Canopy leads MJ sector bounceQuick updates tonight.
CGC saw a 10% bounce from the low of the day today and after the first 30 minutes, gave a whole lot of nothing. We spent the rest of the day inside an hourly equilibrium that we're waiting on the break of for either bounce continuation or on another leg down to potentially lower lows.
The end of the day saw SPY with big bull move finishing up near the high of the day on the strength of both the tech sector and financial sector, while Canadian MJ was unable to derive any momentum from the this move. That does give some reason for concern with bulls being so close to resistance but unable to break it.
Tomorrow first thing the bulls want to break our two hourly resistances in order to see bounce continuation. Failure to do so a second time would be a red flag.
Key levels:
Support: 33.05
Resistance: 34.47, 34.92
If the bulls find the momentum to break this range and see continuation on the hourly bounce, we would look for a 4hr lower high compared to 40.00. However there is a lack of resistance after 34.92 so could see some nice follow through
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
Potstocks
Aurora nears daily oversoldACB continued its recent pattern of lower lows, dumping the whole day and closing down over 16% in one of the most stand-out bearish days this sector has seen. There is no doubt in my mind this weakness is in large part to the overall stock market dumping for the past four weeks, so be sure to keep an eye on the correlation to SPY. We've now given back 80% of the run up from August 14th to all time high over the past 10 trading days.
Where we stand, Aurora has a lack of support here. Regular readers know I anticipated a bounce before our key weekly level 7.65, which we broke today by 10 cents. This was very unlikely to happen, which speaks to just how weak this chart is. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since August 14th. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce.
Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future?
RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at or near historical bounce levels:
Daily - 30
4hr - 21
1hr - 21
If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until the CGC bounce starts....which will not start until the S&P bounce starts.
If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Aurora, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for ACB.
I'm looking at the 1hr chart right now for our levels. We remain in a downtrend with clear lower highs and lower lows
Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation
Support: low of day 7.55, 6.67, 6.07
Resistance: 9.38, 9.88, 10.07
While Canopy and Aphria have a lack of resistance once they clear their two levels, Aurora has many more resistance levels to deal with.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
Aphria nears daily oversoldAPH followed Canopy Growth's lead breaking its 4hr equilibrium bearish, and shortly later confirmed the daily bear flag, dumping the rest of the day closing down over 17% in one of the most stand-out bearish days this sector has seen. There is no doubt in my mind this weakness is in large part to the overall stock market dumping for the past four weeks, so be sure to keep an eye on the correlation to SPY. We've now given back almost 70% of the run up from August 14th to legalization over the past 10 trading days.
Where we stand, Aphria has a lack of support here. Regular readers know we long ago lost the daily and weekly uptrends. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since August 14th. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce.
Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future?
RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at or near historical bounce levels:
Daily - 34
4hr - 28
1hr - 23
If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until the CGC bounce starts....which will not start until the S&P bounce starts.
If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Aphria, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for APH.
I'm looking at the 4hr chart right now for our levels. We remain in a downtrend with clear lower highs and lower lows
Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation
Support: low of day 12.60, 11.98, 11.68
Resistance: 16.77, 17.33
After 17.33 there is a lack of resistance to 20.69 though I don't anticipate we bounce that hard.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
Canopy Growth nears daily oversoldCGC today broke its 4hr equilibrium bearish, and shortly later confirmed the daily bear flag, dumping the rest of the day closing down almost 15% in one of the most stand-out bearish days this sector has seen. There is no doubt in my mind this weakness is in large part to the overall stock market dumping for the past four weeks, so be sure to keep an eye on the correlation to SPY. We've now given back 75% of the run up from August 14th to all time high in the past 10 trading days.
Where we stand, Canopy has a lack of support here. We're closing in on the daily MA200 at 31.32, and have price action supports at 30.20 and 29.05. The gap to fill from before the Constellation investment announcement is down at 26.37. Regular readers know we long ago lost the daily and weekly uptrends. I've been watching this descending wedge pattern for the RSI for weeks at this point, and after a false breakout it has now dumped through the bottom of the wedge, backtested former support as resistance, and dropped to lower lows. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since June 6th 2017. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce.
Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future?
RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at historical bounce levels:
Daily - 31
4hr - 27
1hr - 22
If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until S&P bounce starts.
If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Canopy, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for CGC.
I'm looking at the 4hr chart right now for our levels. We've been in a downtrend for two weeks at this point with lower highs and lower lows
Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation
Support: low of day 32.31, MA200 31.32, 30.20, 29.05
Resistance: 40, 41.06, 42.43
After 42.43 there is a lack of resistance to 48.13
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
APH in a 4hr wide equilibrium APH is in a similar boat to Canopy right now, stuck inside a 4hr equilibrium. The range here is 18%, over twice as large as the range Canopy finds itself inside. We are seeing the MACD start to curl upwards for the first time in quite a while, and we are patiently waiting for our higher low to be set relative to 14.11.
APH has also bounced off of the golden pocket retrace from the low of its August consolidation to its recent highs. In my opinion, this chart is just waiting (along with the rest of the sector) for Canopy to make a break of it's right range.
Key levels for Monday
Support: 16.77
Resistance: 14.11
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks.
APH well positioned for a sector-wide bull breakAPH is also in a 4hr equilibrium, the break of which will give us clues to either further sell off or to the low of the dump being in.
I'm looking at support of 14.11 and resistance of 17.33. Our lower high may be set at 16.77 but I'm not yet convinced by this.
A break of 14.11 and we're looking down to 13.76. A break of resistance and we have a lack of resistance on the daily up until 20.69. Watch the Middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart as a likely profit target, as price tends to reject the first test of this level. That's currently at 17.69. Update that level each day.
The daily setup here is a bear flag, I need to see a bull break of the equilibrium to negate the bear flag. The bull volume does stand out on Aphria, however the direction CGC breaks will likely dictate how the rest of the sector breaks.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
ACB trying to hand on waiting for Canopy's breakAurora has a much weaker setup, and looks clearest to me on the hourly chart. Unlike Canopy, Aurora has broken down to lower lows although bulls are still buying the dip so far. Friday closed with weakness heading back down towards the end of the day. We remain in a clear hourly downtrend with lower highs of resistance on each little bounce.
The bear breaks on the hourly chart have so far been met with little followthrough as Canopy remains in its equilibrium. This correlation favours the Aurora bears; if Canopy breaks bearish, Aurora is well positioned for greater downside because of how much weaker the chart currently is.
ACB is also down close to the golden pocket retrace from the low of its August consolidation to new all time high, but has broken below the .65 unlike other names with stronger setups
Key levels for Monday
Support: 9.00
Resistance: 9.88
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks.
CGC equilibrium on watch for MondayHeading into next week I'm still watching CGC in a 4hr equilibrium. Our key support is a double bottom of 37.32 and 37.35. Canopy finished the day with some weakness looking down towards that level after setting a lower high of 40.37, our new key resistance to break.
We can see the 12EMA on the 4hr driving the price down continually since the all time high on Oct 16th. Bulls need to break above 40.37 and close above that 12EMA in order to get this bounce underway, where we would look to set a lower high on the daily timeframe. The strength of this bounce will give us clues on what to expect next.
I'm watching the potential for hidden bearish RSI divergence with the indicator making higher highs and the price making lower highs; however the MACD has started to curl upwards a bit giving a conflicting signal. Further, when turning off extended hours on the 4hr chart, the bull volume does seem greater than the bear volume.
I have pulled a fib on the daily chart from the low of August consolidation to the all time high, and notice that we bounced right off the .65 retracement. That golden pocket range is a high profitability zone to enter into a long position for resumption of an uptrend, and for anybody who has entered position in the past few days based on this indicator, be certain to have a stop loss set for the appropriate level on the bear break of this 4hr eq - if your plan is to exit the trade on a bear break, that is.
