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SPX in monthly (log)Hello community, A quick review of the month on the SPX index. A red candle for this month of October. I have indicated in orange the simple 12-period average (monthly) The price is in the upper part of the channel, I don't see anything alarming on the chart. The trend is still bullish, I prefer to invest my money in the American market, than on the old continent which is very sick! Whether it is Harris against Trump, the new president will have a country in working order to face the future. I have confidence in the USA. Make your opinion, before placing an order. ► Thank you for boosting, commenting, subscribing!
SP:SPXLong
by DL_INVEST
Liberty Media Corp | LSXMA | Long at $21.00Liberty Media Corp NASDAQ:LSXMA may have just double bottomed near $20. If so, it could mark the beginnings of a turnaround in price (especially during this political season). However, I am staying cautious. Warren Buffet was diving into this name a little too early for my taste, but now it is in a personal buy zone if it can stay above the $20 mark in the near-term. Target #1 = $25.00 Target #2 = $30.00 Target #3 = $43.00 (long-term view...)
LLong
by NicksAnalysis
GOLD / Key Levels and Political ImpactGold Price Analysis (4-Hour Candle Timeframe) Based on the provided chart: 1. Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: $2,420 - Next Resistance: $2,439 - Key Resistance: $2,450 2. Support Levels: - Immediate Support: $2,397 - Next Support: $2,387 3. Current Price Action: - The price is currently around $2,410, testing the pivot line at $2,420. - There is a potential bullish scenario if the price breaks above $2,420, aiming towards $2,439 and possibly $2,450. - A bearish scenario could unfold if the price fails to hold above $2,410, leading to a potential drop towards $2,397 and further down to $2,387. 4. Market Sentiment: - The chart indicates a consolidation phase with key support and resistance zones that could determine the next direction. - The recent bullish move suggests that traders might anticipate positive momentum, but caution is advised around resistance levels. Impact of Political Events on Financial Markets The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump is likely to impact financial markets in several ways: 1. US Dollar (USD): - Short-term Strength: The US Dollar is likely to see short-term strength as investors seek safety amidst political uncertainty. - Investors typically flock to the USD during times of political turmoil due to its status as a global reserve currency. 2. Gold: - Price Surge: Gold prices may surge due to increased demand for safe-haven assets. - Political instability often drives investors to seek refuge in gold, which is considered a stable store of value during uncertain times. Summary Given the current technical levels on the gold chart and the potential political impact: Bullish Scenario: If gold breaks above $2,420, we could see a rally towards $2,439 and possibly $2,450. Bearish Scenario: Failure to maintain above $2,410 could lead to a drop towards $2,397 and further down to $2,387. Political Impact: The attempted assassination of former President Trump is expected to cause a surge in gold prices and short-term strength in the USD as investors seek safe-haven assets. PREVIOUS IDEA:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
EURUSD: Lower time frame act needed.Hello traders, Since it's Friday and regarding instability in the middle east that could be spread to the world, we decide to set a mid-term trade! Fundamentally EURUSD is going to be bullish: There are no basic data releases during the American session, so all attention will be on the speeches of FOMC members Patrick T. Harker and Loretta Mester. Given that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear yesterday that no one expects to hike rates suddenly, it is unlikely that we will hear anything new from them this week that they haven't already indicated. So EURUSD might be bullish in next days, the only setback is weekly R1 in the week of trend changing, if we are really in a trend-changing-week, R1 and S1 could be stronger than in a trending week! Long-term technically: EURUSD has formed new HH and HL To do: Wait for liquidity hunt! If the 1.0549 has been touched, wait for bullish CHOCH or BMS, then put your Entry point around the bullish OB+! SL is better to be around 1.0505 ( may be some pipets lower) TP could be below the 1.0600 You better close most of your position before weekend! Best regards, @AliSignals
