Pointofcontrol
WHAT'S HAPPENING? ⚡️ SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN LOCKSTEP 😢In this video I explain the current state of the Bitcoin market as seen through the lens of the latest pattern found in the forecast model, "The Lightning Volume". The Federal Reserves interest rate policy continues to create considerable headwinds for the Bitcoin price. When could it end? Watch this video and let me know your thoughts? Thanks for watching!
Daytrade Plan for XAUUSDFollowing the previous XAUUSD post, the price pattern has completed the descending triangle formation and is reaching to the recommended TP2 zone, where traders should definitely start to take profits.
The reason why we should start scaling out of sell/short positions here is because there are a cluster from multiple indications on this demand zone at 1900 area including:
1) POC from fixed range volume profile of the previous swing low-swing high
2) 161.8 target from fibonacci after the consolidation of descending triangle formation
3) EMA-200 day period
Evidently, this demand zone is considered strong based on the cluster of 3 technical indications
There will likely be a technical rebound near this area, where we can trade against the trend for a very short trade. However, it would not be wise to place a trade right away.
The price actions should begin to form a range of consolidation and show a lower high first in 15m timeframe before placing a trade.
SL: at the lowest point in 15m timeframe
TP: at two cayenne lines are acting as minor resistances and should then be the TPs for this short trade plan: 1910, 1917 respectively.
Again, this short trade plan is trading against trend which can be very risky. Therefore, do not forget to put a stoploss and place in proper risk management on your positions as always
Bitcoin Fighting Point Of ControlWhen analyzing Bitcoin, we can see that we had a nice move up from the lows. After this move up, we can see on the chart that it's struggling to get past the Point Of Control. Usually when the price gets rejected from the point of control, it tends to find the Value Area Low of the range before continuing its move up of finding new lows. Since bitcoin did break out of its descending triangle, I would expect to see the price continue to move higher and test the Value Area High (Blueline above POC) before a possible retracement to either retest the Value Area Low or dynamic resistance that we just broke out of.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
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Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Calculate Your Risk/Reward!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
BTC 30m forming Double Top on VPVR POC and Trend WavesDouble Top is a bearish formation. In this case, it's being formed on the Point Of Control (POC) as a neckline, the strongest support/resistance on Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR), which shows what price bulls and bears fought the most.
If this formation breaks the neckline, the potential target price is exactly 26000.
We can predict the potential target by measuring the higher Top to the neckline and transferring it below it. As you can see, a gap in VPVR will enable this price drop if the neckline breaks down.
We also have a double top on the waves at the bottom to support this formation, meaning the trend waves, strength, and candles tell the same story.
Keep in mind low volume and possible manipulation in every decision you make in the low-volume market.
Seeking Hidden Treasure: Navigating Virgin Points of ControlIntroduction: Anchoring in Unfamiliar Waters
Raise the Jolly Roger, folks! We’re setting sail into unexplored waters today. The stock market can be as unpredictable as the seven seas, and every now and then, you need a little treasure map to help navigate through the tempest. Virgin Points of Control, or VPOCs, are like the hidden coves full of buried treasure. Often overlooked by the untrained eye, these gems can be a goldmine if you know how to wield their power. So, batten down the hatches as we dive deep into the enigmatic world of Virgin Points of Control.
Casting the Net: What are Virgin Points of Control?
In the trading world, VPOC is the lingo for the price levels where heavy trading volume once took place, but hasn't been retested by price action since. In layman’s terms, imagine a bustling pirate market where a boatload of trading went down. Then, one day, the market moves elsewhere, leaving behind a ghost town. That, my friends, is your Virgin Point of Control.
The Ghostly Beacon: Spotting VPOCs
A VPOC can be a beacon in the stormy market. To find these mystical points, you’ve got to have your sea charts (read: price and volume charts) handy. Keep an eye out for volume peaks where the price hasn’t returned in a while. There’s your ghost town!
Charting the Course: How to Trade with VPOCs
Setting Sail: Identify the VPOC
First things first, whip out your spyglass and spot those VPOCs. Look for significant volume peaks and valleys that haven’t been revisited.
Heave Ho: Monitor Price Action
Don’t go in guns blazing just yet! Wait for the price to creep back towards the VPOC. When it's within reach, watch how it behaves.
Full Steam Ahead or Abandon Ship: Make the Call
If the price bounces back from the VPOC, there might be a treasure chest waiting. However, if it breaches the VPOC, it’s best to cut your losses and abandon ship.
