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HOW TO EARN IN TRADING WITHOUT WATCHING THE CHART.Explore the fascinating investment strategy known as Shannon's Demon Theory. Unlike technical analysis, this method focuses on steadily growing your assets without the hassle of market timing, price fluctuations, or complex charts. I'll simplify it step by step, making it accessible for anyone to embark on a stable investment journey. Meet Claude Shannon , the genius mathematician and computer scientist born on April 30, 1916, in the United States. Known as the father of information theory and digital technology, Shannon revolutionized the way we comprehend and transmit information. Thanks to him, we can effortlessly send messages and share digital memories with friends. One of Shannon's remarkable contributions is the Balanced Portfolio Investment Theory, which we'll explore today. Imagine a simple coin-tossing game with a 50% chance of getting heads or tails. Shannon discovered how to profit from these random outcomes, showing that you can double your investment by winning with heads and only lose half if tails appear. In simple terms, if you invest $1,000 and win, you'll get $1,000, but if you lose, you'll only lose $500. Shannon emphasized the importance of not investing all your assets to mitigate risks. In reality, when tossing a coin multiple times, you'll often encounter situations where you get multiple heads or tails in a row, deviating from the expected 50-50 probability. However, Shannon argued that if there's an investment product that ultimately converges to a 0% return, you should invest in it immediately. He claimed that by investing only half of your money each time in this game, regardless of short-term results, you can achieve tremendous long-term returns. As you can see, by balancing your cash and investment in a 50-50 ratio, your returns gradually trend upward over time, even in a game that ultimately converges to 0%. This strategy can lead to incredible returns compared to investing all your assets. Imagine following Shannon's Demon method, alternating wins and losses for ten games starting with $1,000. With a natural 50% win rate, our initial $1,000 becomes an impressive $1,800, resulting in an 80% return on investment. To optimize outcomes, it's crucial to exercise caution and avoid excessive trading, which incurs transaction fees. Frequent trading can result in returns similar to long-term value investing or worse. Instead, adopting an appropriate trading frequency like rebalancing once a week or once a month helps maintain consistent growth in assets. Following Shannon's Balanced Portfolio Investment Theory may result in profits in a bull market or losses during unfavorable market conditions. However, over an extended period, the returns will ultimately follow an upward trajectory, regardless of the starting point. What sets Shannon's theory apart is its advantage in providing easy and stable investing without the need for market predictions. As you gather more trading statistics, you'll witness the significant difference in returns between simple value investing and Shannon's theory. Since the abandonment of the gold standard, the financial market has experienced significant changes. Money has become an infinite asset, while financial products have turned finite. Consequently, financial markets have exhibited an upward bias over the long term. With an ample trading dataset, Shannon's approach proves more advantageous in financial markets than relying solely on chance. Between 1950 and 1986, Shannon achieved an average annual compound return of 28%, surpassing Warren Buffett's returns based on statistics. By rebalancing between one week and one month, he reported no negative returns during those 36 years. Consistency and compounding lead to substantial profits and accomplishments over time. We can learn two essential truths from Shannon's Demon investment method: 1. You don't need to force yourself to invest in all seed money with every trade. 2. Long-term statistics are more important than short-term statistics. These two principles are like timeless rules in the world of investment. If you lack a deep understanding of technical analysis and market timing or struggle with risk management despite having some market timing knowledge, consider applying this theory. Follow and Boost for your financial success ! Write your thoughts in the comment section.
