BTC DICTATORSHIP SCENARIOthe highest use case for a sovereign digital currency is dictatorship
let's see how it plays out
happy voting!
Politics
QQQ short, then long againHello traders and analysts,
Basing the QQQ upon the Nas100 - this is the fund version.
We will be seeing two areas where price will fall to over the election period.
No write is needed as our previous analysis's on SPX, DAX, FTSE cover all information.
It is earning quarter, but the political and social landscape of the US is something to consider and not over look.
Our short targets are in line with 0.382% Fibonacci & 0.5% Fibonacci highlighted by the two red lines clearly marked.
Where to look?
Monitor price when this zone is reached before long positions.
Target 1 - $250-255
Target 2 - $230-237
keep in mind, price may take longer to reach this zone so no quick profit for us is here.
Use your risk management and pay attention to your monetary value be it account size or investment fund size.
Why follow us?
Updates on our pairs as and when we can.
Swing trade out looks
10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced .
KISS - keep it simple stupid.
we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise.
If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes.
If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated.
Regardless we will continue producing analysis.
Thanks,
Team Lupa
Descent in the SPX (October 26th-November 9th 2020)S&P 500 Index (SPX) (October 26th through November 9th 2020)
Low: 3362.9 points
High: 3455 points
How E-mini futures market started off yesterday:
My previous SPX forecast:
My adjustments today are more to correct the trajectory and duration I was originally expecting. Will be interesting to see how this spooky week turns out. Time for temporary bloodbath just before halloween? ;)
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
Is Tesla Trying for a Triangle Breakout?Tesla soared in August and consolidated in September. Now it may be poised for a breakout.
As we highlighted on September 25 , TSLA was forming a triangle with potential for a move toward $440. That panned out last week and the stock has gone nowhere since.
But Elon Musk’s electric car maker could be doing some important work along the way.
First, TSLA is trying to break the downward trendline marking the top of its triangle. It’s been holding its ground above that line for the last week. Is old resistance becoming new support?
Second, TSLA has managed to stabilize above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). At other times lately, it knifed below that line.
Third, that calmer range of movement has squeezed its Bollinger Band Width to the narrowest in over a month.
The backdrop may remain positive for TSLA in other ways. Politically, EVs are favored going into the election. (Other big techs could face modest antitrust risk following Tuesday's Congressional report.) Fundamentally, TSLA’s business remains in a strong spot with exposure to Chinese growth and signs of deliveries still surprising to the upside.
Traders may want to watch the current tight range and potential triangle breakout. Could TSLA melt higher into its next quarterly results above two weeks from now? (The official release date hasn’t been announced yet.)
TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Russell 2000 Index, Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For Sep 28, 2020Technical Analysis and Outlook
As noted before, the small-cap Russell 2000 index is an excellent overall market indicator; The index shows us resuming it the Main/Intermediary uptrends since Sep 24. A buying zone is identified at Mean Sup $1,502 , with the exit at Mean Res $1,553 and Mean Res $1,591, and completed the Inner Index Rally marked at $1,602 respectively, based on one's money management scheme. To continue the rest of the market story, see the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For June 29, 2020" page at the usual site.
DEVALUED DOLLAR & BIDEN WIN?: Watch GOLD & Bitcoin The "collective consciousness" as some have called it in the past, the market is an almost perfect diagnostic tool for determining where we are and where we're going. Millions of minds in their buying, selling, and even political voting decisions determine what we value as a society collective. We can see this everyday on charts — the price of stocks, bonds, commodities, forex etc. all reflect what we value. The needs and wants of society tend to repeat, and charts can illustrate these with the patterns they create. Today we see a pattern that hasn't repeated since 2002.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY) broke its uptrend it had been making since March 2008. It dipped below the trend line in July and has attempted to recover back above $95, but has failed to and will fail to recover (see DXY September 2002). Looking at the Dollar in 2002, the same pattern had occurred. The dollar broke its uptrend in June and recovered only back to the underside of the trend line. On October 28th 2002, the DXY broke down and started a six year downtrend. GOLD as a stable store of value started its uptrend on the very same day, the 28th of October 2002 and has climbed from $320 to $1900. This is no doubt attributed to the large amounts of currency printing by the Federal Reserve over the last 20 years. In these 20 years we have experienced 3 major economic crises: the Internet Bubble, the Great Recession, and now the global Covid-19 pandemic. In all of them, printing money has been the solution.
