Position Sizing StrategiesPosition Sizing
Traders spend much of their time looking at charts and analyzing using technical or fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. While this indeed is a very good thing to spend time on, not all traders take their time to focus on risk management, and more specific position sizing. I see a lot of new traders or old traders which trade only to have their accounts blown up by taking random positions with no plan whatsoever. Proper position sizing is a key element in risk management and can determine whether you live to trade another day or not. Basically your position size is the number of shares you take on a trade. It can help you from risking too much on trade and blowing up your account. Without knowing how to size your positions properly. You may end up taking trades that are far too large for your account. In such cases, you become highly vulnerable when the market moves even just a few points against you.
Your position size or trade size is more important than your entry and exit when trading or investing. You can have the best strategy in the world. But if your trade size is too big or too small, you will either take too much or too little risk. So how do you prevent yourself from risking too much? How do you know the right quantity to buy or to sell when you initiate a position? Let's say you have $10,000 in your account, and there's a stock valued at $100 you like and want to buy. Do you buy 100 shares, 10 shares, or some other number? This is the question you must answer to how to determine your position size. If you decide to spend your entire account balance and buy 100 shares, then you will have a 100% commitment to the stock and this is not indicated also in taking a position that represents a large portion of your total portfolio. There is also the opportunity cost involved, you will have to pass up other trades that you may have liked to enter.
Position Sizing is a critical issue that a trader needs to know beforehand and to do on the fly. It's as important as picking the right stock or currency to invest.
Position Sizing Strategies
☀️ There are several approaches to position sizing and I will run down some of the more popular ones.
1️⃣ The first one and the most common one is "Fixed percentage per trade".
Position Sizing can be based on the size of an overall portfolio.
This means a percentage of that overall capital will be predetermined per trade and will not be exceeded. That would be 1% or even 5%.
This fixed percentage is an easy way for you to know how much you are buying when you buy to use a simple example of fixed percentage position sizing. Let's take again the $10,000 account size and a $100 stock. If you take a simple one-person position based on your account size that comes down to a single share, you may be thinking you are no better than the person with a $100 account buying one share. The difference is that the $100 account holder has a 100% position size while the $10,000 account holder is putting just one percent at risk.
Which position size allows a trader to sleep better at night? Of course, the second position sizing helps control the risk. A 1% hard limit on each trade allows you to tolerate many losses in your search for profits.
Protecting your capital is your primary job. Your secondary job is allowing room in your portfolio to find other trading opportunities.
The fixed percentage amount is an easier approach to accomplishing this
2️⃣ The second risk management approach involves a "fixed dollar amount per trade". This approach also uses a fixed amount for this time. It's a fixed dollar amount per trade, rather than a percentage of the actual portfolio. This involves choosing a number again and using the same $10,000 portfolio as an example. So you decide you won't spend any more than $200 on any trade. For traders with small account sizes, this can be an attractive approach because it limits how much you can lose.
However, it also limits what stocks you can buy. You will have to roll out some securities based solely on their price. Of course, this is not necessarily a bad thing.
3️⃣ The third approach is "volatility-based position sizing"
A more complex approach, but one that allows for more flexibility is position sizing based on the volatility of the security you plan to buy. It's more dynamic because it doesn't treat each stock the same. This approach allows you to drill down and exercise finer control over your portfolio. For example, growth stocks will invariably be more volatile, and that volatility will be reflected in your portfolio. To reduce that overall risk on your portfolio. You wouldn't buy less high volatility stocks than you would lower volatility stocks.
You can measure volatility with something as simple as a standard deviation over a given period, say 15 or 10 trading days. Then depending on the deviation, you adjust the number of shares you buy when you initiate a position. This allows lower volatility stocks to have more weight in your portfolio than higher volatility ones. Position Sizing based on this ideology lowers the overall volatility within a portfolio. This strategy is frequently used in large portfolios.
Even longer-term traders and investors face position sizing questions for them when the price of a security with their holding goes down. It represents more value. Adding to their position, in this case, is referred to as averaging down. Long-term traders can decide to average down using similar position sizing approaches by risking either a fixed dollar amount or a percentage amount when the stock trades down you can use standard deviation here as well to help figure out the dollar amount.
