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Setups, Planning and RISK: How to MANAGE your RISK vs REWARD📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈 For today's post, we're diving into the concept " Risk-Reward Ratio " We'll take a look at practical examples and including other relevant scenarios of managing your risk. What is considered a good risk to reward ratio and where can you see it ? This applies to all markets, and during these volatile times it is an excellent idea to take a good look at your strategy and refine your risk management. Let's jump right in ! You've all noticed the really helpful tool " long setup " or " short setup " on the left-hand column. This clearly identifies the area of profit (in green), the area for a stop-loss (in red) and your entry (the borderline). It also shows the percentage of your increases or decreases at the top and bottom. It looks like this : 💭Something to remember; It is entirely up to you where you decided to take profit and where you decide to put your stop loss. The IDEAL anticipated targets are given, but the price may not necessarily reach these points. You have that entire zone to choose from and you can even have two or three take profits points in a position. Now, what is the Risk Reward Ratio expressed in the center as a number.number ? The risk to reward ration is exactly as the word says : The amount you risk for the amount you could potentially gain. NOTE that your risk is indefinite , but your gains are not guaranteed . The risk/reward ratio measures the difference between the entry point to a stop-loss and a sell or take-profit point. Comparing these two provides the ratio of profit to loss, or reward to risk. For example, if you're a gambler and you've played roulette, you know that the only way to win 10 chips is to risk 5 chips. Your risk here is expressed as 5:10 or 5.10 .You can spread these 5 chips out any way you like, but the goal of the risk is for a reward that is bigger than your initial investment. However, you could also lose your 5 and this will mean that you need to risk double as much in your next play to make up for your loss. Trading is no different, (except there is method to the madness other than sheer luck...) Most market strategists and speculators agree that the ideal risk/reward ratio for their investments should not be less than 1:3 , or three units of expected return for every one unit of additional risk. Take a look at this example: Here, you're risking the same amount that you could potentially gain. The Risk Reward ratio is 1, assuming you follow the exact prices for entry, TP and SL. Can you see why this is not an ideal setup? If your risk/reward ratio is 1, it means you might as well not participate in the trade since your reward is the same as your risk. This is not an ideal trade setup. An ideal trade setup is a scenario where you can AT LEAST win 3x as much as what you are risking. For example: Note that here, my ratio is now the ideal 2.59 (rounded off to 2.6 and then simplified it becomes 1:3). If you're wondering how I got to 1:3, I just divided 2.6 by 2, giving me 1 and 3. Another way to express this visually: In the first chart example I have a really large increase for the long position and you can't easily simplify 7.21 so; here's a visual to break down what that looks like: If you are setting up your own trade, you can decide at what point you feel comfortable to set your stop loss. For example, you may feel that if the price drops by more than 10%, that's where you'll exit and try another trade. Or, you could decide that you'll take the odds and set your stop loss so that it only triggers if the price drops by 15%. The latter will naturally mean you are trading at higher risk because your risk of losing is much more. Seasoned analysts agree that you shouldn't have a value smaller than 5% for your stop loss, because this type of price action occurs often during a day. For crypto, I would say 10% because we all know that crypto markets are much more volatile than stock markets and even more so than commodity markets like Gold and Silver, which are the most stable. Remember that your Risk/Reward ratio forms an important part of your trading strategy , which is only one of the steps in your risk management program. Dollar cost averaging is another helpfull way to further manage your risk. There are many more things to consider when thinking about risk management, but we'll dive into those in another post. A little bit more in-depth explanation on Dollar-Cost-Averaging here: And Finally, the last tool I'll give away today is an absolute MUST for all traders . Here's how to successfully set-up your own portfolio ratios: If you found this content helpful, please remember to hit like and subscribe and never miss a moment in the markets. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates📢 👍Hit like & Follow 👍 CryptoCheck
Education