I'm still not holding any position in the sector, patiently waiting for this downtrend to change and for much more favourable trading conditions. This equilibrium should break Monday and give us some short term direction. The sector at large will likely following CGC on the direction of its break. Until that break comes, I'm being very patient and waiting to re-enter a position.
Key levels for Monday
Support: 37.32
Resistance: 40.37
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY -1.76% market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks.
Aurora the weakest of the big 3ACB is the weakest 4hr setup of the three names I typically follow in the mj sector. We're in a 4hr equilibrium but the bulls are not giving any confidence here, having failed to even set a lower high the way Canopy and Aphria already have. support to hold is 9.14 and resistance is 11.29.
A break of 9.14 support area and we're looking down towards 9 psychological, and then 8.64.
A break of 11.29 resistance and we're looking to set a daily lower high, compared to 14.36. I'd be watching the Middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart as a likely profit target, as price tends to reject the first test of this level. That's currently at 12.43. Update that level each day.
The addition of ACB to the NYSE opens it up to a whole new class of people who can short the stock. I didn't realize that OTC tickers could not be shorted. This could explain for the much greater weakness in this name.
The direction CGC breaks will likely dictate how the rest of the sector breaks. I'll be looking to play the more bullish names on a bull break, and I'll be looking to play the weaker names like ACB on a bear break.
The daily setup here is a bear flag, I need to see a bull break of the equilibrium to negate the bear flag. IF we get a bull break, it would almost certainly not happen tomorrow, but next week instead.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
CGC searching for a new base of supportThe post-legalization sell-off may or may not be over, and I'm watching CGC 4 hour chart for clues. We're in a 4hr equilibrium and the support to hold is 37.32 and resistance is 41.06.
A break of 37.32 and we're looking down towards 36.62 low of the dump and then 30.20.
A break of 41.06 resistance and we're looking to set a daily lower high, compared to the all time high. First resistance is 42.43 and then a lack of resistance because of the aggression of the dump. I would have a target in the area of the daily Middle Bollinger Band, currently at 47.42. Update that level each day.
The MACD is currently curling upward, if we break bullish out of this range I will need to see a more convincing MACD cross to feel confident.
The direction CGC breaks will likely dictate how the rest of the sector breaks.
The daily setup here is a bear flag, and being mindful of this I will only attempt to bottomfish very close to the low of this equilibrium, otherwise I'll wait for the break to negate the bear flag.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY 1.79% market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
Y no clear pathBearish everything MJ but tlry no speaky clear path. Patience will be key. Bullish and bearish target represented by black lines.
$CGC $WEED ABC correction down to 200dma So the entire cannabis sector is getting absolutely hammered after the Canadian full legalization "event" on October 19, 2018. This "event" is a non-event in my view as there is/was no new information brought to the surface. All info was known ahead of time. Therefore the correction of the recent rally is fully warranted.
What I am seeing is that from the August lows of ~$24.46 on a pre-earnings dump we had a 5 wave run to a pre-Oct19'18 high of ~$59.34. I think a plausible scenario is that there is a significant ABC correction. (A) may take prices to the 0.382 retrace or perhaps the previous 2018 swing highs around $36.00. The (B) wave rally may coincide with a run to the 0.618 and the 50dma in the $46.00 range ultimately failing and giving us the (C) wave down to the 0.236 of the August to October move which could coincide with the 200dma when it occurs.
I am going to assume that $CGC $WEED will remain the leader in the sector and the other names will largely correlate in time.
CGC at risk of losing long time weekly uptrendTaking a different approach today, starting with the long term weekly chart and we're at risk of losing the weekly uptrend that's been intact since July 2017. We're looking at must-hold support of 44.90, the loss of which would break the uptrend. This level will be in play next week. If 44.90 breaks our next support is 10% lower at 40.68, and then there's nothing on the weekly chart until 24.46, however I would expect to find support somewhere in the $37 range close to the Constellation bought deal price from August. We also have the weekly MA20 in that range which should strengthen the support in that area. The weekly candle is a bearish reversal candle and a potential volume climax, this is often a signal of a trend reversal.