Pirate’s Bounty: The Benefits of Trading VPOCs
Why should you care about these ghost towns? Here’s why:
High Reward Potential: Hidden treasures, anyone? The untested waters of VPOCs can offer rich pickings.
Valuable Insights: Understanding VPOCs can give you insight into what other traders are thinking, which is like having a pirate’s parrot eavesdrop on your rivals.
Beware the Kraken: The Risks
Just like the high seas, Virgin Points of Control have their fair share of risks:
False Signals: Sometimes, it’s just a siren’s call leading you to shipwreck. The price might tease you by nearing the VPOC and then leaving you high and dry.
Requires Patience: These ghost towns don’t crop up every day. It’s a waiting game, and sometimes the wait can be as long as the voyage of the Flying Dutchman.
FAQs
1. Can I use Virgin Points of Control for any market?
You bet! The stock market, forex, and commodities are all fair game.
2. Is it necessary to use other indicators along with VPOCs?
It's like having a crew on your pirate ship - the more, the merrier! Combining VPOCs with other indicators like moving averages can be a winning strategy.
3. How to identify a VPOC on a chart?
Look for peaks in volume where price hasn’t returned for a significant amount of time.
Charting New Waters: Concluding the Voyage
Virgin Points of Control are like the secret treasure maps of trading. Navigating these waters requires a keen eye, patience, and a dash of daring. With the right mix, VPOCs can be the buried treasure that catapults your trading voyage into legend. Just remember, the sea is a fickle mistress, and a smooth sea never made a skilled sailor. Weigh anchor and set sail, but keep your wits about you! May the trade winds be ever in your favor. Happy treasure hunting!
AAPL: S&P500 RELATIONSHIP / PIVOT / TECHNICALS IN FAVOR OF BEARSDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included a macro analysis of AAPL & its congruent relationship with the S&P 500 INDEX. AAPL is to be consider one of the major players when it comes to overall US MARKET PERFORMANCE & is the reason why understanding AAPL's price action momentum is so vital.
POINTS:
1. AAPL channel deviation where liquidity usually occurs between SUPPLY & DEMAND = 12.50 POINTS
2. Macro Trend: Downtrend Channel; Micro Trend: Uptrend channel with Bearish Ascending Triangle Formation
3. Macro Trend continues to make lower highs & lower lows after peak from January 2022.
TECHNICALS:
RSI LEVELS on the DAILY time frame have been squeezing into overbought territory for the past 4 months.
MACD LEVEL is in common overbought territory where rejection & downturn is indicative.
BULLISH POINT OF CONTROL: 167.50 POINT must be broken to the upside in order to invalidate BEARISH SETUP.
BEARISH POINT OF CONTROL: 155.00 POINT must be broken in order to further validate BEARISH SETUP.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:AAPL
BTC 1h Inverse Cup and Handle breaking last month's VPVR POCInversed Cup and Handle is a very strong bearish reversal pattern. I should have noticed earlier, but I do my own analysis and was looking for something else while this cup was being spilled in my lap.
Why am I posting this late, then?
Well, there is one crucial thing left on this chart. And that is that this pattern has a target price target of 27600, which is below the POC (Point Of Control) on VPVR in the last month, and it is currently retesting it after a breakout.
VPVR POC shows the line of the most significant volume per price level based on the candles shown on the chart at any given moment, which means that it is the most substantial S/R level in this indicator. And as you can see, there is quite a gap below 28k.
So if this pattern breaks POC without significant volume from the bulls, we could retest the 25k level, where the next serious resistance is.
KBE: S&P500 / BANK RUNS / RSI / MACD / DIVERGENCE / BANK CRISIS DESCRIPTION: The chart above shows a relationship between KBE & SPX which is important for the current ongoing banking issues. KBE is a BANK ETF that reflects the overall performance of the banking sector in the United States. At the moment there is a major discrepancy between KBE & SPX value. Normally there is a consistent relationship between the banking sector performance and SPX value but one will have to give in eventually.
POINTS:
1. Deviation is 6.25 Point difference & represent crucial points of control for price action.
2. Vertical Orange Lines represent peak price action for S&P 500 & KBE before correction.
3. AVERAGE CORRECTION OF 12% ON KBE DURING BEAR MARKET.
RSI: Overextended from RSI AVERAGE banking sector can see some pullback in the coming days.
