Global Politics effect on energy Gas is the winning card of Russia Ukraine's global conflict in investor view.
We have seen a lot of back and force between Russia and the USA because of a pure political-military opportunity from the USA side,
What makes Ukrania is the main interface of the USA in Europe, From Russia side, they will not choose the war as the best option rather than using economic sanctions,
The second top Gas producer in the world will play with its best weapons,
Yes, Gas
The best energy commodity which the whole of Europe depends on. The prices of gas will increase in the coming weeks.
This political issue will give the energy sector some bull push so, we will see some volume inter the market these days.
We have seen the gas prices increase in the last May 2021 from 2.550 to make more than 120% in just 4 months, then we have seen the price start retrograde from 6.240 to 3.800 with making the second wave for bulls to reinter the market before the Russia Ukraine conflict.
You may see the situation is unclear for now, But make sure that if Russia got delisted from swift code that will be huge negative effects on the whole of Europe before the USA itself so, don't worry the invasion will be the last choice in this conflict between The US and Russia putting Ukrain in the front line of the US interests.
For the Investors who like to bet on wars, this is for you.
Going with direction is preferred for investment so we will take the chance as we got a tip for Gas prices.
Whether there is a war or not the gas price will continue increasing just because of the speech from each side.
Position
============
Buy entry in the 5.00-5.30 area
Buy limit at 3.00 - 3.30 area
Targeting
9.00 - 9.300 area
We expect a 78% return in 6 months to 12 months (Estimated)
Politics
GBP - The money is there, if you play your cards right. One would be forgiven for being distracted by the rigmarole that is British Politics at the moment. Is the Prime Minister on his way out? I think the writing is on the wall on this one. Nevertheless, this will reward those who seek to capitalise on the captain of the ship’s scalp being acquired by his backbenchers he helped shepherd in to office.
Looking to the nearer term, inflation is on the rise, rates need uplifting, there is a cost of living crisis — fireworks will dominate today. Looking towards the news, at the outset I expect the UK news to the upside and the US news to the downside. Asia has set the tone for the global session, and indeed those who have heard her beckon, shall undoubtedly be rewarded. Make no mistake. GBP’s attractiveness with the possibility of a rate rise due to inflation and all of its woes, coupled with a Prime Minister who will seek to stay in the driving seat for a while longer (May elex will be important) Plan B measures are set to be scrapped, and for now, the luster of the pound will endure.
Buyer beware, however, in the longer term, with the ousting of the PM, issues will again come to the foray such as brexit, the cost of living crisis and an eye watering NHS backlog.
Be smart, be careful, be profitable.
*this is my first contribution. I hope it helps. I hope I’m right. Right or wrong, I will continue to post my ideas and analysis of fundamental issues which will dominate the first two quarters of ‘22.
Conversation is welcome, discourse is key.
Thank you.
US Dollar with a view to GBPOne would be forgiven for being distracted by the rigmarole that is British Politics at the moment. Is the Prime Minister on his way out? I think the writing is on the wall on this one. Nevertheless, this will reward those who seek to capitalise on the captain of the ship’s scalp being acquired by his backbenchers he helped shepherd in to office.
Looking to the nearer term, inflation is on the rise, rates need uplifting, there is a cost of living crisis — fireworks will dominate today. Looking towards the news, at the outset I expect the UK news to the upside and the US news to the downside. Asia has set the tone for the global session, and indeed those who have heard her beckon, shall undoubtedly be rewarded. Make no mistake. GBP’s attractiveness with the possibility of a rate rise due to inflation and all of its woes, coupled with a Prime Minister who will seek to stay in the driving seat for a while longer (May elex will be important) Plan B measures are set to be scrapped, and for now, the luster of the pound will endure.
Buyer beware, however, in the longer term, with the ousting of the PM, issues will again come to the foray such as brexit, the cost of living crisis and an eye watering NHS backlog.
Be smart, be careful, be profitable.
*this is my first contribution. I hope it helps. I hope I’m right. Right or wrong, I will continue to post my ideas and analysis of fundamental issues which will dominate the first two quarters of ‘22.
Conversation is welcome, discourse is key.
Thank you.
BTCUSD - Two Forecasts.I like to take bar patterns and compare them to what has happened before, to try and see where the market is taking us. It's just a manual way of doing what machine-learning algorithms perform.
With the abysmal performance of Bitcoin lately I see one of two things:
Using traditional analysis, there's a possibility that a very large (around 4 months long) teacup pattern is forming. If so, we're just about at the bottom of it now.
More likely, using pattern matching, I see a repetition of the March thru May 2021 Bitcoin crash - albeit rescaled to a shorter timeframe and lesser peak/valley difference.