Today a month away from an important presidential election the DXY is a month away from resuming a downtrend, GOLD a month away from resuming an uptrend, and Bitcoin a month away from starting a new bull run. The policy of printing money and devaluing our dollar has been the standard for decades now and presidential candidate Biden hopes to continue that legacy. All eyes will be on this election in November and it will greatly influence the movement of hard currencies and stable stores of value. At this critical economic pivot point it would be prudent of anyone to hold cash, wait, and continue to watch Biden, Gold, & Bitcoin.
Dollar CAD - Forecasting a Treacherous Wind: a Coup in WaitingThe death of socialist United States Supreme Court Justice Bader-Ginsburg is a wildcard thrown into the mix during these difficult times. The reality is, President Donald Trump and the people working towards the elimination of the Chinese Communist Party will move to install an upright Supreme Court Justice in advance of the November election, as much of whether a fair election can occur revolves around the US Supreme Court.
However, the socialist Democrats are betrothed to the CCP and need to do everything they can to get the Party's biggest thorn in their side out of the picture.
And therein lies the axis upon which today's events swing.
President Trump will nominate his Justice on Saturday and the Senate will vote to confirm it before the election. When they will vote is unannounced, but you can expect it will be quickly. The Senate is a Republican majority, but only at a 53-47 level. Two Republican Senators, Collins and Murkowski, who are sold out as socialists, will vote against this nominee, bringing us to a perilous 51-49. A tie break is decided by Vice President Mike Pence.
I believe at this point in history, we will see the snakes jump out of the grass with additional Republican Senators raising the Democrat's "party line", crossing the floor, causing a surprise defeat to President Trump's Supreme Court nominee from within the Republican Party.
All so that Chinese Communist Party horse Joseph Biden can be installed as President of the United States.
“The best laid schemes o' mice an' men..."
The reality is, it will effectively be a coup d'etat from within; an attempted takeover before the November election.
You will see corresponding volatility in the forex market as whales take advantage of the opportunity to hastily complete their plans. You can expect USD pairs and the Dollar Index to pump as they get short before the guillotine falls.
After the guillotine falls...
SPY:LONG TERM Speculation based on EWT and US Politics Elliot Wave Theory basically says there are 5 waves up and then a correction. The size of the correction depends on the time frame and size of the waves. The chart gives my interpretation of the price action. This is subjective and like all complex images different folks see it various ways.
IF my interpretation is correct we are at a major critical point. If the last 5 waves up (since 2009) is 55 then we are in for long term major turmoil and depression. IF this is just the first wave of 55, then after a recession we may then move again toward prosperity, and peace.
In the USA our politics are at a major critical change point. Basically will we have one party rule or continue to have a balance of power (Congress, Executive Branch, and Judges.) ?? Will we continue to have peaceful transfer of power where the losing Party concedes a loss and just works to win the next one? Socialistic ideas and people have now basically taken over the public education system, many of the judges, many Churches, and much of the Democratic Party. Anti President Trump groups have stated that if Biden doesn't win "We will burn it down". I have no reason to think they won't do it. If the Democrats would win the House , the Senate, and the Presidency then have already indicated changes they could make to basically control everything for years to come. For all of us I truly hope I'm wrong. But we are in dangerous times so be careful, be loving, and be prayerful ( if you pray).
As always process your way. And have a great week ahead.
Apple short to these levelsApple has hit the peak and now sliding down to the following zones.
The eyes - are sell targets
The eyes - are potential buy zones.
Why are we selling?
The reason is - over exposed buyers, tech stocks need to retrace.
Price is expensive and volatile - during the election and huge interest in the previous months up to September.
The election is coming closer <45 days.
The S&P500 and NAS100 are not shown here but use reference for our previous ideas to show where price has reached our over exposed markers.
Why follow us?
Updates on our pairs as and when we can.
Swing trade out looks
10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced .
KISS - keep it simple stupid.
we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise.
If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes.
Thanks,
Team Lupa
Can we get much higher? 🕺With the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching the target-box, the market jumps more than 400 index points in today's trading, while investors' hopes over the country's next coronavirus stimulus increased.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer claimed that there is a "good chance" of reaching the agreement on the bill in the Senate, asserting the Republicans may "come around" to overcome differences between the two sides on the country's fourth aid package. This aligns with our technical analysis, in which we at least expect a corrective bounce towards the area of 28430 – 28764 points. Hear the bears will have another chance to take over and push the Dow back down to new lows between 26769 – 26231 points. However, this only represents our alternative scenario, which we currently give a probability of 36%. Over 28764 points, this scenario becomes unlikely.
