EUR USD - It might be timeHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Euro USD monthly imbalances
These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 1.25 to be a structural level for the Euro against the Dollar.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 1.235XX.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a lower high, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Breakout traders will be looking for a quick scalp and also hedging traders will be in place here.
Here is the link to the privatised idea
Euro - Weekly imbalances
The weekly and monthly imbalance are both here within the same zone, therefore the zone is marked with a monthly inefficiency zone.
Looking at the weekly it is clear this zone is a strong imbalance zone where just like the USD JPY - the monthly zones have shown a great amount of respect. Subject to the weekly higher low which took place, the hammer signal here on the weekly indicates a great opportunity to understand that the sell off is beginning.
EURO Daily and Weekly chart side by side
Using the daily and weekly structure – the move was identified early – with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the monthly time frame, referring to the high firstly at 1.254XX. Why will traders look to sell here? – It is a simple buy trap for retail traders and scalpers. Traders in the short term can win big and of course anything is possible in trading. The pattern which has clearly emerged though from my analysis shows
I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency.
II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency.
The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required.
US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first
U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence.
Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the
Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation
Mirrors Edge
EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours.
With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated.
Correlation:
USD CHF - Green
Look closely on the weekly imbalances - where price has created two opportunistic weekly imbalances where profits will be taken [ Marked in orange] . USD CHF will a an inverse trade, however taking this can double exposure so ensure one pair is traded here.
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Positiontrade
"GBPUSD" Longas we can see illustrated above we have broke out of the downward trendline for this pair and what this means is that we should look at the next zone of co-influence which in our case it will be our second touch of the trendline at 1.7000-1.72300 , in short based on the monthly look for longing opportunities but these will be clear after we create the new monthly low which should be around 1.346xx which is in line with a zone that hasnt been fully retested!!!
AUD USD still pushing to 0.80
The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first.
The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months.
However, with the year end - we will now look for two scenarios -
1. Price will revert back using the Fib retracement - looking at a new high low to form before a further bullish movement to the Aussie towards 0.80 - .
2. Price will continue to flow with minimal setbacks with a high probability of a weaker USD - due to the stimulus and presidential change, with new reforms to boost the economy again tumbling the Dollar.
Now the trend is moving, looking to see a weak dollar maintained in 2021 so this will be great for the Aussie.
Remember any bearish news on the world will see a rush to the USD, however with the US attempting to remove the safehaven asset for investors, expect a good move for the Aussie to see bullish movements.
LINKUSDT technical chypher pattern ~ Position projection• Technical analysis regarding the price of CHAINLINK for the next scenarios, based on daily movement.
• The price comes in an upward trend, with higher tops, made its correction, returned to form an ascending top and made another correction, which can be analyzed by the cypher graphic pattern, where the projected price for this bullish reversal is at 19.784, there may be strong momentum in these moments of the altseasons.
disclaimer
*** This is not a recommendation to purchase and/or sale. It is for educational purposes only. ***
GBP JPY - Brexit 'Deal' scenarioHello,
With current events and fresh levels looking likely on Monthly timeframes - we can see GBP & XXX major, minor pairs to see heavy movement for appreciation for Sterling.
As the UK is seeing the vaccination being used from Monday, most likely and last minute negotiations for Brexit.
If the parties can agree a deal at all, the surgence of relief will allow buyers or GBP USD and EUR USD to surge in order to high monthly highs and create a fresh zone.
Alternatively,
Where a sell scenario - expect the previous depreciated low to be the bottom out scenario.
The EU & UK, ideally want a deal - as this steadies recovery and while creates barriers, it also loosens barriers at the same time from a lobbyist perspective and in terms of acting rapidly in response to change.
Keep a look out for Key levels - where price can consolidate.
The higher timeframes show us the direction where price has a distinct probability of where price will move.
Let's await.
Many thanks,
Team Lupa
GBP JPY - Shorts still in playHey traders, how are you going?
Here is our take on GBP JPY - a long term view.
The eyes - are sell targets
The eyes - are potential buy zones.
it depends on your outlook.
Why are we selling?
The reason is - over exposed buyers, the GBP is very week right now
Seeking trade deals and the weakening of the GBP is clever for the trade balance and promoting attraction for investment in the long run.
Price is expensive and volatile - during the election and huge interest in the previous months up to September.
The election is coming closer <45 days.
The S&P500 and NAS100, FTSE are not shown here but use reference for our previous ideas to show where price has reached our over exposed markers.
Entering a bear market - the Yen will see sudden surging in strength which is why our outlook is to March lows.
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Updates on our pairs as and when we can.
Swing trade out looks
10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced .
KISS - keep it simple stupid.
we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise.
If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes.
Thanks,
Team Lupa
GERMANY 30A bearish divergence is spotted as the indicator RSI (14) is making lower highs while price is making higher highs approaching the zone. This implies that the bulls are getting tired and selling pressure will soon get it.
Because this is a daily time frame, we will have to be patient enough for price to come back to the entry on chart and set take profit 1, 2 and 3 as shown.
