Fundamental Market Analysis for December 04, 2024 GBPUSDUS labor and payrolls data will dominate this week ahead of Friday's NFP.
Pound/Dollar has been charting just south of the 1.2700 mark on Tuesday, holding rates in check as Pound Sterling traders struggle with a significant lull in meaningful UK economic data, while the broader markets prepare for a fresh batch of US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data due out later in the week.
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak early Wednesday. The head of the UK central bank will give a pre-recorded interview at a conference organized by the Financial Times. Nothing noteworthy is expected from the Bank of England Governor's speech, but GBP traders will be keeping their ears to the ground to make sure they don't miss any significant phrases the BoE Governor may announce.
Wednesday will see the release of the US non-farm employment change data from ADP, which is expected to fall to 150k from the previous reading of 233k. In the US trading session on Wednesday, investors will also receive data on the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The US services PMI survey is expected to fall to 55.5 in November from 56.0 in the previous month.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to speak on Wednesday. The Fed chief will answer questions from the audience during a discussion organized by the New York Times.
Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2700, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
Pound
The Psychology of Wealth
🔸The psychology of wealth centers on cultivating a mindset that aligns your thoughts, beliefs, and actions with abundance, financial success, and prosperity.
🔸The affirmations you’ve mentioned—such as "money comes easily," "I deserve success," and "I’m in control of my future"—are key components of a wealth-oriented mindset. This approach isn’t just about positive thinking; it’s about rewiring your brain, creating empowering habits, and developing the emotional resilience needed to achieve financial and personal success.
🔸Here’s a breakdown of how these affirmations and principles relate to the psychology of wealth:
1. "Money Comes Easily"
▪️Belief in Ease and Flow: This statement fosters a belief that financial opportunities are abundant and accessible. When you believe money can come easily, you’re more likely to notice opportunities, attract resources, and act on them confidently.
▪️Shift from Scarcity to Abundance: Many people operate with a scarcity mindset, feeling money is hard to earn. By affirming that money comes easily, you break free from this limiting belief and open yourself to creative solutions and ideas.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Identify opportunities in your field or new markets.
▪️Develop skills that make earning money simpler and more sustainable.
2. "I Deserve Success"
▪️Self-Worth and Wealth: Believing you deserve success ties your financial achievements to your sense of self-worth. If you subconsciously feel undeserving, you may sabotage your efforts or settle for less.
▪️Breaking Limiting Beliefs: Many people are conditioned by childhood experiences or societal expectations to believe success is reserved for others. Reaffirming that you deserve success challenges these limiting beliefs.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Reflect on past achievements and recognize your value.
▪️Engage in self-care and personal growth activities to reinforce your worthiness.
3. "There Is an Abundance of Money"
▪️Abundance Mentality: This statement helps shift from a scarcity mindset to an abundance mindset. Believing there’s enough wealth for everyone fosters collaboration, innovation, and generosity.
▪️Law of Attraction: When you focus on abundance, you’re more likely to act in ways that attract wealth and prosperity into your life.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Practice gratitude daily to focus on what you already have.
▪️Seek out stories or examples of abundance to reinforce this belief.
4. "Nothing Can Stop Me from Success"
▪️Resilience and Determination: This affirmation builds a mindset of resilience and perseverance. It reminds you that challenges are temporary and that you have the power to overcome obstacles.
▪️Reframing Failure: By adopting this belief, you view setbacks as opportunities to learn and grow, rather than insurmountable barriers.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Break big goals into manageable steps to maintain momentum.
▪️Develop a "growth mindset," where challenges are viewed as essential for improvement.
5. "I’m in Control of My Future"
▪️Empowerment and Responsibility: This belief emphasizes personal accountability and the ability to influence your financial destiny. It counters feelings of helplessness and external blame.
▪️Focus on What You Can Control: While you can’t control every external event, you can control your reactions, decisions, and efforts.
🔸Actionable Steps:
▪️Set clear financial and personal goals.
▪️Continuously educate yourself about wealth-building strategies, such as investing, saving, and entrepreneurship.
