution and appeared to experience a Change of Character (CHoCH) in Phase B, signaling a shift into a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation Phase. The first Shakeout drove the PA down to the $9,660 on a Secondary Test (ST) of the low formed at $9,720 on the Automatic Reaction (AR), to establish the trading range for support. Phase C started with a Creek formation which is expected in Phase C of a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation. Typically we would expect to see a Sign of Strength (SOS) at the conclusion of the accumulation (called a “Jump Across the Creek”), which would appear as a strong upward move in the PA to the Resistance Line, followed by a small pullback to a Last Point of Support (LPS) (generally withing the upper and lower boundaries of resistance) and a subsequent bullish advance. Instead, the formation failed to rally to or above lower resistance line at the $9,860 handle (formed by the earlier Secondary Test (ST) in Phase A) which would suggest the formation was experiencing a Change of Character (CHoCH) and moving into a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution. A second attempt by the PA to push higher stalled out at $$9,780 (which formed a lower high) and a subsequent PA print below the lower support line at $9,660 signaled a Sign of Weakness (SOW). The 4H Intraday Chart Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation has mirrored the PA on the 15 Minute chart constraining accumulation activity inside the lower trade range between $9,740 and $9,660. Three key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart which add to the argument a Wyckoff Phase D Distribution is underway (i) when the formation moved to Jump Across the Creek, the initial move down to establish the creek caused the PA to break the support line at $9600, suggesting a bearish bias is now in play on the 4H Chart, (ii) the Upward Thrust (UT) from the Jump Across the Creek failed to at least rise to or surpass the lower resistance line at $9,840 and, (iii) lower highs and higher lows have formed on all PA since the Upward Thrust (UT). All these signs appear to signal a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution is currently underway. The 1D Chart Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains with Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. Typically, after a Phase B upward thrust, the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. Currently the formation on the 1D is printing a green candle, which is currently a lower high than the previous candle. My expectation is the 1D formation should continue to print lower highs over the near term before. Congruently, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are both signaling a Phase D Wyckoff Distribution is underway as well. My expectation is for the formation to move lower in the near term, with a current price target at the $8,740 handle, followed by consolidation and distribution around this range before the next leg down. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
9
Bitcoin Enters a Phase B Wyckoff Distribution on 4H IntradayHappy Friday. It seems the season of Bitcoin may be changing, which of course seems counter-intuitive considering the current news cycle. While the market seems to be preparing for the next legs down, on the fundamental side, it seems Bitcoin is finally getting its due. Recently the acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks solicited input from the public on cryptocurrency use in the financial sector. On the surface this seems like click-bait, but when we dig deeper, one item of interest is Brian Brooks is the former Chief Legal Officer (CLO) of Coinbase. US Bank Regulator OCC Asks for Public Input on Cryptocurrency Use in Financial Sector Be sure to check out the Advanced Notice of Proposed Rule Making linked in the article and provide some feedback. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation realized the target price of $9,860 suggested in yesterday’s market analysis, which signaled Preliminary Supply (PSY). Shortly after, it pushed one box higher to $9,880 in a Buying Climax (BC), which signaled the beginning of a potential Phase A Wyckoff Distribution underway on the 4H chart. The Automatic Reaction (AR) pulled back to $9,720, and formed the preliminary trade range between $9,880 and $9,720 to conclude Phase A. As the formation moved into Phase B, it printed a lower Secondary Test (ST) at $9,840 - just underneath the upper end of the trade range, then turned lower and pushed through the initial support established at $9,740 from the Automatic Reaction (AR) to the $9,660 price level on a Sign of Weakness (SOW). We need to peek at the 15M Intraday chart to get an idea of what’s happening here… Looking at the 15M chart, we see the formation established support for the Sign of Weakness (SOW) at the $9,660 price point, then performed a Secondary Test (ST) of the support at $9,660 before printing a Shakeout Spring to the $9,600 level. Two key takeaways from analyzing this PA (i) the move to the downside occurred almost immediately after breaking the support trend line established at the $9,460 low which formed after signaling a Sign of Strength (SOS) and subsequent rise to the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,860, and (ii) support at $9,660 has been tested and confirmed four times as of the time of this writing. The formation continues to establish support at this level, with price currently confined in the $9,720 - $9,660 trade range. This PA appears to confirm a normal Phase B Wyckoff Distribution is currently underway on the Intraday time