If it weren't for the terrible economy (thanks to politicians who love spending other people's money & the idiots at the Fed), we should have been pushing past $100k by now.
Hopefully, one of these two forecasts plays out.🤞 If it doesn't it could very well be the end of crypto as we know it.
The economy sucks for multiple reasons, but the main factor appears to be a deliberate crashing of the US dollar ... You see, the past 20 years or so of Congressional Spending Bills, together with the Federal Reserve have printed multi-trillions of dollars - creating money they did not have to spend. (This is a de-facto tax on US taxpayers, because it devalues the money that we all have.)
Real Money Supply: FRED:M2REAL
Federal Debt: FRED:GFDEBTN
The Biden admin is, I believe, deliberately pushing us over the edge by spending 10-20 trillion more dollars (creating them into existence via the Federal Reserve ponzi scheme). Instead of demanding a balanced budget, reigning in the out-of-control spending, selling assets and reducing debt, they instead are intent on squeezing out every last drop before they push us over the cliff .
Now, the hole they've dug is so colossal, the only way they can get us out of it is by crashing the dollar - which devalues the current debt they've created.
They regard it as "Free Money" - ie: "It's going down in flames, so we might as well spend it like crazy!", ignoring the fact that us plebs have to pay for their utter incompetence and complete disregard for US Citizens , because along with the US dollar they're also crashing our entire Savings, 401K's, IRA's, Pension Funds, etc. !!
The only things that will increase along with inflation are tangible goods. This is why there are so many corporations/entities trying to gobble up the housing market. Property is one of the few things that will increase along with hyper-inflation created by a US dollar crash.
"You'll own nothing and be happy" they tell us. Funny how politicians always come out on top. 🤬
Sigh.
Let's Go Brandon!
FRED:M2REAL
FRED:GFDEBTN
USD/TRY soars to fresh record high | Approaches 17.00 markThe Turkish lira crashed to another record low on Friday and shot to the 16.85-90 region against its American counterpart during the first half of the European session.
The strong move up over the past two days or so comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Thursday to raise the minimum wage by 50% starting next year. Erdogan also said that the government would abolish income and stamp tax on the minimum wage. This was followed by a 100 bps rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday.
Turkey's official inflation rate topped 21% in November – more than four times the target set by CBRT. The central bank, however, has not been given a free hand, instead is forced to adopt President's belief that high-interest rates cause inflation and delivered the fifth cut since September. With the latest leg down, the lira has lost over 50% of its value against the USD year to date.
Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sharp spike since the early European session could further be attributed to some technical factors on a sustained break through the 16.00 mark. That said, extremely overstretched technical indicators could hold back traders from placing fresh bets and cap the USD/TRY near the 17.00 round figure, at least for the time being.
- USD/TRY blows past another record high, surges to the 17.00 neighbourhood on Friday.
- The recent CBRT rate cuts, soaring inflation continues to weigh heavily on Turkish lira
The Turkish lira has gotten more worthless in the past few months. The currency has depreciated by about 100% this year alone as investors reflect on the irrational policies implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).
Ideally, central banks tend to tighten monetary conditions when inflation is rising. By so doing, they limit the amount of cash in circulation and pressure prices to decline.
The CBRT has gone against this after it slashed interest rates three times this year. The bank’s governor has ignorantly claimed that low-interest rates will likely bring inflation down. Recent data showed that inflation rose by 21% although an independent report placed the figure at 58%.
The USD/TRY will react to the latest CBRT decision. Analysts expect that the bank will slash interest rates by 100 basis points in this meeting. This means that there is a strong divergence between the CBRT and the Fed. In its meeting this week, the Fed hinted that it will hike interest rates three times and end QE in March.
The daily chart shows that the USD/TRY pair has been in a strong bullish trend with no end in sight for the Turkish lira crash. As a result, the pair remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the overbought level.
While the outlook for the pair is bullish, there is a likelihood that it will have a pullback if the CBRT cuts rates as investors sell the news. This could see it retest the support at about 13. In the long-term, however, the overall trend is bullish.
- SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 16.4000 - 17.0000
- Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR SELLERS AND GOVERNMENT MOVE FOR LOWERING PRICE DECISION.
- Economy Bubble is created OR is close to !!
It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
The Outcome Investors Weren't Looking For in Twitter (TL;DR)As of recent, there have been some major events occurring within the organisation ( NYSE:TWTR ). I'm sure many readers are aware of the fact that Jack Dorsey ( Former CEO) stepped down from his roll on the 29th of November. Forecasters from all over, including analysts from CitiGroup ( NYSE:C ) believed that when Mr. Dorsey stepped down, the price of Twitter would consequently increase (some predicted as far as a 15% increase). The reason for this was that, Dorsey was also managing another corporation by the name of Square ( NYSE:SQ ). As any investor, seasoned or amateur would know, you want your management to pay sufficient attention to the company you want to become a shareholder in. Unfortunately for Twitter and their shareholders, the recent events have been completely on the contrary to analysts' predictions.