Final Thoughts
The psychology of wealth is about more than financial gain—it’s about cultivating a mindset of abundance, gratitude, and empowerment. By believing that money comes easily, you deserve success, and you are in control of your future, you set the stage for proactive behaviors and sustained growth. Pair these beliefs with practical strategies, and you’ll find yourself on a path toward financial freedom and personal fulfillment.
eurusd h4 long/short +220/+300 pips swing trade plan🔸Hello traders, let's review the 4hour chart for EURUSD today.
All previous setups hit TP, +600 pips original short and recently
another short from resistance TP hit +240 pips.
feel free to recap via links below:
🔸Currently after hitting 0500 EURUSD remains weak / vulnerable
to further downside. I'm not expecting any bounce from current
levels and also can't recommend any new entries, right now this
is a no trade zone for me.
🔸Bears will target re-test of key s/r zone at 0380, this is also
the highest probability zone for a bounce in EURUSD.
Resistance overhead set at 0600, so this is a +220 pips trade setup
based on the bounce off the key s/r zone.
🔸Recommended strategy for EURUSD traders:no trade recommended
at current price, however bulls should enter BUY/HOLD at/near 0380
SL 40 pips TP1 +120 TP2 +220 final exit at 0600. Bears should wait
for the bounce to complete and short from overhead resistance at
0600 TP1 +150 pips TP2 +300 pips final exit at 0300. SL 40 pips.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
GBP/USD 1H AnalysisThe price has broken above a key resistance zone, which is now acting as support. This breakout signals potential bullish momentum.
✅ What I’m watching for:
If the price pulls back to the new support zone, it could present a good opportunity to enter a long position, but only with confirmation of buyers stepping in.
🚨 Plan:
Wait for clear signals, like bullish candlesticks or increased buying volume, to confirm the support holds before entering.
👉 Follow me for more trade ideas and updates!
GBPUSD SHORT TO $1.24300 (UPDATE)Once again overnight (Asia session) GU shot back up again towards our Wave 5 entry zone, rejected it again & is running 70 PIPS in profit so far.
Me & my Gold Vault Academy students understand that Wave 5 being the FINAL IMPULSE WAVE, means that wave will move slowly & trap in a lot of early buyers before it reaches its target. As an Elliott Wave trader, you need to learn to be generous with your SL as we are long term traders trading the higher TF’s, not scalpers👌
GBP/USD: Analysis , Can the Pound Find Support at 1.2400?The Pound Sterling is experiencing a sustained bearish trend, remaining under significant pressure following President-elect Donald Trump's recent announcement of a proposed 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, alongside a 10% increase on all imports from China to the United States. These developments are likely to strengthen the U.S. Dollar further, potentially driving the Pound and other currencies into another bearish phase against the Dollar.
As the market digests these tariff implications, investors are wary of the potential economic repercussions, especially as they pertain to trade relationships. The insistence on higher tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from affected countries, creating uncertainty that weighs heavily on the Pound.
Looking ahead, analysts are closely watching the 1.2400 mark, which is recognized as a potential demand zone for the Pound. If the currency falls to this level, it may attract buying interest from traders looking to capitalize on a rebound. However, the overall sentiment appears to favor further bearish movement unless there are significant changes in the economic landscape or policy shifts.
In this volatile environment, market participants are advised to remain vigilant, as the unfolding situation may present both risks and opportunities.
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Silver Strategic Outlook 2025: Bulls will Target $40 USD 50% BUY🔸Hello guys, today let's review D1 price chart for SILVER. 5 waves
impulse in progress, currently wave 3 completed and we are entering
wave 4 pullback / re-accumulation stage right now.
🔸Well defined 5 waves structure, with two re-accumulation zones
in wave 2 / wave 4. Impulse projected to end in 2025 with wave 5
and bulls will target 40 USD. 40 USD will cap the upside in precious
metals and will result in ABC correction in 2026.
🔸Recommended strategy position traders: BULLS should focus on
buying low from the lows of the re-accumulation zone, so the best
entry to BUY/HOLD is near 27/28 USD. TP is 40 USD. 50% unlevereged
upside in this trade. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
GBPUSD SHORT TO $1.24300 (UPDATE)We saw a huge gap on GU last night on market open, which took price back to our entry zone. But it's fine because the analysis is still valid & our position remains open, running in profit👌
We are in the final Wave 5, so it's not a surprise price is moving slowly towards the final target. Seeing a 3 Sub-Wave move play out.