Long
by AliSignals
BUD - BEARISH CONTUNUATIONAnheuser - Busch Inbev started reverse capitalization of their last marketing adventure, and the controversial directions taken by the head of marketing caused a single red day to erase nearly $4 billion market cap. Unfortunately for BUD that was not just a single-day event, the decline is still going down on a steep angle. The vacation season in the US already kicked off to rock a possibly warmer-than-usual summer and many drinking venues are done choosing the seasonal promotions and POS arrangements. This is all happening at the wrong time, during the wrong time for BUD. What they say about "the bottom of every bottle" is very valid for Bud Light and Budweiser beers. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:BUDShort
by legacyFXofficial
Apple PeakI used my spread graph formula to analyze Apple's price. Historic prices from as early 1988 to today were considered. Apple recently overtook UK's whole stock market cap. As one of the most important companies in the U.S. (more like in the world) its sole stock price may be a good indicator of the economy's health and world demand. The graph presented is bearish technically. Fundamentally, I believe the upcoming recession will be ruthless for stocks. Apple in particular, potentially losing more market value in relation to U.S. equities. My position arises from America's recent political and economic instability, further projected problems - The changing of world order would see specifically U.S.'s core stocks lose value as quickly as they were gained through debt.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Sanzhar_m
BTC = GOLD/DXYHi, DXY (Dollar Strength Index) / GOLD compares USD's performance against the number 1 most correlated asset with BTC --> Gold . DXY is negatively correlated with BTC . The idea is when DXY/GOLD is bullish - USD rises , GOLD falls or both ; which is bearish for BTC . When DXY/GOLD is bearish - USD falls , GOLD rises , or both ; which is bullish for BTC . This theory is in line with both assets' historic correlation with Bitcoin . Since DXY/GOLD's bearish breakout attempt out of the yellow support line on the 1st of April , BTC had a strong bullish sentiment . Nevertheless, since May 16th DXY/GOLD failed to retest to the downside and has returned above the yellow support. Moreover, it rapidly spiked up to its crucial downward-sloping yellow resistance line, as BTC dropped in line with the theory. My personal outlook in the short term is bullish for the spread graph and therefore bearish for BTC . 3 main reasons why: Before full FOREX stability, I expect major economies to be politically focused on their currency strengthening , one side prioritizing de-dollarisation and the other re-dollarisation . Inflationary demand shock is unlikely to hit the safe heaven markets (particularly gold ) any harder than it already did. Historically years/months which are close to the start of heavy recessions have often been bullish , making recent equity and crypto gains hopeless . Both graphs zoomed out: BTC up close: Thank you for your time. Please do share your opinion, I would love to improve this theory further.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Sanzhar_m
Oil to be $100+ - How midterm results will affect OilHello everyone, I've been looking at #USOIL for a while now and I want to share my setup with you. A quick look at the fundamentals of Oil market along with a beautiful chart for oil tells me there is no stopping oil in the short term. Some reasons for bullish Oil: - Potential legislation to tax Oil giants floated by Biden in the closing days of midterm - Dem victory means less incentive to pump oil, increasing risk of new Oil investment (due to potential Climate Legislation) which decreases the supply - Strategic oil reserve at all time low: Biden will stop releasing strategic oil (to lower gas prices) as the midterms are finished - Russian oil is no where to be seen on the western market - Canada unable to supply more oil as we go into winter - Iran nuclear deal is dead: Indian and Chinese demand will fall on the Saudis - MBS not increasing the Oil supply as Dems had good midterm election And so many more. Oil fundamentals are very bullish. I'm expecting a return to 2022 high of $120 this winter which is not unexpected. Take a look at my previous Oil setup: Let me know what you think!