frame. Recall from yesterday’s analysis of the 1D Chart, during Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution, large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. Given this appears to be a normal Wyckoff Distribution, my expectation would be gradual rise back to the $9,880 upper resistance level, with a potential Upward Thrust (UT) to a price point somewhere around the $10,000 – mid $9,000’s, before turning back down and moving into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution. Currently the formation on the 4H Intraday has $300 of cause built in from the consolidation, which suggests a price target of $9,420, should the high immediately after the Sign of Weakness (SOW) at $9,720 behave as the Last Point of Supply (LPSY). As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price re-calibration. Currently the formation on the 1D is printing a red candle, pushing the PA lower. My expectation is the 1D formation should begin to print lower highs over the near term before moving onto Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Congruently, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are both signaling a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation is underway as well. Were I to hazard a guess, it would appear that $9,200 may be in the cards in the foreseeable future before re-establishing support for the next leg down. I would imagine the $9,900 - $10,000 region will be the eventual target of an Upward Thrust (UT) on the 4H Intraday before dropping back down to form another lower high and so on over the near term until Phase C begins on the 1D chart. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOFAgent1
6
Bitcoin Consolidation Cont in the $9,780 - $9,640 Range (W Acc)Happy Thursday. Sometimes it’s amazing just to see relentless pressure to push the PA higher. Seems now Bitcoin is being taken even more seriously as a competitor to conventional fiat currencies - Enough so that Bitcoin Core has just released a new experimental software update called “Asmap” which is designed to hedge the chain from potential malfeasance and attacks from “players the size of nation-states which could effectively fracture the Bitcoin network.” Latest Bitcoin Core Code Release Protects Against Nation-State Attacks Hardening the network against nation-state malfeasance and bad actors is a significant achievement given the current appetite for stimulus and currency debasement from countries worlwide. Interesting times. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation continues to progress through a regular Wyckoff Accumulation pattern. The formation has just pushed past the key resistance level of $9,680 established earlier, signaling a Sign of Strength (SOS) on the most recent Upward Thrust (UT). One key piece to keep an eye on as the PA continues, is the formation is starting to hug the bullish support level formed by the Last Point of Support (LPS) at the $8,820 level. A break in this support line would flip bias from bullish to bearish on this Intraday chart. The PA appears to have stalled out at the $9,860 level on the current rise, and we need to peek at the 15M Intraday chart to get an idea why that’s the case… On the 15M Intraday we can see since the Secondary Test (ST) resistance line at $9,640 was broken, the formation has continued to advance in a stepping-stone method in triple-top and double-top breakouts (both triple top and double tops are bullish in Point and Figure) all the way through the $9,860 price level, before running into resistance from the trendline established with the recent high of $10,420. Between the 4H and the 15M Intraday charts, I am left with the impression the price may pull back before advancing again. If the formation is in a Wyckoff Phase E Accumulation, I would imagine the formation pulls back to about the $9,640 level before advancing again. However, if the formation remains in a Wyckoff Phase B Accumulation, while unlikely, I could see the formation potentially pulling back as far as the lower end of the trade range to $9,280 before advancing. I think in my mind, the most reasonable lowest low on the pullback might be resistance at $9,420. Currently the formation on the 4H Intraday has $420 of cause built in from the consolidation, which suggests a price target of $9,860, should the low at $9,460 behave as the Last Point of Support (LPS). As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price re-calibration. Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains with Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. Typically, after a Phase B upward thrust, the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. My expectation is the 1D formation should begin to print lower highs over the near term before moving onto Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Counterintuitively, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are signaling short term Wyckoff Accumulation is underway - think of it as a microcosm of Intraday activity which is encompassed by the consolidated view of the 1D. I would expect to see more stepstone accumulation and distribution to appear, and move the formation into the higher $9,000’s region ($9,800 - $9,900) should the recent should the low at $9,460 behave as the Last Point of Support (LPS). Should a reversal candle print on the 4H, this would suggest consolidation will continue, and I would imagine the $9,900 - $10,000 region will be the eventual target before dropping back down to form another lower high and so on over the near term until Phase C begins. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOFAgent1
2