Is GBP/USD Set for a Further Rally? Let's have a look.The GBP/USD pair made a robust recovery at the beginning of the week, showcasing strength against its major competitors. This bounce-back comes after a notable decline on Friday, triggered by disappointing economic data. Specifically, the UK Retail Sales contracted at a faster-than-anticipated rate in October, and the flash S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November fell below the critical 50.0 mark for the first time since October 2023.
The primary factor contributing to the Pound Sterling's resurgence appears to be strong market sentiment regarding the Bank of England's (BoE) potential for a more measured approach to policy easing compared to other Western central banks. Notably, the currency is trading within a demand zone, suggesting the potential for upward movement. Additionally, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail sentiment is leaning bearish; however, similar to the EUR/USD, the opening gap might be filled, which could lead to a further decline in prices.
A decline towards the 1.2400 level could present an attractive buying opportunity for those looking to acquire the Pound at a discount. Historical seasonality trends also indicate a likelihood for the GBP to appreciate in the near term. Nevertheless, I recommend waiting until Wednesday, following the release of the USD unemployment data, before making any trading decisions. Currently, my outlook remains bearish on the GBP/USD.
GBP/USD GAP
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6 Things to Do before you start Investing and Trading1. Build an Emergency Fund
▪️Why it's important: Having an emergency fund ensures you have a financial cushion for unexpected expenses (e.g., medical bills, car repairs, job loss). Without this safety net, you may be forced to sell investments or go into debt if something unforeseen happens.
▪️How to do it: Aim for 3-6 months' worth of living expenses in a liquid, easily accessible account like a savings account. Focus on saving first before putting money into investments.
2. Pay Down High-Interest Debt
▪️Why it's important: High-interest debt, especially from credit cards, can severely hinder your financial progress. The interest on these debts is often higher than the returns you could earn from investments in the short term.
▪️How to do it: Prioritize paying off high-interest debts first (e.g., credit cards), then move on to other debts like student loans or car loans. Consider strategies like the debt snowball or debt avalanche method.
3. Define Your Financial Goals and Priorities
▪️Why it's important: Knowing what you're investing for (e.g., retirement, a down payment on a house, education, or travel) will help you choose the right investment vehicles and timeframes. It also provides motivation and direction.
▪️How to do it: Set SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound) financial goals. Break them down into short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals. This helps you align your investments with your needs.
4. Know Your Cash Flow
▪️Why it's important: Understanding your income and expenses is essential for managing your finances and determining how much money you can consistently allocate to investing. If you don't have a clear picture of your cash flow, you might overextend yourself or miss opportunities.
▪️How to do it: Create a monthly budget to track your income, fixed expenses, and discretionary spending. Consider using a budgeting tool or app to make this process easier. Be honest about where you can cut back to free up funds for investing.
5. Track Your Net Worth
▪️Why it's important: Tracking your net worth gives you a clear picture of your overall financial health. It's a snapshot of what you own (assets) minus what you owe (liabilities). This helps you measure your progress over time and adjust as needed.
▪️How to do it: List all your assets (e.g., savings, investments, real estate) and liabilities (e.g., mortgages, student loans, credit card debt). Update this regularly to see how your financial situation is evolving. You can use free online tools or apps to make this process easier.
6. Understand the Basics of Investing and Trading
▪️Why it's important: If you're going to invest or trade, you need to understand the fundamental principles behind both activities. This includes knowledge of risk, returns, diversification, asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate), and how markets operate.
▪️How to do it: Read books, take online courses, or follow credible financial blogs and YouTube channels. It’s important to grasp concepts like risk tolerance, time horizon, and the different types of investments (stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, etc.). Understanding these principles will help you avoid common mistakes and make informed decisions.
GBP/USD – Breakout and Retest SetupWe’ve broken below the support zone, which has now turned into a new resistance level. If the price returns to this level, we could see sellers reenter the market and push the price lower.
Strategy: Watch for confirmation at the retest of this resistance before entering a short position. Stay cautious and manage your risk.