by Wealthy_Stats
Balanced Diversification Strategy: A Smart Approach to InvestingThe Balanced Diversification Strategy: A Smart Approach to Investing 📈 Introduction 📈 Welcome, investors! Today, we're talking about a strategy that will help you navigate the stock market. It's called the Balanced Diversification Strategy. In this post, we'll explore how this approach can potentially reduce risk and provide consistent returns by spreading investments across various asset classes. So, let's get started! 📊 Understanding the Strategy 📊 The Balanced Diversification Strategy is a long-term investment approach that aims to achieve a fine balance between risk and reward. Instead of putting all your money into a single investment, it advocates diversifying your portfolio across different asset classes. Here's how it works: Asset Allocation: The first step is determining the percentage of your portfolio allocated to each asset class. This allocation should align with your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. A common approach involves distributing funds among stocks, bonds, and cash equivalents. Diversification within Asset Classes: Within each asset class, further diversification is essential. For example, in the stock portion, invest in companies from various sectors and industries. This way, you avoid relying heavily on the performance of a specific company or sector. This way, performance from just one sector does not determine the performance of your entire portfolio. Regular Rebalancing: As market conditions change, your portfolio's allocation might drift from the initial targets. To maintain the desired balance, it's crucial to regularly rebalance your holdings (every month, quarter, or year) depending on your investing timeframe. This involves selling some of the outperforming assets and buying more of the underperforming ones. Dollar-Cost Averaging: Another aspect of this strategy is dollar-cost averaging. Instead of trying to time the market, invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of market conditions. This approach helps mitigate the impact of market volatility on your investments. 🔄 Putting the Strategy into Action 🔄 Let's take a real-world example. Imagine you have $100,000 to invest, and you decide on the following asset allocation: 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% cash equivalents. Within the stock allocation, you further diversify by investing in companies from different sectors like technology, healthcare, finance, and more. Over time, the stock market performs well, and the value of your stocks grows to $70,000, while the bonds and cash remain relatively stable. Due to this growth, the stock allocation now represents 70% of your portfolio, deviating from the initial 60% target. To maintain the balance, you'll need to rebalance your portfolio. You would sell some of your stocks, bringing the stock allocation back to 60%. The proceeds from selling would then be used to increase the bond and cash allocations to match the original percentages. It is important to set a threshold at which you will rebalance: such as 5%, 10%, or just make it a habit to rebalance monthly, quarterly, or annually. 🔒 A Safer Path to Growth 🔒 The Balanced Diversification Strategy is well-suited for a wide range of investors, from those with a conservative risk profile to those more comfortable with risk. By diversifying your investments, you can avoid putting all your eggs in one basket, reducing the impact of potential losses from individual assets. ⚠️ Disclaimer ⚠️ Remember, though this strategy aims to mitigate risk, investing in the stock market always carries inherent risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It's vital to do your research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions. 📢 Conclusion 📢 In conclusion, the Balanced Diversification Strategy can be an effective way to navigate the ups and downs of the stock market. By spreading your investments across different asset classes and sectors, you can achieve a more balanced and potentially rewarding portfolio over the long term. Happy investing, and may your financial journey be filled with growth and success! 🌟📈
AMEX:SPYEducation
by MindOverMarket
My secret to being a profitable Swing Trader: The TPIA Quick Reminder! It's important to have a good list of alt coins with good fundamentals, when you want to pivot over to hold altcoins like I show here! The Trend Probability Indicator (TPI) is a powerful tool utilized in modern portfolio theory to assess whether a market is experiencing a bullish or bearish trend. By integrating multiple systems, including machine learning algorithms, the TPI provides valuable insights into market conditions and helps investors make informed decisions. The TPI integrates eight systems, including a machine learning algorithm based on a kernel regression model. It analyzes market trends and determines the overall market structure (bullish, bearish, or neutral). The TPI value ranges from -1 to +1, with -0.2 to +0.2 indicating a neutral or ranging market. Positive TPI values indicate bullishness, negative values suggest bearishness. The TPI incorporates machine learning to predict future market movements. Investors can use the TPI to evaluate trend probability and make informed portfolio decisions. By using the TPI to compare the strength of cryptocurrency pairs, investors can gain valuable insights to make strategic investment decisions and optimize their portfolio performance while managing risk effectively. It gives you these additional super-powers to scan the market: The TPI helps gauge the relative strength between two cryptocurrencies, indicating which one has a stronger bullish or bearish trend. By comparing the TPI values of different cryptocurrency pairs, investors can identify favorable trading opportunities where one crypto is likely to outperform the other. Based on the TPI analysis, investors can allocate their portfolio in a way that maximizes returns by favoring the crypto with a stronger trend while minimizing risk. Timing Entry and Exit Points: The TPI assists in determining optimal entry and exit points for trading a particular crypto pair, improving the timing of transactions and potentially enhancing profitability. By considering the TPI values of different crypto pairs, investors can make more informed decisions regarding risk management, such as adjusting position sizes or diversifying holdings. The Based Algo The Based Algo is a mean-reversion tool that uses funding, adaptive moving average lines and funding + volume to detect tops and bottoms. Let me know if you have any questions! I linked a video that explains how we allocate between BINANCE:BTCUSDT and $BINANCE:ETHUSDT. Give it a look!