In summary:
After reaching the target-box, we expect the market to climb back up in both scenarios. Over 28764 points and finally 29559 points, the way towards 30500 points is paved.
If you have any questions or comments, please leave us a message below.
Stay sharp and happy trading!
POLITICAL HELP? VOLUME COULDN'T HELP! - NAS - DAILYDespite the huge volumes, we have observed forces pushing the market down. Here the technical analysis is just a confirmation of what obviously happen in the real world, no bias.
The market has responded to the volumes multiple pushes with clear candle sticks announcing that the probability to see the price going down is very high and won't stop yet.
The positive side, is that if there is any political action to save the company, then, we could see the market first trying to fill the past gape and run very quickly, thereafter, to the range that it has left at the beginning of the year, around the end of February.
For the moment, it looks like a probable worse case scenario...wind up, bankruptcy...or other.
September will be a very important month in Europe as all holidays end and political decisions might be taken in regard of the extension of restrictions or their ease.
Trump, China, Australia, Pentagon, REE's 14.000% profit: wake UPWe live in a technology driven society today, where new innovations are environmental driven. Most politicians now believe that the new economy will be 'green', with machines that run on electricity either from harvesting sun/wind/wave/dams. The oil age has peaked, probably some years back already, as smart-money has moved out of it with new investments. The shift from oil to green carries with it new needs, as for example new engines, where REE (rare earth elements) is crucial. These REE's are not as rare as one would perhaps think, but the type of ground it lies in, depth and concentration is the factors that decide if it is worth starting a mine to extract it. Today China has had an almost monopoly of this market. Now we write 2020 and the need for these REE's is only increasing day by day. Not only is the pressure on getting access to these metals due to limited supply building, but as China is being seen upon as a threat for most western countries, their allies and neighbours, there is a new urgent need to find alternative supply chains outside of China. Without going to much into the politics around international trade and how monopoly can be weaponized, it should be easy for anyone with access to daily news to see how it keeps escalating, and the stress countries like Japan, Germany, USA, Taiwan, Australia etc. are facing. COMMERCE RESOURCES in Canada, is a mine with what seems to be the one with biggest potential in any country looked upon as allied with USA,EU and AUSTRALIA. With proven drill samples showing high concentrations of REE's needed in our green shift, easily accessible and the right type of rock it's in. Commerce resources has captured the attention of the Pentagon and EU. Commerce resources has for years worked on its drilling, mapping, road plans, agreement with local Inuit tribes, researchers on mineralogy, extraction techniques, separation efficiency and profitability of the project. Now combining this work with today's political climate and the increased needs for these resources, you have what can look to be the investment of a lifetime. Using today's REE prices that are actually not historically high, the mines resources in the ground is valued to about 2.2 Billion CAD (Canadian dollars). There is 50 million share out today and it is traded at 0.3 CAD THIS MAKES THE COMPANY WAY UNDERVALUED AT ONLY 15M CAD. If one uses today's REE prices and the 50 million shares as basis, the price target is at astonishing 44 CAD. Ask yourself this: where is a good time to invest into a project like this? 0.30 CAD ? 3 CAD ? 30 CAD ? Many books has been written about what is called ONE HUNDRED BAGGERS, meaning investments that can give you 10.000% return on your investment. Here you have one served you on a silver plate.Do your own research and discover the truth in what I write. Buy now, then share this facts with the ones you love and friends. This REE money train just started rolling. Good luck to you all, stay safe and be patient.
www.commerceresources.com
www.bloomberg.com
en.wikipedia.org
Politechnical Analysis of BSE Sensex from 2004 to 2024Starting 2004 was a New Era of the Indian Political System wherein former RBI Chief and Finance Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh was elected as the Prime Minister of India.
From there the Indian markets saw a quick growth and transformation, Sensex rocketed from 4800 levels to 21,000 level in a matter of 4 yrs.
Then came the Sub Prime crisis in US which rattled the Global Market crashing stocks market by 60-70% globally.
There on the Sensex took its time to re establish growth. The Congress Govt faced huge backlash from the country on their governance, integrity and top party leaders had to face corruption allegations against them. The markets retested the previous highs of 2008 levels of before Sub-Prime Crisis, but could never breakout. The confidence was in the market was subdued for 6 years and the market just couldn't breakout.
March 2014, was the anticipation month of a new government, new hope, and the markets took that confidence to breakout from the 2008 Pre Subprime crisis highs.
April 2014 the election fever was at high, the market were turning volatile and at the same time an indecisiveness could be felt.