FX:USOILLong
by soheilsdgh
1
I'll risk less than normal on the USDCADDear colleagues, due to the continuation of the Iranian revolution against the Islamic regime and the ongoing violence of the oppressors of the ruling government of Iran, the possibility of insecurity in the Middle East region and oil export becoming extremely difficult is not zero. These conditions can increase the price of oil and the Canadian dollar. Of course, these events will have an impact in the long term, but for short-term analysis, it will also have an impact due to the fear of long-term actors. My first short limit order will be around 1.3666
Short
by AliSignals
GBP may have 'Truss' issues, but it can still move higherThe British pound suffered a flash crash yesterday as Asian traders reacted to the UK’s mini budget, which many suspect will exacerbate inflation and increase debt. Some are already calling for a vote of no confidence for PM Truss. GBP/USD hit a record low before rebounding over 5% and GBP/JPY saw levels of volatility not seen since Brexit. And these levels of volatility did not go unnoticed by the BOE, who vowed they "will not hesitate to act" and raise rates to defend the pound if required. At one point yesterday money markets were pricing in a 200bp hike by November. And this has allowed GBP/USD to find some stability and shows the potential for another leg higher. The 1-hour chart shows that prices pulled back to a 50% retracement level and the monthly S1 pivot point, just above 1.0600. Momentum is now turning higher in the Asian session and we suspect is is part of an ABC correction against yesterday's selloff. • The initial target is around 1.0863 (38.2% Fib projection) • Perhaps it can rise to 1.1000 is the BOE keep up their hawkish rhetoric
Long
by CityIndex
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand. Demand contraction The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones. Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation. Political leverage Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability. Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome. Technical discussion The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market. S&P500 NASDAQ100 In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull. Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to: Downside Resistance 370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels 326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low 270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun Upside Resistance 433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak 455-465: 250 days moving average level 501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern) Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
NASDAQ:SOXXShort
by geoffreyip523
Outlook for the Year and the Years to ComeTheoretically, the price of oil should keep going higher as the finite resource is being vehemently overused. Yet, somewhat paradoxically, the advent of alternative energy could produce the opposite effect. Between those two dynamics lie the supply-and-demand pump of the oil states, tweaking the price higher and lower as it fits the pockets of the developed world. The chart shows that oil rose from the ashes from 2016, which coincided ever since with the rise of the markets to the point of hyperinflation last year. Now as the economy is falling down, oil took an adverse course, partly due to the war in Ukraine, but largely due to the status of inflation. Politically and economically, the outcome doesn't seem to change soon. Mathematically, this is also confirmed. The orange line in the chart shows the bisecting trend line which was crossed decisively this year, marking it more likely that prices would stay on the higher levels for some years to come. Regarding Fibonacci levels, the higher point for this year seems to be around 140, to be surrounded by a relative ease in pricing, provided that nothing substantial happens at the macro political level.
O
by MontyMacht
This idea is based on nothing, but it needs no regulationINVESTMENT CONTEXT Joe Biden said Finland and Sweden would enjoy the “full, total, complete backing of the U.S.” as they apply to join NATO Ukraine ruled out ever conceding territory to Russia as part of a ceasefire deal. Andrzej Duda, Poland's President, commented that only Ukraine's parliament should decide the nation's future U.S. stock market indexes recorded their seventh straight week of losses, while earnings from the country's largest retailers disappointed on consumer taste rotation squeezing margins Christine Lagarde said the European Central Bank was on on track to lift its main policy rate back to zero by the end of September. During the weekend Lagarde remarked that cryptocurrencies are "based on nothing" and should be regulated PROFZERO'S TAKE ProfZero welcomes the positive stance that permeated the blockchain space during the weekend, bringing BTC above USD 30.5k at the time of writing, and lifting all Layer-1 coins (with the exception of XRP) even after May 20 trades into deep positive territory. ProfZero already praised the possibly divergent trade that could be opening between the blockchain space and Wall Street - yet it would be reckless to rule out the risks inherently linked to taking positions in the same box-shaped formation already seen in weeks 2-3 of April. The bottom may not be there yet - and ProfZero definitely won't like to be the one finding out Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin joined JPMorgan Chase quant Marko Kolanovic asserting that asset prices now have fully priced a recession - but a downturn is still far from concretely materializing. ProfZero agrees that the selloff has indeed wiped value even where fundamentals were solid (think of high-quality tech like Apple, AAPL and Microsoft, MSFT, or the very same Amazon, AMZN); yet the absence of near-term catalysts to rev up markets is the biggest missing element for a rebound in the weeks and months to come The ECB indicating a quicker-than-expected exit from negative interest rates territory (Q3 instead of Q4) is in fact one of those catalysts ProfZero thinks have not been fully priced by markets as of yet - without evening mentioning the continent's ailing growth As world leaders meet in Davos after a two-year pandemic break, key on the agenda is de-globalization and new "fault lines" in geopolitcs. Speaking of which - whose fault, actually?