Education
by IkkeOmar
10
Diversification using TradingView ToolsHow to diversify your portfolio and trade across different markets and asset classes using Tradingview's data and charts Diversifying your portfolio is one of the most important strategies for reducing risk and increasing returns in the long term. By investing in different markets and asset classes, you can benefit from the different performance cycles and correlations of each asset, and avoid putting all your eggs in one basket. However, diversifying your portfolio can also be challenging, especially if you are not familiar with the different markets and asset classes available. How do you know which assets to choose, how much to allocate to each one, and how to monitor their performance over time? This is where TradingView can help you. TradingView is a powerful platform that provides you with data and charts for thousands of assets across various markets and asset classes, such as stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, indices, futures, options, and more. You can use TradingView to research, analyze, and trade these assets with ease and convenience. In this article, we will show you how to diversify your portfolio and trade across different markets and asset classes using TradingView's data and charts. We will cover the following topics: - How to access data and charts for different markets and asset classes on TradingView - How to use TradingView's tools and features to research and analyze different assets - How to use TradingView's indicators and strategies to identify trading opportunities and signals - How to use TradingView's brokers and trading platforms to execute trades on different assets - How to use TradingView's portfolio and watchlist tools to monitor and manage your diversified portfolio By the end of this article, you will have a better understanding of how to diversify your portfolio and trade across different markets and asset classes using TradingView's data and charts. Let's get started! One of the benefits of diversifying your portfolio is that you can take advantage of the different performance cycles and correlations of different markets and asset classes. For example, stocks tend to perform well during periods of economic growth and expansion, while bonds tend to perform well during periods of economic slowdown and contraction. Similarly, commodities tend to perform well during periods of inflation and supply shocks, while cryptocurrencies tend to perform well during periods of innovation and disruption. However, to diversify your portfolio effectively, you need to have access to data and charts for different markets and asset classes. This is where TradingView can help you. TradingView is a platform that provides you with data and charts for thousands of assets across various markets and asset classes, such as stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, indices, futures, options, and more. You can use TradingView to research, analyze, and trade these assets with ease and convenience. To access data and charts for different markets and asset classes on TradingView, you can use the search bar at the top of the page. You can type in the name or symbol of the asset you want to view, or you can browse through the categories and subcategories on the left side of the page. For example, if you want to view data and charts for stocks, you can click on the "Stocks" category on the left side of the page, and then choose from the subcategories such as "US Stocks", "UK Stocks", "Canadian Stocks", etc. You can also filter by sectors, industries, market cap, dividends, earnings, etc. Once you select an asset, you will see its data and chart on the main page. You can customize the chart by changing the time frame, adding indicators, drawing tools, annotations, etc. You can also compare the performance of different assets by adding them to the same chart. For example, if you want to compare the performance of gold and bitcoin over the last year, you can add them to the same chart by typing in their symbols in the search bar (XAUUSD for gold and BTCUSD for bitcoin) and clicking on "Compare". You will see their data and charts overlaid on each other. You can also use TradingView's tools and features to research and analyze different assets. For example, you can use TradingView's screener tool to scan for assets that meet your criteria based on various fundamental and technical factors. You can also use TradingView's news feed to stay updated on the latest developments and events that affect different markets and asset classes. You can also use TradingView's social network to interact with other traders and investors who share their ideas and opinions on different assets. TradingView also provides you with indicators and strategies that can help you identify trading opportunities and signals for different assets. Indicators are mathematical calculations that are applied to the price or volume data of an asset to generate signals or patterns that indicate the direction or strength of a trend or a reversal. Strategies are sets of rules that define when to enter and exit a trade based on certain conditions or criteria. TradingView has hundreds of indicators and strategies that you can use or create your own using TradingView's Pine Script language. To use TradingView's indicators and strategies, you can click on the "Indicators" button