by CryptoCheck-
Storms are Brewing: Is your Portfolio Weatherproof? Risk strikes when least expected. Optimism peaks before a downturn strikes. Chart below shows remarkable spike in articles mentioning soft-landing before recession hits. Human brain is engineered to think linearly. Anything non-linear tricks the mind. Recession is non-linear which muddles up investor estimates of recession, its timing and impact. Count of Soft-landing Articles & US Recession (Source: Bloomberg ) The US Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation has lifted rates by an unprecedented 525 basis points since the start of 2022. Yet the American economy, US corporations, and the US consumer are remarkably resilient. Non-Farm Payrolls last week came strong. When the Fed is tightening its levers to slow the economy, nothing seems to stop its rise. What explains this anomaly? Three words. Monetary Policy Transmission. Monetary policy transmission takes time, lulling many to believe that consumers and corporates are resilient. When in fact, they are yet to face the consequence of constrained credit markets which will manifest itself in myriad ways from reduced availability of financing, high cost of funding, and rising bankruptcies, just to name a few. This paper is set in two parts. First part describes monetary policy transmission. Part two dives into storms forming in the horizon. The paper concludes with a hypothetical trade set-up using CME Micro S&P 500 Options to defend portfolios from deepening polycrisis. Despite the risk narratives, a soft landing may still be possible. However, the combined impact of Fed’s hawkish stance, rising geopolitical tensions, continuing auto workers strike, tightening of financial conditions, and elevated oil prices & yields renders the likelihood of a soft landing, super slim. Narratives around the soft-landing aside, CTAs have dumped nearly USD 40 billion worth of S&P 500 futures positions marking the fastest unwind on record over the last two weeks as reported by Goldman Sachs. PART 1: MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION Monetary policy operates with long and unpredictable lags. Monetary Policy Transmission is the process through which a Central Bank’s decisions impact the economy and the price levels. The flow chart below schematically describes the downstream impact of quantitative tightening. Monetary Policy Transmission Takes Time (Source: ECB ) Changes made to official interest rates affect markets in diverse ways and at distinct stages. Central bank's interest rate decisions impact the markets in the following seven ways: 1. Banks and Money Markets: Rate changes directly affect money-market rates and, indirectly, lending and deposit rates. 2. Expectations: Expectations of future rate changes influence medium and long-term interest rates. Monetary policy guides expectations of future inflation. 3. Asset Prices: Financing conditions and market expectations triggered by monetary policy cause adjustments in asset prices and the FX rates. 4. Savings & investment decisions : Rate changes affect saving and investment decisions of households and firms. 5. Credit Supply: Higher rates increase the risk of borrower default. Banks scale back on lending to households and firms. This may also reduce consumption and investment. 6. Aggregate demand & prices: Changes in consumption and investment will change the level of domestic demand for goods and services relative to domestic supply. 7. Supply of bank loans: Changes in policy rates affect banks’ marginal cost for obtaining external finance differently, depending on the level of a bank’s own resources/capital. The mechanism is characterized by long, variable, and indefinite time lags. As a result, it is difficult to predict the precise timing of monetary policy actions on economy and inflation. For some sectors, monetary policy transmission can take as long as 18 to 24 months. In other words, the full force of the Fed’s 525 basis points spike since 2022 will not be felt until early 2024. Added to that, the Fed may not be done hiking yet. Probabilities of Rate Anticipation in Prospective Fed Meetings (Source: CME FedWatch Tool ) PART 2: STORMS ARE FORMING Not one but three major storms are brewing in parallel, namely (1) Worsening Geo-politics, (2) US Sovereign Risk Fears, and (3) Tightening Financial Conditions. One or more of them could unleash havoc, sending financial markets into a tailspin. 1. WORSENING GEO-POLITICS Adding to the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Hamas attack on Israel over the weekend has elevated geo-political tensions. If counter strikes escalate to a wider region impacting Strait of Hormuz, then oil prices could spiral up sharply, sending shocks across financial markets. Oil prices lost steam last week. That doesn’t guarantee lower prices. Eerily, this month marks 50-year anniversary of oil emergency in 1973 which led to oil prices spiking 3x back then. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserves are at a 40-year low. The reserves are at 17-days of consumption compared to an average of 34-days consumption observed over the last thirty years. 2. US SOVEREIGN RISK FEARS: The US government is facing multiple challenges of its own. The government narrowly avoided a shutdown and has kicked the problem can down the road only by six weeks. Long before investors take relief, the shutdown fear will resurface again. Add to that is the rising US debt levels. With a debt burden of USD 33 trillion, the government debt is forecasted to reach USD 52 trillion by 2033. With rates remaining elevated, a substantial chunk of US Government debt will be directed towards interest payments. Is there a risk of US debt default? To compensate for that risk, bond yields are climbing. The 10-Year treasury yields rose to 16-year high of 4.6%. With jobs market remaining solid, the data-driven Fed might have to keep the rates higher for longer. The futures market implies a probability of 42% for a rate hike during the Fed’s December meeting. Any further hikes can tip the recovering housing market back into crisis due to exorbitant mortgage rates. High yields also cost it dearly for firms to borrow. 3. TIGHTENING FINANCIAL CONDITIONS: Dwindling liquid assets, resumption of student loan repayments, stringent lending practices atop heavy debt burden on US Corporates are collectively weighing down on investor sentiments. Student Loan Repayments: After 3.5 years of loan servicing holidays, millions of students will resume student loan repayments. Bloomberg estimates that these repayments can shave 0.2% to 0.3% off US GDP. Depleted Savings: Strength of the US Consumers will be put to stress tests. Extra savings from pandemic stimulus checks have been depleted to below pre-pandemic levels for low-income categories. Consumer strength could turn into weakness in the coming weeks. Inflation Adjusted Liquid Asset Holdings by Income Group (Source: US Fed and Bloomberg Calculations ) Stringent Lending Standards: The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on Bank Lending Practices points to 50% of the banks imposing stringent criteria for commercial & industrial loans. Lending conditions are at levels last seen during 2008 global financial crisis. Impact of this will be felt in Q4 when business will be stifled from access to funds. Tightening Standards of Commercial & Industrial Loans (Source: July 2023 SLOOS Survey ) Corporate Debt Burden: Years of extremely low cost of funding have tempted US corporates into a debt binge. With rates rising, the debt burden is getting heavier on corporate balance sheets, cash flows, and profitability as reported by Bloomberg. Leverage ratios are rising. Interest coverage ratios are falling. Average Free Cash Flow to Debt ratios are plunging. Debt burden amid rising rate environment is hurting US Blue Chips (Source: Bloomberg Intelligence ) HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Against the backdrop of these risks, this paper posits a hypothetical back spread with puts to gain from sharp index moves. Unlike a long straddle, this option strategy delivers (a) outsized gains when markets plunge, and (b) limited downside risk if market remains flat or rises despite the risks. This strategy involves selling one unit of at-the-money puts to finance purchase of two units of out-of-the-money puts. This strategy can be executed either for net positive premium or net negative premium depending on the choice of strikes. Specifically, the hypothetical trade illustration is built around CME Micro Monthly S&P 500 Options expiring on 29th December 2023 (EXZ3). The strategy involves (a) selling 1 lot of EXZ3 at a strike of 4400 collecting a premium of USD 655 (131.16 index points x 1 lot x USD 5/index point), and (b) buying 2 lots of EXZ3 at a strike of 4300 paying a premium of USD 950 (95.041 index points x 2 lots x USD 5/index point). The hypothetical trade involves a net debit of USD 295 (58.922 index points * USD 5/index point). This trade breaks even when S&P 500 (a) falls below 4141, or (b) rises above 4400. Pay-off from Back Spread with Puts Trade Strategy (Source: CME QuikStrike ) Summary pay-off from this trading strategy is illustrated in the table below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by mintdotfinance
18
