Get started

Pound

EURGBP ShortThere’s been some decent swings in price lately. I believe the reason we witnessed such a dramatic rise and fall in price over the past two weeks was not so much due to euro strengthening over the pound, but because the pound weakened against the dollar more so than the euro. By this I mean that the pace of capital flight from pounds to dollars was more substantial than from euros to dollars. Due to uncertainties around US inflation data and interest rates It was only a matter of time before the latter caught up to the former which happened yesterday. Obviously a lower inflation figure for the pound adds extra selling pressure for the UK but I believe that the EU and UK are largely in a similar situation. Granted the ECB is firm on its next rate rise but I’m comfortable with the risks from here on. Let’s not forget that the UK is still in double digit inflation so a minor tick down is not overly surprising to me. Major central banks will have you believe that inflation is done, job finished. But I don’t buy it, not even close! But I guess we’ll see just how sticky our inflation problems are over the coming months. As you can see from the chart, the price is currently moving within a large ascending triangle (WHITE) with moderate divergence between the price relative to the indicators which suggests weakness when compared to the volume, which is actually quite low I may add. The price had a rejection of the ascending triangle support due to a cooler than expected inflation print. For this reason I believe that if the price can clear the 0.89 area, it will likely rise to the upper limits of the triangle (white) and rising channel (blue), with my POI being around the 0.8970-0.9050 are shown by the white circle. At which point I will be looking to sell this pair in anticipation of a move to the downside and continuing lower to 0.87’s. If the the price struggles to clear the 0.89 area then I will wait for a lower price sell confirmation. If the fundamentals have a shock surprise in store then I will reassess the situation and position myself accordingly. That being said, I believe this pair is still open to significant moves following US fundamentals as the US economy seems to still be running hot as can be seen from last months jobs report and today’s retail sales. Both coming in significantly higher than expected which will force Powells hand to turn up the dial on interest rates in a bid to calm inflation. As such, US data must be factored-in when deciding to trade this pair as recently, it is each currencies respective weakness to the dollar and not each other that seems to be the underlying theme. POI - sell around 0.900 area TP1 - 0.8770 TP2 - 0.8750 TP3 - 0.8720 If the price struggles to clear 0.89 (stranger things have happened) then i will likely wait for a clean break of the ascending triangle (white) before deciding to sell the pair. I asses my SL based on risk factors. It is not a mechanical percentage calculation. As always this is just a basic overview of my opinion and is not a detailed analysis so please do your own analysis and always trade with caution.
by jamesfrench73
EURGBP potential reversal zoneHi; EURGBP has been examined in different dimensions: 1- Strong supply and demand levels that I identify with my own indicator and system. 2- The structure of recently formed waves 3- Current market momentum 4- The structure of classical and price patterns In this idea, I identified the direction of the market in different ways and in the second step, I analyzed the potential of continuation or reversal. Usually, paying attention to the trend and strength of the trend can greatly increase the accuracy of the analysis. In general, I tried to describe the continuation of the movement in the simplest possible way in the diagram. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a personal opinion and you are responsible for any trading decisions.
Short
by HamidRamezani1992
2
GBPUSD: Big Fundamentals - New Brexit Deal this weekend?We could be a kicking off the week with a lot of GBP movement if there is a new trade deal reached between the UK and Europe over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Today, Dominic Raab (the UK Deputy PM) told the BBC that the 'UK is on the cusp' of securing a new Brexit deal on Northern Ireland. I'm also seeing GU decline slowing and possibly at the end of it's retracement, DXY also seems to be slowing (it doesn't seem to matter how well their economy is doing, the bears seem to be in control for now), so I'm looking for longs on this pair at the start of next week. We should test recent highs around 1.24 and a break through would open the door to test the 1.26's. If a new Brexit deal is reached this weekend I expect a quick uplift, but I think 'being close to a deal' is enough to see this pair grow over the coming days. This trade gives a 1:3 RR minimum if it works out, I'll be keeping a close eye on the news and the Asian open later!
Long
by Finchcliffe
1
GBPUSDGBPUSD has been examined in different dimensions: 1- Strong supply and demand levels that I identify with my own indicator and system. 2- The structure of recently formed waves 3- Current market momentum 4- The structure of classical and price patterns In this idea, I identified the direction of the market in different ways and in the second step, I analyzed the potential of continuation or reversal. Usually, paying attention to the trend and strength of the trend can greatly increase the accuracy of the analysis. In general, I tried to describe the continuation of the movement in the simplest possible way in the diagram. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a personal opinion and you are responsible for any trading decisions.
Short
by HamidRamezani1992
1
GBPAUDHi guys!" GBPAUD has been examined in different dimensions: 1- Strong supply and demand levels that I identify with my own indicator and system. 2- The structure of recently formed waves 3- Current market momentum 4- The structure of classical and price patterns In this idea, I identified the direction of the market in different ways and in the second step, I analyzed the potential of continuation or reversal. Usually, paying attention to the trend and strength of the trend can greatly increase the accuracy of the analysis. In general, I tried to describe the continuation of the movement in the simplest possible way in the diagram. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a personal opinion and you are responsible for any trading decisions.
Short
by HamidRamezani1992
1
GBPJPY sellAfter our Trade from yesterday, we have a new setup for today. Asia closed good. The price will spicke into our OB or even session high and then probably drop. If you want you can wait for a confirmation on a lower time frame, where you search for a ChoCH and an OB. $JPYBASKET is also about to hit our OB so that a reversal has a good change to happen. But I will enter directly when it hits our OB. Entry:162.050 SL: 162.200 TP1: 161.472 TP2: 160.500 TP3: 160.150 Would not recommend to risk more than 1%. Please like and comment what you think!
Short
by Ramzftmo
3
GBP/USD grinds higher, but bears eye break of 1.20US producer prices, manufacturing and housing data in focus No miracles will be expected for US housing data given the Fed’s hikes, but it will be interesting to see if the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index contracts at a much faster pace, like the NY State Empire equivalent did yesterday. And with US retail sales hitting a near 2-year high and inflation hotter than expected, all evidence points towards a soft landing for the US and a case for more hikes. And that view could be bolstered if US producer prices come in hotter than expected today – and it could further support the US dollar on hawkish bets. GBP/USD 1-hour chart: Whilst GBP/USD has dragged itself from its post-CPI lows, key resistance looms and momentum could favour further downside. Yesterday’s soft-than-expected inflation report for the UK came as a welcomed surprise, which helped the pound quickly erase all of Tuesday’s hot employment gains. After briefly trading below 1.20, GBP/USD has produced a countertrend move in the form of a potential bear channel / flag. Given the relative hawkishness of the Fed and strong US data, my bias for GBP/USD to break below 1.20. So I’m now looking for evidence of a swing high around or below the weekly and daily pivot points (a break above which invalidates the bearish bias). Note that the downside band of 1-day implied volatility is just beneath the daily and weekly S1 pivots, and the downside band for 1-week IV is just below 1.1800.
Short
by CityIndex
1