EUR USD vs DXY - shortHello Traders and analysts,
We are currently in sells -
Here is our take on EUR USD - weekly chart
We added the DXY for reference in Blue
The eyes - are sell targets
The eyes - are potential buy zones.
it depends on your outlook.
The US - will be pivotal for investors during the election process.
EU - concerned about over valued currency in 2020 as they look to unwind the Brexit divorce.
Looking at the key markings, the blue level shows us a strong monthly top - where price will look to either retest or fall back to 1.10 - a most likely scenario, with the probabilities in play.
DXY- if the euro attempts 1.19 area, the DXY will respond to 92.XX and then push up.
We tend to hold trades for a while and de-risk in terms of leverage - this is important. It is also crucial to ignore ideas which conflict against the trading plan set out.
Why follow us?
Updates on our pairs as and when we can.
Swing trade out looks
10 years combined experience in capital markets
simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced .
KISS - keep it simple stupid.
we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise.
If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes.
Thanks,
Team Lupa
SPX500 update The sell off, or correction has begun.
Now we are at an interest area now where for the second weekly candle close is bearish. Now to some this is a healthy correction or to others the start of a bearish crash prone to a host of reason which we have explained before.
We are continuing to hold short positions - again the long term here is to hold to the low of March and beyond [if price shows us a structure to add positions along the way down.
The window of opportunity to sell is between August - November - think of the fundamentals attached - that and a newly tested area below to retest.
We must note - in order to be successful here
patience is key
Risk management on the trade is pivotal and once enough in profit - put stop loss to breakeven.
Please see related the ideas for our longterm outlook:
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Please leave your thoughts and analysis to why you agree or not.
To our followers, many thanks for the support.
Team Lupa.
GBPAUD Long term analysisHello Traders,it's been a while since I uploaded an idea. Kindly like this idea if you love it and leave your thoughts in the comment section
I feel the smart money are playing in the range on the Great British Pound/Australian Dollar pair. We can see a stop hunt to the upside trapping early buyers and stopping out shorts. It has now broken out of the range into an OB+Bullish breaker where we could expect to see higher prices
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GNTBTC Flagging prep for breakout GNTBTC - Looking for new entry after taking profit on the first break out of consolidation. I'm still very bullish on this one long term.
Waiting for a BCR of the flag & resistance. Trading on the daily but watching on the 4hour for bullish momentum.
I'm bullish on this long term because of the project as well as the total and circulating supply.
About Golem
Golem (GNT) is a peer-to-peer decentralized marketplace for computing power. The project aims to be an alternative to centralized cloud service providers with its lower price point and open-source community of developers. The Golem network pools global computing power and enables users to access these resources with GNT. Token holders pay resource owners to complete tasks requiring computational resources. The network is composed of the aggregated power of user devices. Golem is reportedly able to compute tasks that run the gamut from CGI rendering to machine learning. Transactions between participants are deemed to be safe because computations take place in sandbox environments that are sequestered from hosts’ systems.
Source: coinmarketcap
GNTBTC Long term long opportunity showing the bulls have arrivedGNTBTC
Good long term opportunity.
Been in consolidation for a few months, creating a W formation within the channel. Completion of this pattern is happening now.
Last night we poked above my area of interest at around 772 and I’m now looking for a solid bodied candle close above this area and then a retest on the daily which is where I will take an entry. EMA’s have crossed bullish and started to turn up also, giving me confidence in this trade.
Many targets along the way from 68-over 570% potential profit. Will reassess at each level.
GBTC POSITION TRADEGBTC POSITION TRADE
Narrative, Use Cases, and Addressable Market can be found on the following link (pages 74-80):
www.slideshare.net
Position Trade:
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) enables investors to gain exposure to the price movement of Bitcoin through a traditional investment vehicle, without the challenges of buying, storing, and safekeeping Bitcoin.
grayscale.co
From a technical analysis perspective, a consolidation from the break of its major trend line indicates a beginning of an uptrend. Bitcoin is currently finding support above its 10-day moving average price. With all moving averages pointing up, it also indicates that a longer-term uptrend may well be in place.
Fibonacci Price Extension indicates a potential price target close to its previous years high, suggesting a 24%-29% profit potential from its current price on the short to medium term. But considering that this may just be the beginning of a long term uptrend, multiple profits on future set-ups can be made if/when it continues to find support above its 50-day moving average. Triggers for entering a trade include acceleration of On-Balance Volume which signals an increase in buying pressure pushing the price higher, and ADX accelerating to 30 which indicates a build-up on the momentum of price action.
LTCUSD just broke out if its long term downtrendLTCUSD
Just broke out of its long term downtrend on the weekly TF, great long term long opportunity IMO.
We’ve broken and retested previous resistance
Massive bullish volume
HH & HL’s
And with BTC and ETH pushing up to all time highs, LTC is sure to follow. Multiple take profit levels from a potential 53% to 500% if we get back to where we were in 2018!
I’m now looking for a pullback to hopefully around $51 to get my entry but my do staggered entries between $51-$56 and will hold this until at least the first target of $79 for a potential 30% minimum gain.