CSI 300 - 2021 Q4 Outlook [1-3 months view] Trend Analysis Chart Patterns Wave Analysis csi300 china hongkong index Equity
Having completed the ABC corrective wave, CSI 300 started a new impulsive wave at the start of 2019. With price testing 1st support around the 4663.90 region where we also have a 50% Fibonacci retracement and possible wave 4 completion.
With the CSI 300 index holding above long term moving average and Stochastic indicator holding above support where price bounced strongly in the past, we see a strong case of price facing renewed bullish pressure. Price could very well push towards our 1st resistance at 5449.57 level and possibly even completing wave 5 target at our 2nd resistance level of 5930.90. Our 2nd resistance level is a key level as it is in line with the historical high of the index and also we have strong Fibonacci levels that finds confluence at that level.
Portfolio
Crypto Daily: Top-5 Portfolio Exceeds $50,000Today we continue to talk about the experiment with rebalancing a portfolio from the Top-5 cryptocurrencies.
The volume of the portfolio remained practically unchanged last week at about $44,000. But despite this, we carried out a rebalancing, during which we bought XRP, Crypterium, and Litecoin. Let’s see if this helped improve the health of our portfolio:
Over the past week, our portfolio has grown by 20% and its value has increased by $9,000 and is now $53,582. The last time we observed such values was 3 months ago, after the collapse on May 19th. Absolutely all cryptocurrencies in our portfolio showed double-digit growth and this indicates a strong upward trend in the market.
The leader of growth this week was XRP, the price of which increased by 38% and again exceeded $1. We warned you about such a development of events and our forecast came true. Now we expect to see the price fixing above $1 with subsequent growth up to the level of $1.20.
Litecoin also showed significant growth, which grew by 22.67% over the past 7 days. As we expected, the coin’s chart came to the $170 level and began to roll back down. In the short-term trend, the chart may move back down to $150 in order to gain strength before a new upward push. After that, the LTC price will rush to the level of $200 per coin.
Not far from Litecoin, CRPT is located, which only slightly lost from LTC — its price increased by 22.18%. We’ve been saying for a long time that CRPT is in the accumulation phase. Just last week, the chart broke the downtrend upward, which is a signal for a further round of growth. The closest level to which the chart will stretch is at $0.20.
Ethereum also rose this week. Its price has risen by 17.5% over the week. However, in recent days, the chart has been trapped in an ascending triangle and is gaining strength for a new upside breakout. We think that within a week ETH will be able to overcome the $3,200 mark and after that, the price will rush 10% — 15% up to the $3,500 — $3,700 range.
Bitcoin took the last place this time, but its result is very high — the growth was more than 15%. The chart of the first cryptocurrency has been declining during the last 3 days, as buyers were unable to break through the $46,000 level and gain a foothold above it. We expect to see a slight decline, which will be a retest of the downtrend line. In this case, Bitcoin can go down to the $40,000 — $42,000 range.
This time we will not carry out rebalancing, since all assets are in acceptable shares. It should be noted that the coins that we bought last time showed the best result and had a positive effect on our portfolio.
Now it is becoming obvious that the crypto market is moving into an upward trend. This can be seen in the strong growth of many altcoins (don’t forget to use AI Price Predictions before daily trading and for monitoring them). Most likely, we will see a new protracted round of growth until winter. According to the current situation, we can say that a small correction of 7% — 10% is needed before conquering new peaks.
Crypto Daily: Top-5 Portfolio Grew by 20%Today we continue to talk about our experiment with rebalancing a portfolio from the Top-5 cryptocurrencies
For the previous three weeks in a row, our portfolio had been steadily declining and showing a clear downtrend. During this time, its value has decreased by 12.5%. Let’s see if we managed to break this trend over the past 7 days:
As you can see from the table, our portfolio was able to break the negative trend and showed very strong growth of 20% or $7,500. This is one of the highest rates for the entire time of our experiment. Thus, the volume of the portfolio again exceeded the important $40,000 mark. Absolutely all assets in the portfolio showed positive dynamics this time.
At the same time, Bitcoin became the growth leader, despite the highest capitalization on the market. Its growth was 25.2%, which allowed it to regain a foothold at $40,000. The main resistance on the chart is in the $40,000 — $41,330 range. If Bitcoin breaks through it, then the price can quickly rise by tens of percent. Anchoring above the 200-day moving average is a good sign. A few days ago, a “double bottom” pattern formed on the bitcoin chart, which also indicates an increase in the $44,000 — $45,000 area.
