Strong Buy SBIN cmp 622, Target 670++ within 3-5 trade sessions.State Bank of India is a Fortune 500 company. It is an Indian Multinational, Public Sector banking and financial services statutory body headquartered in Mumbai. It is the largest and oldest bank in India with over 200 years of history.
Branch Network
Presently, the bank operates a network of 22,219 branches and 62617 ATMs across India. It also operates 71,968 business correspondent outlets across India.
Market Share
The bank has a market share of 22.84% in deposits and 19.69% share in advances in India. It has a strong customer base of 45 crore customers.
Loan Book
Retail loans account for 39% of the loan book, followed by corporate (37%), SME (14%) and Agriculture (10%). The bank has a well-diversified loan book exposed to various sectors. Top sectors include home loans (23%), infrastructure (15%), services (12%) and agriculture (10%). 75% of the corporate advances are rated A and better ratings from rating agencies. 38% of the corporate book accounts for PSUs & Govt. departments.
International Business
The bank has a global footprint with a network of 233 branches/offices in 32 countries. It has presence in USA, Canada, Brazil, Russia, Germany, France, Turkey, Australia, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and other countries. Presently, Overseas business accounts for 3% of total deposits and 13% of total advances.
Government Business
SBI has always been the banker of choice to the government of India and is the market leader in government business. It had turnover of 52,50,000 lakh crores and commissions of 3,700 crores from government business in FY20.
Financial Inclusion Business
The bank has 71,000 BC outlets which has primary focus on financial inclusion customers. The bank accounts for 40% of all PMJDY accounts i.e. more than 12 crore accounts. Presently, the deposits from PMJDY accounts are 42,500 crores i.e. 1.2% of total deposits of the bank.
Digital Metrics
Increasing digitization resulted in 40% of asset accounts and 60% of liability customers added via digital channels in FY21.
Subsidiaries Operations
The bank owns various subsidiaries which are engaged in related business activities :-
1. SBI Capital Markets Ltd (100% stake)
2. SBI DHFI Ltd (72% stake)
3. SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd (69% stake)
4. SBI Life Insurance Co. Ltd (57.6% stake)
5. SBI Funds Management Pvt Ltd (63% stake)
6. SBI General Insurance Company Ltd (70% stake)
KEY Ratios (Q1FY24)
Capital Adequacy Ratio - 14.50%
Net Interest Margin - 3.34%
Gross NPA - 4.77%
Net NPA - 1.23%
CASA Ratio - 45.15%
Book Value ₹ 402
Price to book value 1.55
Bank's performance:
Quarterly net profit of 14,330 crores.
Operating profit for Q2FY24 at 19,417 crores.
RoA for H1FY24 at 1.10%.
RoE for H1FY24 at 22.57%.
Net interest income increased by 12.27% YoY.
Non-interest income increased by 21.59% YoY.
Credit growth:
Domestic advances grew by 13.21%.
Driven by SME advances, retail personal advances, and agri advances.
Corporate segment advances grew by 6.62%.
Asset quality:
Gross NPA ratio improved by 97 bps YoY to 2.55%.
Net NPA ratio improved by 16 bps to 0.64%.
PCR improved by 39 bps YoY to 91.93%.
Future outlook:
Credit and deposit growth expected to be around 16-17% in FY24.
Margins may see a slight compression of 3-5 bps due to increased deposit rates.
Aims to maintain credit growth momentum by disbursing pending loans and converting proposals into sanctions.
SME loans:
Witnessed healthy growth in SME book.
Initiatives taken to improve infrastructure for SME lending.
Expects to reach target of 4 trillion in SME loans by FY24.
Unsecured loans:
Unsecured loan portfolio, including Xpress Credit, has a low GNPA ratio of 0.69%.
Resilient in terms of asset quality.
Digital initiatives:
Increased traction in cross-selling business through YONO.
Sourced 61% of savings bank accounts digitally.
Launched "YONO for Every Indian" and witnessed growth in digital loan portfolio.
Capital adequacy:
Well capitalized with a capital adequacy ratio of 14.28% and CET-1 ratio of 9.94% which is well above regulatory requirements. Expects CET-1 ratio to improve further with ploughing back of profits.
Conclusion:
SBIN stock price has given a breakout multiple times along with the strong volumes and today it has retested the breakout zone, which is a strong buying point for a minimum target of 670 in 3-5 trading sessions. Fundamentally, stock can has an intrinsic valuation of Rs.800 so there is an enough cushion and momentum on upside.