My secret to being a profitable Swing Trader: The TPIA Quick Reminder! It's important to have a good list of alt coins with good fundamentals, when you want to pivot over to hold altcoins like I show here! The Trend Probability Indicator (TPI) is a powerful tool utilized in modern portfolio theory to assess whether a market is experiencing a bullish or bearish trend. By integrating multiple systems, including machine learning algorithms, the TPI provides valuable insights into market conditions and helps investors make informed decisions. The TPI integrates eight systems, including a machine learning algorithm based on a kernel regression model. It analyzes market trends and determines the overall market structure (bullish, bearish, or neutral). The TPI value ranges from -1 to +1, with -0.2 to +0.2 indicating a neutral or ranging market. Positive TPI values indicate bullishness, negative values suggest bearishness. The TPI incorporates machine learning to predict future market movements. Investors can use the TPI to evaluate trend probability and make informed portfolio decisions. By using the TPI to compare the strength of cryptocurrency pairs, investors can gain valuable insights to make strategic investment decisions and optimize their portfolio performance while managing risk effectively. It gives you these additional super-powers to scan the market: The TPI helps gauge the relative strength between two cryptocurrencies, indicating which one has a stronger bullish or bearish trend. By comparing the TPI values of different cryptocurrency pairs, investors can identify favorable trading opportunities where one crypto is likely to outperform the other. Based on the TPI analysis, investors can allocate their portfolio in a way that maximizes returns by favoring the crypto with a stronger trend while minimizing risk. Timing Entry and Exit Points: The TPI assists in determining optimal entry and exit points for trading a particular crypto pair, improving the timing of transactions and potentially enhancing profitability. By considering the TPI values of different crypto pairs, investors can make more informed decisions regarding risk management, such as adjusting position sizes or diversifying holdings. The Based Algo The Based Algo is a mean-reversion tool that uses funding, adaptive moving average lines and funding + volume to detect tops and bottoms. Let me know if you have any questions! I linked a video that explains how we allocate between BINANCE:BTCUSDT and $BINANCE:ETHUSDT. Give it a look!
Education
by IkkeOmar
10
You don't know how to manage your portfolioI had a talk with my mentor earlier today, and we talked about how we each calculate the signal for our allocation towards ETH compared to BTC. It got me thinking that a lot of people actually aren't aware of why they allocate capital to different assets in the same class! Case in an upwards trend When the trend is up and you want to maximize your returns in crypto, with the least amount of risk... What do you do? Well, you know that alts are higher beta (they move more than BTC), but you don't know when BTC will alts... In the case for my conservative portfolio I only hold ETH and BTC, but how do I allocate between them? What I first and foremost do is look at the dominance chart for BTC: Here we see the dominance of BTC going down a lot, this is while the market is up (between 18th of jan 2021 and 19th of may 2021) The TPI informed us about the entire trend for the dominance chart. What you do in this scenario is now determine how much ETH you hold relative to BTC in this period (in your conservative portfolio) Open the ETH/BTC chart (I use binance personally) In this period we see ETH outperforming BTC a lot! When the TPI is bullish for the ETH/BTC pair, it means that ETH is likely to outperform BTC, how did that prediction go? As BTC dominance falls, and we see strength in ETH compared to BTC, we have a higher allocation towards ETH. But Omar, how do I quantize the amount of ETH compared to BTC? No one asked, but I will answer still: The TPI gives values between -1 and 1, I normalize these values between 0-1 for the ETH/BTC pair, where 0 is 0% allocation and 1 is 100% allocation towards ETH: Equation for normalization: minValue = 0 maxValue = 1 (TPI - minValue) / (maxValue - minValue) => (TPI - 0) / (1- 0) Since the TPI had been bearish with a TPI value at -1 for ETH/BTC since the 13th of march, 100% of my conservative portfolio is in BTC! Case in a downwards trend The method is the same, but reversed! When we look to maximize our returns on a short we want to short the asset that is underperforming! ETH was underperforming BTC by a large portion during the LUNA drama: This means most of the conservative portfolio was short ETH, rather than BTC Quite simple, but very effective! In conclusion I want you to ask your self, why am I allocating x% of my capital towards this asset (long or short), and is my allocation optimal? If you can't answer these two questions, then you probably need to look at your system Numbers don't lie, this method works! The TPI is truly the holy grail for a swing trader who wants to use statistics and data to maximize their returns and minimize their risk! Kind regards Omar I've linked an idea below from a dear friend of mine (much bigger than on this platform) who has marked out crutial levels for the altcoin market based on what the FED will do, give it a watch!