XRP was only slightly behind Bitcoin and rose 24.92% over the week, which is also a strong result. The chart tested the 200-day moving average and bounced down. However, many signs indicate a reversal trend, which could lead to a new round of growth in the $0.92 — $1 range.
Litecoin also saw significant gains, gaining nearly 20% in value. The chart was able to break through the upper border of the descending channel and fixed above it. This opens up significant space for the coin to grow. The closest level the chart will strive to reach is the $170 mark. This is where the final transition to an uptrend is located.
Ethereum also posted good gains, up nearly 16% over the past week. For the last 4 days, the chart has been storming the $2,300 level and cannot overcome it in any way. This is a key area for Ethereum. When the price consolidates above this level, there will be an opportunity for growth by 30% — 40% up to $3,000. This development is especially likely in light of the upcoming London hard fork on the Ethereum blockchain.
CRPT this time showed the weakest dynamics since it became the growth leader last time. The coin chart began to show the first signs of a reversal. Namely, the price bounced off the largest support level and has already increased by 20%. The indicators also point to strong oversold and have already begun to turn upward. All this could trigger a very strong wave of growth in the coming months, up to the $0.50 mark.
The assets in our portfolio continue to remain in acceptable proportions, so today we will not rebalance the portfolio.
The past week has been very positive for the cryptocurrency market. The vast majority of cryptocurrencies have turned upward and are testing resistance zones. Depending on whether they are able to break through them, the further direction of the market movement will become clear.
BNBUSDBNB is ranging between 272$ and 450$ and has formed a double bottom pattern . this a good bullish pattern so this means there is a chance for bulls from this point. also there is a Regular bullish Divergence (+RD) on MACD as well which is quite good for bullish runs!
Traders, if you liked this idea or have your opinion on it, write in the comments, We will be glad.
Thank you for seeing idea .
Have a nice day and Good luck
ALKALINE PORTFOLIO - ALGOThis will be our Alkaline Free Crypto Portfolio. This portfolio will be held for the long term, so you must manage your capital to deal with potential dips in the crypto market. We will not provide every entry in one post, as we believe in the power of dollar-cost averaging. Leverage is not allowed, this portfolio must be followed by a Spot wallet.
Our analysis will be provided with an approximate entry price and the name of the token.
All the ideas provided must be taken with the same capital so that the performance is similar to the CryptoAlkaline portfolio.
You must divide your capital into entries of 2-5%. For example, a $10k bag will place entries of $200-$ 500, and in case of running out of money from the allocated capital, new entries must be taken with the same size.
It has been proven that the cryptocurrency market follows the same direction most of the time and that in this case, diversification does not eliminate the risk of losing money. However, we rely on diversification as a tool to increase our exposure to sporadic hikes in certain Altcoins.
Understand the risks involved in buying cryptocurrencies, and execute these activities legally according to the regulations of your country.
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NEW ENTRY in Algorand (ALGO/USD // ALGO/USDT)
ENTRY PRICE $ 1.06
NO LEVERAGE, NO TARGETS
Please read our "Free Crypto Portfolio Rules" before placing your positions.
From a technical view, Algorand is respecting the $1 psychological level, and the Daily 200 EMA. Also, it seems that Algorand is not too vulnerable to Bitcoin retracements.
This token has a use case for instant payments with low commissions and rewards through staking. Several payment processors such as Visa & Mastercard have shown interest in this asset. This fact causes the $1 level to be detected as a good buying opportunity, as it is considered reasonable for a token that could be used to pay for goods and services.
Good luck, Alkalites!
ALKALINE PORTFOLIO - RENGood morning, Alkalites! As promised, today we will start our Altcoin portfolio!
⚠️ How are we going to do it?
This will be our Alkaline Free Crypto Portfolio. This portfolio will be held for the long term, so you must manage your capital to deal with potential dips in the crypto market. We will not provide every entry in one post, as we believe in the power of dollar-cost averaging. Leverage is not allowed, this portfolio must be followed by a Spot wallet.
Our analysis will be provided with an approximate entry price and the name of the token.
All the ideas provided must be taken with the same capital so that the performance is similar to the CryptoAlkaline portfolio.
You must divide your capital into entries of 2-5%. For example, a $10k bag will place entries of $200-$ 500, and in case of running out of money from the allocated capital, new entries must be taken with the same size.
It has been proven that the cryptocurrency market follows the same direction most of the time and that in this case, diversification does not eliminate the risk of losing money. However, we rely on diversification as a tool to increase our exposure to sporadic hikes in certain Altcoins.
