Pound
GBPAUD: Continuation to the downside expectedI'm expecting a continuation to the downside due to general GBP weakness.
BOA held rates at 4.1%, so did BoE 5.25%, however it looks like the UK is more likely to have a deeper recession. I think the pound is generally over expended so seeing further correction.
We've retraced 38% of the Fib and looking like a doji forming on the 8hr, if it does I'm looking to short.
✅GBP_JPY LOCAL LONG🚀
✅GBP_JPY went down to retest a horizontal support of 180.500
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that a move up
From the level is to be expected
Towards the target above at 181.500
LONG🚀
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GBPJPY selling opportunityHey there traders,
After last week market shows us nice pattern of selling pressure. Let's see
##Daily
Market broke the strong support zone...
and made retest and shows us a nice rejection candle at the previous support zone.
Bias = Down
##Hourly
Market shows us a nice support zone....
trying to break that zone several times.....but did not
In Monday we expect nice and awesome breakout of that support zone......
After the breakout market will fall nicely....
Good Luck
Follow money management
GBPUSD: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD is trading in a strong bearish trend.
After the price set a new lower low on a daily, the price retraced to a falling trend line.
Testing that, the pair formed a bearish engulfing candle, confirming a strong bearish
reaction.
I believe that the market may easily retest the local lows now.
Goal - 1.214
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GBP/USD Makes Gains Amid Improved Market SentimentGBP/USD Makes Gains Amid Improved Market Sentiment
Pound Sterling (GBP) has shown signs of recovery, edging closer to the 1.2200 mark as market participants exhibit an improved appetite for risk. This recent upturn comes after the currency found support near 1.2100, following a period of pressure as investors shifted away from riskier assets amidst a cautious market sentiment.
Risk-Off to Risk-On
The GBP/USD pair initially faced headwinds as investors exhibited risk aversion, resulting in a sell-off of assets perceived as risky. However, the recent mild correction in the US Dollar has bolstered the appeal of risk-sensitive assets, prompting the Pound Sterling to recover and approach the 1.2200 level.
Challenges for the UK Economy
Despite this recent uptick, the Pound Sterling's outlook remains vulnerable, primarily due to the increasing risks of a recession in the United Kingdom. Several factors contribute to this challenging economic landscape.
High Inflation and Slowing Demand
The UK economy grapples with persistently high inflation and a noticeable slowdown in demand. These issues are substantial concerns as they can trigger stagflation risks, a situation characterized by stagnant economic growth, high inflation, and high unemployment. This trifecta of challenges poses a significant threat to the UK's economic stability.
Manufacturing and Services PMI in Contraction Territory
The health of both the manufacturing and services sectors, vital components of the UK economy, has been under scrutiny. Recent data has shown that both sectors have slipped into contraction territory, signifying economic weaknesses. These contractions are indicative of reduced economic activity and business confidence.
Uncertainty Over Interest Rates and Elections
Uncertainty surrounding the outlook for interest rates, especially in the lead-up to general elections, further clouds the economic landscape. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's commitment to halve inflation to around 5.3% by year-end faces skepticism, particularly in light of the pause in interest rate changes announced by Bank of England (BoE) policymakers.
Looking Ahead
For further insights into the Pound Sterling's trajectory, investors will closely monitor the release of the final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data in the upcoming week. These figures will provide additional clarity on the state of the UK economy.
Technical Strength
To demonstrate more meaningful technical strength, the GBP/USD pair would need to surpass the 1.2350 mark. This level represents a crucial point of reference for assessing the currency's performance in the near term.
In conclusion, while the Pound Sterling has made recent gains amid improved market sentiment, the challenges facing the UK economy, including high inflation, slowing demand, and uncertainty over interest rates and elections, continue to pose risks. Vigilance and caution will be essential for both investors and policymakers as they navigate the complex economic landscape.
Our preference
Short positions below 1.23500 with targets at 1.2100 & 1.20050 in extension.
GBPUSD D1 | Falling to Fibo confluence supportGBP/USD is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.20707 which is a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 78.6% retracement and the 127.2% extension levels.
Stop loss is at 1.18248 which is a swing-low support level.
Take profit is at 1.23087 which is a pullback resistance level.
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EURGBP: Confirmed Bearish Reversal?! 🇪🇺🇬🇧
EURGBP leaves important bearish clues after a test of a solid daily horizontal resistance:
I see a double top and a rising parallel channel patterns.