at the top of the chart. You will see a list of categories such as "Trend", "Momentum", "Volatility", etc. You can choose from the built-in indicators or search for custom indicators created by other users or yourself. You can also click on the "Strategies" button at the top of the chart to see a list of categories such as "Long", "Short", "Scalping", etc. You can choose from the built-in strategies or search for custom strategies created by other users or yourself. Once you select an indicator or a strategy, you will see it applied to your chart. You can adjust its settings by clicking on its name at the top of the chart. You will see its parameters such as inputs, outputs, alerts, etc. You can change these parameters according to your preferences or needs. You will also see its performance report that shows its statistics such as net profit, win rate, drawdown, etc. You can use this report to evaluate its effectiveness and suitability for your trading style and goals. TradingView also allows you to execute trades on different assets using its brokers and trading platforms. Brokers are intermediaries that connect you with the markets and allow you to buy and sell assets for a fee or commission. Trading platforms are software applications that enable you to place orders, manage your positions, monitor your account balance, etc. TradingView has partnered with several brokers and trading platforms that offer access to various markets and asset classes. To start trading on TradingView, you need to connect your broker account or trading platform to your TradingView account. TradingView supports many popular brokers and platforms, such as Oanda, FXCM, Coinbase, Binance, Interactive Brokers, and more. You can find the full list of supported brokers and platforms here: www.tradingview.com To connect your broker account or platform, go to the Trading Panel at the bottom of your chart, click on the Select Broker button, and choose your broker or platform from the list. Then follow the instructions to log in and authorize TradingView to access your account. Once you have connected your broker account or platform, you can start executing trades on different assets directly from your TradingView charts. To open a trade, click on the Buy/Sell button on the Trading Panel, select the asset you want to trade, enter the quantity, price, stop loss, and take profit levels, and click on Confirm. You can also use the One-Click Trading feature to open trades with one click on the chart. To enable One-Click Trading, go to the Settings menu on the top right corner of your chart, click on Trading Settings, and check the One-Click Trading box. Then you can click on the Bid or Ask price on the chart to open a buy or sell trade respectively. To monitor and manage your open trades, you can use the Orders and Positions tabs on the Trading Panel. Here you can see your order history, current positions, profit and loss, margin level, and account balance. You can also modify or close your orders and positions by clicking on the Edit or Close buttons. You can also use the Trade Manager tool to manage your trades more efficiently. The Trade Manager tool allows you to set multiple targets and stop losses for each trade, as well as trailing stops and break-even levels. To access the Trade Manager tool, right-click on your position on the chart and select Trade Manager. To monitor and manage your diversified portfolio across different brokers and platforms, you can use TradingView's portfolio and watchlist tools. The portfolio tool allows you to see your total portfolio value, asset allocation, performance, risk metrics, and more. You can also compare your portfolio with various benchmarks and indices. To access the portfolio tool, go to www.tradingview.com The watchlist tool allows you to create custom lists of assets that you want to track and analyze. You can add any asset that is available on TradingView to your watchlist, such as stocks, forex pairs, cryptocurrencies, commodities, indices, etc. You can also sort, filter, group, and customize your watchlist columns according to your preferences. To access the watchlist tool, go to www.tradingview.com TradingView's brokers and trading platforms integration and portfolio and watchlist tools are powerful features that can help you execute trades on different assets and monitor and manage your diversified portfolio more effectively. We hope this article has given you a clear overview of how to use these features. Happy trading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JS_TechTrading
How Much Gold Does Your Portfolio Need?Economists make forecasts to make weathermen look good. Trying to forecast trends in complex systems is never easy. As with weather, financial markets are influenced by a myriad of factors which can make prediction akin to gambling. Time in the market beats timing the market so a far safer bet is building a diversified and informed portfolio. As mentioned in our previous paper , gold is a crucial addition to any well-diversified portfolio. Gold offers investors the benefits of resilience during crises, diversification, and low volatility while also being a good hedge against inflation. With crisis ever-present, from pandemics and geo-political conflict to financial instability and recession, uncertainty is on everyone’s lips, including central banks which bought a record 1,135 tonnes of gold