Education
by IkkeOmar
1
625 pip trade coming AUDUSDAUDUSD is getting ready for a massive move. We want to capitalize on this 625 pip move. This means we have to front run this trade by getting in it early and selling to the individuals who decide to come into the trade after we have. I proved 3 different trade targets for this trade based upon the 625 pip move - the 250 pip move and 100 pip move. we will hit all 3 time frames as we attempt to profit of the total 625 pip move. Lets end the year with one great trade!
Short
by RobinhoodFX
1
VOO VANGUARD S&P500 ETF- IS IT GOOD FOR A LONG TERM HOLD? VOO AMEX:VOO is showing promise. Markets have very slowly begun to correct since the Russian Invasion into Ukraine Feb 24th, 2022. Since then, you see some recover on this chart. While things are still uncertain with the overall health of the economy and markets the S&P is gaining some slow momentum. However is VOO a good long term hold ? Well, I'm gonna be opening a position with VOO for my portfolio and increase with dollar cost average new positions to protect me from any volatility. Hope you enjoy this TA and don't forget to like and subscribe and show your support. Disclaimer I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this TA,(Technical Analysis) are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using or reading this technical analysis or site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this analysis, or post. AMEX:VOO
AMEX:VOOLong
by CryptoBuzzAnalyst
BTC.D : A quick note on bitcoin dominance and altsCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D Hello everyone 😃 Before we start to discuss, I would be glad if your share your opinion on this post and hit the like button if you enjoyed it ! It is inevitable that at some points in the cycle, Bitcoin will outperform almost everything. With a few outliers of course. However, it's important that this doesn't change your game plan. Your game plan should already be set in motion. If you track your portfolio daily, both in USD and BTC, there are always fluctuations if you are holding a mixture of BTC, Alts and USD. It would be near impossible to maintain your portfolio's equivalent BTC value round the clock, unless of course you were all in BTC. I personally hold BTC as my base asset during bull runs (switching to USD at local tops or as near as I can) as well as moving to ETH as my base asset when ETHBTC looks set to out perform. However, it is inevitable that my alt coin holdings (spot) that I have accumulated will take a hit during a strong BTC run - so you may see your 'BTC worth' drop at times; However, I think of alt holdings like a coiled spring. When under pressure BTC, they bleed - and are suppressed. If you've accumulated at support, you need not to worry about the temporary drawdown in BTC, because in general alt coins out perform BTC in the right conditions, and so when bitcoin puts in a local top, altcoins regain their dominance and begin out performing. HOWEVER It is important not to be 'alt heavy' at times when the BTC dominance is at support. It is important to rotate the ratio of BTC:ALT:USD holdings to lessen the impact of alts bleeding at certain times in the market. For example, in January of this year, it was an amazing time to load up on altcoins given that BTC dominance was at resistance. We then saw astronomical gains in alts across Feb/March when BTC.D dropped like a rock. Then, in May when BTC.D hit support, the whole market tanked but alt coins got hit the hardest. Alts will lose value when BTC is volatile, in either direction. So it's important to balance the ratio of your holdings across BTC, alts and stables at certain times in the market. I pay attention to Bitcoin dominance more so for my spot holdings. For my trading account, every asset is simply a method of making a profit on percentage gains. So whether I'm trading BTC, ETH or alts - it doesn't matter as much. But for spot holdings, I generally want to cycle my ALT:BTC or ALT:USD holdings. When BTC.D is at support, I want to hold less alts. When BTC.D is at resistance, I want to load up on alts.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by Helical_Trades
17
EURCAD / NZDCHF WEEK Following the last week's events the upcoming 1 to 2 weeks seems to be ideally alligned for a great hedging opportunity between these 2 pairs the excessive trading action has dragged eurcad in abnormal levels that makes is very complicated for those who are holding long term positions to cover the exposure or trail their gains. For those who do not need to rebalance or for those who are looking to start building new position i have indicated the levels that i am expecting to provide great opportunities with a very low risk in both expectancy and volatility side
Long
by Kyrie_Atsalakis
