TSLA: Amazing? Yes! Surprising? Nope.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Tesla is doing today, after the split! Today’s candlestick is quite amazing, but not surprising.
First, let’s see the hourly chart. As we discussed in my previous analysis (link below), Tesla just did a pullback to the 21 ema on Friday, and this wasn’t enough to change the trend. The trend is still bullish , and it has been so for the last few months.
And today’s movement was very good because it cancelled the bearish pattern we saw in the daily chart:
The previous candlestick could be a Dark Cloud Cover pattern if triggered, but it wasn’t. Also, we discussed that this pattern was formed only due to the pullback to the 21 ema in the hourly chart.
Right now, the most important points for Tesla are: The $ 463.60, in the hourly chart, which was the previous resistance in the hourly chart, and will serve as support in the future, according to the polarity inversion, and the 21 ema, at any time frame.
If you are in Tesla, there’s absolutely no reason to sell your positions. You could sell them if the price closes under $ 463.60, but since the trend is so bullish, pullbacks shouldn’t be scary.
If you want to buy it, I’ll repeat: Pullbacks are opportunities to buy . Buy when TSLA is close to the 21 ema.
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Polaritychange
Wells Fargo - trouble?Wells Fargo is in an extremely delicate moment right now. The U$ 28.88 (blue line) seems to be the most important price region, where it was tested several times as support and resistance alike.
The prices are in a support region at the moment (pink line), but the loss of this region could make the prices drop to lower levels (orange or red line). It would be a very risky buy, not worth in my opinion, because we lack bullish signals here. Also, there is something that seems to be a Head and Shoulders pattern (red circles), which is a bearish pattern, but I would wait for a pullback to short the stock. It is very dangerous times and is better be safe than sorry.
EUR.NZD long- Bullish Bat patternFX:EURNZD
EUR.NZD- Bullish Bat pattern.
--" Disclaimer: Im new to harmonics. Also, in general, this is the only time i am seriously analyzing and trading, also sharing this so that I get out of my bad habit, and take some responsibility of my trades and analysis.(This sill be here till the end of the year until I master it.)"
--Feel free to point out any mistakes here or your own idea/views.
DXY is bearish for short term NZD bearish long term.EUR longs in effect.
For the pattern understanding : Bullish Gartley pattern link:- thepatternsite.com
Everything is there in the chart Entry/SL/EXits.
Side Note: My Stop loss is below the polarity change and previous support. 4H close below 1.17472//
So im kind of not trading the patter, its just a reference, this is breaking my rule, but i know the risk also im reinvesting the profits from EUR.CAD trade thus im able to risk more here."This might be the only exception to my trading rule"
bYUING 0.03 lots at aggressive entry will buy more 0.06 lots at breakout entry.
Disclaimer: Im not a financial manager or expert, Trade at your own risk.
NZD/JPY - POSSIBLE SHORT ENTRYFX:NZDJPY
The rate has climbed up and is now testing the two-and-a-half-year falling trendline resistance. The current level is also the former broken neckline of a completed head and shoulders pattern back from February.
I will be looking for selling opportunities on shorter time frames, however the stops should be based above the resistance area (81.00) and possible target - the major support level around 76.00.
- See more at: www.tradeitsimple.com
EUR/AUD - DROP AFTER A FALSE BREAKOUTEURAUD
Last week I wrote an article saying I am looking for a short opportunity just before the rate broke to the upside.
It seems though it was a false breakout as it has dropped quite sharply breaking the two-month-long uptrend and is now testing the old resistance/new support area at 1.4885. I will be looking for a move higher now to the former broken rising trendline around 1.5050 for the rate to form a head and shoulders pattern, however, I will also consider entering smaller short position on the strong break of the current support.
- See more at: www.tradeitsimple.com
AUD/JPY POLARITY CHANGEFX:AUDJPY
After bouncing higher from the 9-month-long rising trendline the rate has stalled a bit at the former support area which should now become new resistance.
I am looking for a strong rejection lower to target another test of the trendline around 84.20.
A break of the resistance area above 85.40 would invalidate my bearish bias for the pair as it would indicate a move higher to test another potential reversal area around 86.00.
GBP/USD AT THE TRIANGLE'S RESISTANCEFX:GBPUSD
The rate has risen to test the symmetrical triangle's resistance which is also an old support/new resistance area.
I have no clear bias at the moment so I will be ready to enter both sides.
For a short position I will be looking for a strong rejection from the resistance like a shooting star or bearish engulfing pattern to target the triangle's support around 1.2200.
For a long position I will need to see a break above the previous resistance test at 1.2675. This, however, would be a reduced position as the large resistance area (all the way up to 1.2860) could still produce a reversal indicating a false breakout.
EUR/JPY TESTING THE MONTHLY TRENDFX:EURJPY
The rate has dropped down after successfull test to the 3-month-long falling trendline to test the short term rising trendline from February.
The rate has formed 2 hammer candlesticks right at the former inverse head and shoulders neckline indicating further strength and a possible move towards the previous highs at 122.90 and the 100% pattern breakout target around 124.40.
A daily close below the rising trendline and the former resistance/new support area's lows at 121.00 would invalidate my immediate bullish bias for the pair.
POLARITY CHANGE ON EUR/JPY SUGGESTS REVERSALFX:EURJPY
The rate is currently testing some interesting former support levels which should now become the new resistance -
Already confirmed polarity change area (the yellow rectangle) 120.20 - 120.55
4-month long broken rising trendline support
The lower parallel of the broken falling channel (black dotted line)
I am looking for a strong rejection lower to enter new short positions and only a break above 121.10 would invalidate my immediate bearish bias on the pair.