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Recession? What does it mean for the Markets? Bitcoin?Recessions are serious. They happen years apart from one another. The last one started in 2008 and the effects are still here in the form of Quantitative Easing by The Fed. The QE stopped in 2014, but then had to restart in 2020 due to Covid 19. QE is used as a last-ditch option because with super low interest rates the tools they normally use don't work. The risk of QE is inflation. Inflation is now here. Inflation in housing costs and food and now fuel are a massive burden on the general population. They reduce leisure and luxury spending as a result. All this is known. We have a perfect storm on the horizon, and the retail market is like a rabbit in the headlights. The thing is, recessions aren't that hard to see coming, the difficult part is making money out of it. Some people have noted that the stock market usually rises as the economic recession starts. This catches out a lot of smart people who start wondering WTF is going on. After all, the signs are there plain to see, why on EARTH are markets still rising? Here's why.... Stocks are driven by profits. Profits are high right now because prices are exploding. Oil companies, power companies, food retailers, landlords etc are all ABSOLUTELY RAKING IT IN. Without getting too political, you have an appalling situation in the West where the current generation of 20-30s are still living at home with the Mum and Dad, unable to afford accommodation as wage inflation is MILES behind. The gig economy is helping to drive this trend. Corporates NEED low wages to make their business models work, and it's a race to the bottom, literally. As a result of this bias for cash to flow out of personal wealth into the hands of corporations, who report bumper profits as a result, markets go up. It all looks wonderful, but company profits are a lagging indicator. When all the plates stop spinning at the same time, then the company profits fall off a cliff and you get your market correction. I would anticipate that there will be one more scare driving SPX lower (3930?) and the USD higher. This will see off the retail bulls, ready for the rally. The rally will last 6 months or so and get to 5000-5500, then we get the drop. I think it will be a large drop, to around 2000 in SPX. There are also some technical reasons for thinking this, which are to do with Forex markets, but I'll leave those out for brevity's sake. In a recession, no one will have money to throw into Bitcoin / crypto, so expect a big drop there too. IF YOU GET THE IDEA ALREADY, FEEL FREE TO STOP READING HERE.... The general population are crippled financially, but it's big business that influences governments, not the people. As a result Western governments, particularly in the US but true also in the UK where I live, are just muddling through, hoping it will be OK. A lot of senators and members of parliament around the western world live live so far from reality that they don't see or perhaps don't believe that real hardship for many is just around the corner. For example, with gasoline prices rising fast, the UK chancellor took 5p per litre off the fuel tax. Gas has gone up 50p a litre in the last few months here, so it's clear that he doesn't get it or just won't do anything about it. Heating costs are set to double in 6 months (this is not a forecast but is already known), and the solution is a £200 loan from the government that you pay back through your bills for years. Average bill set to rise to £2000 per year. Here's a quote: "The energy bill reduction is not a loan. There will be no interest due, no debt attached, and it will not affect your credit rating. It is a grant now with a levy on future bill payers." Who are the future bill payers? Well unless you live in a tent, that's you! My point is simple. The cost of living issue isn't being taken seriously. I have seen the stories about staff walkouts in the US, with minimum wage workers deciding to stop working themselves to the bone for low pay. Also, the efforts to unionise places like Starbucks and Amazon. These are nascent socialist events rather than nationwide movements thus far, but the recession has barely started. I would expect high growth in this area, as people's savings run dry trying to keep afloat in a low-wage high-cost environment. Governments are sleepwalking to disaster. It doesn't matter who is in power in the US or anywhere else, most political parties bow to business interests by default. This is true in most of the developed world. It's a fact of life. ENOUGH POLITICS. #recession #bitcoin #btc
SP:SPXShort
by Paul_Varcoe
22
