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DXY Bearish Longterm.Back in May of 2002 price created an imbalance in price for Dollar Index (Monthly Chart). Price had only participated in sell-side delivery, leaving behind buy-side inefficiency. Since that time price has returned to that Monthly SIBI (Sell-side Imbalance, Buy-side Inefficiency. Fully closing the imbalance, making price completely balanced. From that strong Point of Interest, price has reacted aggressively to the downside. It is of my opinion that the Dollar Index is long-term bearish. Short-term i'm under the opinion that the Dollar Index is Bullish, and heres why. Last month price dipped into another monthly imbalance in price...to the upside. I believe this is the first retracement leg for the overall Long-term bearish move. I am bullish DXY until price reaches equilibrium of the most recent monthly range swing high and swing low. Primarily I would like to see price retrace to the .62 FIB for what I believe to be an Optimal Trade Entry. Perfect for Position and Swing traders. For Day Traders/Intraday Traders, I will be anticipating price moving lower to attack sell-side liquidity, then take price all the way up to the level prior mentioned. Ultimately I will buying into the sell. What this means for me is that I will be firstly selling Foreign Currencies paired with the Dollar (i.e. EU, GU, AU etc...) to later buy them once DXY reaches the specified Point of Interest. (.50 FIB/.62FIB or a close of the Monthly -FVG) I hope this idea helps you with your trading. Bless.
TVC:DXY
by chaarate
USD CAD - Fibonacci Day sequence completeHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. See the original idea: USD CAD - Longs positions active AUD USD - USD CAD - Fibonacci Pattern work Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalance Weekly Imbalances Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close. The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable. 1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested. 2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later. Further explanation: 3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Cross asset relationship between asset crosses Purple - XAU USD Dark Blue - US500 The reason for showing this chart here is with Canada and US both contributing to the top ten countries in output for the commodity. The Correlation of using Gold against the Standard & Poors 500 index shows the inverse of the US dollar imbalance as opposed to the SPX bullish imbalances. Gold is on a correctional imbalance as the Metal is cross correlated using a global investor asset whereas the focus on SPX is focused on the U.S markets. Monthly View USD CAD relationship with US OIL and EUR USD. Again here is another cross asset whereby Oil heavily produced by the USA and Canada a like. The EUR USD and Oil are both on bullish imbalances, however the imbalance on EUR USD has been confirmed and identified . Purple - EUR USD Dark Blue - US OIL The weekly view and monthly are key to providing inverse correlations and look for pivot , fractals on higher timeframes. In order to fully comprehend why these are crosses are key, looking into the chart shows key structural areas which on USD CAD can show a long probability. However on the Oil chart, can show an identified Selling probability. I. Weekly view Weekly view Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Weekly - Fibonacci extension Daily Fibonacci The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe. A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern. USD CAD vs DXY What does this show here? Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe. With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak. This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break. Analysis breakdown: The chart below shows that a cross-asset comparison compares USD/CAD - Grey USOIL - Orange AUDUSD - Pink Dollar Index - Blue These are based on the weekly timeframe and without adding imbalances - the price lines both have noticeable - negative correlation and align to the imbalances upon the monthly. (charted in light blue). American Treasury rates are going higher. When they will rise depends partially on the US labor market and partially on inflation. Janet Yellon needs to remain vigilant on the inflation status where bottlenecks are re-opening of the economy. However, price imbalances in commodities have a lot of upside remaining. So lookout for rate hikes. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
3