So one factor that caused a price drop through this year of 12% was the Biden Administration's winning of the election and Trump being (in some eyes, 'unjustifiably') banned from Twitter. Due to there no longer being any politically related 'excitement' on the platform. Conveniently, Twitter (possibly in an attempt to rescue stock prices) had Dorsey step down but this just caused a separate price drop of around 9% making the situation look very dire. The absolute polar opposite to what analysts had predicted.
Despite the investment community's pessimistic outlook on the company and management as of right now (due to the lack of data to prove management is capable) some of the more intelligent investors have taken an entirely different approach to the situation. This considerable price drop could make the company a very, very attractive purchase. Many have purchased the stock as part of one of the 'thinner' margins of safety in their portfolio and would be willing to take the beating if the price falls further simply because they have it within a very diversified segment of their portfolio. Once again following the primitive, yet proven method of minimising losses and maximising profits through having more likely to be profitable stocks than riskier stocks.
As always opinions, news and facts are always welcome, comment away!
TL;DR: Jack Dorsey stepped down and a consequent price drop followed added with reduced user numbers after the Trump Administration. This could be a purchase now with a 'thinner' margin of safety in comparison to ordinary investments but could have great potential for profit as the price has become rather attractive. Just diversify!
Netflix and their change of apparent investment policyNASDAQ:NFLX has been notorious for having a rather conservative investment policy, being reserved in all means of their financial interactions. Whether we're referring to their accumulation of debt, acquisitions or overall spending. In recent times, their management has been making very questionable financial decisions. Their most questionable financial decision as of around 2 days ago, was their decision to place 2% of their cash holdings in black-led banks to attempt to "narrow racial wealth gap" according to Yahoo Finance. As many are aware, this is the company making a desperate attempt at appealing to the public eye considering recent events. Obviously the investment community did not appreciate this careless "flinging" of money at various corporations with limited investigation into their current financial states. For those unaware, this was the primary cause of the strong sell orientation of the stock.
In the big scheme of things, despite that considerable amount of money being used for "political correctness acts", the stock should recover in the coming months, although this has unsettled many long-term holders of the stock (reducing their faith in management in the company, especially as it is moved around). As it goes in the market, only time shall tell. Personally, I can think of more suitable alternatives to place my money into. If you're a trader who is seeking daily action, then go ahead, Netflix might be one of the stocks you want to 'play' with.
As always, any opinions or facts that I'm unaware of, are welcome anytime. Comment away!
TL;DR: Netflix's management have been making questionable investment decisions with cash holdings which has destabilized their stock.
ENS Airdrop - Ethereum's Big Experiment in Political GovernanceAs of this week, ENS (Ethereum Name Service) tokens have been airdropped to .eth domain holders. The idea was to issue tokens for governance and policies, but the odd thing is that they decided to let it have its own market.
I think the idea behind this decision is to make the connections between politics and money explicit, rather than trying to deny it or separate it. We can see in the real world that politicians lie about this stuff all the time, while their supporters just hold their heads down and pretend it's not going on. Is this system a better one than the ones we have now? We'll find out, I guess.
Evergrande vs Bitcoin, Round 2Latest update on the Evergrande fiasco. It's looking like this could be much bigger than even the alarmists have been speculating so far.
tl;dr - the US media is very poor at covering foreign news, especially when it comes to money. Be wary of what you read out there.
China is likely to let Evergrande defaut, which will stand in stark contrast to what we did over here. Expect this issue to get political, especially from the Democratic side since people like Pelosi have made their fortunes in real-estate as well.
This could potentially be a very good thing for #crypto because it will shake people's confidence in traditional assets while also providing more liquidity. If they're going to sell or not purchase a home anymore, where is it going to go? Interest rates are pathetic right now and crypto is the only thing getting people decent returns as we speak.
The Federal Reserve is maybe-sorta-kind-of-thinking about doing the right thing (which is to increase interest rates) but their response is likely going to be too little too late. I think we should probably assume that the correction is going to run its course and adapt accordingly.
More to come with this stuff but it's one of the few things worth paying attention to in finance right now.
Anticipating Debt Ceiling Deal Let's be honest, the chances of congress not figuring out this debt ceiling problem are low, we should be positioning ourselves for the higher probability event. Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor
The unwinding of frothy speculation and the start of valuation. Trend Shift Indicator saved me from the worst of today with two weird peaks and a precipitous indicator drop that seemed scary enough to make me sell prior to the worst.