last year. Central Banks have shown no signs of slowdown going into 2023, buying 74t in Jan and 52t in Feb, the strongest start to central bank buying since 2010. It is clear why, with rising global inflation due to 2 years of unprecedented QE. A decade of cheap money has its costs which are coming back to bite both consumers and central banks. This is now being played with collapsing banks and crumbling businesses. Though governments may term these exceptions, they’re the inevitable consequence of hiking rates too fast. And even though inflation has now started to cool, it is proving stubborn and the risk of recession looms. In crisis, institutions and individuals rush to gold. It’s no wonder then that gold prices spiked in March nearing an All-Time-High above USD 2,000/oz. Gold continues to trade above the key 2000 level even in April. Even now crises show no sign of slowing. Recession talks have become commonplace and phantoms of 2008 haunt with bank collapses. The world is increasingly moving towards reshoring and friendshoring, and de-dollarization is talked about more and more. It is almost inevitable that gold will break its all-time-high soon. But, buying gold is the easy part, in fact, our previous paper covered 6 Ways to Invest in Gold. Managing gold as part of a larger portfolio is more nuanced. Allocating the right amount, finding the right entry, and knowing when to cash out are all critical. This paper aims to address two questions – 1. What are the key drivers of gold prices in this decade 2. How should investors use gold in balancing portfolios to navigate turbulent times? What Propels Gold After Its All Time High? SVB and Credit Suisse pushed it to its brink. In fact, spot prices in India, Australia, and the UK sailed even above their All-Time-High. But what propels gold now? Financial Instability Was Credit Suisse the End? “The current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come.” - Jamie Dimon Unfortunately, Credit Suisse was likely just a symptom of the larger problem. 2-years of near-free money has inevitably led others to make risky bets which catch up to them during periods of QT. Additionally, Credit Suisse and SVB’s collapse were both set off by an unprecedentedly aggressive rate hiking cycle. Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place as they try to control runaway inflation with aggressive rate hikes. Higher rates for longer increase the risks of financial instability. Stubborn Inflation and Recession Risks Stubborn inflation? Wasn’t inflation on its way down after almost a year? Yes and No. Although yearly inflation has definitely cooled in most countries from their peak last year, inflation continues to tick up month-by-month above the targets that central banks have set for themselves. It is not expected to reach below their targets even before 2025 in many countries. This is because although energy and commodity prices have cooled with demand waning, core inflation continues to remain stubbornly high. Additionally, food and energy prices are still volatile. On the back of this, recession risks remain high. Recently released FOMC meeting minutes showed that officials expect a recession in the second half of the year. A recession in many countries now seems inevitable. Gold shines during recession and high-inflation environments. High Interest Rates Wasn’t the Fed done hiking? Currently, CME’s FedWatch tool shows a ~72% chance of another 25bps hike next month despite the surprisingly low US CPI print. Does another 25bps matter? What’s more important is that 25bps is the peak rate and most central banks are calling this summit a pause and not a pivot. As such, rates will likely remain high for the remainder of 2023. Gold tends to perform well during high interest rate and risk-off environments. Escalating Tensions, Friendshoring, and De-Dollarization Last but definitely not least are central banks and their gold-buying binge. Though some of this can be explained by the ultra-high inflation. It is undeniably also driven by rising political tensions. The conflict in Ukraine continues to rage and the US extend its trade war against China with the CHIPS act. This is driving many of the largest economies to reshore and friendshore key supply chains. This also means relying less on the USD which can be weaponized by the US. De-dollarization has been underway for the last 23 years as the share of USD holdings in foreign exchange reserves has declined from 71.5% to 58.3% over the past 23 years. Current conditions make it more likely that the trend will accelerate. Gold inevitably benefits from all of this as it is one of the only assets that no other central bank can print or freeze. All of these factors will likely drive gold in the coming decade. But instead of setting a price target, investors can be prudent and methodical by properly allocating it as part of a larger portfolio. Using Gold in a Portfolio From 2000 until now, the following portfolios would deliver: Since 2000, gold has been the best performing asset out of the 3 main components of a basic portfolio – Large Cap stocks (SPY), Treasury Bonds (10Y), and Gold. Gold price has risen 609% compared to SPY at +193%. Investing in 10-year maturity treasury bonds would have netted investors 110% during these 23 years. As such, larger portfolio allocation towards gold would have yielded investors far more during this period. However, this