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GBP/USD: UK Retail Sales Miss Estimates, Pound Sterling Faces...UK Retail Sales Miss Estimates, Pound Sterling Faces Headwinds The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that UK Retail Sales in August fell short of expectations, adding to concerns about the country's economic trajectory. The Pound Sterling (GBP) has faced headwinds as a result of this disappointing retail trade data. Here are the key highlights from the recent release: 1. Monthly Retail Sales Figures: UK Retail Sales increased by 0.4% in August, falling short of the 0.5% expected and marking a modest recovery from the previous month's -1.1% decline. Core Retail Sales, which exclude auto and motor fuel sales, saw a 0.6% month-on-month rise, in line with expectations, but failing to fully offset the previous month's -1.4% drop. 2. Annual Retail Sales Data: On an annual basis, Retail Sales in the United Kingdom experienced a decline of 1.4% in August, compared to an anticipated -1.0%, and following July's sharp 3.1% drop. Core Retail Sales also exhibited a 1.4% decline during the reported month, surpassing expectations of -1.3% but indicating a significant contraction compared to the -3.3% decline in the previous period. 3. Economic Challenges Persist: These figures underscore the challenges facing the UK economy, with firms exercising caution by limiting their operating capacity and curbing labor growth. The economic landscape remains vulnerable, and the recent data highlights the complexities that the Bank of England (BoE) faces in its attempts to navigate through these challenges. 4. BoE's Monetary Policy: On Thursday, the BoE maintained the possibility of further policy tightening should inflationary pressures persist, emphasizing its commitment to addressing both inflation and potential recession risks. The central bank's stance reflects the delicate balancing act required to sustain economic stability. In conclusion, the UK's retail trade data missing estimates has added to the complexities faced by the Pound Sterling and the broader economy. The Pound continues to navigate policy divergence with the Federal Reserve and grapples with economic uncertainties. As the BoE keeps a watchful eye on inflation, the GBP's path ahead remains uncertain, with the economy striving to regain its footing amid challenging conditions. Our preference Short positions below 1.2310 with targets at 1.2215 & 1.2180 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
GBP/USD Remains Defensive as Market Awaits Key Economic DataGBP/USD Remains Defensive as Market Awaits Key Economic Data The GBP/USD pair finds itself on the defensive below the mid-1.2200s as the Asian trading session kicks off on Monday. Market participants are keeping a close eye on upcoming economic data releases, with the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data slated for release later in the week. As of now, the major currency pair is hovering near 1.2242, registering a modest 0.02% gain for the day. The recent hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials has lent support to the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP). Presidents of the Fed Banks of Boston and San Francisco, Susan Collins and Mary Daly, have underscored the importance of further rate hikes despite signs of cooling inflation. This stance could potentially act as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. Pound Sterling (GBP) has been enduring a three-day losing streak, driven by growing uncertainty surrounding the UK's economic prospects. S&P Global recently reported that UK Services PMI contracted for the second consecutive time, indicating a downturn in the nation's services sector. Bank of England (BoE) policymakers have shifted their focus to the UK's economic outlook in the face of persistent inflationary pressures. The GBP/USD pair faced significant pressure following an unexpected pause in the BoE's policy-tightening measures last week. This sudden deviation from expectations, where an interest rate increase was anticipated, raised concerns about potential economic slowdown in the UK. Uncertainty over the interest rate outlook has added to the GBP's woes, exacerbated by the upcoming general elections. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pledged to reduce inflation to 5.3% by year-end, but the BoE's rate pause suggests challenges in fulfilling this promise. The UK economy has already felt the impact of higher interest rates, with both manufacturing and services activities showing signs of contraction. In this climate of uncertainty, the GBP/USD pair faces headwinds, and investors will be closely monitoring key economic data releases to gauge the future direction of this currency pair. The upcoming GDP data for the UK and the Core PCE Price Index for the US could provide crucial insights into the economic health of both nations and impact currency markets accordingly. Our preference Short positions below 1.2310 with targets at 1.2180 & 1.2100 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
7
GBPCAD H4 | Potential bearish breakoutGBPCAD is attempting to break below a key pullback support and momentum could cause it to drop lower for a potentially bearish breakout. Sell entry is at 1.65366 which is a pullback support; wait for the current 4-hour candle to close below the Sell entry prior to putting on the trade. Stop loss is at 1.66206 which is a pullback resistance level. Take profit is at 1.63953 which is a pullback support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
GBP/USD:Will Upcoming Economic Data and Central Bank Decisions..GBP/USD at Crossroads: Will Upcoming Economic Data and Central Bank Decisions Define Its Fate? The GBP/USD currency pair has been in the spotlight recently as it struggled to capitalize on modest weakness in the US Dollar (USD). Despite a brief recovery attempt towards the 1.2400 level, the pair lost its momentum, inching closer to the multi-month low at 1.2730. In this article, we delve into the factors impacting GBP/USD, including upcoming economic data releases and key central bank decisions. Central Bank Caution Investors are currently treading cautiously as they await crucial announcements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE). The Fed's monetary policy announcement is scheduled for Wednesday, followed by the BoE's decision on Thursday. These events are crucial determinants of GBP/USD's trajectory, and market participants are hesitant to make bold moves ahead of them. Economists at ING have noted the prevailing cautious sentiment, stating that it's no surprise to see investors adopting a "broadly defensive" stance. While the base case for the BoE remains a rate hike, the ultimate impact on Sterling will depend on the central bank's ability to convince markets of their commitment to further action. This uncertainty leaves GBP/USD