$DWAC - Trump Social Media is DoomedUPDATE 3/5/2022: DAILY DRAGONFLY DOJI The hits keep on coming for Donald Trump's signature social media application "Truth Social". According to The Daily Beast , "In recent weeks, sources have heard the former president on the phone swearing gratuitously and asking things like, “What the fuck is going on” with Truth Social. He’s repeatedly groused about the negative press and the less-than-stellar optics of the rollout, these sources said. And he’s demanded to know why more people aren’t using it—why the app isn’t swiftly dominating the competition." Dan Primack of Axios wrote a piece a few days back, "Trump's Truth Social bomb" . This rollout has been a disaster. Most people are still on the waiting list to join. Trump has barely posted. The app is full of bugs. It's stopped to 37th on the Apple Store as of yesterday. Primack wrote, "Trump hasn't posted a single time since the launch, despite an international crisis that has captivated the country. Instead, he's given his comments to radio and TV hosts — including one this morning with Dominion conspiracy theorist Maria Bartiromo — plus via his CPAC speech". Back to the Daily Beast article released earlier today. There have been some indications through actual concrete analysis that the application is an overall failure. "But if the preliminary traffic numbers are of any indication, the former president and current wannabe social-media mogul has a point. The Daily Beast reviewed analyses of visits to Truth Social’s performed by SimilarWeb, which tracks website traffic from public and private sources. The company’s figures for the MAGA social network—while only an estimate based on incomplete data—are nonetheless anemic. Trump’s own social media platform is doing either worse or the same as other MAGA social sites like Gab—another pro-Trump competitor website that’s especially beloved by, well, Nazis—and Gettr, a platform fronted by one of Trump’s former top political aides, Jason Miller. SimilarWeb’s estimates show a sharp spike of around 2 million daily visits to the site when it first debuted, before traffic dipped to an average of approximately 300,000 visits each day, putting the site on par with Gettr. Meanwhile, the far-right Gab has averaged around 650,000 daily average visits in the same time period. As of Friday, Truth Social was the 72nd most popular free app in Apple’s AppStore, a far cry from Facebook (5th) and his formerly beloved Twitter (22), both of which booted the ex-president after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. The relatively light traffic could be explained in part by Truth Social’s waitlist—MAGA fans who want to join the platform have now racked up a million-strong backlog of users looking to join during the app’s soft launch. The app is also only available on Apple devices, denying access to owners of Android phones. The extreme-right Gab, however, has managed to rack up twice the web traffic as Truth Social, despite its mobile apps being banned from both Apple and Google’s app stores." This is all adding up to disaster here for the Trump Media SPAC. What is the plan here? According to Seeking Alpha , "At a current market cap of over $15 billion as a pre-revenue company". They go on to add, "Thirty days post-merger, this total is expected to increase to over 170 million shares, excluding warrants." This wasn't the only piece of bad coverage the new app received since my last update. Politico's Ruby Cramer penned an article titled, "The Emptiness Inside Donald Trump’s New Social Media Platform". "The site promises a safe space for “free expression,” encouraging of “all viewpoints,” according to the welcome email, “as we do not discriminate against political ideology.” But inside the app, digital tumbleweeds blew through my feed. The site is a bit slow, and a bit empty. Its stalled roll-out, led by Devin Nunes, the Trump supporter and former Republican congressman from California, has become a source of frustration and confusion in MAGA-world, according to my colleague Meridith McGraw. Republican lawmakers like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz and Kevin McCarthy already have accounts and appear to be posting similar or identical content to both Truth Social and Twitter, along with right-leaning platforms like Gettr and Parler. (Apparently, no one is quite ready to turn their backs on an actual audience yet.) But when they do finally get their welcome emails, the thousands of regular Trump fans still waiting in line, eager for their chance to search for truth, will find a Twitter knock-off with no immediately discernible improvement on the original — a vanity project that has yet to prove its utility." So we have a failed rollout with bugs, Trump barely posting, and share dilution coming to boot. I haven't even mentioned the biggest wildcard. Trump's legal woes. Last night, news broke that Trump could be facing criminal charges if the Attorney General wishes to proceed: "Jan. 6 Committee Lays Out Potential Criminal Charges Against Trump". In a court filing, the panel said there was enough evidence to suggest that the former president might have engaged in a criminal conspiracy as he fought to remain in office. So 1. Dilution 2. Sell the News with Planned Q1 Merger 3. Failed and Buggy Rollout 4. Potential Criminal Charges. 5. Data shows the app rollout is an absolute failure. This is stock is heading down back to the single digits. Short this play next week before you regret missing out. There is no legitimate bull thesis for $DWAC- no matter where your politics stand.
DShort
by jaykenneyTRT
22