Bitcoin Consolidation in the $9,640 - $9,280 of a Wyckoff AccumHappy Wednesday. I hope everyone ended up relatively unscathed with the boomerang Bart action this past Monday evening. Never a dull moment trading Bitcoin. It’s interesting to see the discussion around digital currencies begin creeping into the US elections campaign narrative recently. Two days ago, US Representative Cynthia Lummis had a very wide-ranging interview with Coindesk about purchasing her first Bitcoin in 2013 and becoming and advocate for digital currency. Meet the US Senate Candidate Who’s Invested in Bitcoin Since 2013 An interesting sidebar is the Governor of Colorado Jared Polis holds the distinction of being one of the first politicians to accept Bitcoin campaign donations while running for re-election as a US Congressional Representative for the state of Colorado in 2014 directly after an FEC ruling in that same year. Congressman Jared Polis Accepting Bitcoin Donations Following FEC Ruling Perhaps some form of mainstream adoption may be closer than it appears. Time will tell. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation built up a tremendous amount of cause during the consolidation period right before the breakout to the $10,420 level. However, once the formation hit that high, it retraced the full breakout 100% and fell further collapsed to $9,280 before rebounding to the $9,420 handle. Bart much? Since the Selling Climax at $9,280, the formation appears to have started a regular Wycoff Accumulation pattern. The characteristics of this pattern are more visible on the 15 Minute Intraday Chart After establishing support from the Selling Climax (SC) at $9,280, the formation established the initial upper end of the trade range at $9,440 from the Automatic Reaction (AR) and fell into a tight trade range between $9,440 and $9,420. The formation appears to have continued progress during consolidation into a normal Wyckoff Phase B Accumulation as it pushed above the initial upper resistance level at $9,440 to $9,640. Since that thrust upward, PA has been confined in the $9,640 - $9,440 trade range as of this writing. Currently there is approximately $300 of cause built into the formation during this recent consolidation period, which would suggest a current price target of $9,800. As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price recalibration. The Volume Oscillator printing a negative number (-16.54%), suggesting a shift in the current trend is on the horizon. Looking at the 1D chart, the formation remains with Phase B of a normal Wyckoff Distribution. Typically, after a Phase B upward thrust, the formation will begin to print lower highs as large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. My expectation is the 1D formation should begin to print lower highs over the near term before moving onto Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Counter-intuitively, on shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts, I would expect to see more step-stone accumulation to appear and move the formation into the higher $9,000’s region ($9,800 - $9,900) before dropping back down to form another lower high and so on over the near term until Phase C begins. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOFAgent1
2
Bitcoin Consolidation in the $9,620 - $9,120 of a Wyckoff DistHappy Monday everyone. This morning on CNBC I came across an interesting article about the current global dollar shortage and the moves the FED is taking to provide access to dollars during this massive (and temporary) surge in demand. It’s fascinatingly counter-intuitive in light of the recent waves of money printing from the FED and the US Treasury. A Global Rush Into the US Dollar is Driving Extreme Market Moves and a Temporary Shortage Recently there has been a bunch of activity with Tether and other Stablecoins, suggesting a broader move into the cryptocurrency space, and potential pent up demand for Bitcoin. I speculated at one point, some of this might be attributed to investors and businesses moving their cash into Stablecoins to hedge against the ramifications of negative interest rates, bank liquidity issues and fees. Shortly after Jeremy Allaire of Circle had some similar thoughts on the subject based upon what they were seeing as well. Circle CEO Claims ‘Explosive’ Stablecoin Demand From Everyday Businesses It would be interesting to see if Stablecoins become a stopgap for the temporary USD shortage in the coming weeks. Interesting times. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation remains range-bound towards the upper end of the trade range (between $9,620 and $9,280) in a regular consolidation pattern for a Wyckoff Distribution Phase. The upper trend-line formed from the Upward Thrust (UT) on the Secondary Test (ST) remains unbroken, and no Change of Character (CHoCH) has been signaled at the time of this writing (which would suggest a move to re-accumulate from this normal distribution phase). The formation appears to be in Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution currently. My expectation for the near future is the formation will continue to remain range-bound within the upper limits of the trade range (between $9,620 and $9,280) and potentially have another Upward Thrust (UT) before turning lower to retest the lower limits of the trade range (between $9,280 and $9,120) before printing a Sign of Weakness (SOW). Currently there is approximately $1,020 of cause built into the formation during this consolidation period, which would suggest a current price target of $8,580. As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price re-calibration. The