Positiontrade
EURAUD in the first half of 2024A glimpse of the EURAUD in the first half of 2024
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Lookin long on PM in the very near future! Thank you as always for watching my analysis. I hope you can learn something very educational on this video. Also one thing I did not mention on this stock is the fact that the fundamental analysis on this stock looks underrated as well so that just adds more confluence. Have a blessed January!
SUZLON Heading for multibaggingI don't recommend Penny stock but this one caught our eyes given its possible potential future in energy sector. recently it has breakout of the lower lows downtrend. SUZLON seems to be good stock to invest on.
Recommended ENTRY zone 12-9.5
Stoploss 6.5
Targets 22.2 27 and ultimately 150
SPX 500 - where are we now?G'day,
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Three, Four Day
Orange = Daily
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed.
Daily Chart
Weekly
Monthly
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IRDM : POSITION TRADEIridium Communications: A Great Company At A Fair Price
NASDAQ:IRDM
- Iridium Communications has done really well in recent months between landing another large contract and increasing financial guidance.
- This has sent shares roaring higher, but this has a downside to it as well.
- The stock seems to be more or less fairly valued at this time, even though the firm remains excellent for long-term investors seeking stability.
...As revenue has risen, profitability has also increased. Net income of $4.6 million in the latest quarter was higher than the $3.8 million reported the same time one year earlier. Operating cash flow in the latest quarter came in at $99.8 million. That's 32.7% above the $75.2 million generated just one year earlier. Meanwhile, EBITDA for the company expanded from $94.8 million in the second quarter of 2021 to $105.9 million the same time this year. Naturally, this strong bottom line performance has had a positive impact on the company's results for the first half of the year as a whole.
Due to how things are turning out so far this year, the management team at Iridium Communications decided recently to increase their guidance for the current fiscal year.
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Daniel Jones, Seeking Alpha, Aug. 02, 2022 11:15 PM ET
CCJ : BASE 0 DURATION / POSITION TRADECameco (NYSE:CCJ) released a strong print ahead of market open, and followed up with a strong call, as the market leader points towards a narrowing supply/demand gap and increased willingness for utilities to contract at higher prices:
CATALYSTS :
McArthur River - CEO Gitzel indicated that there's no change to the Company's strategy of pre-selling future production; there's a home for the additional supply from McArthur's restart, and they will not be growing production to build inventory or sell into an oversupplied spot market.
Contracting - the company added 40m lbs to the contract book in the first month of 2022, as the fundamental backdrop for demand improved; additionally, the pandemic and depletion in Kazakhstan has brought security of supply challenges for customers; "contracting begets contracting" and Cameco expects continued opportunities to lock in favorable, long-term contracts throughout 2022.
Sprott - The emergence of a "financial market" buyer in late 2021, namely Sprott (OTCPK:SRUUF) soaked up a lot of spot-market supply and pushed up spot prices; however, spot buying also removed customer complacency and pushed longer-term contract prices higher.
Kazakhstan - both trade policy concerns and instability in Kazakhstan have focused buyers on the origin of supply and helped Cameco take market share.
Having struggled with an oversupplied market since Fukushima, it appears the uranium market is finally coming around for low-cost, long-lived producers in secure jurisdictions, like Cameco. With favorable policy likely to come out of the European Taxonomy proposals, the sector (NYSEARCA:URA) appears well positioned for a strong 2022.
SOURCE:
CCJ after the call -- after a decade, the market looks to be turning, shares up ~15%, Nathan Allen, Seeking Alpha, Feb. 09, 2022
seekingalpha.com
Uranium: Potential Trade Of The Decade, Gain Exposure With SRUUF, URNM, Live Hard Investing, Seeking Alpha, Feb. 10, 2022
seekingalpha.com
PERI : POSITIION TRADEQ3 : EARNINGS CALL HIGHLIGHTS:
Looking at the last 8 quarters, our ability to exceed the rule of 40 is not a series of anomaly or a one-off success. Quite the opposite, we are outperforming the industry because we are built on the fundamental recognition that adtech must be able to respond, underlying response to the trend with ability and agility.
Revenue of $158.6 million, reflecting 31% year-over-year growth, the highest quarterly revenue since 2014. Adjusted EBITDA of $33 million, 21% of revenue compared with 15% last year, reflecting 87% year-over-year growth. Net -- GAAP net income of $25.6 million, 141% year-over-year growth, the highest quarterly net income since 2014. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.61, reflecting 53% year-over-year growth.