Understand the risks involved in buying cryptocurrencies, and execute these activities legally according to the regulations of your country.
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We will add our first entry in Ren (REN/USD // REN/USDT)
ENTRY PRICE $ 0.477
NO LEVERAGE, NO TARGETS
Please read our "Free Crypto Portfolio Rules" before placing your positions.
From a technical view, Ren is undervalued when trading below the last cycle support. In addition, its low capitalization is a gem for our portfolio.
Ren describes itself as an open protocol created to provide interoperability and liquidity between different blockchain platforms. Its aim is to implement interoperability in the DeFi ecosystem, eliminating the obstacles that liquidity implies between blockchains.
Good luck, Alkalites!
Ethereum Long ?Hello Guys,
I think about Ethereum Bullish.
Key reason:
Visa Picks Ethereum Over Facebook Libra to Settle Payments; ETH/USD Up
Ether, the de-facto settlement token of the Ethereum blockchain, rallied on Monday after global payment giant Visa became the ledger's latest supporter.
The crypto firm would allow Visa to engage in their physical cards, thereby gaining the privilege to settle transactions in USDC in addition to fiat currencies.
More tailwinds for Ethereum came after the Visa news.
Trading Involves High Risk ⚠️
Not Financial Advice 💸
Please Exercise Risk Management 💱
Crypto Portfolio management:
www.fiverr.com
Thanks, Everyone
PALANTIR Technical Analysis! Buy!
Hello, Traders!
Palantir is a data mining and analytics company
A recent IPO that skyrocketed into the stratosphere
And as with Tesla and broader stock market
We are seeing a correction on this stock
The price has now reached an important technical support level
So you can buy here and hedge with put options at strikes below 20$
Next good buy level is at 15$ as its a round number and -70% from the all time high
Good addition to the portfolio!
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
Rain Industries long position with target of 199 in 126 daysRain Industries Limited (RAIN) is one of the world's leading producers of calcined petroleum coke, coal tar pitch and other high-quality basic and specialty chemicals. The group continues to grow through capacity expansions, and mergers and acquisitions across the world.
NSE:RAIN
My entry is at 132 and target is of 199 (50%) with stop loss of 102 (22.5%)
While reading chart I noticed Stock is very Volatile and gives jump of 10% every week up or down.
My recommendation would be to book profit when Big Day candle is made and re-entry after securing SL
It has to sustain above 149 to make upto Target.
Target of 199 can be seen in 126days as shown in chart with reference of 26Nov time frame.
Volume is also rising slowly after big fall on 14May2018.
MacD(12,26,9) shows downside but it's reversing from last 2 days gain. Keeping an eye
Price of 300 is very difficult as per current plotting on chart considering volatility.
Positive flags:
Strong Performers - High DVM Stocks
1472.85% returns
The HERCULES portfolio The HERCULES portfolio is introduced.
The stocks that make up the portfolio were selected according to the following criteria:
1) belong to different business sectors
2) the sectors have great future growth prospects
3) their medium to long-term trend is upward
4) be growth shares
5) be financially healthy
6) either be profitable or have the prospect of becoming
7) their technical picture reveals that they will likely over perform the market.
Below are presented the mid-term trend charts of the stocks that make up the portfolio.
The HERCULES portfolio is designed so as to, although it is aggressive, let the investor to sleep calm at night.
In case of general market sharp correction the stocks of HERCULES portfolio have the potential to come back into their upward trend.
New stocks may be added to the portfolio in the coming period and some removed from it depending on their course.
Next follows the mid-term performance chart of HERCULES portfolio without the CRSR.
Prompt: New traders should take some time and carefully read the post entitled 'You can't beat the market' that is located in my profile.
Disclaimer
The author of this text is not an investment advisor. The preceding content is intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only.
It is not an advice or inducement for the purchase or sale of the products mentioned. Before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances,
it is very important to do your own research and analysis and also take independent financial advice from a professional to verify any information provided here.
Our Favorite ETF's Our favorite set of ETF's
Actively Managed Innovation ETFs
ARKK. ARK Innovation ETF
ARKQ Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF*
ARKW Next Generation Internet ETF*
ARKG Genomic Revolution ETF
ARKF. Fintech Innovation ETF
If you want a more aggressive portfolio these ETFs can gain you exposure to rapidly growing markets. These ETF's look to where the future is heading and positions themselves very well in each sector. The charts speak for themselves.