Volume Oscillator is again showing a bearish divergence from the formation and is printing a negative number (-39.32%), suggesting a strong shift in the current trend is on the horizon. For reference, right before the previous drop from $9,300 to $8,640, the Volume Oscillator signaled a bearish divergence and printed a negative number of similar magnitude (-45.78%). Looking at the 1D chart, the PA is compressing towards the upper end of the trade range yet remains pinned beneath the upper trend line formed from the $10,060 high. My expectation the formation will print a lower high over the next few days remains unchanged. My feeling is we will visit the lower end of the 1D trade range ($8,120), retest the lower end, and potentially establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) down towards $7,700 before reversing and moving higher again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
1
Bitcoin Consolidation Continues in a Second Wyckoff Redist PhaseHappy Wednesday everyone. I woke this morning not only to a breakout above the Redistribution trade range this morning, but an interesting Tweet from Barry Silbert about the slides in the Goldman client call this morning as it relates to Bitcoin. "We believe that a security whose appreciation is primarily dependent on whether someone else is willing to pay a higher price for it is not a suitable investment for our clients." - Goldman Sachs. Looking at the Intraday Chart, the formation moved above the upper end of the trade range ($8,960) to $9,000 in an apparent Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) and signaled a false buy confirmation before reversing lower. The PA broke through the floor of the lower end of the trade range, signaling a second Sign of Weakness (SOW) and fell to a low of $8,700 before turning higher. Overnight, the formation formed double top (a bullish signal in Point and Figure) at $8,720, signaled a buy at $8,740, confirmed the buy signal at $8,760 and advanced on what appeared to be a bullish breakout. The target price of the formation on this breakout (based upon the Horizontal Count Method) should be $9,300. The formation PA advanced on weak volume to $9,180 signaling a potential high pole reversal was in play with a target price of $9,020. I would expect once the formation to retraces to the $9,020 price level, it should reverse and advance again if the bullish bias prevails. My feeling is a bearish narrative still prevails and I would lean towards a retrace and eventual continuation of the larger Distribution pattern for a few reasons. When looking at the consolidation period and the recent breakout, there is a bearish divergence on the Volume Oscillator, which suggests a low/declining volume on the price advance. Also, a value below zero (-15.92%) on the breakout signals a potential trend shift incoming - both bearish indicators. The advance did not hit the target price based upon the cause built from the congestion in the formation before turning lower. Furthermore, the advance was reversed just below a major resistance level ($9,200). The bias remains bearish on the higher time frame (1D) as the Wyckoff Distribution continues to play out, looking to retest the lower end of the trade range at $8,120 and establish a potential Sign of Weakness (SOW) somewhere between $8,120 and the $7,700 level. Looking at the 1D chart, the PA remains in a green candle. It pushed higher to $9,180 before stalling out. The current price of BTC is $9,136 as of this writing and, unless the daily closes out above $9,120 (preventing a reversal), the formation will print a lower high on the 1D. My expectation the formation will print a lower high over the next few days remains unchanged. The formation still has room to run (up to $9,280) and can still print a lower high, but my feeling is we will visit the lower end of the 1D trade range ($8,120), retest the lower end, and potentially establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) down towards $7,700 before reversing and moving higher again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin Consolidation in a Second Wyckoff Re-Distribution PhaseHopefully, everyone managed to have a great Memorial Day yesterday filled with a little bit of the normal we are all looking forward to returning. Looking at the Intraday Chart, the formation appears to remain solidly within a second Wyckoff Redistribution. After the Selling Climax (SC) at $8,640 established the floor of the Redistribution trade range, the Automatic Reaction (AR) turned north to $8,860 and established a prelim upper end of the trade range for this Redistribution phase. The formation turned downward again and performed a successful Secondary Test (ST) of lower end of the trade range at $8,680 before turning north again to signal a double top (a bullish signal in Point and Figure) at $8,860. The formation continued to push past the double top to signal a buy at $8,880 and confirm the buy signal at $8,900 before pushing higher and stalling out at $8,960 to establish the upper end of the new trade range at. The lower end of the new trade range would be the prior high at $8,860. Given we are in a Wyckoff Distribution phase which has yet to retest the lower end of the 1D (higher time frame) trade range, and the 4H Intraday trade range just exited a recent Redistribution phase, this confirmation to buy signaled at $8,900 would appear to be a false buy signal. Immediately after establishing the upper end of the new trade range at $8,960, the formation turned lower and broke through the lower end of the new trade range at $8,860, as the PA pushed down to $8,840 in a failed