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Pound

InvestMateGBP/JPY Attention, strong line of resistance ahead💷💴GBP/JPY Attention, strong line of resistance ahead. 💷💴That's as I wrote some time ago about the upside on this pair. Link below: 💷💴Now it's time to refresh the topic and give you my latest view. 💷💴As we can see the Pound is not giving up and is trundling forward with most forex pairs. 💷💴I determined the support zone based on the cluster of fibo levels of 0.382 of the entire last downward correction and the level of 0.886 of the entire downward wave measured from peak to bottom visible on the chart. It can be seen that the price has repeatedly found this level as resistance but also as support in the past. 💷💴The resistance zone results from a cluster of also 2 fibo levels. It is a double of the 1.272 level of the same waves as the support zone. This combination creates a really strong zone. 💷💴Beginning with the fact that GBP/JPY is in an uptrend of several years, I don't think getting this level will be a major problem. 💷💴The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the upside to the resistance zone where I will be watching closely to see how price reacts. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook would change I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 💷💴 *Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Long
by InvestMate
7
EUR/GBP No chance for growth💶💷💶💷EUR/GBP No chance for growth. 💶💷As I have written many times before, my opinion remains unchanged, I still believe that we are in for declines on the EUR/GBP pair. 💶💷Link to previous posts: 💶💷I am again bringing you an Update to give you my perspective and current thoughts. 💶💷The chart has been updated with new support and resistance levels. 💶💷 Let's start with the resistance level we are at. 💶💷It was determined by a cluster of fibo levels. The first is the 0.618 level of the entire upward wave from bottom to top, the second is the 0.786 level of the entire recent upward correction. As you can see, the price has repeatedly found either resistance or support at these points. 💶💷 There are support zones ahead in the south direction. 💶💷The first one was determined by the 1.272 level of the entire upward correction and we can see that the price has paid attention to this price level in the past. 💶💷The second was determined from a cluster of levels. The first is the 0.786 level of the entire bottom-to-peak wave and the second is the outer level of 1.618 of the last upward correction. 💶💷The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of declines to support zones with the possibility of corrections along the way. If the perspective would change I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 💶💷*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
21
GBPUSD Sideways Following Record Lows!The GBPUSD made record lows in September this year. Price declined to a new all-time low at 1.0356 as it passed the low of February 1985 which was at 1.0520. The British pound has strengthened since then, rising up 16%. And in doing so it has moved back into the long-term consolidation zone. Within consolidation, price is currently around the 1.2000 round number which may hold as resistance. But ultimately we are waiting for a breakout of consolidation resistance at 1.4376 or support at 1.1409. Patience will be require for this asset as it could take months or years before a setup occurs. If you enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
by Sublime_Trading
GBPUSD bull continuation From HSBC this morning: The UK PMIs were both unchanged from their October levels in November, with manufacturing at 46.2 (consensus: 45.8), and services at 48.8 (consensus: 48.0). This marked the fourth consecutive month in which the composite PMI (48.3) was below 50, indicating a contraction in private sector activity, with the surveyors reporting that “squeezed client budgets continued to hit demand in both the manufacturing and service sectors”. In manufacturing, some indices, like output and new orders, ticked up, but remained well below 50. But the pace of job losses accelerated (chart 1) and the new export orders index dropped to its lowest since May 2020. According to S&P Global, “many survey respondents commented on Brexit-related constraints on export demand in November, in addition to the unfavorable global economic backdrop”. Not all bad news It was not all bad news: supply chain indicators for manufacturers continued to improve, and survey respondents said that fewer issues on this front had helped to lift production volumes in November. Meanwhile, services business confidence rose a little, as fewer respondents cited domestic political uncertainty as a concern. Remarkably, the service sector continues to be in hiring mode, albeit with the employment index falling to a 21-month low. The price indices continue to tell a broadly disinflationary story, though the services input price index rose again, after five months of declines. Implications The best we can say here is that these numbers are a little better than expected (though not by us: we had looked for a small bounce given the UK’s new-found relative political stability). We have a new PM and a new fiscal plan – and although the latter actually increased borrowing this year and next – and kicked the tough decisions into the long grass (see Back(loaded) to the future, 17 November 2022 – that appears to have been enough for the market for now. It seems UK businesses are less impressed, though: increased political stability was a factor cited by S&P Global in the slightly improved composite confidence index – but this only rose to its second lowest since May 2020. Indeed, there was little in the Autumn Statement for firms. For them, the freeze on energy prices is set to expire in April, with little support to offset this for those outside the hospitality sector. This underscores the scale of the challenge facing the new PM, in what should be his honeymoon period. We think the UK is in recession (as do the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility) – • The UK PMIs were unchanged in November, compared with October, with manufacturing at 46.2 (consensus: 45.8) and services at 48.8 (consensus: 48.0) • Price and supply chain indices continue to tell a tale of broad improvement… but the survey backs up the view shared by ourselves, the BoE, and the OBR that the UK is now in recession and these sub-50 PMIs attest to that. While there is clearly some improvement in the goods price inflation outlook – and we revised down our profile for CPI inflation next year, on the back of the new household energy cap that was announced last week – underlying pressures are still elevated. The rebound in the service input cost index is a reminder that the wage growth piece of the inflation puzzle is far from resolved. ------ The price action tells you everything you need to know. The markets used the UK PMI to rally as the US dollar dropped as we get closer to the FOMC reducing their rate hike cycle.