GBP/USD: Pound Soars Following Surprising CPI ReportOn Wednesday, the Pound Sterling (GBP) saw a significant surge against most currencies following the release of unexpected inflation data from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed that annual inflation rose to 2.3% in October, surpassing analysts' forecasts of 2.2% and a notable increase from September's 1.7%.
Month-over-month, the headline inflation climbed by 0.6%, outpacing the anticipated 0.5% and recovering from a stagnant September.
In addition, the core CPI, which excludes fluctuating components such as food, energy, and tobacco, registered a growth of 3.3%. This figure exceeds the previous month's reading of 3.2% and defies economists' predictions of a decline to 3.1%.
Services inflation—a key metric monitored by Bank of England (BoE) policymakers—also picked up, rising to 5% from the earlier figure of 4.9%. This uptick in price pressures may prompt traders to rethink their expectations regarding interest rate cuts in the upcoming BoE meeting scheduled for December.
From a technical analysis perspective, the price action remains within a bullish demand zone, suggesting a strong likelihood of further appreciation in the value of the Pound.
Overall, indications point towards a potential increase in the Pound Sterling's value moving forward.
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+100/+150 pips GBPUSD H11 short/long trade plan🔸Hello traders, let's review the 1hour chart for GBPUSD today.
Solid bounce off the lows in progress, however overhead resistance
will cap any immediate upside.
🔸Key levels for GBPUSD traders: 2625 s/r bulls, 2735 s/r bears,
2775 mirror s/r bears level will get re-tested by the bulls for liquidity.
🔸Recommended strategy for GBPUSD traders: the sequence
is short / long so you want to short high off the s/r bears at 2735 SL 40
TP 2625 pips, this is the W reversal play / re-test of the mirror s/r bulls
at 2625 then flip lonjg at/near 2625+-10 pips SL 40 pips TP1 +75
TP2 +150 pips final exit bulls at mirror s/r at 2775. this is a swing
trade setup, patience required. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
GBP/USD Shows Strength Amid US Dollar WeaknessThe GBP/USD currency pair has gained bullish momentum, appreciating nearly 0.5% on Monday and breaking a six-day losing streak. Currently, the pair is trading within a demand zone, where the potential for a rebound appears plausible.
Bearish pressure on the US Dollar (USD) has contributed to the upward movement in GBP/USD. Additionally, with no significant macroeconomic data set for release, the recent pullback in US Treasury bond yields has hindered the dollar's ability to maintain the gains it achieved the prior week.
Later today, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will address inquiries from the UK Treasury Select Committee, which could further influence market sentiment and the pound's standing.
Traders are now contemplating a potential retracement in the GBP, focusing on how this dynamic might unfold in the wake of ongoing economic developments and central bank dialogue.
✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Trading is not a get rich quick scheme🔸Patience
▪️Market Timing: Not every moment is the right time to trade. Waiting for the ideal setup is crucial. For example, a patient trader waits for patterns, trends, or specific signals to align with their strategy.
▪️Compounding Growth: Wealth through trading often comes from compounding small, consistent gains rather than chasing big wins. This takes time to materialize.
▪️Recovery Time: Losses are inevitable. Patience allows traders to focus on gradual recovery rather than impulsively trying to "win back" losses.
🔸Discipline
▪️Sticking to the Plan: A trading plan is your blueprint. Discipline ensures you execute trades based on logic, not emotion.
▪️Avoiding Overtrading: The temptation to trade constantly can lead to unnecessary risks. A disciplined trader knows when to step back.
▪️Risk Management: Proper position sizing, setting stop losses, and avoiding over-leveraging are all practices rooted in discipline.
🔸Consistent Effort
▪️Continuous Learning: Markets evolve, and so must traders. Keeping up with new strategies, tools, and market conditions is essential.
▪️Routine Analysis: Reviewing past trades to learn what worked and what didn’t helps improve strategies.
▪️Building Experience: Expertise comes from time spent observing patterns, managing emotions, and handling a variety of market scenarios.
🔸Mindset
▪️Long-Term Thinking: Focus on building wealth slowly rather than chasing immediate profits.
▪️Resilience: Markets can be unpredictable. A strong mindset helps traders stay focused after setbacks.
▪️Adaptability: Successful traders adapt their strategies to fit different market conditions instead of forcing trades.