Some additional common sense risk parameters seem worth mentioning and may be incorporated into your trade plan. For example,
Once you've figured out how much you're comfortable losing a stop loss level for each trade should be determined and placed in the market. A seasoned trader will generally know where to put their stop loss orders after having optimized their trading plan and chart analysis is often performed when setting stop-loss orders rules of thumb should be followed when you use stops to manage risk on your positions.
By now I hope you realized that correct position sizing is crucial. You should always consider how much you buy when you buy and also know how you came up with that number. Regardless of your account size. Take the time to come up with a consistent approach that matches your trading style and then stick to it. You can incorporate flexibility as well. For example, if you're willing to take more risks with your portfolio, you can die a lot of the person that you use. sound money management techniques can help make an average trader better and a good trader becomes great.
For example, a trader that is only right half of the time, but gets out of losing trades before the loss becomes significant and knows the right winners to a substantial profit would be way ahead of most others with trade with no clear plan of action whatsoever. And you have to find the right balance because if you risk too little and your account won't grow and if you risk too much, your account can be destroyed in a few bad trades.
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Position
BTC is still in questionable flatI gave you some brain food, be cautious with Futures :)
I believe that we will grow as soon as mid august, but we can never be sure with BTC.
As always:
- Weekly Pivots
- Channel
- Hand Drawings
- Liquidations
- Current market movement
- Fixed volume
All included. If anything happens I will post another Idea.
If we follow the red tags and fall in a flat there, we will continue going down,
If yellow - up
Contact me for questions (@Sadesguy)
matic make a bull flag pattern and it loks like it will move upmatic will move after makeing bull flag pattern and on 4EMA indicator to take a long position
Short position for SOLUSDT- The main bearish trend is still going on
- Momentum is still bearish
- Short term trend line has just been broken
Entry Point: $33 to $34
Stop Loss: $36
First Target: $28
DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS.
DO NOT FORGET MONEY MANAGEMENT.
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- 🔥 Bitcoin vs Gold
SBIC - Resisting 800 levelsSbi card is moving with lower highs and lower lows formation since August 2021.
The stock has broken its important support levels around 800 and is resisting it for the past two weeks.
This week it opened with the gap on the downside and saw follow-up weakness.
Going ahead, the 770- 800 zone would act as a strong resistance for the stock and we could also see it moving towards 600 levels in the coming months, considering its weak price structure.
$AAPL for a Swing Put/ShortOn Friday, we saw $AAPL, $AMD, among other tickers like $MSFT, $NVDA, and $TSLA weigh down on the S&P 500. All of these tickers currently weigh on the bearish side and have affected the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
$AAPL has been retesting the blue S/R level at ~$150 and failing to move above it. Definitely a VERY bearish setup, however, anything can happen and there is potential for it to rip above again via an inverse H&S. Until then, I'm leaning bearish on AAPL and the high probability that the entire market will drag lower too. Keep in mind that we have bearish conviction in the form of OTM flow orders hitting the tape for next month on $SPY.
BEFORE, ON TIME and AFTERHello everyone
Today we will try to figure out what kind of thinking is correct during the opening, holding and closing of a deal.
Any trader faces these three stages, but not everyone knows how to behave correctly and therefore mistakes are made.
Go!
Before opening a deal...
Every time you find an entry point that matches the rules of your trading strategy, you should think about the following important points:
• Determine the level to set the stop loss.
It is not necessary to set a smaller stop loss due to greed. You should have a stop loss strategy that will be based on the highs or lows of the price, at the levels, because these values are really important and it will be much more difficult for the price to pass the level - this will protect your position and your stop loss from premature closure.
• You must be able to accept losses.
Before each trade, you should remind yourself that a trade can be unprofitable, since there is nothing 100% in the market. Remember this every day. Remember that setups don't always work, and then you won't lose more by rearranging the stop loss or not putting it at all in the hope that the setup will definitely work.