AUD/NZD THREATENING THE DOWNTRENDFX:AUDNZD
The rate has finally climbed up to test the massive inverse head and shoulders pattern neckline at 1.0770.
At the moment I expect bears to push the price lower to confirm the neckline resistance, however, I will be looking for an upside break and daily close above to enter a smaller long position and wait for a retest if the old resistance becomes the new support to scale in a full position
Only a break below 1.0600 would invalidate my immediate bullish bias on the pair.
LOOKING FOR POLARITY CHANGE TO SHORT THE GBP/AUDFX:GBPAUD
The rate has broken down from a short term symmetrical triangle formation.
I am now looking for a pullback towards the former support in the 1.6400-1.6430 area which should now become resistance and will enter a new short position if we see strong rejection there.
The immediate target should be the 3-month-long rising trendline support around 1.6200.
A break back above the former triangle floor would invalidate my immediate bearish bias on the pair.
Possible bull flag on GoldOANDA:XAUUSD
The price broke through the major psychological resistance at 1,200, which was also a major polarity change as the old support/new resistance, and right after the break it has been stalling just above this level forming something of a double top.
I am looking at this as a bull flag at the moment as long as we are trading above the rising trendline from last December. I will be entering a smaller long position if we get a strong rejection higher and will scale in once we’ve broken the current highs at 1,220 and target 1,250.
I will also consider taking a short position if we get a close below 1,200 as it would trigger a double top scenario for a possible move towards 1,150.
AUD/USD - OLD SUPPORT/NEW RESISTANCE AGAINFX:AUDUSD
Similarly as NZD/USD the aussie is testing a major resistance - the old former falling channel support as the new resistance which has proven to hold the rate since the start of 2015.
At the moment I am looking at this as a symmetrical triangle formation and the next move will depend on how the rate reacts to the current levels.
For a new long position I will first need to see a daily close above 0.7750 for a potential move towards the long term falling trendline around 0.9000.
I will also be looking for a shorter term reversal pattern (double top or head and shoulders patter) at the current levels for a new short position and a potential move towards the current uptrend around 0.7200.
AUD/USD - TESTING THE 3-MONTH FALLING TRENDLINEFX:AUDUSD
AUD/USD DAILY
The rate broke the gap resistance yesterday and is now testing the 3-month falling trendline and former support level at 0.7330.
It came within 10 pips of stop loss, but I am still holding the positions and will be looking to scale in the trade.
My bias is still lower, however I am will be waiting for today's NFP figures before entering any new short positions.
A break above the trendline and yesterday's high at 0.7356 would invalidate my immediate bearish bias, but only to wait for a deeper pullback towards the broken channel around 0.7500 to sell from better prices.
USD/CAD BREAK AND RETESTFX:USDCAD
The rate has broken the 2016 falling trendline and is now testing it as the new support. As it has formed a hammer at the former resistance and we are still trading within the rising channel I am more bullish here as long as we are trading above the former trendline.
The immediate attention should be turned to the 1.3575 level as the rate seems to have found a strong resistance there. A break back below the trendline would invalidate my immediate bullish bias, however, only a break below 1.3100 would turn me bearish on the pair.
We also have to monitor the Oil prices which has just broken the major 51.50 level and continued strength there may build a momentum for the loonie, dragging the USD/CAD down.
AUD/USD - Old support - new resistanceFX:AUDUSD
The rate is currently pulling back higher to test the former support new resistance zone at 0.7280-0.7300 which is also a falling breakaway gap resistance from December.
I am looking for a short entry, preferably somewhere around the falling trendline resistance (black) from November.
Take a look at my video about weekly set-ups here
NZD/USD TESTING THE BROKEN CHANNEL SUPPORT AS THE NEW RESISTANCEFX:NZDUSD
The rate is currently testing the former broken falling channel support as the new resistance. I am looking for a strong rejection lower to enter new short position on the larger head and shoulders pattern trade idea .
I would like to see a bit deeper retracement higher for the rate to test the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern around 0.6960 or even the former broken rising channel support as the new resistance around 0.7050, however, as mentioned before - a bounce lower from the former channel support could work as an entry for a smaller short position.
2017 predictions on Crosses - GBP/NZDFX:GBPNZD
This one is has been in a free fall ever since the Brexit vote. It has broken every possible support and is trading at all time lows.
For the next year I really don’t see anything good for pound so I am only looking for a downside continuation, the only question is where to sell...
One possibility is the former channel support as the new resistance which has served as such plenty of of times these past 7 years. So if the test coincides with with a test of falling trendline (green) around 1.8300-1.8400, I would say it’s probably the best entry we can get 2017.
I would of course prefer a deeper retracement. A break of the trendline to test the former rising trendline (red) as the new resistance and then try to short the pair around the psychological 2.0000 level, but as I said, at least at the moment, I really don’t see it happening in 2017.
As far as the targets go - when you are creating new all time lows the best strategy is to simply use a trailing stop and ride it as long as you can, cause you'll never know how far can it actually go. I mean - it can drop to 1.5000 maybe 1.2500, but just as well it can start some kind of prolonged consolidation period at these lows right here and never really slip below that 1.6700 level.
Just look at the EUR/USD for the past two years. Even when the fundamental differences between the two currencies grew exponentially, it was just sitting there in the consolidation mode, ranging between the support and resistance.
So yeah! This could be a great opportunity, but its important to keep your expectations in check.
For full 2017 predictions on crosses click here