Despite the very short upswing TSI is still hanging low. Volumes aren't great and the volatility is likely not over.
We are exiting the speculation phase of sentiment-is-all and moving to the phase where adoption of currencies are manipulated politically and some semblance of valuation can begin in earnest. This is good for Bitcoin but likely bad for short term speculation.
Seasonality In Commodities As The Summer of 2021 EndsAs September began last week, the markets are nervous. Stocks have seen some pretty awful seasonal price action in September and October. Crashes occurred in 1929, 1987, and 2008 in October.
Commodities are highly seasonal markets. Some commodities typically reach seasonal highs and lows during various months of the year. Futures prices ordinarily reflect seasonal factors.
Seasonality is a historical pattern, but 2021 is anything but a typical year
Grains enter the harvest season
The grilling season for meats ends
Natural gas and heating oil enter the peak season while gasoline moves towards a seasonal lull
Expect the unexpected as 2021 as seasonality takes a back seat in markets across all asset classes
Meanwhile, as we move into the fall season in 2021, the impact of the worldwide pandemic continues to grip markets. Moreover, markets reflect political and economic landscapes. Seasonality could take a backseat to political changes in 2021 that are impacting the global economy.
The natural gas and heating oil futures markets will move into their peak demand seasons over the coming months as winter approaches. The 2021 harvest will impact grain, oilseed, and other agricultural markets over the coming weeks. The Labor Day holiday marked the end of the 2021 grilling season, the peak time of the year for animal protein demand.
Seasonality can be a powerful force for prices, but in 2021, they’re much more going on that may change expectations and the path of least resistance for seasonal markets. At Bubba Trading, we follow trends. The futures markets adjust to seasonal factors in advance as they reflect prices in the future.
Seasonality is a historical pattern, but 2021 is anything but a typical year
Seasonality is logical in raw materials markets, but the fall season has been the time of the year for some of the nasty crashes in the stock market.
The October 1929 stock market implosion occurred on Black Tuesday, October 29. It began in September and ended in late October when the New York Stock Exchange collapsed. The Great Depressions began following the 1929 crash and continued through the 1930s.
While the stock market correcting in 1987 looks like a blip on the chart, the S&P 500 fell from opening in October at 321.83 to a low of 216.46 or 32.7% in only one month.
In 2008, the global financial crisis caused the S&P 500 to suffer its most significant downdrafts from September through October. As we head into the fall season, investors and traders will be highly sensitive to historical weakness in September and October and the stock market’s penchant for imploding at this time of the year.
In the world of commodities, seasonality is closely tied to weather conditions.
Grains enter the harvest season
While grain and oilseed prices have corrected lower since the 2021 highs, the futures are entering the 2021 harvest season at substantially higher prices at the same time in 2020.
As the monthly chart highlights, nearby corn futures opened in September 2020 at $3.4775 compared to the $5.34 opening price on September 1, 2021. Whole corn futures declined from the over eight-year high in May 2021 at $7.75 per bushel; they opened September at 53.6% above the previous year’s price.
The monthly CBOT wheat futures chart shows the grain that is the primary ingredient in bread opened at $5.4250 in September 2020 compared to an opening price of $7.0825 on September 1, 2021. Wheat traded to an eight-year high at nearly $7.75 per bushel in August. After correcting, the price was still 30.6% higher in September 2021 than the previous year.
The monthly soybean futures chart shows the oilseed futures opened at $9.48 in early September 2020 compared to $12.9150 at the same time in 2021. This year, soybean futures are 36.2% higher than last year.
The weather conditions, rising inflation pushing production costs higher, supply chain issues, and other factors have created a significant bull market in the grain and oilseed futures markets.
We could see more corrective action with the 2021 crop harvest over the coming weeks, but the cost of feeding the world has risen substantially from September 2020 to September 2021. While the weather in the US and the northern hemisphere had been the primary factor for grain and oilseed prices over the past months, the futures market’s attention will shift to weather in the southern hemisphere over the late fall and winter months in the US.
The grilling season for meats ends
The peak season for demand in the animal protein arena ended last weekend. It begins in late May on the Memorial Day holiday weekend and ends with the Labor Day holiday, marking the end of the summer. Grills tend to work overtime during the summer months and go back into storage sheds as the fall and winter are not ideal times for gatherings.
Typically, cattle and hog futures rally into the summer season and reach seasonal lows during the early fall.
The monthly chart shows that live cattle futures reached significant lows in October 2016 and September 2019 as seasonal demand weakness for beef weighed on prices. The April 2020 low was an outlier as the pandemic distorted cattle prices because of shutdowns at processing plants and supply chain bottlenecks. As the offseason for demand gets underway in the cattle arena, the market is experiencing an unseasonal bullish trend.