The third quarter revenue was $158.6 million, an increase of 31% year-over-year. The strong continued revenue growth reflected a CAGR 38%. Display advertising revenue increased by 26% year-over-year to $86.8 million, 55% of total revenue. Market adoption of our holistic video platform solution continued to rise. Video revenue more than 3% year-over-year, representing 44% of display advertising revenue. The number of video platform publishers increased by 88% year-over-year from 34% to 64%, and the revenue from retained video platform publishers increased by 67% year-over-year.
Third quarter OpEx and COGS amounted to $31.7 million or 20% of revenue compared with $33.1 million or 27% of revenue last year. This impressive achievement reflects the execution of our business strategy.
On a GAAP basis, net income was $25.6 million or $0.53 per diluted share, an increase of 141% compared with $10.6 million or $0.28 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2021. On a non-GAAP basis, net income was $29.9 million or $0.61 per diluted share, an increase of 94% compared with $15.4 million or $0.40 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2021.
Adjusted EBITDA of $33 million, reflecting 94% year-over-year growth, adjusted EBITDA margin of 21% compared with 15% last year. Adjusted EBITDA to revenue, excluding TAC increased from 37% in the third quarter of 2021 to 51% during the third quarter of 2022.
Operating cash flow was $34.7 million compared with $14.2 million in the third quarter of 2021, reflecting 145% year-over-year growth. As of September 30, 2022, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term bank deposits of $390 million compared with $322 million as of December 31, 2021; continuously generating positive cash flow.
Full earnings call transcript and presentation on the links below:
Transcript / Audio : seekingalpha.com
Presentation : wp-cdn.perion.com
🕰️ The 4 Pillars of Trading Timeframes🔷Scalping:
Scalping is a trading strategy that involves making multiple quick trades within a short time frame, typically holding positions for just a few minutes. Traders who employ this strategy are referred to as scalpers. The main objective of scalping is to capitalize on small price movements and accumulate small profits that can add up over time. When engaging in scalping, traders focus on short-term charts, such as 1m,5m,15m charts, to identify rapid price fluctuations. They often use technical analysis such as order flow and volume , to spot entry and exit points. The key is to identify highly liquid instruments with tight bid-ask spreads and sufficient volatility. Scalpers must closely monitor their trades and maintain discipline, as the rapid pace of trading can be mentally demanding. Risk management is crucial in scalping and it is advised towards experienced traders that backtest their strategy before taking on scalping.
🔷Day Trading:
Day trading involves executing trades within a single trading day, with all positions closed before the market closes. Day traders aim to profit from intraday price fluctuations and take advantage of short-term trends. This style of trading requires active participation and constant monitoring of the market. Day traders typically use charts with shorter time frames, such as 15m,1h,4h to identify patterns and trends.
🔷Swing Trading:
Swing trading is a medium-term trading strategy that aims to capture price movements over a few days to several weeks. Swing traders seek to profit from short-term price fluctuations within the context of a larger trend. This approach allows traders to participate in more significant market moves while avoiding the need for constant monitoring. Swing traders typically use 1H,5h or daily charts to identify potential trade setups. They focus on technical analysis tools, such as trendlines, chart patterns, and indicators like moving averages or the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The objective is to enter positions when there is a high probability of a trend reversal or continuation.
🔷Positional Trading:
Positional trading, also known as long-term trading or investing, involves holding positions for weeks, months, or even years. Position traders aim to capture larger market trends and ride significant price movements. They often base their decisions on fundamental analysis, considering factors like macroeconomic data, company financials, and market trends.
Position traders primarily use higher time frame charts, such as weekly or monthly charts, to identify long-term trends. They rely on fundamental indicators, news events, and market sentiment to make informed trading decisions.
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Swing setup on EU potential 300+ pipsPrice has given us enough signs that it will continue to go up. I'm just waiting for a pullback into discounted areas to look for longs. Those of you who are experienced can also get in on shorts when the 4H is pulling back to make profit with both longs and shorts
UPDATE: Week Commencing Feb 6 GBPJPY Outlook: Still long UPDATE: WC0206 GBPJPY Outlook: Still long until DTF LL is broken
MTF Analysis
Check annotations in the anchored notes for M-W-D-H4-H1 analysis.
I've updated GJ's outlook for this week from the last one published in January -- specifically the Weekly Anchored Note
Weekly Timeframe Outlook
Sun,1/22/23 -
Bearish downtrend
UPDATE:
Mon, 2/6/23
1. WC 30 Jan weekly candle ended up being a lower high. A 120 pip rejection wick from December's low.
2. There is a weekly and monthly imbalance that is coinciding with
- December's 50% level (almost)
- January's high
- Previous week's high
- This is supported by the 200 EMA (Daily TF) as it will be tapping it / be under it.