Then came the result month May 2014, BJP won and the markets shot itself up. There were a little blips in between due to Global Economic factors in 2016. But the next two years, saw an acceleration. The Midcaps and Small Caps were outperforming like never before. The amazing earnings of companies kept the markets soaring high.
TRADE WAR, COVID 19 and "Aatma Nirbhar"
Jan 2018, Trump had declared a Trade War on China, the trigger for Indian markets to fall was the Feb 2018 budget. From hereon the growth was subdued, Even though in 2 year the Sensex made a high of 42,000, the growth was only 4-5% over the 2 yrs. The markets kept looking quite weak as the earnings started taking a hit in most of the sectors. The valuations were still soaring and now the markets was expecting something new and big from the Modi lead BJP Govt. Even though the Finance Minister brought some corporate tax reform, which enable the markets to touch 42,000 mark. Just as the government was to bring the $5trillion Indian dream to reality, the world is hit by a deadly Coronavirus (COVID-19). This changes everything. Never ever anyone could imagine that life would come to a standstill. It crashed the markets horribly.
The Prime Minister now takes this decision and brings about a new term that will/may change the future of India. The Aatma Nirbhar Bharat (Self Reliant India). Right now what the markets are actually doing is "Retesting the Governance of Modi BJP 2014".
When I say retesting the governance, technically, the Markets may retest the entire rally from March 2014 breakout which also is a 61.8% fibonaaci retracement level from the lows of Sub Prime crisis to the highs of 2020. If the market is confident of the Modi Govts dream project of "Aatma Nirbhar Bharat" (Self Reliant India), We could see a mirror image (backwards) of 2004 to 2014 and an astonishing swing from 21,121 to 93,000 by May 2024. This rally would be called as "Aatma Nirbhar Rally".
UK and The New Cold War|Brexit|China|Trump|Brief analysis|Bloomberg: The UK does a U-Turn on China, Forced into an uneven fight.
Quote:
(Instead of opening up the UK to Chinese investment, the government is now looking at protecting critical companies takeovers. Where the country used to welcome Chinese technology—allowing Huawei to supply equipment for its 5G infrastructure at the start of the year—it’s now looking at alternative suppliers.
«As a country we’ve been complacent about the threat from China for too long» said Bob Seely, a Concervstive MP who sits on the parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee. «There’s a growing realization that the China we wanted to see is not the China that has emerged»)
The new Cold War that I’ve told you about before, is here.There were talks about the new Cold War between Russia and the West, but pretty much everyone agrees on that Russia is not a systemic threat. The "real" new Cold War is the collective West VS China. And it is surprising that it took the West so long to see the Chinese threat for what it is.
The government apparatus direction is hard to turn, but, once turned, the direction stays for a long time. If Donald Trump wins, he will not be constrained by the necessity of winning the next elections and will be able to do pretty much whatever he wants towards China. And by "He" I mean the collective powers behind Trump, not the so common these days demonic depiction of the "Orange Man- bad".
The four more years of “whatever he wants” will have an effect of sealing this foreign policy approach and then, democrat or republican in the Oval Office and the Senate, in the US, Tory or Labor in the parliament in the UK, the foreign policy direction on China will remain the same. Divestment, diversification, trade war, sanctions, etc.
Brexit:
By the way, the coronavirus and now the riots in the US and the UK have almost made the public forget about Brexit, which is far from over, as the new deal needs to be cut. The damage to the economy form the coronavirus, together with the lack of media attention, which is fixated on the virus craze like the eye of Sauron, will either allow the Tory government to cut a softer, closer deal, using the self-imposed crisis as an excuse, making the case for that is the best option for the recovery, with the Tory voters being preoccupied with the attempts of making a living, or, in contrast, emboldened by the fact that one can now blame all the economic and social damage on covid-19, the Tories will go for the hardest deal possible, pleasing its core voting base without much of the meaningful opposition form the left.
To be clear: I do believe, that the UK can be better off outside the UK economically in the long run, should the country make the right choices after the exit, yet the short term economic effect of the hard Brexit will be negative, most likely. A fact that which would have tied the hands of the government in the normal times, but now, paradoxically, when things are at their worst, it might be easier for them to go for the hard deal, for no one will be able to estimate the "damage" done. All fingers will be pointed at the coronavirus. And the public is so exhausted by the covid lockdown, that Brexit is unlikely to re-captivate its imagination again.