comes at the downside of higher volatility. Gold has had an average 12-month rolling volatility of 15.8% over the last 23 years, slightly higher than SPY’s 14%. Still, not all volatility is bad, especially if the returns outweigh the risk. Volatility to the upside can be beneficial to investors. In order to measure the returns from the portfolio after accounting for higher volatility-associated risk, investors can measure the risk-adjusted returns using the Sharpe Ratio and Sortino Ratio. Sharpe Ratio measures the amount of excess return generated by taking on additional volatility-related risk. The higher the Sharpe Ratio, the better the portfolio is performing relative to its risk. The figure below contains the Sharpe Ratio for each of the portfolios across the last 23 years. Since each year had a different risk-free rate due to changing monetary policy, the Sharpe ratios vary for every year and there are periods during which gold-heavy portfolios have highest Sharpe ratios and others where it has the lowest. This highlights gold's sensitivity to changes in monetary policy. Sortino Ratio also measures risk-adjusted returns like the Sharpe Ratio however it only considers the risk of downside volatility. In other words, it measures return for every unit of downside risk. The figure below contains the Sortino Ratio for each of the portfolios. A key difference between the Sharpe and Sortino Ratios can be seen in the readings for 2009. Sharpe Ratio for a gold-heavy portfolio is the lowest in 2009 due to high volatility in gold prices. However, since this was volatility to the upside, the Sortino Ratio for a gold-heavy portfolio in 2009 is the highest. In 2023, a Gold heavy portfolio has performed the best and has the highest Sharpe and Sortino Ratio due to gold's relative overperformance amid the banking crisis. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Editors' picks
COMEX:GC1!Education
by mintdotfinance
4
We do not recommend holding any shares of Apple stockBased on my analysis, it appears that holding shares of Apple (AAPL) may not be advisable at this time. The current price is facing strong resistance, and there is limited upward pressure to push the price higher. Therefore, I recommend avoiding AAPL in your portfolio as the price is expected to decrease to $137, which is a significant support level. It is important to note that breaking out of the $147 resistance level may prove challenging for AAPL in the near future.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by azedinraiss
You don't know how to manage your portfolioI had a talk with my mentor earlier today, and we talked about how we each calculate the signal for our allocation towards ETH compared to BTC. It got me thinking that a lot of people actually aren't aware of why they allocate capital to different assets in the same class! Case in an upwards trend When the trend is up and you want to maximize your returns in crypto, with the least amount of risk... What do you do? Well, you know that alts are higher beta (they move more than BTC), but you don't know when BTC will alts... In the case for my conservative portfolio I only hold ETH and BTC, but how do I allocate between them? What I first and foremost do is look at the dominance chart for BTC: Here we see the dominance of BTC going down a lot, this is while the market is up (between 18th of jan 2021 and 19th of may 2021) The TPI informed us about the entire trend for the dominance chart. What you do in this scenario is now determine how much ETH you hold relative to BTC in this period (in your conservative portfolio) Open the ETH/BTC chart (I use binance personally) In this period we see ETH outperforming BTC a lot! When the TPI is bullish for the ETH/BTC pair, it means that ETH is likely to outperform BTC, how did that prediction go? As BTC dominance falls, and we see strength in ETH compared to BTC, we have a higher allocation towards ETH. But Omar, how do I quantize the amount of ETH compared to BTC? No one asked, but I will answer still: The TPI gives values between -1 and 1, I normalize these values between 0-1 for the ETH/BTC pair, where 0 is 0% allocation and 1 is 100% allocation towards ETH: Equation for normalization: minValue = 0 maxValue = 1 (TPI - minValue) / (maxValue - minValue) => (TPI - 0) / (1- 0) Since the TPI had been bearish with a TPI value at -1 for ETH/BTC since the 13th of march, 100% of my conservative portfolio is in BTC! Case in a downwards trend The method is the same, but reversed! When we look to maximize our returns on a short we want to short the asset that is underperforming! ETH was underperforming BTC by a large portion during the LUNA drama: This means most of the conservative portfolio was short ETH, rather than BTC Quite simple, but very effective! In conclusion I want you to ask your self, why am I allocating x% of my capital towards this asset (long or short), and is my allocation optimal? If you can't answer these two questions, then you probably need to look at your system Numbers don't lie, this method works! The TPI is truly the holy grail for a swing trader who wants to use statistics and data to maximize their returns and minimize their risk! Kind regards Omar I've linked an idea below from a dear friend of mine (much bigger than on this platform) who has marked out crutial levels for the altcoin market based on what the FED will do, give it a watch!