Weekly BIAS:
1. Price is bullish until it reaches/ taps #2's confluence areas.
2. Once it taps #2 conf areas, it will melt until it reaches January's low (which is also coinciding with the last Daily TF lower low) -- price will tap this daily and monthly conf area and then it will rocket and resume the bullish trend that it has been having.
ON THE FLIP SIDE.
1. The last low of the Daily TF. 155.39 X January low -- if price pierces that level and continues all the way down then it may just melt until the next monthly key level which is around 150.75
2. It may just continue the uptrend all the way at least to the M&W trendline
FUNDAMENTAL HIGH IMPACT NEWS FOR GJ FEB AND MARCH
Date Country & Event
2023, February 07, 08:01 (United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance
2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM
2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Employment Change
2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change
2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate
2023, February 15, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY
2023, February 16, 07:50 (Japan) Balance of Trade
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
2023, February 21, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
2023, February 21, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
2023, February 24, 08:01 (United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence
2023, March 01, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
2023, March 02, 13:00 (Japan) Consumer Confidence
2023, March 03, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
2023, March 07, 08:01 (United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
2023, March 10, 11:00 (Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision
2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM
2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance
2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate
2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change
2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Employment Change
2023, March 16, 07:50 (Japan) Balance of Trade
2023, March 22, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY
2023, March 23, 20:00 (United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision
2023, March 24, 07:30 (Japan) Inflation Rate YoY
2023, March 24, 08:01 (United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
2023, March 24, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
2023, March 24, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
YOU : POSITION TRADEClear Secure: Talk About A Bullish Economic Moat
• Clear Secure is capturing strong demand for its identity verification platform as a service to save time at security checkpoints.
• Partnerships with airports, airlines and even the Transportation Security Administration highlight competitive advantages to drive growth.
• An outlook for accelerating earnings can send the stock higher.
• Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Conviction Dossier get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.
Clear Secure, Inc. (NYSE:YOU) offers a secure identity verification platform. If you've recently traveled through one of 46 major airports, you'll likely have seen the "Clear" checkpoints as a separate lane in the security process. Clear Pass focuses on the ID verification side of the airport screening process. The other step is the actual security area where travelers and carry-on luggage are checked for contraband.
With the company's history going back more than a decade, the game changer now is a belief that the operation has finally reached a critical mass with enough locations where the service can make sense to a wide range of travelers. This concept is related to the network effect where the value of the service grows as its user base expands.
Furthermore, the platform is being utilized in other applications where security screening is a requirement and there is room to capture efficiencies in the process. Members of Clear Plus also have the option to use the features at entertainment venues and stadiums where a security line often forms.
Clear also offers a Health Pass which gained prominence during the pandemic with validation of COVID testing results and digitization of vaccine status that many types of business in certain areas embrace. Notably, this feature now integrates with Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) "Health App".
YOU Key Metrics
YOU released its Q3 earnings in mid-November with EPS of $0.05, which beat estimates by $0.05 as consensus was looking for a flat result. Revenue of $116 million climbed by 72% year-over-year, with the strength largely driven by the recovery of the airline industry compared to pandemic disruptions at the start of 2021. Management notes success with in-airport and various partner channels driving memberships captured in a climbing number of bookings along with retention of customers.
On the financial side, keep in mind that there was a GAAP loss of -$65.6 million although this mostly reflected share-based compensation and the timing of the vesting from previously issued warrants. More favorably, the underlying shift towards profitability is evidenced by the adjusted EBITDA measure which reached $11.9 million compared to negative -$14.5 million in the period last year. The company also reported a positive free cash flow of $5.3 million.
The expectation is that earnings will maintain this more positive momentum going forward. For Q4, management is guiding for revenue of around $124 million, implying a growth rate of 54% compared to Q4 2021, and up 7% on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
Finally, we can mention Clear Secure maintains a solid balance sheet, ending the quarter with $700 million in cash and cash equivalents against effectively zero long-term financial debt. The position is strong enough that the Board of Directors declared a special $0.25 dividend which was paid in December.
Are There Risks?
The key for the company will be to maintain the pace of signups for new members while finding success in international markets. Longer-term, Clear Secure will need to become the global standard for secure identity verification not just in travel, but also leisure, and other industries with a visible presence in more and more countries as part of the bullish case.