The monthly feeder cattle chart shows a similar pattern of weakness going into the fall and strength as the peak demand season approaches. Feeders are going into the offseason in a bullish trend with four consecutive months of gains.
Hog futures highlight a similar pattern to the beef market over the past years. The demand for ribs, sausages, and other pork products peaks during the summer months and declines after barbecues goes back into storage after Labor Day. Meanwhile, hog futures have corrected since June, but outbreaks of African Swine Fever in China, the world’s leading pork consumer, is underpinning prices.
Meat prices are higher at the beginning of September 2021 than at the same time in 2020. On the continuous futures contracts:
Live cattle opened on September 1, 2021, 20.5% higher than at the same time in 2020
Feeder cattle were 15.9% higher over the same period.
Lean hog futures were 65.5% higher from September 1, 2020, to September 1, 2021.
Meat and agricultural product prices that are highly susceptible to seasonal factors are heading into the fall season in 2021 at levels that are appreciably higher than last year at the same time.
Natural gas and heating oil enter the peak season while gasoline moves towards a seasonal lull
Energy prices are much higher at the beginning of September 2021 compared to the previous year. The end of summer marks the finish of the peak driving season in the US when drivers consume more gasoline and put peak mileage on their vehicles.
The chart shows that gasoline prices were 74.7% higher on a year-on-year basis on September 1, 2021. While the fuel’s price is likely to drift lower for seasonal reasons, the technical price action is bullish.
Natural gas is heading for the peak winter heating season, but the price has done nothing but make higher lows and higher highs since June 2020, when it reached a quarter of a century low at $1.432 per MMBtu.
The chart shows that natural gas futures have a substantial head start on seasonal strength as they were 67.5% higher on the opening on September 1, 2021, than the prior year.
Heating oil futures, a proxy for all distillate fuels, are seasonal but less so than gasoline as diesel and jet fuels are year-round energy commodities. As of the opening on September 1, 2021, NYMEX heating oil futures were 74.3% higher in 2021 than in early September 2020.
The shift in US energy policy that weighs on production at a time when the demand is booming has boosted the prices of energy commodities on a year-on-year basis. Rising inflationary pressures have only exacerbated the price appreciation.
Expect the unexpected as 2021 as seasonality takes a back seat in markets across all asset classes
The US dollar is the pricing benchmark for all commodities as it is the world’s reserve currency. The dollar index measures the US currency against other reserve foreign exchange instruments.
A stronger dollar tends to be bearish for commodity prices, while a falling dollar has the opposite impact.
The dollar index opened at the 92.17 level in September 2020 compared to 92.67 on September 1, 2021. The marginally stronger dollar has not weighed on the seasonal or unseasonal commodity prices, which have been in bullish trends over the past year.
Expect the unexpected over the coming weeks, and months and you will not be disappointed. Rising inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, policy shifts in the energy arena, and other factors are putting seasonality in the backseat of the commodities market over the past year. Meanwhile, those raw material markets that tend to rally during the fall and winter months could carry the bullish baton even more aggressively if the current conditions continue.
Seasonality is a critical factor for commodity markets, but 2021 is anything but an ordinary year.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
$NXST: Will Recent Broadcasting Woes Subside?Along with $SBGI, $FOX, $NWSA and $GTN companies have seen broad based weakness in view ship. Will the trend continue and lead these lower? We'll see!
A lot of liquidity below 30 created, price will likely followSo far Virgin Galactic was an abysmal investment for me. Although I bought CFDs low at about 24 and sold a lot higher, I started buying shares up there and the price dropped. Anyway, I am planning to buy some more shares between $20 and $25 if the price gets there.
Why am I planning to buy when I am already exposed to SPCE? - this company has good prospects for the future. Virgin Galactic is doing its thing more efficiently than Blue Origin. The vertical start is very inefficient and even though it gets Bezoss' New Shepard higher and into actual space, I don't think the people will care that much. As long as they can see that the planet is an oblate spheroid, they will be happy with the experience.
Space tourism might be somewhat threatened by the green activists who think that it will damage the environment too much. Activists are often just political pawns who didn't do their research, so I see how they may be drawn to the logical conclusion that space tourism is bad. But that doesn't make it true whatsoever for a number of reasons I won't be getting into on a Trading platform.
Another threat that might look to be relevant might be posed by socialists/communists on Twitter who know best how to spend someone else's money. Fortunately, they seem to be numerous on Twitter but in the real world, they are outnumbered by the people who see our future in space. Wright brothers who invented airplanes might have also faced people who would say 'Why don't you make bicycles for the needy instead? I don't think these "experts" will be able to stop technological progress.