Losing 44.90 would break the uptrend but it wouldn't immediately put us into a downtrend, we'd have to wait until we find a bottom, bounce, and then set a lower low to initiate a downtrend. Regardless, a break of this level would be significant.
We're also looking at bearish divergence on the weekly chart, where price action has set a higher high relative to January but RSI has set a lower high. The MACD does not show the same divergence.
"So, what happened this past week?"
This is a question a few people have asked me in person and online over the past 24 hours. Let's go back to the daily chart to look at the setup we had going into last week.
I've annotated the levels we were watching last weekend. Bulls needed a break of 51.21 and bears needed a break of 46.42. First thing Monday we got that break with big volume and a close at the high of the day. In almost every idea I've published over the past few weeks I've been reminding people that the sector has run over 100% in just a few weeks, and that was neither normal nor sustainable. Therefore, we were looking for a sell-the-news reaction to legalization. I was expecting that Wednesday and we got that on Tuesday instead, in the form of a gap up open, a volume climax and a bearish reversal candle. Wednesday and Thursday we saw a weak bounce attempt with a potential daily bear flag setup, with the low of Wednesday a must hold level. When we broke below 48.30 we confirmed that bear flag and confirmed Tuesday's bearish reversal candle.
So for clues on direction we zoom into the hourly chart.
We can see since the initial dump on Tuesday, every bounce has been just a lower high on the hourly. Once we stabilized a little bit we had our range between 48.30 support and 52.87 resistance (annotated with white lines). For me this was a no-touch zone because the action inside tightening ranges is choppy and difficult to play. I we watched as we set a lower high, then a higher low, and another low high (annotated with yellow lines). On Friday we had a clear equilibrium bear break, which was a signal for bulls to jump out and a signal for bears to open short positions. Anybody bull acting on this signal saved themselves over 6% of downside, and any bear acting on this signal had a nice 6% profit on the subsequent dump on Friday.
We bottomed out after 2pm on Friday after touching hourly oversold but the bounce so far is weak and is a potential hourly bear flag setup. That will confirm if we break the low of Friday 45.43. I do anticipate that level to be tested first thing Monday, we can see the bull volume on the bounce is much weaker compared to the bear volume on the dump.
CGC is the sector leader so if it shows continued weakness Monday and Tuesday you can anticipate weakness in other names as well.
If you're the type of person looking years out and holding, you don't care much about the last half of this post but you are very interested in the weekly chart above. If that level breaks you have an opportunity to stop out and look to reload, for example, 10% more shares for 10% cheaper with the same amount of capital. That's one more way you can compound your gains on these positions even when we see consolidation on the longer term charts.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH searching higher low in daily equilibriumTaking a different approach today, starting with the long term weekly chart. APH looks more and more toppy with each passing week with bear volume standing out and upper wicks of profit taking. Bulls were barely able to break the high of last week. Our weekly lower high is now set at 20.96 and the must hold level to maintain the weekly uptrend is 15.76 doublebottom. A break of that level would put us into a weekly downtrend but we are nowhere near at risk of that right now. We do have a longer term trendline crossing our price level just above our weekly support level next week; something to watch if we do fade down to test that low.
"So, what happened this past week?"
This is a question a few people have asked me in person and online over the past 24 hours. Let's go back to the daily chart to look at the setup we had going into last week.
I've annotated the levels we were watching last weekend. Monday we saw APH with the weaker move out of the names I follow. In almost every idea I've published over the past few weeks I've been reminding people that the sector has run over 100% in just a few weeks, and that was neither normal nor sustainable. Therefore, we were looking for a sell-the-news reaction to legalization. I was expecting that Wednesday and we got that on Tuesday instead, in the form of a gap up open, a volume climax and a bearish reversal candle. The low of Wednesday is our daily key level. APH has not yet lost that level, making it a stronger chart than Canopy which broke that level on Friday.
