$BTC Has Another Bullish Weekly Close to Confirm New TrendCRYPTOCAP:BTC confirmed new bull market structure closing outside of the pennant 🐂
Should rip after Trump is announced POTUS and new round of rate cuts this week 🚀
Potus
SPX: Rally until Nov 20...then brace yourselvesLooks like we have a confirmed uptrend signal here, which is what I expected to happen since the market created a big support level indicating the smart money absorbed the last crash.
It's interesting that for most people, it borders on lunacy to be long risk ahead of the POTUS elections, but it seems to be the right thing to do. I suspect we will get a Trump victory, with the market moving higher steadily until Nov 20th, roughly.
The crash that follows might be of significant proportions, as the post COVID world brought forth many problematic changes to fundamentals, making the current rally unsustainable, once we go back to normal and end lock downs globally. Without some miracle, I think we will see interest rates go up, inflation rear its ugly head and markets gyrate in a large volatile sideways range similar to the one that took place from 1997 to 2011. In such an environment, it won't be easy to generate returns from investments in equities, and we might see commodities outperform equities, value outperform growth, and many other relative performance trends reverse course (like the long US Tech, short the world trend) which a deflationary world allowed to exist. Stock picking and market timing will make a big difference in this new world.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Likely Bearish Scenario for the following monthsIf we're before a yet unconfirmed bearish phase, this is a likely scenario.
You can trade within the bearish channel.
A minimal market run-up usually always follow the days prior a new POTUS election.
I think we can expect markets continue to fall whether Trump or Biden get elected.
It will only stop falling until long-term Bitcoin channel bottoms are hit.
This is hit or miss, don't take this a financial advice.
I post to see if my prediction ability is on point or too far off.
Cheers.-
GBPUSD Short GBPUSD formed a double top and bearish engulfing on 4h hour chart, looks like investors are going to turn risk off after Trump comments about China.
POTUS Election ChartThe point?
Markets tend to chop around before Presidential Elections.
George Bush Senior is probably the best performing Presidential stock market to not get re-elected.
Clinton likely had the best performing stock market thanks to the internet, unbridled leverage in real estate due to tax-free capital gains of $500,000 every 2 years for couples in their principal residences.
George Bush Jr had the worst performing stock market over 8 years with almost a zero return.
Obama's term picked up the mess from the Clinton's leveraging the system and Bush deleveraging the system. Everyone blames everyone but not many really understand what happened. No one wants to believe the facts and points to facts that don't matter. What matters is regulatory policy and tax law. It wasn't "greedy people abusing the system", it was a "poorly leveraged system".
What do we want next? What will we get next?
IF history is any guide, we are in the equivalent of the 1980's now with a decent comparison to the time period from 1984-1987 at the moment after coming out of a 16 year-sideways grind (inflation adjusted). We have technology still taking off in the form of EV's, 5G, AI, and all sorts of infrastructure spending ahead, hopefully mass transit, high speed rail and hyper-loops (underground boring of tunnels).
I'd suggest that Trump is doing his best at trying to push forth what Reagan's economic plans were: strong defense, deficit spend, tax rate cuts, stimulate investment, bring capital home, while using force all over the world (Panama, Grenada, Libya, Nicaragua, etc.).
Well - the point I want to make here is that the primaries are just about a year away and there will be mudslinging and bashing going on for the better part of the next year and that's when stock markets rock back and forth.
Let's stay tuned with what's going on so we don't go too crazy:
1. Government shut-down shot down the momentum in the economic growth prospects at year end 2018.
2. Boeing 737 Max8 instills fear in passengers and the most efficient airplane ever built is grounded, stunting spending, jobs, profits, investment and casted doubt on a major institution and the ability of the Gov't to oversee safe airplanes.
3. Massive growth in Electric Vehicles is causing a steady decline in demand for gas & diesel vehicles with huge repercussions long term for the whole industry and related industries.
4. Upheaval in trade talks in the attempt to level out the playing field causing a massive rift in communications between countries.
5. Tensions from nuclear development, threats to world peace from certain dictators shooting off rockets last year created worldwide concern about the safety of the all of us.
6. Climate change worries are escalating as storms, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, cyclones, and earthquakes are shaking everyone to their core and fearing for the future of our population.
7. Mass migration from Syria to Europe and South America/Central America to the USA is putting severe pressure on countries' ability to handle the influx and care for, feed and place everyone in homes and jobs.
8. Mass frustration over deficit spending in almost every country is forcing Central Banks to keep rates near zero to stimulate demand and has allowed huge deficits to accumulate that are virtually impossible to pay off, but can be carried ONLY at low rates.
I'm sure there are plenty more points to make, but I'm going to stop here and add more later.
I look forward to your comments, quips and questions.
All the best,
Tim West
May 31, 2019. 1:35PM EST
SPY: Update - Bottom was inHow are people still bearish on SPY? I'm glad I didn't close my equity longs, although I did have a stop out at break even on my SPX position overnight. The way SPX bottomed against the BIG$ support level obtained from VIX showed us there was going to be a rally once again.
The reaction to Trump's increasing odds, and finally victory in the elections was absolutely extreme, 'despair' like my mentor, Tim West described it in his yearly forecast chart. This sentiment extreme sets the stage for a rally, and we already had such rally. Now, if this keeps going there's a chance that it confirms my 2-month timeframe uptrend signal, with a target at 249.
The signal was confirmed by the end of October, and the retest of support simply gave a low risk buy opportunity which we seized.
We'll be examining this closely in the near future. Hopefully Trump manages to help the economy pick up steam with his plans, and doesn't implement his ridiculous ideas like the 'Mexican wall' to name a few.
Positives are many, unknowns too, but I believe the market is full of opportunity right now, with blood on the streets.
Good luck, to all.
Ivan Labrie.