Education
by IkkeOmar
1
ETF PortfolioETF PORTFOLIO, TIME TO REBALANCE? After accumulating heavily between May and July, the time to rebalance the ETF portfolio is approaching. It has been a planting year, the partial harvest could come very soon. Despite the difficulties, everything is proceeding as it should, especially on the MSCI World, which has held up very well a complicated year like 2022. The complete portfolio is up 12.5% after the last rebalancing, if we also take into consideration my trading strategy connected to it, we arrive well above 20%. Not bad in terms of resilience in a year where my stock portfolio closed with a drawdown of -7.5%, supported by Apple and Amazon who underperformed anyway. Partial sale target €79.50 For other assets ... well you know... Happy trading LazyBull
MIL:SWDA
by LazyBull5
Tracking the China reopening basket: HSI, Copper, KRW and AUDSince early November, when China initially hinted at lifting statewide Covid restrictions, a basket tracking assets linked to the Chinese reopening story has surged by 22%. In the last 11 weeks, the China reopening basket, which is equally weighted with copper , Korean won , Australian dollar , and the Hang Seng index , has outperformed a global stock market (MSCI ACWI index) benchmark considerably. The China reopening portfolio has gained 22.3% versus a 6.8% gain of the MSCI All-Country World index since November 1st. Because the total volatility of the China reopening basket has been lower (19.2% compared to 21.8%), the Sharpe ratio has been even more positively skewed (9.61 vs 1.89). The Hang Seng index, which has climbed by 45% since November, has been the portfolio's best contributor with a weighted return of 11%, followed by copper with a weighted return of 5.3%.
NASDAQ:ACWI
by Capitalcom
2
Stock-bond correlation and 60/40 portfolio are at crossroadsIn 2022 the diversification between stocks and bonds within a "60/40" portfolio was an ineffective strategy that yielded negative returns and, as a result, did not safeguard the investment. The reason was that both equities and bonds plummeted in lockstep as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate rises, with the correlation reaching its highest level in a decade. The blue area in chart above shows the 60-day rolling correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 index ( SPX ) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ( BND ) ETF, which currently stands at 0.89. The positive stock-bond correlation had typically worked when the two assets climbed upward together in the post-GFC decade, but in this new environment, it did the opposite and for a longer time than in 2008 and 2020. Similar to 2008-2009, a 60/40 portfolio of global equities and bonds saw a maximum drawdown of 25% this year, but lasted more. The fall from peak to trough of the 60/40 portfolio lasted 252 days between June 2008 and March 2009, just 35 days between February and March 2020, and 336 days in 2022, making it the longest 60/40 bear market in the past two decades. 60/40 portfolio and its drawdowns – 60% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) & 40% Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND ) As we approach the final FOMC meeting of 2022, the future of bonds and stocks is at a crossroads, and a decoupling between the two assets may occur, making the 60/40 portfolio diversification plan more effective moving into 2023. If the Fed signals that the end of the hike cycle is nearing and adopts a more dovish stance on inflation, both stocks and bonds will benefit from here. If the Fed indicates that interest rates will continue to increase and that the window for a soft landing is narrowing, bonds will outperform stocks. However, equities will receive a boost when the recession comes and the Fed is pressured to cut interest rates. The downside risk of this approach is an excessive tightening of interest rates by the Fed, which might increase bond yields even more (and cause prices to drop) and further devalue equity markets, extending the bear market for the 60/40 portfolio.
SP:SPX
by Capitalcom
1
Gearing Up Good Day, Hello Traders, Since Sept 2021 till April 2022 Blue Star stayed in an Upward Parallel Channel. After that the price wne t from 1211 to 856 (-28.64%). See how beautifully it is following Fibonacci Levels as the rounding bottom is completed Now the next targets lined up are 1381/ 1641. Time Frame: Weekly It also depends how market behaves, however the trend and the sentiment is bullish. Chart Self Explantory. Disclaimer : I am not SEBI registered analyst, this is for educational purposes. Please trade as per your risk and do consult with your financial advisor before taking any trading decisions.. If you really like the analysis , please do comments, LIKE and Follow me.
NSE:BLUESTARCOLong
by Piscean17th
Coming at attractive Levels to Buy Good Day , Hello Traders, Vinati Organics keeps on falling since the last 6 weeks.Weekly Low's had been made exactly at 1771. It happened two times in the month of May and June 2022. Value buying comes around 1771 or if it breaks that as well and goes till 1673 then accumulate for the future as its a good candidate for the future. With 2 to 3 years horizon it can give you a good upside till 2800 to 3000 levels Keep a Deep Stop Loss of 1314 on weekly basis. Chart Self Explantory. Disclaimer : I am not SEBI registered analyst, this is for educational purposes. Please trade as per your risk and do consult with your financial advisor before taking any trading decisions.. If you really like the analysis , please do comments, LIKE and Follow me.
NSE:VINATIORGALong
by Piscean17th