The APH daily chart confirmed the bearish reversal candle from Thursday and rejected from our daily RSI resistance line. The MACD is still weak and the bear volume stands out when compared to the bull volume. I am anticipating a higher low above 16.77 but in the current setup if that level breaks, we would initiate a daily downtrend with a daily lower high and lower low. We have the daily MA50 lining up with that support level; update that line daily. On any bounce I would look for a lower high compared to 20.69. Let's zoom in for more detail.
Looking into the hourly chart we see an hourly bear flag setup. Friday we bottomed out when CGC hit hourly oversold and the sector saw very weak bounces on low volume when compared to the bear volume on the dump. Confirming that bear flag by breaking 17.78 means the bulls have not yet found their 4hr higher low and we will continue to look down towards 16.77 support.
If you're the type of person looking years out and holding, you don't care much about the last half of this post but you are very interested in the weekly chart above. While the weekly trend on APH is not yet at risk Canopy will be testing that level on Monday. This signal from the sector leader gives you an opportunity to stop out and look to reload, for example, 10% more shares for 10% cheaper with the same amount of capital. That's one more way you can compound your gains on these positions even when we see consolidation on the longer term charts.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
Watch ACB 4hr for short term momentumTaking a different approach today, starting with the long term weekly chart. ACB has a bearish reversal candle on the weekly chart and a potential volume climax. The weekly trend is not at risk of being lost anytime soon because of how hard we have run up. Our weekly support currently is at 7.65 and now that we've lost the daily uptrend we are in search of a new weekly support level. We have support with weekly MA20 and MA50 in the low $9 range. Update these levels weekly.
"So, what happened this past week?"
This is a question a few people have asked me in person and online over the past 24 hours. Let's go back to the daily chart to look at the setup we had going into last week.
Monday we saw continuation of the daily breakout from the previous Friday and finished strong at the high of the day. In almost every idea I've published over the past few weeks I've been reminding people that the sector has run over 100% in just a few weeks, and that was neither normal nor sustainable. Therefore, we were looking for a sell-the-news reaction to legalization. I was expecting that Wednesday and we got that on Tuesday instead, in the form of a gap up open, a volume climax and a bearish reversal candle. Wednesday and Thursday we saw a weak bounce attempt with a potential daily bear flag setup, with the low of Wednesday a must hold level. ACB has not yet lost that level, making it a stronger chart than Canopy which broke that level on Friday and confirmed the daily bear flag.
ACB currently sits within a daily range between 11.91 support and 14.36 resistance. On Friday we saw the bulls make an attempt at that resistance but fell short and dumped for the rest of the day, finishing close to the low of the day on increasing bear volume and looking to start with further weakness into next week. ACB has wicked below the daily MA20 but has yet to close below that level. The daily chart has broken below an RSI support line and the MACD is initiating the strongest bear move it's made since back in July. As I've mentioned we've already lost the daily uptrend; losing 11.91 support would initiate a daily downtrend with a lower high and a lower low on the daily chart.
The $9-10 range has good support with the MA50, MA100 and MA200 all overlapping in this range. Update these levels daily. With weekly and daily indicators all lining up, I would expect the bulls to defend this level on the longer term timeframe.
The 4hr chart shows the clearest details in my opinion.
Bulls are trying to hold 12.69 as the higher low in the 4hr equilibrium but we're not yet confident that our higher low is set. This is a tightening range that could continue for several days before we see a clear break of this pattern. I have no real interest in playing within this pattern because the action is generally choppy, and I know the break of these tightening ranges will carry significant momentum and followthrough for me to play either as a bull or a bear. Let's zoom in for more detail better explain why I anticipate further downside.
Looking into the hourly chart we see exactly why we have a setup for further weakness with an hourly bear flag. Friday we bottomed out when CGC hit hourly oversold and the sector saw very weak bounces on low volume when compared to the bear volume on the dump. Confirming that bear flag by breaking 12.69 means the bulls have not yet found their 4hr higher low and we will continue to look down towards 11.91 support. For anybody interested in playing within this range, the closer we get to 11.91 the better your Risk:Reward becomes as you have an entry much closer to your stop loss level.