The price violated both the horizontal neckline and a trend line and closed below them two.
I anticipate a further bearish continuation to 0.8635 / 0.8619
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EUR-GBP Will Go Down! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-GBP has established
A double top pattern and then
Broke the key horizontal level
Of 0.867 and the breakout
Is confirmed so I think that
We will see a further move down
Sell!
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GBPUSD: One More Breakout 🇬🇧🇺🇸
It turned out that GBPUSD violated one more key daily structure support and closed below that.
The next key structure that I see is 1.2010 - 1.2055 area.
That will most likely be the next goal for the sellers.
For shorting, consider the contracting area based on a falling trend line and a broken structure.
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Pound H4 | Potential bearish reversalThe Pound (GBP/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse from here to drop lower towards our take profit target.
Entry: 1.21936
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Stop Loss: 1.22882
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 1.20487
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBPCAD H4 | Rising into resistance?GBPCAD is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.64593 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 1.65400 which is a level that sits above the overlap resistance level.
Take profit is at 1.63857 which is a pullback support level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
GBPUSD: Oversold Market & Potential Pullback 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD looks quite oversold.
The pair is under a strong bearish pressure for many days.
The market is currently testing a solid key daily support.
Analysing the intraday perspective, I spotted a falling wedge pattern on an hourly t.f.
Bullish breakout of the resistance of the wedge will be a strong bullish confirmation.
A pullback will be anticipated then to 1.2225 / 1.225 levels.
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GBPUSD: Rebound in short term?Trend is bearish but at the same time, on intraday chart a corrective structure is possible in short term. That said, if the pair triggers a bullish (impulsive) leg, it might be interesting to take a long position on pullback. From a technical point of view, the potential technical rebound should take the shape of ABC Pattern.
GBP/USD: UK Retail Sales Miss Estimates, Pound Sterling Faces...UK Retail Sales Miss Estimates, Pound Sterling Faces Headwinds
The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that UK Retail Sales in August fell short of expectations, adding to concerns about the country's economic trajectory. The Pound Sterling (GBP) has faced headwinds as a result of this disappointing retail trade data.
Here are the key highlights from the recent release:
1. Monthly Retail Sales Figures:
UK Retail Sales increased by 0.4% in August, falling short of the 0.5% expected and marking a modest recovery from the previous month's -1.1% decline.
Core Retail Sales, which exclude auto and motor fuel sales, saw a 0.6% month-on-month rise, in line with expectations, but failing to fully offset the previous month's -1.4% drop.
2. Annual Retail Sales Data:
On an annual basis, Retail Sales in the United Kingdom experienced a decline of 1.4% in August, compared to an anticipated -1.0%, and following July's sharp 3.1% drop.
Core Retail Sales also exhibited a 1.4% decline during the reported month, surpassing expectations of -1.3% but indicating a significant contraction compared to the -3.3% decline in the previous period.
3. Economic Challenges Persist:
These figures underscore the challenges facing the UK economy, with firms exercising caution by limiting their operating capacity and curbing labor growth.
The economic landscape remains vulnerable, and the recent data highlights the complexities that the Bank of England (BoE) faces in its attempts to navigate through these challenges.
4. BoE's Monetary Policy:
On Thursday, the BoE maintained the possibility of further policy tightening should inflationary pressures persist, emphasizing its commitment to addressing both inflation and potential recession risks.
The central bank's stance reflects the delicate balancing act required to sustain economic stability.
In conclusion, the UK's retail trade data missing estimates has added to the complexities faced by the Pound Sterling and the broader economy. The Pound continues to navigate policy divergence with the Federal Reserve and grapples with economic uncertainties. As the BoE keeps a watchful eye on inflation, the GBP's path ahead remains uncertain, with the economy striving to regain its footing amid challenging conditions.
Our preference
Short positions below 1.2310 with targets at 1.2215 & 1.2180 in extension.
EURGBP: Top-Down Analysis 🇪🇺🇬🇧
EURGBP is trading within a wide horizontal range on a daily.
Its upper boundary was reached last week.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to that, we can spot a narrow horizontal range
on an hourly time frame.
Its support has just been broken - it is an important sign of strength of the sellers.
I anticipate a further decline now to 0.8666 / 0.865
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