Coca-Cola (KO) - Long Term Investing OppI'm liking the oversold conditions for Coca-Cola (KO) for long term holding and dividend investing.
I will be adding more shares once the market opens in the morning.
2021 is presenting some pretty good opportunities to invest in durable, long term companies.
#CashFlow
Log Scale/Bullish PortfolioGot tired and kept forgetting to manage my IRA so I'm going to buy these and forget about it for awhile. I'm not trying to get a perfect buy on these but waiting on some of them and I probably will change out a few. I was going to do a penny portfolio but didn't have enough I was bullish on to get 30.
ABNB, ADAP, ADMP, APHA, AQB, BLNK, CCJ, CHEK, CIDM, CODX, CRDF, DRNA, EMAN, FRSX, FSLY, FTCH, GBTC, GHSI, GOGO, IBIO, INUV, IZEA, LPTX, NETE, NXE, PLTR, PLUG, PROG, QRTEA, RIOT, RUN, TCON, TELL, VALE, VUZI
Not financial advice
SILVER - Do not miss THIS!Silver has broke out of our triangle as we showed in previous charts. We urged our members to enter 20-24, not we have broken out and look to test much higher levels. We believe Silver is a great add to your portfolio for the long-term. Don't miss this.
As you can see Gold has already tested new highs. Silver is only just beginning - nowhere near its old highs.
Beating SPY with a lazy 40/60 stocks/fixed income portfolioAs a demonstration for how to use the multi-asset portfolio indicator, I decided to use this particular weighting scheme as it is a great, simple mid-risk allocation scheme for now. Subjected to minimal variance due to a low beta, exposure to volatility purely through the market is mostly done through a singular asset (VTI), whereas the other non-fixed ticker (PFF) exposes the user to, in my opinion, commonly neglected Preferred Stock! The remainder is distributed among fixed income, resulting in this sturdy guy.
IXIC: What Beta Means When Considering a Stock's Risk If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content!
I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
In this post, I will be providing a thorough explanation on the concept of Beta, and why it's important to consider the Beta value when investing in stocks.
Definition
Beta is a measure of the volatility , or systematic risk, of a security or portfolio compared to the market as a whole. It is used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for stocks.
For beta to be meaningful, the stock should be related to the benchmark that is used in the calculation.
However, a text-book definition of the concept does not really help us understand what Beta is
How to calculate the Beta
- To begin with calculating the value, we must first start by spotting the price change of a certain stock in comparison to the market's movement
- After a certain period, we collect enough data (grey dotted points), allowing us to plot a trend
- With this, we can figure out the relationship between the profitability of the stock we are looking at, and that of the market
- Based on the data, we calculate the Beta by dividing the product of the covariance of the stock's returns and the market's returns by the variance of the market's returns over a specified period.
Explained Through Examples
- We can consider 3 types of stocks:
- Stock 1 with a Beta value of 1
- Stock 2 with a Beta value of 0.5
- Stock 3 with a Beta value of 1.5
- We assume that these stocks are all listed on NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) moved up by 10%
- Stock 1, which has a Beta value of 1, will show the exact same movement paired to that of the market. It reflects 100% of the market's movement
- Stock 2, on the other hand, reflects only half of the market's movement, with a Beta value of 0.5 Thus, it moves up by 5%
- Stock 3, moves up by 15% as it has a beta value of 1.5, moves up more drastically than the market value, indicating that the stock is more volatile
Four Possible Cases for Beta Values
- We can consider four possible cases for Beta values:
Beta Value Equal to 1
In this case, the security (stock) shows a strongly correlated movement with the market movement. Examples of such securities include Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) such as QQQ which track the Nasdaq 100 index .
Adding a stock to a portfolio with a beta of 1.0 doesn’t add any risk to the portfolio, but it also doesn’t increase the likelihood that the portfolio will provide an excess return.
Beta Value Less Than 1
A beta value that is less than 1 means that the security is theoretically less volatile than the market.
Having a stock with such beta value helps make a portfolio less exposed to risk. Utility stocks often have low betas because they tend to move more slowly than market averages.
Beta Value More Than 1
A beta that is greater than 1.0 indicates that the security's price is theoretically more volatile than the market.
As in the example above, if a stock's beta is 1.5, it is assumed to be 50% more volatile than the market. Tech stocks tend to have higher betas than the market benchmark.
Having a stock with such beta value exposes the portfolio to more risk, but also higher potential returns as well.
Negative Beta Value
A security with a negative Beta value means that the stock is inversely correlated to the market benchmark.