If you're the type of person looking years out and holding, you don't care much about the last half of this post but you are very interested in the weekly chart above. While the weekly trend on ACB is not yet at risk Canopy will be testing that level on Monday. This signal from the sector leader gives you an opportunity to stop out and look to reload, for example, 10% more shares for 10% cheaper with the same amount of capital. That's one more way you can compound your gains on these positions even when we see consolidation on the longer term charts.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
A Top in CGC Has Been Made!!! CGC has completed a classic 5 wave pattern, which is very visible as outlined. Not drawn is also a channel, which shows the current top at channel resistance. Also, we have major divergence on the weekly RSI as price has went up, but momentum down. The timing is impeccable as many everyday people have been piling into pot stocks as it is being legalized tomorrow in Canada and topping out. This is when the smart money is going to get out as the dumb money is buying. Everyday people think things will go up after good news comes out, but the big investors already have bought before these things and rely on you buying so they can sell to you at the top. Keep in mind these companies aren't even profitable yet and have billion dollar valuations. This is just pure speculation from people and as we enter into a recession and the stock market tops out these stocks will fall very hard with the rest. The following is paragraph from Wikipedia explaining the characteristics of a 5th wave;
"Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)."
My final advice is to sell immediately and take profits. I expect prices to go as low as the $6 to $12 range before resuming the long term trend. Once that happens as a logical investor one can then evaluate the profitability of this new industry and make a wise investment choice.
CGC sells the news into legalizationCGC saw a big gap up and huge volatility in the opening minute with a range of more than $1, before an aggressive dump spanning 20 minutes and traders took profit, knocking the stock down 12% immediately. CGC bounced off the low of the day pennies above that key resistance we broke Monday for the equilibrium bullbreak - 51.21 former resistance now support, with the low of the day just above at 51.26.
The RSI also backtested the upper resistance of the wedge pattern it broke out of, also as support. The MACD on the daily signals a very weak move from the daily breakout and the volume looks like a volume climax - often a signal of a trend reversal.
We are very confident that on this pullback we will retain the daily uptrend and set a higher low above 46.52. Tomorrow I'll be watching for support at the low of today and at the daily Middle Bollinger Band.
We are seeing weakness after hours having broken the low of consolidation after the bounce, which would typically have us looking to open with weakness the following day. The top of the afternoon bounce rejected from the 15min Upper Bollinger Band and immediately lost the Middle Bollinger Band, rejecting the price for the rest of the day and into after hours. We are downtrending on the 15min currently, looking for a new base of support.
Key support to hold is low of the day 51.26. Key resistance to break to tell us our daily higher low is in will be 55.44. On any continued bull push I do expect a lower high relative to our new all time high 59.25.
We knew the rug was going to be pulled out at any moment, and I was caught a little off guard that it happened first thing this morning but luckily took profit on all my swings on the big gap up open. I do hope everyone heeded last night's advice to set your stop loss orders.
Big institutions have been loading large positions in Canopy with CIBC and Anonymous combined purchasing roughly $500 Million worth of shares in the past month. Be aware these whales can start unloading massive positions at any time without notice.
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ACB sells the news into legalizationACB saw a big gap up and a big push in the first few minutes, followed by an aggressive dump spanning 20 minutes as traders took profit, knocking the stock down an immediate 16%. ACB bounced just five cents above former resistance 13.60 - former resistance now support.
The RSI also rejected from a downtrend line spanning the last few weeks. The MACD on the daily signals a very weak move from the daily breakout and the volume today looks like a volume climax - often a signal of a trend reversal.
We are very confident that on this pullback we will retain the daily uptrend and set a higher low above 12.50. Tomorrow I'll be watching for support at the low of today and at the daily EMA8.