Why do I think the price has a high probability of reaching for these lower prices? - if there is any blatantly obvious market level, both stop orders will be there! In this case, there will be stop-losses of people who hold longs and who own real shares. There could also be stop-market orders of those who think that this company is a toast (not in this case probably). Anyway, that is the only place where the institutions can open their large orders.
When they want to go long, they need someone to sell to them! It will be those who had stop-loss orders there. As much as I expect Virgin to be a prosperous company in the future and with their commercial (almost) space flights starting next year, I think we will get a good price for the last time in the coming weeks and months.
USDZAR reverses in a growing channel as news support the growthRemember that you only need three points to paint a CHANNEL. June's bottom was predictable and it is now confirmed that the price will likely continue to hit the dashed SHIFTING POINT OF CONTROL from the technical perspective. I rarely speculate on news in forex markets, but fundamentals are so strong for this pair, that I can not ignore them.
The South African Republic has practiced racist policies. The experienced white farmers are getting their land confiscated without any compensation. This, by itself, would not impact the economy, although it is unjust. The problem is that the land isn't given to black farmers. Instead, it goes to political hacks or stays under the government. Or it goes to the Chinese who grow tobacco instead of food (the Chinese are considered to be black under SAR's laws).
Something similar was tried in a neighboring Zimbabwe two decades ago. After food shortages, a new government returned the soil to experienced farmers, although they still were white.
Then, there are government favors to the companies that employ and are owned by black people. Of course, some companies went further than that and started employing politicians' families in senior positions they have no skills for. The companies need to have black partners to secure contracts. Naturally, it disqualifies many international companies from the competition.
Furthermore, you might have heard of the recent uprising. With unemployment above 30%, the people are fed up with corruption, so it is no surprise. The trigger event was putting president Jacob Zuma in jail for corruption, but he has strong support from the largest South African tribe. His supporters now say, that the anti-corruption laws come from the colonial era and are, therefore, racist.
The riots may or may not lead to heavy disruption of supply chains as major oil companies refused to supply the fuel. The cars run out of it and are blocking the road. It might or might not significantly worse the food supply issues.
I had high hopes for SAR in spite of its racial policies. Now it seems that the country can only get more radical. An economy choosing employes based on race and political family ties is unsustainable and will not be able to compete internationally .
Trading Idea - #GAZPROMIn the short term a SELL, in the long term a BUY!
SELL/SHORT
ENTRY: 5.08 EUR
TARGET: 4.35 EUR (+14%)
STOP: 5.55 EUR
1.) Medium-term resistance level at 5.20 EUR seems to be too strong for the actual company situation!
2.) This stock could be of great interest to investors looking for returns.
3.) Now it's getting political!!!! The German government's coordinator for transatlantic cooperation, Peter Beyer (CDU), has described the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as an obstacle to restarting relations with the USA. He has shown willingness to freeze construction in order to be able to resolve difficulties with the USA.
4.) Nord Stream 2 is now around 95 percent complete, according to the information. The pipeline is expected to transport 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia to Germany per year.
5.) The upward sales expectations show a return of the positive expectations of the analysts at this company.
6.) The analysts' average target price is relatively far removed from the current price, which suggests a potentially significant long-term increase in value.
And here goes craziness again!Just checked WallStreetBets and they are striking again. I want to make a few points.
• Before opening a position, it is good to have an exit strategy.
• Successful market concepts are often built upon the recognition of institutional accumulation and positioning oneself before it is over.
• Market doesn't care about one's ideology or the news (unless it is unpredicted). Is it wise and worth to wage ideological wars here?
• Ultimately, even if the message is sent, the hedge funds will get their bailout anyway, so it is impossible to defeat them like this.
Good luck to the people involved. I don't think it is meaningful, it is the people who lose money. But I agree it was hilarious to see the US Congress asking Robinhood CEO if they can just give the institutions their money back... Their understanding of markets in some cases was -- quite lacking in to put it bluntly.
I expect the market to go no further than $200 where the major candle's body is.
The Top 5 Fundamental Currency DriversThe goal of this article is to understand what really moves the markets.
1. Central Bank Decisions
These organizations manage the countries monetary system and policy.
They control the countries money supply and operate through specific mandates.
Stable inflation is a common mandate applicable to the majority of central banks.
Interest rates are a crucial tool used by them to reach their mandates.
Changes in interest rates have a tremendous impact on the Forex markets.
Rate decisions from central banks can cause lots of volatility.
They’re also great opportunities for making money.
For this reason, interest rates should be something all Forex traders monitor.
Good to start here as a beginner in fundamentals.
2. Economic News Releases
News releases like:
GDP Gross Domestic Product
CPI Consumer Price Index
Employment Data like average earnings, NFP, and unemployment Rate
could have a huge impact on interest rate decisions and traders always have expectations on these releases if it differs from it market reacts.