Prime examples of such securities are inverse ETFs, and certain industry groups such as precious metal mining companies, where a negative beta value is commonly found.
Real Life Examples
- Based on the explanation above, we can now move on to the following examples of stocks listed on NASDAQ for real life examples: Lulu Lemon (LULU), Tesla Motors ( TSLA ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Costco (COST), ProShare UltraPro Short QQQ ETF ( SQQQ )
- Based on the NASDAQ Composite's movement (IXIC), we can see how certain stocks in certain sectors react differently, in similar trends
- In the case of stocks such as LULU and TSLA , we can see that the Beta value is extremely high, as their corrections and impulse moves are severely exaggerated compared to IXIC
- Amazon's movement also reflects a high beta value, but not as high as that of TSLA and LULU
- COST, on the other hand, seems to have a beta value close to 1, as it follows the movement of IXIC. It's less risky, as the drops are not as severe, but the potential profits are not too high either
- SQQQ , on the other hand, is a 3x leveraged ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index . As such, it has an inverse beta value, and shows huge spikes during times of correction for IXIC
Limitations of Beta
- The beta coefficient theory assumes that stock returns are normally distributed from a statistical perspective, but returns aren’t always normally distributed.
- A stock with a very low beta could have smaller price swings, yet it could still be in a long-term downtrend. So from a practical perspective, a low beta stock that's experiencing a downtrend isn’t likely to improve a portfolio’s performance.
- While the Beta value is useful in determining a security's short-term risk, it becomes less meaningful for investors attempt to predict a stock's future movements.
Conclusion
Understanding the concept of Beta is essential in portfolio diversification. A good investor can identify bullish and bearish market trends, and rebalance their portfolio accordingly. A good balance of securities with varying Beta values is imperative for a good balance between risk management and profit maximization.
Playing Volatility: Making a 2020-Averse PortfolioIn this case we normalize the ratio between SPY and FDLO (one of the better-performing min-volatility etfs of the year) to the start of the year. We can clearly see a shift in favour of a min-volatility portfolio as of late.
Performing efficient frontier upon FDLO to narrow down our investments, we see that, for maximizing a Sharpe ratio at the current 3-month treasury bond yield, our best options are (in terms of TICKER, WEIGHT):
CI,0.20459
LIN,0.14878
CABO,0.01408
CTXS,0.01166
CLX,0.01038
AKAM,0.00986
DPZ,0.00929
DG,0.00923
ADBE,0.00918
INTU,0.00909
and so on.
stats: Expected annual return: 22.8%
Annual volatility: 10.9%
Sharpe Ratio: 1.90
Minimizing volatility as opposed to maximizing Sharpe gives us more tickers (of course, the portfolio was made to be volatility-averse in general... but not COVID-Recession-Averse).
For stats of
Expected annual return: 14.1%
Annual volatility: 8.5%
Sharpe Ratio: 1.42,
We see:
LIN,0.04622
EQC,0.04516
DPZ,0.03391
CLX,0.03318
VZ,0.03257
WMT,0.03243
CHRW,0.02722
CI,0.02714
CABO,0.02352
DOX,0.02221
CHKP,0.02112
And so on...
Aston Martin cup and handleAston martin has experienced a hell of a crash from IPO, but you cant ignore the bullish potential here in my opinion. price has been in a squeezing formation since corona panic selling. the recent handle of the cup and handle acts as pullback after trendline breakout. price has maintained price at 55p and had 1.3m volume at Friday 4.25, 5 mins before close. a great long term and short term trade
5 "Dips" I Like: MVIS, VAPO, BBI, JMIA and CAPRRight now, I think MVIS is extremely oversold as well as VAPO and BBI. JMIA, I consider still a dip though in the green given recent bearishness. CAPR is likely going to retest for an uptrend again. A diversified portfolio that is quite small allocated towards these five may by mid risk. That being said, everything I say is on an opinion based basis. Please proceed with caution and invest at your own risk.
Slow but steady growthFor those who follow the value of the token, it can be seen that the price of the token is slowly but steadily growing.
The good news for me is the ability to pay for my portfolio with USDT stablecoin.
BT became a BUYGood opportunity to buy BT shares at this level - Be aware that the long term chart for BT is bearish so this becomes a risky buy... but I can promise you these are the best prices to buy the stock.
If you have any shares already invested in BT then this is a great opportunity to add to your position and benefit from a better average cost.
Arrow for directional purposes only. - Contact fro more advice regarding TP & SL.
Be clear this is an investment NOT a trade. Know the difference.
Happy Monday!