Key support to hold is low of the day 13.65. Key resistance to break to tell us our daily higher low is in will be 14.96. On any continued bull push I do expect a lower high relative to our new all time high 16.24
We knew the rug was going to be pulled out at any moment, and I was caught a little off guard that it happened first thing this morning but luckily took profit on all my swings on the big gap up open. I do hope everyone heeded last night's advice to set your stop loss orders.
Big institutions have been loading large positions in Canopy with CIBC and Anonymous combined purchasing roughly $500 Million worth of shares in the past month. Be aware these whales can start unloading massive positions at any time without notice.
imgur.com
MedMen Enterprises Inc: Largest US Producer Description
MedMen Enterprises Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a cannabis company in the United States. The company cultivates, produces, possesses, uses, and distributes/retails cannabis in the recreational and medicinal cannabis marketplace. It owns and operates 19 licensed facilities in California, Florida, Nevada, and New York. The company is headquartered in Culver City, California.
News: MedMen acquired PharmaCann in a $682 million blockbuster deal, which will create the largest public cannabis company in the U.S.
Current Total Square Ft: 4,100
Future Total Square Ft: 49,100
Location: Culver City, California, USA
Website: www.medmen.com
Number of Employees: Unknown
Market Cap: 3.361M
Ave Volume: 597,268
APHRIA Inc: ProducerReentry price levels to watch
Description
Aphria Inc. produces and sells medical cannabis in Canada and internationally. The company offers sativa, indica, and hybrid medical marijuana products, as well as cannabis oils. It serves patients, health professionals, and veterans. The company sells its products through its online store or phones, as well as engages in the wholesale shipping of cannabis plant cuttings and dried buds to other licensed producers. The company calls itself one of the lowest cost producers of marijuana. In April 2018, their stock surged after the company announced that it had struck a deal to sell its products through the online site of Shoppers Drug Mart, a major Canadian pharmacy chain.
News: U.S. tobacco giant Altria Group Inc. (115 billion market cap), offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; cigars principally under the Black & Mild brand; and moist smokeless tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands, is in talks to acquire an equity stake in Canadian cannabis grower Aphria Inc., multiple sources say.
Current Total Square Ft: 100,000
Future Total Square Ft: 1,000,000
Location: Leamington, Ontario, Canada
Website: aphria.com
Number of Employees: 300
Market Cap: 3.556B
Ave Volume: 1,689,963
OrganiGram Holdings Inc: OGRMF WEEKLY CHARTPrice levels to watch.
Description
OrganiGram Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, produces and sells medical marijuana to individuals and physicians in Canada. It offers marijuana plants, seeds, and cuttings; cannabis oil; and dried flower and cannabis. The company sells its products through phone and online store. It also operates healing centers that offer treatments for post-traumatic stress disorders, chronic pain, and trauma therapy. In addition, the company exports its products. OrganiGram Holdings Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in Moncton, Canada.
News: www.newswire.ca
Current Total Square Ft: 227,500
Future Total Square Ft: 428,725
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada
Website: www.organigram.ca
Number of Employees: 261
Market Cap: 660.702M
Ave Volume: 784,028
Canopy Growth Corporation: LARGE cannabis producerReentry levels to watch
Description
Canopy Growth Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in growing, possession, and sale of medical cannabis in Canada. Its products include dried flowers, oils and concentrates, softgel capsules, and hemps. The company offers its products under the Tweed, Black Label, Spectrum Cannabis, DNA Genetics, Leafs By Snoop, Bedrocan Canada, CraftGrow, and Foria brand names. It also offers its products through Tweed Main Street, a single online platform that enables registered patients to purchase medicinal cannabis from various producers across various brands. The company was formerly known as Tweed Marijuana Inc. and changed its name to Canopy Growth Corporation in September 2015. Canopy Growth Corporation was listed on the NYSE in May.
Current Total Square Ft: 598,000
Future Total Square Ft: 1,268,000
Location: Smith Falls, Ontario, Canada
Website: www.canopygrowth.com
Number of Employees: 1,435
Market Cap: 12.206B
Ave Volume: 9,867,500