3. Geopolitical Events
Politicians are an important part of the market moves.
Investors seek stable economies, also tax decisions and fiscal policy decisions are drivers of the market.
4. Natural Disasters
Things like earthquakes or tsunamis can negatively affect a country’s economy.
5. Intermarket Movements
Equities Bonds and Commodities are all connected to each other so one spike in an asset class could lead to moves in the other asset classes too.
Things like risk aversion and risk appetite are a daily play on the markets because the risk is a great factor of daily currency moves.
Safe haven bids are bonds Japanese yen and Swiss franc in a market crash these assets have money inflows.
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DJI (Wall Street): Pattern in the chaos.In this chart I show a tight summary of what's been happening with the DJI (Wall Street). I apply the theory of curves. It shows weakening momentum in its north side drive.
I refer to just a handful of fundamental issues for both the bulls and the bears . In recent times various forms of 'stimulus' has kept this market afloat. Then in the last 2 weeks, hope and greed surrounding the Consolidated Appropriations Bill 2021, gave some life but volatility in the market.
This evening (2020-20-23), there is nervousness because the Bill was referred to by POTUS as "a disgrace". That is a real cause for nervousness because POTUS has snookered himself i.e. if he doesn't veto the Bill. This is a matter of law and politics but entirely relevant to market volatility. I take no sides. All I know is that there is money to be made (and lost), wherever there is volatility.
But anything is possible, they say in these markets.
It's probable that price can move up as well as it can correct down. The main job of a trader is not be to right, but to limit how wrong s/he might be with controlled affordable losses. The other nice part of the job is letting winning positions run when the market is in his/her favour.
It's so simple - but NOT easy, obviously. 😄
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Chart Illustration: Why traders lost on BABAI had a few friends that lost money investing in NYSE:BABA for their upcoming Ant IPO. The reason Alibaba stock got crushed was pretty apparent to me and I wanted to do an illustration on Tradingview so that others can have the knowledge going forward in their own investing.
USDCHF H4 - Short Trade SetupUSDCHF D1 - Carried forward from last week, big daily S/R structure here, seen the downside break, looking for the subsequent retest and to find resistance at circa 0.90400. No stacked confluences here, just a simple break and retest of daily S/R, daily candlestick confirmation would be a must. Probably be more inclined to use this pair as a comparison pair, to see if there is anything else similar which offer more confluences.
S&P 500 - Waiting for Directions + Political AnalysisBefore we begin with this analysis... This time it is suited for people who are playing the long game...
All ideas that are expressed are of my opinion and interpretation of the political situation.
So...
While the world waited anxiously to see who will become president - so did equity markets.
On the technical side:
A Triangle pattern has emerged on a daily chart in the S&P 500 index. This is considered a continuation pattern - meaning that if we go by classical analysis, we should be looking for a breakthrough to the upside. Our target would be the length of AB (just below 4000).
We do have a bearish MACD divergence playing out
On the political side:
Joe Biden is a moderate democrat and this is good for the economy.
Implementing a strategy to handle Covid-19 will insure the smooth function of the economy even without a vaccine (widespread testing + mask wearing). Since markets are forward looking this is probably taken into account.
Despite talks of the "scary" Green New Deal, such a widespread plan could provide new jobs for people in the old and dated energy sector. (Lets not forget the the SPE has been declining for a couple of years now). Under a moderate administration the employment aspect of this will likely be reviewed heavily. To keep the people happy and voting for you you have to insure their financial safety.
No sporadic tweets about tariffs means the certainty increases - Positive for markets.
Even if taxes are increased, it will be marginal and only on the filthy rich.
Fiscal stimulus to the MAX.
On the downside:
Markets might be more regulated
As long as the Republicans keep control over the Senate, a Democratic administration will have a hard time passing legislation. Right now it looks like this will be the situation, but we will know for sure only in January since we have a runoff in Georgia. This increases uncertainty in the short term horizon.
To sum up:
I retain a positive outlook in the medium/long term since the new administration will be focused on responding to the Coronavirus and supporting the economy.
However, if inflation pics up the story changes completely. Real Vision have covered this extensively - you should check them out on YouTube.
If we break lower than point B without taking out point A, The market will officially enter a downtrend on a weekly basis. This is not good. The 2008 crisis started out like this (from a Dow Theory point of view)
Feel free to share your opinion and happy trading!
Trading After The Presidential ElectionThe aftermath of the election
The presidential election is over, so it is safe to start trading again?
First of all, as of writing this, we actually don’t know yet who has won the Presidential Election.
As of this morning, Biden leads Trump in the Electoral College 264–214, and we are waiting for an update to see who won Nevada.