🔸The Journey, Not the Destination
▪️The idea of "getting rich" in trading is often a trap that leads to rushed decisions and excessive risk-taking. Instead, embrace the process:
▪️Track your progress: Measure success in terms of skill improvement, not just profits.
▪️Celebrate small wins: These build confidence and keep you motivated for the long haul.
▪️Remember, trading is a craft—those who approach it with respect, patience, and consistent effort are the ones most likely to achieve sustainable success.
What I wish I knew when I started Trading1. Study and Trade One Pair Only
Focusing on a single currency pair can streamline your learning and help you master market dynamics.
🔸Choose a Pair: Start with major pairs like EUR/USD or USD/JPY. These have high liquidity and predictable patterns.
🔸Understand Its Behavior: Learn the fundamentals and technical characteristics of the pair, such as its volatility, reaction to news, and typical trading hours.
🔸Backtesting and Practice: Use historical data to understand how the pair moves under different market conditions.
2. Losses Are Part of Trading
No trader is immune to losses. Handling them effectively is crucial for long-term success.
Mindset:
🔸Accept Losses as Learning Opportunities: View losses as part of the cost of doing business, akin to inventory in retail.
🔸Detach Emotionally: Avoid the temptation to revenge trade or let losses affect your confidence.
Practical Strategies:
🔸Set Risk Parameters: Only risk 1-2% of your trading account per trade. This limits the damage of a losing streak.
🔸Use Stop Losses: Predetermine the point at which you will exit a trade if it goes against you. This protects you from devastating losses.
🔸Keep a Journal: Document each trade, including reasons for entering, outcomes, and what you learned. Over time, patterns will emerge to guide improvement.
3. Develop Discipline and Patience
🔸Stick to a Trading Plan: Define your entry, exit, and risk management strategies before trading.
🔸Trade Less, Win More: Focus on high-probability setups instead of trading excessively.
🔸Give Yourself Time: Mastery in Forex trading can take years. Trust the process and aim for consistent improvement.
4. Build Resilience to Handle Losses
Self-Care:
🔸Step away from the charts after a big loss to regain perspective.
🔸Engage in activities that reduce stress, like exercise or meditation.
Review and Improve:
🔸Evaluate losing trades to identify errors.
🔸Adjust your strategy if recurring issues are found.
🔸Focus on the Big Picture:
🔸Track your performance over months or years, not days. This helps put individual losses into perspective.
GBP/USD Weakens Around 1.2665 as USD Gains MomentumAs I write, the GBP/USD pair continues to decline, currently hovering near the 1.2665 mark. The recent rally in the US Dollar has driven it to its highest level since November 2023, exerting pressure on the currency pair. Later today, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to address the market, which could influence further movements.
Recent data from the US Department of Labor Statistics indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year in October, aligning with market expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.3% year-on-year, also meeting forecasts. These figures have led analysts to believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its course for potential rate reductions at their upcoming December meeting.
However, concerns are growing over former President Trump’s proposals to impose higher tariffs on imports, which could stoke inflation. This scenario might compel the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary easing strategy. Given the recent CPI data, it appears the US is making only moderate progress in controlling inflation, suggesting fewer interest rate cuts might be on the table for next year. Such dynamics are reinforcing elevated US Treasury yields, further bolstering the value of the USD across the board.
From a technical standpoint, there are two key demand zones to monitor. Recent activity suggests that institutional investors are positioning for long opportunities, and seasonal trends appear to support this outlook. Patience will be crucial as traders await a consistent rebound in either of these two demand areas before considering long positions. For now, the USD is likely to maintain its strength against the GBP and other currencies.
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GBPUSD SharkGBPUSD Completes Shark Harmonic this gives us an insight into future price action and probability suggests we could get a reversal here, however we have to take into precaution CPI data tomorrow and the tail end volatility of the Trump Win, it is however worth an eye. With TP1 at 1.3 and TP2 1.34 offers good risk reward on a potential trade.
GBPUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GBPUSD?
This currency pair is currently moving within a descending channel and trading below its resistance zone. Given the current conditions, after some minor fluctuations and corrections, the price is expected to move towards lower levels.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️