• It takes time.
The deal does not reach the goal in a minute. The market will move in different directions, and you should be able not to react to every movement and give the deal time. Many people forget about it, but due to the constant monitoring of the market and reactions to every movement, traders make mistakes, lose money. You need to be able to wait, understand this. Let the deal work and don't interfere.
The position is open!
The most interesting thing starts right here!
And it is here that a huge number of unnecessary mistakes are made.
• The market must prove you wrong.
After opening a position, the set stop loss will be the level at which it will be clear that you were wrong. You should leave the open position alone and let the price prove you right or give you an erroneous opinion. Touching the take profit price will mean that you were right, there is no stop loss.
• Constant monitoring of the situation.
If you are still following every movement, most likely you will react to false price fluctuations and sooner or later you will close the position. You may just get tired of watching the price move and eventually make a mistake.
You can check your deal once or twice a day, but no more.
You must act according to your strategy, which gave the signal to open a position. Let the strategy work and don't interfere.
Closing a position
It does not matter whether the deal was profitable or not, it is important to rest after it, stop, put your thoughts in order.
It is difficult, after closing a position, to return to the market for a new setup, especially if the transaction was profitable. After all, they lead to excessive self-confidence, which leads you to open bad deals in large numbers.
After a losing trade, you always want to quickly return to the market to recoup. This is a big mistake. Opening deals that are based on the desire to win back what is lost is an abyss into the abyss. Emotionally, you run to open a deal, open on bad signals and lose even more, and so again and again. You have to understand that losing money in the market is normal, you don't have to run to win them back. Learn to accept losses.
The only thing you should do after closing any position is to be disciplined and stick to the trading strategy. The easiest way is to just leave the market and get away from the chart for a while.
It is very important to remember that you need to be able to save money. If you have earned something, withdraw some part at the end of the month, let it be your reward, which will give you self-confidence and you will become a calmer trader in the long run.
Good luck!
BTC + SPX Trade IdeaThis is a medium term swing/position trade that has a pretty good chance to play out. Check out this fib idea below which underscores the idea. Obviously, don't panic buy unless you like riskier trades. Ease into your entry! June thru October looks like a decent entry if nothing too crazy happens, but a surprise via some global disaster could RUIN this trade. Sellers are willing to accept lower prices for this past year, that's basically what the log returns is telling us as it's below 0. In other words, risk has not paid off in a while on this scale. Risk-averse HAS paid off. This is a contrarian trade. The crowd is now ultra bearish and this presents an opportunity of price discovery. Wait for them to come to you, don't panic and go to them.
The wholesale price range is defined by the region of prices where most trades were made AND the result of those trades is highly random. The bottom and tops of this wholesale zone represent the golden ratio 0.618. Remember, the absolute value of the inverse of 0.618 is 0.382. Both of these fib levels are identical, one level represents sells and the other represents buys. In other words, we don't define where 0 or 1 is. We draw the golden ratio area of the fib box around the wholesale range, then we get the definition of 0 and 1.
Be aware though, that if you do this same analysis but with Log Returns on a 2 Year timeframe instead of 1 Year, we could still be in a distribution zone. Don't put all your apples in this basket. Be diligent about your position:
This gives us quite a startling conclusion. The rally of Dec 2018 was simply a bear market rally on a 2 Year scale. We could be in the very SAME situation now. Lower highs on the indicator, then lower lows. So even though it LOOKS like a decent buy on the 1 Year timeframe, we should NOT assume it's going to the moon if the price reaches our target (red crosshair) unless there is some drastic shift in monetary/fiscal policy which would cause a new cycle to suddenly appear.
What do you think about all this craziness?
I hope you liked the idea, and good luck. Don't forget to hedge your bets! :)
Pilot Position to Stay EngagedBought a Quarter Defensive Position (4K, .77% of portfolio) @496.38, Stop @478.14 (-3.67% 150 USDs Risk) just to have a tiny position to stay engaged and on synch with the market. Market making lower lows and this stock is holding.
Still 99%+ in cash.