If Biden wins Nevada, this will give him 270 electoral votes exactly enough to win the presidency.
The Trump campaign has also filed lawsuits against the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia as the race to 270 looks to be nearing its end.
As of now, it is still a close race. We won’t have any updates until later today, as Nevada basically said yesterday:
“You know what, we’ll keep counting, but stop bothering us, we’ll let you know tomorrow around noon. Until then we will not publish any more results.”
we will see what is happening there soon.
Looking back to last week, the markets were a little bit worried about a so-called “blue wave.” This means the Democrats would control both the House of Representatives, and The Senate.
What it comes down to is, how is power being distributed? As of right now, it seems that the Senate COULD remain Republican.
However, we’re not quite sure yet. It is very close, but it doesn’t seem that we have this “blue wave” that the markets were fearing.
As for The House of Representatives, it seems that it likely to remain Democratic.
So we still don’t know for sure who will control The House, The Senate, or win the Presidency. It’s still a close race.
There’s still a lot of “would of, could of” and speculation as far as what will happen if Trump stays in office, or if Biden takes over.
How is the election affecting the markets & traders?
Yesterday morning, the day after the election, the markets were rallying big before pulling back a little bit.
The DJI was up more than 900 points as it continued to shoot up that morning, before pulling back before the close.
The S&P 500 was up 2.37% and its the same picture here, jumping up before retracing
The NASDAQ was the leader of that day towards the close. Up 4.2% and as high as 5% earlier in the day.
What is causing this?
As I mentioned, looking at the election results so far, there doesn’t seem to be a “blue wave” coming.
This means that there is a division of the powers and not everything in the hand of one party. This is what traders and the markets are looking for right now.
A division of the powers could mean fewer regulations on ‘Big Tech’. This is why yesterday, the day after the election we saw big jumps in companies AAPL , AMZN , GOOG , etc.
AMZN was up 6% near the close. AAPL was up over 5% and finished up over 4%. NFLX closed up almost 2%, FB closed up almost 8%, and GOOG and MSFT both closed up almost 6%.
This is why The NASDAQ was leading the way higher, when before it was lagging behind The S&P 500 and The DJI .
News from the election that is affecting the markets
In California, voters pushed for Prop. 22. This will allow UBER and LYFT to keep classifying their drivers as independent contractors instead of employees.
This was a big win for both companies resulting in both companies being up almost 12% and 13%.
Another thing on trader’s minds is the stimulus deal (or lack of one).
Recently, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said that a stimulus package should be passed by the end of the year.
This is what market participants were waiting for, as new cases for the Coronavirus continue to rise.
We are up to almost 95,000 new cases of Covid-19 a day, and Dr. Fauci has said that we are positioned really badly as we head into Flu season.
It’s important to keep in mind that uncertainty could creep back into the markets as the Trump Campaign is calling for lawsuits, and as new Covid-19 cases continue to rise.
Is it safe to trade after the presidential election?
The key question is, “How do we trade this?”
Before the election, I said that we should all sit on our hands. For those of you trading The Wheel Strategy, we had an opportunity, on election day, to close out a TQQQ 100 put that I sold.
This is the ONLY position that I had going into the election. I sold this put last Thursday and I was able to buy it back on election day, for a nice profit of about $250, after only being in the position for 5 days.
Now, the next morning when I saw the markets were up, I thought that after the initial excitement we would fill the gap.
After we saw that we might not have any results from the election for a few days I thought we would hover where we opened at around $133 or maybe lower.
Instead, we went higher so here’s what I did. I sold a call with a strike price of 148. I sold this call for $2.45 which means I took in another $245 in premium.
My break-even price on this trade was around $132. At one point I was down $3,000 but I just kept selling more premium according to the rules of The Wheel Strategy.
Overall I’ve realized $2,300 by selling premium. If I would have closed out the trade right then, I would have closed it with a profit, but I didn’t plan to do that just yet.
Should TQQQ keep dropping, I will be able to buy back the call that I sold against my shares.
If my shares are “called away” I would lose $200 of the premium I earned, but would still be up over $2000 on this trade.
I checked this position yesterday and it started the day up $1,400, and this is the only position I am in. For now, I am not taking making any other trades. I may start trading again later this week, but for now, I’m just going to sit on my hands.
The markets are still rather flat, trending sideways, as market participants are waiting for the final results of the election to come in.
Trading After The Presidential Election Summary
Whether you like what’s happening with the election so far, or whether you will like the final results of the election or not, as traders it is our jobs to react to this and make the best out of it by adjusting our trading strategies.
With still a lot of uncertainty looming, I recommend sitting back and waiting to take any new positions until the air clears.
There is a saying among sailors: “You can’t change the wind, but you can adjust your sails.”