GBP JPY - Testing the weekly imbalance? or down to 141?Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances and also a probability of a sell off. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note - I am an imbalance trader and long term setups will beat the short term. While short term trades are taken, the overall picture is more important. Therefore less is more. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is the weekly imbalance below - where price has comfortably retraced from the monthly imbalance zone. Previous analysis to this; What does the imbalance show? With the highs of 156.XX creating a needed retracement upon a pivot point - the monthly imbalance has been successfully filled. From here using confirmations - shorts were placed to hedge and override long positions. The weekly has created successfully - lower lows - meaning that price is looking to correct. Now where is a good take profit point or where is a strong area to add buys upon the imbalance? Scenario I Using the Bullish scenario - where price will test the weekly imbalance between 151-148 - noting a opportunity to add longs from here. Price has a fresh weekly zone - which is in this area. The pivot point will need to touch the imbalance and reject successfully. Daily imbalances Here is the daily imbalances - where prices has established three zones - where the monthly and weekly have created a as explained above, the lower lows. Price did create a low, and a retracement creating a further daily imbalance which was also the 50%-61.8% The price targets complete the pattern at estimated 148.3XX subject to price taking us to this imbalance point. Bearish scenario Where price is rejecting the 156 - price can fall to a potential low - towards 141. This is due to the heavy bullish imbalance which was established back in November 2020. Price had created a reversion point - and from here the imbalance had tested the rising channel - creating a huge opportunity. With imbalances - price can and will move back to retest the lower imbalance. Despite the overall *3month chart - producing a bullish consensus, the pattern can be a longer term buy. Where price has a probability of breaking the weekly imbalance - the chance of the price continuing is likely. Again this is using probabilities. Fibonacci - Daily Using the Fibonacci upon the daily timeframe, assists with looking for imbalances and confirms reaction points which aligns near levels which are of interest (by looking left). Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. The 16 hour chart above shows some key levels marked by the Yellow line markings show the correlation between the asset prices using GBP as a positive and XAU as a negative. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances. Current cross analysis Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as well as the correctional move for Gold. Here is the multi-time frame analysis showing the eight hour imbalance currently being filled. The probability for this to continue moving toward the range top is clearly on the side of the move completion. XAU USD - weekly looks interesting in terms of a correlation aspect. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
2
Weekly Hedge Position Idea Nzd/UsdHello Traders, Here you can find my weekly trade ideas (unconventional fundamental trading Style, not that what most People know as "Normal"). They mainly serve to achieve a possible learning effect or to show other perspectives how other traders set their positions and act, should be very interesting. The focus is on the "point of view" (learning through seeing). All trades amount to Fundamental, Economical, Mathematical, - Technical information. In the 4 years that I have been trading now, I have simply learned that the trades are only as good as the information that is based on them, the higher the density of information, the better and more likely that the trade will work. Every week on Sunday there is an update, because new information is published over the period. Depending on how these end, the trade is either closed "early" or it continues on its way towards TP (Take Profit). CRV (opportunity-risk ratio) is ALWAYS 1 to 3. Trading style includes hedge and trend based swing trading and position trading approaches. Please use your own criteria (entry, exit,etc.) and don't be a copy, otherwise it won't work, find out which style suits to you. My Trades are always Market Entry, like you can see. Enjoy. Have a nice Week :)
Long
by JR_Tradingideas
$XHV Looking StrongAfter the recent sell-off with Bitcoin a lot of the Altcoins dumped and have been on sale. Haven Protocol recently bounced off of strong support and is one of stronger ones in my portfolio. This also has some confluence with the bullish MACD crossover. This technical support will need to have some more volume to break the local top of Haven's mainnet release. We are now entering what the dev team is calling a multi-week "Announcement Season." If Bitcoin, maintains above $10k and pushes back up then this will coincide nicely with the "Announcement Season" making for a new yearly high and resuming price discovery. What do you think? Cheers!
XLong
by Slamminammon
AUD/NZD Short Bias IdeaRecently we've seen AUD/NZD gain a nice bull trend from its lows at 1.03549 with a 300+ pip move to the upside. Currently price is testing the 1.06950 zone with a triple top in play. Al-thought on the lower time-frames we've had a nice bullish trend, I'm still playing this trend on the short side based on the weekly trend being under the 200 EMA at this very moment and price is testing the area of the 200 EMA on the weekly. In the coming days / weeks I'll be looking for selling pressure or evidence price wants to come to the downside.
Short
by fxjoe_