in a state of limbo, with traders reluctant to commit until the dust settles. Inflationary Concerns The upcoming release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August by the UK's Office for National Statistics adds another layer of uncertainty to the GBP/USD equation. Bloomberg's consensus suggests that inflation may rise, possibly surpassing the 7% mark. Persistent inflationary pressures, both in headline and core rates, have been a source of concern for some time. This raises the question of when we will finally see a fall in inflation. Wage growth data has also raised doubts about a quick resolution to inflationary challenges. Past inflation publications frequently surprised on the upside, further complicating the outlook. In the event that Wednesday's inflation data aligns with or exceeds expectations, and the BoE adopts a dovish tone on Thursday, Sterling's downtrend is likely to persist, putting further pressure on GBP/USD. Market Sentiment GBP/USD's ability to capitalize on any potential USD weakness depends not only on central bank decisions but also on broader market sentiment. If Wall Street opens on a bullish note and equity indexes surge, the USD may remain on the back foot. While this could limit losses for GBP/USD, a decisive move to the upside may prove challenging to achieve. Conclusion The GBP/USD currency pair finds itself at a crossroads, with multiple factors influencing its near-term direction. Central bank decisions, economic data releases, and market sentiment are all in play. As investors remain cautious, it is clear that the fate of GBP/USD hinges on the outcome of this week's key events. Until then, the currency pair remains within touching distance of its multi-month low, eagerly awaiting clarity in an uncertain landscape. Our preference Short positions below 1.2450 with targets at 1.2340 & 1.2300 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
14
GBPJPY H4 | Rising into resistanceGBPJPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 183.325 which is a pullback resistance that also intersects with the descending trendline. Stop loss is at 183.980 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance level. Take profit is at 181.758 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
GBPJPY H4 | Approaching overlap supportGBPJPY is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 182.957 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 181.800 which is a level that aligns under the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level. Take profit is at 184.462 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Surprised by Fed hinting at another rate hike this year?The big story of the day is of course the Fed signaling one more rate hike this year. At the conclusion of its FOMC meeting a few hours ago, The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, but projected another rate increase by the end of the year. Additionally, higher for longer is probably the new reality, with projections showing rates falling only half a percentage point in 2024 compared to the full percentage point of cuts anticipated at the meeting in June. Financial markets had widely expected that the Fed would leave rates unchanged, but the revision to its projected cuts has caught markets off-guard. The biggest mover of the day; GBPUSD was doubling impacted by the Fed decision and UK Inflation Rate Slowing Further to 1-1/2-Year Low (to 6.7% in August 2023 from 6.8% in the previous month, falling below the market consensus of 7.0%.) The GBPUSD moved from around 1.238 to a low at 1.233 (but not before some indecision and a shot up to 1.238 within the first hour). In the end, the price fell below the pre-decision (panicked?) low. The current price trades at 1.234 just above that level, but an eye will be kept on this new short-term resistance for the downside prospects of this pair
by BlackBull_Markets
GBPAUD: Trendline break, waiting for retestWe can see that GBPAUD has broken the weekly rising trendline with gusto at the end of last week. We have a small pinbar close on Friday which suggests a retracement back up to retest. I'm expecting strength to build up for the AUD with the positive signs coming out of China, we can see it is recovering across most crosses, and sterling weakening. BoE decision on Thursday is important, however I think whatever happens this is a good pair to trade and I'm expecting lots of short pips from this pair over the next few months. Watching out for the retest and then I'll be starting to short.
Short
by Finchcliffe
📈GBPUSD analysis, Weekly insight into price behavior📉FX:GBPUSD OANDA:GBPUSD Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas. If the Pound stabilizes above the weekly Bollinger midline, the bearish scenario won't be fellfield. In the bearish scenario, the price can fall to the yellow zone. ✌💥If you are satisfied with my analytical content, please share my ideas💥✌ ✍🐱‍👤Otherwise, make sure you leave comments and let me know what you think.🐱‍👤✍ 🤑🍾Thank you for your support. I hope you will gain profit by following my analyses.🍾🤑 CrazyS✌
Short
by CrazyS
2
GBP/USD Forecast: Analyzing the Future OutlookOver the course of the past two weeks, the GBPUSD currency pair experienced a pronounced decline, breaching the pivotal monthly support at 1.2448. Notably, there was a subsequent rally to retest this critical level during the Friday session of the preceding week, following the initial breach observed on Thursday. In the upcoming trading week, our strategic outlook is anchored on the potential for a price resurgence, with an aim to revisit and validate the 1.2448 level before anticipating a subsequent descent, as indicated by the directional arrow.
Short
by Blackerberg
GBP/JPY Forecast: Analyzing the Future OutlookThe asset in question is currently adhering to a prevailing downtrend, exhibiting a prolonged phase of consolidation. Notably, it has recently dipped below the support level observed in the previous two weeks, located at the 184 area. In the upcoming sessions, our strategy revolves around the potential for a price rebound, targeting the 180.4 threshold as a prospective entry point for short-selling positions. We will closely monitor price behavior at this level; should it maintain resistance, we anticipate a subsequent descent, with an objective set to ride the downward momentum towards the 182.7 area.
Short
by Blackerberg
GBPUSD: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBPUSD is trading in a bearish trend on a daily. The price broke and closed below a key daily horizontal support last week. The broken structure and a falling trend line now compose the contracting supply zone. We already saw a strong rejection from its lower boundary on Monday. Bears will most likely keep dominating. Next support 1.24 For entries, consider the underlined blue area. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
4