This is the current state of affairs:
The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 and has now entered an 11-month transition period.During this period the UK effectively remains in the EU's customs union and single market and continues to obey EU rules.However, it is no longer part of the political institutions. So, for example, there are no longer any British MEPs in the European Parliament.The transition period deadline is 30.06.2020. The end of the current transition period is 01.01.2021.
Will the UK get an extension, under the corona excuse, or will the EU use the moment to push the weakened UK into signing whatever deal the EU offers, we will see very soon.
The extension seems inevitable to me, but, in case it is denied, or not asked for, it might actually push the pound down. So if there is one, there is nothing to trade, but if there isn’t, then it is reasonable to expect a weaker pound.
Guys, like comment and subscribe!
Thank you!
The World is on Fire but Markets are RetracingFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on an opinion based basis. That being said, lots of geopolitical events have been dramatically changing markets. First you have Covid19, than the talks of trade wars going on, and now you have chaos on the streets, peaceful and nice protests on other streets. Our geopolitical climate seems like a mess, but it is just another day in 2020. Lots of people in the financial world will get really emotional and this is why you see days where everything is immediately shortened, and days where there is continued growth. Overall though, everything seems to be retracing and the market in general seems to be heading towards a positive pathway for recovery.
VIRUS was TREND ANOMALYI made this chart at the end of 2019, It has played out correctly....SHORT OF A VIRUS HAPPENING...
After the Election in the USA, we are likely to see the world change.
Odd are in the favor of FREEDOM...we'll see...
END OF DECEMBER 2020... BTC LONG TERM TRENDLINE will break ABOVE the JUNE 2019 recent HIGH...
AFTER THAT... WE SHOULD BREAK THROUGH 20K LIKE BREAKING THROUGH PUDDING.
EASY HYPERBOLIC JUMP TO 170K-200K!!!!!
THIS WILL CHANGE THE WORLD FOREVER.
And all the CRYPTO PROJECTS that are SECRETLY BEING CREATED RIGHT NOW...
Will MAGICALLY APPEAR... TO SELL YOU THEIR COINS AT HIGH TICKET PRICES...
Obvious STRATEGY...
Expect BIG CREDIT CARD COMPANIES TO ALL RELEASE THEIR CRYPTO REWARDS CARDS INSTEAD OF TRAVEL CARDS.
Dollars, Mortgages, Interest Rates, Worldwide Commerce, WILL ALL CHANGE.
hopefully we build FREEDOM, and not TYRANNY.
USE CRYPTOS FOR GOOD, not evil.
Long euro nzdNew zeeland is going lock down for 4 weeks.
The euro zone doesn’t. The nzd will fall because of the lockdown. The euro zone is still active. So long for 4 weeks or if we hit 1.99000. I will cash
Climate of uncertaintyI think it's really hard to predict what is going to happen with GBP-EUR due to the climate of uncertainty currently in the UK an the EU.
The EU is struggling to re-arrange it's finances after the UK's departure, also this budgeting turmoil alongside populism and nationalism exacerbation in some EU countries, seem have put the EU expansion plans currently at halt. Also in Europe there's been very recently change of leadership, elections, etc ... which adds more complexity to the equation.
In the UK now that Brexit has happened, the populists that run the government observe that there's a budget gap and that the country has a lot of expenses. Negotiations are taking place with other countries and ideas such as super-charged ports are being prepared for 2021. But yet the climate is of a lot of uncertainty, there's being a recently back and forward with the EU an even threats of cancelling negotiations. The government in the UK alongside trade deals, also wants to introduce a new controversial point based immigration system for the skilled vacancies and is also after a guest-worker scheme for the un-skilled vacancies. This transition will cost a lot of money to the UK but also a slow down.
Due to so much uncertainty and looking into the chart, in the short and perhaps mid term we think the GBP-EUR oscillating in a channel between 1.08 and 1.19.
If the GBP-EUR is to spike suddenly we should pay attention and triangulate with the USD or other currency, to try to determine if in fact the GBP is going up or the EUR is going down.
The EU weakness is the more likely reason for the GBP to break the channel upwards(if happens, but unlikely) in the short mid term.
This selloff is going to lastAccording to the Cashflow and CICO reports (both available free on Tradingview), today's selloff vector was larger and more dramatic than August. The daily candle is a clear sell. Several month long lower support was also broken (Oct. 2019). It appears like Scrouge McDuck and his buddies were selling at a large profit to swim in their pools of money before things get really bad. I wouldn't touch stocks until we see some incredible upward momentum. Don't rely on fake news stories, use logic.