Long
by Macrobriefing
Time for the Sterling to revist supportPrice has formed a rising wedge formation seen on lower time frames, confirmed by decreasing volume as it tests Aug 1.20x support as resistance. This also marked a 50% retracement on higher TF (clear on Daily), showing high demand for selling and a slowing bullish momentum, also confirmed by ST as it shows a peak at 1.2025. Key levels to watch are: 1.119x (50% retracement on lower TF), 1.176x of Jul lows and obviously the 1.20x local resistance level.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn11898468
GBP/USD Decline is coming💷💵💷💵GBP/USD Decline is coming 💷💵This post is a continuation of my previous post: 💷💵Following the recent rises which I predicted below: 💷💵The time has come to attack the declines again. 💷💵We are at a very interesting resistance zone determined by the cluster of levels at 0.618 of the entire downward wave and 0.236 of the largest upward correction. 💷💵I still believe that we are in for declines on this pair. 💷💵I am looking out for the nearest support around the cluster of levels 1.618 of the largest upward correction and 1.618 of the current upward momentum. 💷💵The scenario I am playing out is a descent continuation of the declines with a target level at the support zone. 💷💵*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
13
InvestMate|GBP/USD Worth the risk?💷💵💷💵GBP/USD Worth the risk? 💷💵That's how I recently predicted the first downward impulse on GBP/USD: 💷💵This time it is time for an update and to broaden my perspective on this pair. 💷💵Begin with the fact that since 25 September the Pound on all pairs has shown strength and a massive wave of strengthening of this currency has started since the breakout of new lows. 💷💵We've had a couple of major corrections along the way, but looking at this indecision from investors about the direction we would take and the lack of willingness to buy. I am inclined to think there is a good chance of seeing a clear downward correction at the current point. 💷💵The place where it could end has been marked by a support zone that I have determined based on a cluster of two levels. The first level is the 0.5 fibo level of the entire upward wave that started after the largest downward correction in the current uptrend. The second is the 1:1 level of the largest downward correction in the current upward wave that started on 25 September. 💷💵I have also determined a resistance zone based on the space between the 0.5 and 0.618 levels of the largest upward wave from the peak. 💷💵The scenario I'm playing out is the start of the next wave of weakness in the pound against the dollar, taking into account smaller corrections along the way which, in the perspective of the next weeks, will end at the support zone marked on the chart. 💷💵*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
1
InvestMate|EUR/GBP Prepare for pound strengthening 💶💷💶💷EURR/GBP Prepare for pound strengthening . 💶💷In the current post we will again look at the situation on the EUR/GBP pair which I have described in previous posts: 💶💷This time I wanted to update some levels. 💶💷As we can see the EUR/GBP behaved exactly as I described in the previous post. 💶💷We broke through a strong support zone which we currently treat as resistance. It results from two measurements. The first is the level 0.618 of the entire upward wave and the second is the level 0.5 of the last upward impulse. 💶💷The support zone has also been updated with a new level of 0.786 which with the outer level of 1.272 of the entire last upward correction forms a cluster. As can be seen, price has also reacted at these levels in the past. I therefore consider it to be relevant. 💶💷The scenario that I have been playing out for almost weeks now is a gradual weakening of the euro against the pound with the aim of falling to the support zone and waiting there for a possible upward correction of the new downtrend. 💶💷*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
3
What Now With GBPUSD ?- Key points: 1- The fall statement came in the context of weak economic growth, high inflation rates and high interest rates. The Office of the Balance Sheet projected that the UK would be in recession from the third quarter which would last for just over a year until the third quarter of 2023, with GDP falling 2.1% during that time. 2- Retail sales volumes are estimated to have increased 0.6% in October 2022 after a 1.5% decline in September (revised from a 1.4% decline) which was affected by the additional state funeral bank holiday. 3- On November 3, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced that it had raised interest rates for the eighth consecutive meeting. Rates were raised 0.75 percentage points to 3.0%, the largest increase since "Black Wednesday" in 1992. - Technical Analysis: Diving into the technical part, we can see that there's a bearish structure starting from level 1.18700 approx. on the daily timeframe. In addition to that, considering 50&200 MA's starting from 1 hour timeframe is taking a downtrend path, which means things will take time on the daily until things payoff a bit and go bearish. Now speaking of oscillators, even from the daily and down they're all taking the downtrend path. Same with MACD, starting from 4H, and getting to the peak on daily before breaking down. Now channels, donchian, supertrend; were kind of reaching the peak on the daily while as on smaller ones they already broke down. Now, as a nutshell, all these meetings the EoB and the UK did during the last week, due to their importance and the reports they gave in which everyone was waiting for to know what's next, was very necessary to the currency as well for traders to know what path the GBP will take for the next days or even weeks. Now for those who are asking what's the next checkpoint if it went bearish? Well, on smaller timeframes, like the 1H and 2H, there is a major orderblock on a level of 1.17670 approx. In which the price would go for a reversal, or break down more. And to do so, economical events must play it's major role. It depends on interest rates and inflation, as well as the CPI, stuff like these...