MACD: Currently in EXTREMELY OVERSOLD TERRITORY on MACD
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
AMEX:KBE
SP:SPX
Showcase of the Power of Market Profile AnalysisMarket Profile analysis is a powerful tool for traders and investors alike to analyze price movements in financial markets. The method is based on the concept that price moves in a predictable way, forming patterns that can be observed and analyzed.
The Market Profile chart is a visual representation (not shown here) of market activity, displaying the distribution of price over time. The chart is divided into horizontal sections, each representing a price level. The length of the bar indicates the duration of time during which trades occurred at that price level.
The Market Profile chart can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as areas of high and low volume. The three key components of the Market Profile chart are the Point of Control (POC), the Value Area, and the Single Prints.
The Point of Control (POC) is the price level at which the highest volume of trades occurred during the period under analysis. It represents the most actively traded price level during that time frame, and is often seen as a key support or resistance level.
The Value Area is the range of price levels that contain a specified percentage of the total trading volume during the period under analysis. The Value Area can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as potential trading opportunities.
Single Prints are price levels where trading activity occurred but did not overlap with any other price levels during the period under analysis. These are areas where price discovery occurred, and can be used to identify areas of potential price support or resistance.
By analyzing the Market Profile chart, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. The chart can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as potential trading opportunities based on the volume and duration of trading activity at specific price levels.
Between end of Dec 2022 and end of Jan 2023, the price of the S&P 500 index (SPX) showed major reactions to the price levels drawn by using Market Profile analysis that was done in Oct 2022 . This is a prime example of the power of this trading method. By identifying key levels of support and resistance, traders were able to make more informed trading decisions and take advantage of market opportunities.
In conclusion, Market Profile analysis is a powerful tool for traders and investors who want to gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. By analyzing the distribution of price and volume over time, traders can identify key levels of support and resistance, and take advantage of market opportunities. The example of the S&P 500 index (SPX) in October of last year showcases the power of this trading method, and demonstrates how it can be used to make profitable trades in a dynamic and ever-changing market.
NQ1!: VOLATILITY CYCLES / POINT OF CONTROL / OVER SUPPLY / MACRODESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO analysis on NQ1! which runs a similarly distinctive path to SPY, SPX, & ES1!. This chart is designed to create a clear separation between periods of volatility and shift in momentum. Each cycle beings and ends in the given order of OVERSOLD to OVERBOUGHT to OVERSOLD.
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 900 Points per Supply & Demand Channels. Deviation of 1,000 Points between Supply & Demand Pockets.
2. Current Cycle END was predicted by taking the average of past 4 cycles which results in a MEAN VALUE of 78 BARS.
3. Green Vertical Lines: Beginning of Bear Market & upcoming end of following cycle.
4. Orange Vertical Lines: Represent flip in MACD trajectory and overall shift in Pice Action Momentum.
5. ARCS represent OVERSUPPLY Price Action Momentum where price action lacks consolidation and is making brief REACH OUT of past Supply & Demand Pocket.
IMPORTANT: Current POINT OF CONTROL stands at 11,700 in relation to current Supply & Demand Pocket.
MACD: MACD EMA flips on the DAILY timeframe are indicative of a shift in in momentum.
RSI: A common RSI level of 35 is reached throughout every cycle which is indicative of an upcoming shift in trend.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action must find support at 11,700 with either a strong bounce from bottom of DEMAND ZONE OR SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION at the very least.
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario price action breaks past 11,700 to the downside and further continues downward momentum to 10,700 which would be the SPY LEVEL EQUIVALENT of 360.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
How to trade using Value Areas and POC?A few key concepts when using Market Profile in your trading:
1) Point of Control (POC) acts as price magnets, as they represent the price level where most time was spent during a trading day. Price tends to gravitate towards them.
2) Naked (Not visited) POC acts as stronger magnets than visited POCs.
3) When price enters / breaks into a Value Area, which represents a range of "fair value", price tends to visit the other end of the Value Area. For example above, the price breaks up from the Value Area Low before end of day yesterday, hit the Value Area High this morning.
You definitely won't find these key levels and ranges with traditional support and resistance lines drawing methods. Using Market Profile will give you the edge to become a better trader.
See my previous 2 posts:
SPX hitting huge excess area, which way will it go next?As you can see, the price is sitting in a large excess range, trying to push higher with the bullish momentum since the opening. Looks like it is feeling lots of selling pressure. But if we can break up and into the higher naked value area, there is great opportunity for a bull run to the value area high. Otherwise, we might go back to the value area from yesterday's price action. What's your take?? Will we go up or down?