The other side to the discussion would be the risk that growth simply begins to disappoint while the expected earnings fail to materialize. One concern is that the company may have already captured the "low-hanging fruit" of hard-core heavy business travelers where the Clear Pass makes the most sense, at least from the U.S. market. By this measure, doubling the number of cumulative platform users from here will be more difficult.
There is also an argument that if "everyone" is using Clear/TSA PreCheck, it begins to defeat the purpose of a priority security lane membership. It's not there yet but could become a problem at certain airports if the platform is too successful. Going further, a skeptic would also point to the regulatory risks where the service no longer becomes viable based on changing laws in the future or even in a scenario of a headline-making failure in the system that would undermine confidence in the company's security protocol.
Read more on :
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Dan Victor, CFA, Seeking Alpha, Jan. 05, 2023 3:19 PM ET
EURCAD I Position swing short from monthlyWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**EURCAD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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AUD NZD - Buying potential, awaiting further movesG'day traders and welcome to 2023 for a new position trade which is in the works.
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones.
This is tagged Long due to the overall monthly demand in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. This is an active trade, now traders can use this for looking at new zones to purchase from.
Monthly timeframe
The monthly shows a strong test of the structure back in 2013 - where price has tested the September 2013 monthly candle 'close'.
Since this structure high, price has had a strong sell off with a large engulfing sell. Review below for the breakdown from the Fresh nested supply towards the demand zone.
Monthly updated
The monthly FL demand has been activated upon the fresh level.
Weekly Timeframe
Weekly Updated
November 15 and 21st were the key weeks here for the imbalance formation. This departure zone has aligned with the wick formation and will be netted out (at some point). This point has now arrived and price has created a weekly candle which had given the false flag for a final selling push on the weekly. The subsequent week had offered strong buying power with a three day confirmation of the demand FL taking a reactive control. The monthly TL had 'created a bear trap' which the final profit taking has now converted into a new buying imbalance.
Four Day in conjunction with Fibonacci extension (sells in play, awaiting buys)
The four day has shown the similar zone which aligns nicely with the weekly.
Note- here that price has provided a clear sell off which has broken through and on the daily provided a break and retest. This would be the moment for a secondary sell could be placed with a confirmation on the lower timeframe(s).
Again structure provides a retest of the previous 'resistance' zone which aligns nicely with the End of August zone.
Daily Chart
Awaiting the reactive tap and then a further confirmation using the 8 hour or daily if preferred.
Price may not reach the desired Daily, three day cross imbalance zone.
Upon a confirm - if price fails to provide engulfing moves - then expect a final push to complete the structure pattern within the arrival imbalance.
From here, price will need to test the curve and break the high curve allowing long term trades to take place.
Updated -
After waiting for the monthly TL to be crossed - price has now offered a strong rejection level.
Price has created a fresh demand level and even stronger engulfing candle which departed using the strategy eclipsing the previous candle closes - allowing a fresh pivot to be formed in line with structure left and the TL break and retest.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets
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Focus on investing for long term positional moves
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
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EURAUD Investment Plan - 4/Jan/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect EURAUD to go Down.
I am still looking for additional confirmation to be sure about this down move, however, one can obviously take the trade if their strategy allows.
The objective of this idea is to share that the Long term SELL is probably gonna be coming next for this pair.
Look for your SELL setups.
Considering the fact that there are also traders looking for ideas wrt investment purpose, I will be posting my view on few assets for Long term trades.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea
High Risk, Long Term Carry Trade! TRYJPY!This is my high risk, long term carry trade for 2023 (opened in 2022, looking to add to my position further).
The swap rate is very attractive - to provide some insight, I have received a 3% account increase since opening my first long position in 2022, through daily interest receivables.
The Fundamentals... Turkey has potential. Exports are climbing. The country needs more stability and greater global confidence - Turkey is greatly lacking both. I believe that the currency is so heavily short, that any sign of monetary policy change could cause the Lira to rocket. Potentially creating some large volatile upside moves.
With the possibility of a global recession, the Lira could also see buying momentum, as emerging markets often perform well during times of international recession.
Current Technical Reasons... Price is nearing all-time lows and daily horizontal support. TRYJPY is also testing bearish channel support area.
Don't get me wrong, the Lira could fall much further - it has been in extreme decline for around 15 years! This is considered a high risk trade.
Xauusd ShortThe beautiful price structure of gold is being prepared for a very profitable short-selling position and I will enter the sell from the specified range.
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According to my risk and capital management system, the risk of each trade is one percent per position.
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What symbol would you like me to analyze for you?