Short
by JawadShoukeir
1
InvestMate|EUR/GBP Didn't I say so?💶💷💶💷EUR/GBP Didn't I say so? 💶💷As I wrote in my last post about the coming dips, as usual I was not wrong, this time it was time for an update. Link to the post below: 💶💷We will start with the fact that we broke through an important support zone and reached the 0.618 level from where I expect a retest of last resistance, the current support. 💶💷The new strong support zone I determined based on the measurement of the external fibo: 1.272 and levels where price has found resistance in the past. 💶💷 I expect a continuation of the downtrend which can only gain strength in the coming months. 💶💷💷The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the southward direction, not excluding a test of the current resistance zone. 💶💷For fundamental data justifying the declines, I refer again to the previous post. 💶💷*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
10
InvestMate|EUR/GBP Continued declines💶💷💶💷EUR/GBP Continued declines. 💶💷This time it's time for the EUR/GBP pair. 💶💷Over a while has passed since my last post on this one. Enough time for the sellers to attack again. 💶💷That's just like my bearish attitude. 💶💷I will briefly outline the fundamental situation of both currencies. 💶Beginning with the Euro: 💶Looking at economic growth in the Eurozone we are at levels of 2.1% This is quite average looking at the past. 💶 Unemployment in the Eurozone is falling the latest readings on 3 November showed us falling to levels of 6.6% compared to last year's reading of 6.7%. 💶 Ahead of us next week, on 17 November to be exact, are the readings on inflation, which stood at 10.7% on 31 October. The market is betting on inflation slowing down. In the coming months. Which may reduce the push for the next interest rate hike. 💶 Eurozone interest rates were raised by 75 basis points at the last counci meeting on 27 October to levels of 2%. 💷Now what is the situation in the UK: 💷 UK economic growth also slows is currently 2.4%. 💷We will find out about unemployment tomorrow 15 November. We are currently at 3.5%. The market is not entirely convinced whether we will maintain this level or increase. tradingeconomics.com 💷Inflation continues to rise we have 10.1% so far but the market expects a further rise, which may prompt the monetary policy council to remain mostly hawkish. 💷 Rates were raised to 3% on 3 November and so far there is no sign of us slowing down in the near future. 💷I would also like to add that a few weeks ago the Central Bank of England announced unlimited asset purchases which may influence the strengthening of the pound. 💶💷We see that the situation supports the upside scenario on the pound. 💶💷Transforming to the chart I will outline all the tools used in turn: 💶💷1 I have plotted a downward channel from peak to low. As we can see the price was in this channel for a long period of time and then the breakout occurred. 💶💷2. I determined the upward channel of the current upward correction. From which we broke out to the bottom and have now returned to the edge again. 💶💷2 I then measured the wave from peak to bottom using the fibo. 💶💷3. I determined the fibo wave from bottom to top to find future support zones. 💶💷4. I measured using the fibo grid the last downward wave of the current upward impulse. 💶💷4. I measured the largest downward wave in the downtrend and set a correction level of 1:1 💶💷5 I determined 3 support lines. (1). Around the 0.618 level of the wave of the current uptrend. (2). The zone at the last low plus is the 0.618 level of the largest downward wave. (3). The cluster of the 1.618 level of the current upward impulse plus the 1:1 level of the largest downward wave. 💶💷6. I have determined 2 resistance zones. (1). Based on the 0.236 level of the current uptrend, we can see that this has also been a vulnerable area in the past. (2). Based on the 0.382 level of the entire downward wave, also the price has respected this price level in the past. Currently, this resistance represents the top of the current impulse. 💶💷The scenario I am playing out is a gradual continuation of the weakening of the euro against the pound with minor corrections along the way. We are currently at an intervening price point. 💶💷*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
13
InvestMate|GBP/USD Where to join the declines?💷💵💷💵GBP/USD Where to join the declines? 💷💵Post is a direct continuation of a previous post in which I wrote about dips: 💷💵As we can see, my prediction came true and there were dips caused by the weakening of the US dollar against other pairs. 💷💵On the chart I have marked a potential place where the price could find resistance and restart the continuation of the declines. 💷💵I have marked it based on the 0.382 level of the entire downward wave and the 0.5 level of the last downward wave. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Long