test of the trade range. The formation turned higher again, and pushed past the upper end of the trade range at $8,960 forming a double top (a bullish signal in Point and Figure), signaled a buy at $$8,980 and confirmed the buy signal at $9,000 on a perceived Sign of Strength (SOS). Again, the PA stalled after the buy signal was confirmed, the formation turned lower again, and broke through the lower end of the trade range a second time. It formed a double bottom at $8,840 (a bearish signal in Point and Figure), signaled a sell at $8,820, and confirmed the sell signal at $8,800. Given back to back Signs of Weakness (SOS), I would expect the high of $9,000 is an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) rather than a Sign of Strength (SOS). Currently, the formation has only $360 of cause built in from the consolidation in this second Redistribution range, which is insufficient to establish a decisive move in either direction. My expectation is this redistribution should play out in a similar manner as the prior Redistribution consolidation range, with almost as many candles in the horizontal congestion count before a move downward. The first Redistribution level had a horizontal count of 14 candles before sufficient cause was built up for a move down. The current Redistribution level has 6, so I would imagine we may remain here for another day or two before the next move. Looking at the 1D chart, after the PA flipped to a green candle, it pushed higher before stalling out at $9,000. The current price of BTC is $8,843 as of this writing and, unless the daily closes out above $8,840 (preventing a reversal), the formation will print a lower high on the 1D. My expectation is for the formation to print a lower high over the next few days. The formation still has a ton of room to run (up to $9,280) and can still print a lower high, although I see it as very unlikely while the PA is so strictly confined on the Intraday and signaling Signs of Weakness (SOW). Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin in a Second Wyckoff Re-Distribution PhaseHappy Memorial Day to those based in the US. I’m hoping for a fun day filled with BBQ and all the other requisites a lazy summer holiday should require. Hopefully, everyone managed to find a short position before the next Wyckoff Distribution leg took hold. Looking at the Intraday Chart, the Wyckoff re-Distribution range did not take long to play out. Once the Intraday trade range re-tested the earlier $9,300 Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) forming a double top (a bullish signal in Point and Figure) and failed to push past it, the double top then acted as a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in the formation. In my post yesterday, I mentioned the target price for the downside based upon the formation was $8,740. The target price at $8,740 was realized yesterday as the price pushed down to $8,740 and beyond it to $8,640 in what could only be described as a Memorial Day Clearance Sale selloff – and formed a Low Pole on the chart. This suggested a Low Pole Reversal with a target price of $8,900 should come into play. The price rebounded to $8,860, but failed to advance beyond it, setting up a trade range between $8,860 and $8,640. It would appear we are now in the second Wyckoff Redistribution pit stop on our way down to the lower end of the trade range ($8,120) for the higher time frame (1D). My expectation would be the second Wyckoff Redistribution should play out very much like the first, however I do not expect an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) during this redistribution phase. Although if one did happen, it would fall within the bounds of normal expectation for a Wyckoff Redistribution. Remember, the Composite Man is always looking to reduce slippage while unloading their bags. There is insufficient consolidation currently on this chart to provide a target price using the Horizontal Method, suggesting the consolidation period still has some time to go. The Vertical Method suggests a price target of $8,520 should the price fall to $8,680, form a double bottom (a bearish signal in Point and Figure), and break $8,640. Looking at the 1D chart, after the PA flipped to a red candle, the PA pushed downward, formed a double bottom at $8,800 (a bearish signal in Point and Figure), then pushed to $8,780 sending a sell signal, before breaking through $8,760 and confirming the bearish PA. The Wyckoff Distribution on the higher trade range always takes longer to play out, but it gives us an idea of where things are going as we move towards the bottom of the trade range. Using the Vertical Method, the suggested target price on this distribution for this higher time frame is $7,680, which would align with the $7,720 floor I show as the next major support after the $8,120 lower end of the trade range. For reference, I never use the Vertical Method on higher time frames to determine price targets. It’s just my preference - not a statement on the method. Rather, I use the Vertical Method on the higher time frame to get an idea of where things are going and, in this case, to see if a potential move below the $8,120 lower trade range floor might be in play. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