GBPJPY SEVERLY UNDERPRICED ON THE GBP SIDE?Last weeks pound selling spree continued during Friday's sessions the US open volume made an attempt to make an initial break on the upside but felled short i am expecting a retracement on the upside .A heavy buying action session this week could cause a short term change in the trend direction. GBPJPY,GBPUSD and because of its correlation slip USDJPY also will be my main cover positions this week and the top three pairs in my hotlist . If you have exposure in these pairs i would highly recommend to be on the look out to cover using their correlation relationships. Position will be update during the week
Long
by Kyrie_Atsalakis
Crypto Assets - Balancing the BasketToday's discussion is one which will send many crypo-traders into a riotous frenzy. In this market many traders are of the belief that high frequency, short term trading patterns can pay off due to its fast paced volatile movements. While this may or may not be true, it does leave one of the most important lessons of both investing, and trading, at the door - without context or discussion by most writers. Long term goals There is little in investing, or trading, which is more important than setting long term goals. Really you could make this argument for just about every area of your life, but its extra important with so many fast paced, and dynamic influences being accounted for (or not). We must set expectations of ourselves. We must have metrics to measure success and failure. We must make decisions - sometimes in time constraints - which are in line with long term motives and plans, or we will fail. The pits of a market are not the place for emotion, or guesswork. Picking Positions Its important to think of positions in the crypto market similarly to any other market. Never forget that " cash " or in the crypto marketplace " fiat " is a position. Picking a position is a vital part of investing and trading alike. It is literally art, and we use the science to explain, and predict the art. I don't want to go too far into the picking portion in this write-up. Lets look at some long term plans with regard to what we want to pick. I believe in picking assets which make long term sense. I look at projects which appear to be among the best, or clearly the best in a use case in this market place. Probable use cases of Decentralized Blockchain 1.) Remittance and FinTech 2.) Distributed Services, (DAPPS, Governance, Tracking, Logistics, Supply, etc.) 3.) Production level long term stable decentralized ledger for data, analytics, and value Subsequent Positions & Holdings Fiat/Cash this is at times a position awaiting better market entry conditions XLM Lumens - ICO's on a super fast chain, super cheap transactions, excellent settlement with asset swapping (exchanges) -- Asset Class 1 LISK - blockchain as a service (sidechain), DPoS, speed, flexible SDK (.js programming), Great future governance -- Asset Class 2 Bitcoin - stability, production value, longevity, proof of concept -- Asset Class 3 Pruning difficult decisions A large part of trading and investing is about discipline. There are terms which have developed in the crypto marketplace to describe the emotional ebb & flow of a trader: " FOMO ", " weak-hands ", and " FUD ". These are all terms which in every other marketplace are not required. Difficult decisions require discipline in the market. Namely being willing to " call a bottom " to buy, and " take profits " through the top of the market. These two things are difficult, and many traders struggle with the buying aspect. Most investors struggle with the selling aspect. Both of these "weaknesses" in strategy can be accounted for with some long term planning. The bottom line is traders and investors both must be ready and accustomed to stomaching ugly bottoms, and exciting tops with little emotional input. Re-balancing a Basket of Assets To be continued...
SLong
by blessmywork
7
Re-adjusting & Adding to SWKSWell I took the majority off of GMCR looking to put that capital to work in SWKS. I like the company fundamentally, and look to add more to the position. Due to the real chance of a pullback / correction in the general market I like entering through the options market limiting my risk to the premiums. Also we have a potential bullish pinbar forming at support, and above average "buy" volume supporting the move. Along with very large Q1 Institutional accumulation of shares, I feel comfortable adding at this area. I will keep any followers posted on progress for the remainder of the trading day today. As I will be looking at the final hour of trading to enter into the position. Do note that this is more of an investment for me so any short term volatility will not shake me out of the position, and as long as the stock stays above the D1 200 Moving Average then I'm holding, and hedging the positions accordingly.
NASDAQ:SWKSLong
by Daniel.B
3