by InvestMate
4
EURGBP Short following UK CPIfrom Caxton Daily Market View GBP- High UK CPI Data Causes GBP Rally Figures for UK YoY CPI released early this morning showed inflation increasing at a higher rate than the 10.7% markets had expected. In the aftermath of the news GBP snapped a four day rally against USD, likely as the market begins to cool after last weeks extended bull run. The figures put BoE Governor Bailey under heavy pressure to hike the rate by another 75bps in December. However, Bailey has recently voiced his concerns about the decline in the UK housing market and weak GDP growth. His speech at 13:30 today will hopefully clarify what the BoE plans to do in response to the figures. from ING GBP: BoE speakers in focus Bank of England speakers will be in focus today after the release of the October CPI data. This is expected to be peaking around the 11%year-on-year level around now. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and colleagues testify to the Treasury Select Committee at 1515CET today. We suspect the message will be very much the same as that given at the policy meeting earlier this month - i.e. do not expect 75bp hikes to become common and that the market pricing of the tightening cycle is too aggressive. GBP/USD briefly peaked over 1.20 yesterday. We think 1.20 is a good level to hedge GBP receivables. Equally, we have a slight preference for EUR/GBP staying over 0.8700. Tomorrow is the big event risk of the autumn budget - which on paper should be sterling negative. So all eyes are on the UK and GBP when the Bank of England governor speaks from now on. As if they weren't already. The GBP has declined every time the BoE has raised rates. CPI y/y came in above expectations at 11.1% v's 10.7% Core CPI y/y stays at 6.5% PPI Input m/m is down to 0.6% from 0.9% Double-digit inflation will not make the BoE MPC pivot from their current monetary policy
Short
by Macrobriefing
GBP/USD analysis: BoE hikes needed to curb gilts' term premiumFinally unveiled, the UK government's Autumn Budget was conservative and cautious, in line with market expectations. A fiscal consolidation of £55 billion has been announced, to be split evenly between more taxes and lower spending. From the next year until 2028, windfall taxes on oil and gas companies will increase from 25% to 35%, while the Energy Price Guarantee programme (EPS) has been revised to cut down on government spending. These two measures dominate the UK's fiscal adjustment. But now that the threat of losing the anchor of fiscal credibility has ended, sterling investors are once again confronted with the reality of the UK economic outlook. Inflation is expected to average 7.4% in 2023, but GDP will shrink 1.4% due to the recession. A higher and more persistent inflation rate requires the Bank of England to maintain its restrictive stance for a longer period of time. Furthermore, the longer inflation stays high, the more difficult it will be for gilts to lure buyers to these negative real yields, especially since the BoE will restart quantitative tightening in late November. GBP/USD has risen from 1.036 to 1.203 following the reversal of September's mini-budget, primarily due to lower gilt yields, as recovered market confidence in fiscal policy has stimulated demand for UK sovereign bonds. Gilt yields likely bottomed out before the UK Autumn Budget, as the market had largely anticipated the fiscal consolidation, and could now resume a natural upward repricing, not in a disorderly fashion, but adequately to reflect a high inflation/high interest rate environment. The outlook for the pound is now dependent on the Bank of England's policies. Hawkish BoE = Neutral/bullish scenario for the pound If the BoE turns out to be more hawkish than expected – markets are currently pricing in 60bps in December and terminal rate of 4.5% next year – it can better control inflationary expectations and pressures. In this scenario, UK interest rates will increase quicker than UK 10-year gilt yields, limiting the term premium and enhancing policy credibility. This is a favourable scenario for the pound, as it can restrict the downside and discourage speculators from shorting a currency with a high yield. Dovish BoE = Bearish scenario for the pound In contrast, if the BoE delivers fewer rate hikes than the market currently predicts, inflation expectations will not be restrained and long-term gilt yields would rise faster than UK interest rates, effectively placing downside pressure on the pound.
by Capitalcom