Bitcoin in a Wyckoff Re-Distribution PhaseIt’s been an interesting 24 hours or so with Bitcoin as the PA has been largely confined to a very tight trade range. Much as it can suck waiting for a definitive move, patience is the better part of valor in these scenarios to avoid getting chopped up. Looking at the Intraday Chart, it appeared as though demand came back into the market and established an accumulation range between $9,140 and $9,300. Originally, I thought we might have entered a Wyckoff re-Accumulation phase. Yet the target price the formation was signaling ($10,000) seemed wrong, given the need to retest the lower end of the trade range ($8,120) before a potential Upward Thrust above $10,060 and the higher time frames were in the midst of a Wyckoff Distribution. In the comments section of my original post yesterday on reddit/Bitcoinmarkets, I mentioned my target entry was $9,340 for this potential breakout. My rationale for this entry was to be certain I received a confirmation of the breakout before jumping in. Let’s see how I came to change my position from Accumulation range to re-Distribution range. The first drop to the $9,300 level established Preliminary Support (PS). The subsequent drop to $8,800 on a Selling Climax (SC) established the lower end of this trade range, and the Automatic Reaction (AR) pushed the price upward to $9,140, which established the initial upper end of the trade range during this re-accumulation phase. After performing a Secondary Test (ST), the price pushed past the initial upper boundary of the trade range (as expected in Wyckoff Accumulation) and established a new upper end of the trade range at $9,260. Much like the original market analysis, these initial conditions remain the same. Shortly after, the formation pushed price past the newly established upper end of the trade range (at $9,260) to $9,300 before falling back to $9,140 and advancing again. Initially, I took this move as a Sign of Strength (SOS), yet after the subsequent retest the $9,300 high, the price behaved as resistance. This signaled a Wyckoff re-Distribution was underway on the Intraday, and the move to the $9,300 resistance level was an Upward Thrust (UT) on the re-distribution rather than a Sign of Strength (SOS). I would expect the distribution to continue in a relatively short period and would target a price under $9,100 for entry into a short position. The target price on the re-distribution is $8,740. Looking at the 1D chart, we can see the PA has flipped to a red candle which resonates with the re-distribution formation on the 4H Intraday. The Wyckoff re-Distribution range reflected on the 4H Intraday, has congruence with my expectation the formation will re-test the lower end of the trade range ($8,120) before to eventually have a final Upward Thrust to the $10,300 level. The current scenario I see (given the recent PA) is in the near term is a move to the $8,740ish range. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
2
Bitcoin Entering a Re-Accumulation Range During Wyckoff DistMy hope is most were positioned in a short for that drop to the $8,800, got a chance to cover and move into a long to enjoy some of the bounce once the bottom of the new TR was established. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, supply came into the market and pushed the price of BTC to a low of $9,300 before recovering to the $9,600 level and subsequently falling to the $8,800 level signaling a new re-accumulation range for the 4H Intraday. Before dissecting this a bit, let me be clear – on the macro level (higher time frames) we are decidedly still in the beginning stages of a Wyckoff Distribution seeking the lower end of the TR at $8,120. However, the Intraday is signaling a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation phase is underway. Think of this as the pause at the gas station for fuel and snacks before the larger Distribution continues. The first drop to the $9,300 level established Preliminary Support (PS). The subsequent drop to $8,800 on a Selling Climax (SC) established the lower end of this trade range, and the Automatic Reaction (AR) pushed the price upward to $9,140, which established the initial upper end of the trade range during this re-accumulation phase. After performing a Secondary Test (ST), the price pushed past the initial upper boundary of the trade range (as expected in Wyckoff Accumulation) and established a new upper end of the trade range at $9,260. Shortly after, the formation signaled a Sign of Strength (SOS) as the price pushed past the newly established upper end of the trade range (at $9,260) to $9,300 before falling back to $9,140 and advancing again. It seems after the Sign of Strength, the upper book ends at $9,140 and $9,260 are acting as support and resistance, suggesting entry into Phase D of the Wyckoff Re-Accumulation Phase, with a target price of $9,640. This would make sense because the upper trendline of the formation which started this larger Wyckoff Distribution is around the $9,640 range and would effectively re-establish Demand in this zone for the larger Wyckoff Distribution continue. Looking at the 1D chart, we can see the PA has pushed the price above the psychologically significant $9,200 range and no significant resistance is reflected until at least the $9,600 level. For the formation to flip bullish on the 1D, the PA would have to advance to the $9,940 level to signal a double top (which is bullish in Point and Figure), advance further to the $9,960 level to signal a buy, and break the $9,980 level to confirm. Despite the Wyckoff re-Accumulation range reflected on the 4H Intraday, this scenario (from my perspective) is highly unlikely at this time. While I expect the upper end of the TR to eventually have a final Upward Thrust to the $10,300 level, the current scenario I see in the near term is a move to $9,600 - $9,640 range before resuming the Wyckoff Distribution down to the lower end of the TR ($8,120). Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1