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Pounddollar

GBPUSD - Upward channel ready to break!GBPUSD is in an upward channel that started in September 2020. While no one can predict the exact timing of a big market move, the way the pound dollar goes up it's telling us that at least a bigger correction is coming. Our analysis tells us that a down move is bound to happen soon. Trade with care. Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. We do not recommend making hurried trading decisions. You should always understand the risk that trading implies and that PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Short
by FractalTrading
GBPUSD Entering Key LONG TERM Zone - Multi-Timeframe AnalysisLike some other USD pairs, GBPUSD closed within a key zone on long term timeframes. *If this is helpful please LIKE or COMMENT so I know whether to keep sharing these charts* MONTHLY (see main chart) We have again entered a KEY pivot zone (yellow parallels) and approaching median line of major downtrend pitchfork (PF). We attempted to enter this zone in September but eventually rejected off the trendline (TL) from 2007 high to form a false break scenario. However October we failed to move lower and the November candle closed INSIDE the lower yellow parallel. If the December closes above this TL and above the yellow parallel we can look for a test of the Median line last tested in 2018 early 2021. NOTE: If we close the month BELOW these levels (have to be sub 1.30 figure) the MONTHLY outlook stays neutral. Weekly We are currently trading within an UPTREND PF joining 2016 low, 2018 high and 2020 low. We closed the week right at resistance on the median line basically on the 2018 OPEN. On a WEEKLY basis we have closed above the 2007 TL BUT as you can see its a bit messy so while it is a guide the pitchfork levels are KEY. We would need a WEEKLY CLOSE above the median line to signal a bullish breakout scenario BUT be aware just like the monthly PF the 14.4% parallel around the median line may act like a pivot zone. Upper target zone would be the yellow 23.6% retracement confluent with the MONTHLY median line in blue (1.37~) to the weekly 14.4% parallel confluent with 2009 high week close (HWC) at 1.3790. Lower target if we breakdown initially is 2020 Open at 1.3253, then the GAP at 1.3230, then the December low at 1.3134. Daily On top of the UPTREND PF shown in the weekly we have also been following another UPTREND PF on the Daily in GREEN. On Thursday we found resistance on the upper 25% line of GREEN PF and retraced back to the 2018 OPEN to close Friday. To remain bullish we need to stay ABOVE the 14.4% parallel. The BULLISH and BEARISH targets are the same as on the WEEKLY chart BUT if we push lower look for the Trendline we have tested 4 times since the May low that is confluent with the October high day close (HDC) at 1.3141. If we breakdown further it really is the 1.30 figure then 1.2850~ and 2019 OPEN at 1.2754. Intraday (4hr) You can see intraday we are also following an UPTREND PF. We did break below 2 weeks ago only to gap back inside and push higher (on the apparently positive BREXIT news). The only additional information here is you can see we closed the week sitting on top of the September high. Due to the volatility I've been trading off the GREEN PF primarily BUT if you are a scalper this near term structure may help you. Just remember we are BULLISH while inside the near term PF so I will be very careful getting overly bearish. On a break I'll look for some near term structure to guide me.
by Kei_Capital
1
GBPUSD Top-Down Analysis (Short then Long otherwise Long)Hello Traders, Here is the Top-Down Analysis of GBPUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for Week 52 - Dec 21 M > Market is respecting multi-year downward trend-line as resistance however this month it has broken resistance trend-line to the upside. W > Price is also respecting rising trend-line on a weekly chart. During its bullish move price has broken two key resistance levels and it further tested next weekly resistance. Bearish divergence can be seen. D > As per analysis 2 weeks ago, and dropping for correction and testing daily support price moved bullish breaking two key resistance levels and faced rejection at third resistance. In the process created bullish flag. Price dropped to retest monthly resistance as support and moved up after facing rejection. Bearish divergence can be seen. As per COT GBP closed both Long and Short, bringing net positions to +ve after 10 weeks. BXY strengthened during the said period and further strengthened last week to test weekly resistance last week. BXY returned back to test previous weekly resistance now turned support suggesting possible bullish continuation further. However we can see bearish divergence in W and D timeframes. 4H > Price broke monthly support to the downside while dropping and facing rejection at daily support. It is now testing monthly support as resistance again. Price closed the week with rejection at curly key level. We can expect two scenarios: 1. Price drops to test weekly support coinciding with major demand zone, it will also create a H & S pattern. This level also coincides with downward trend-line that price has broken this month and it is fair for price to return to test the multi-year trend-line as support. This will be a short term scenario as price will move bullish from this level. 2. Price can continue with its bullish move breaking monthly resistance that it tested at close of market last week. Pair Correlation > GBPUSD has positive correlation with NZDUSD, NZDJPY, GBPJPY and AUDUSD on daily time frame and with GBPCHF and GBPCAD on smaller time frame. This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions. Thank You AP17FX
Long
by AP17FX
GBPUSD emerging from years long bear trend and going back upBritish Pound/USD is giving us signs that we might begin to see a reversal to the bear trend that has lasted for 13-14 years. 1Y TF white energy is just starting to move up and about to cross the 50 mid-line. Unlike in 2014, where the white energy failed to move above 50 and dropped back down along with green line as the price stair-stepped down, this time the red RSI is at a much lower position where the green line and the white energy may not bounce off of it again, and I think there is a decent chance we may see the white energy go above 50 mid-line in the next 1Y candle. In the meantime, in the lower TFs such as 6M and 4M, we are seeing signs of a budding upward momentum brewing as the price started going back up and above weekly 200 EMA that we have been trading under for almost 7 years now. It is likely to see GBP continue to appreciate for several more months before any mid-long term, months-long correction phase is to take place. In the long term I personally believe that we are going to continue to see the price go up. For a long term investor, it may be a good time to started moving your assets into GBP seeing it has the potential to continue to rise in value. Alternatively, one could wait until the 1Y white energy crosses above 50 for confirmation of upward momentum before getting in. FOREX markets aren't necessarily a playground for scalpers; one could very well do swing trades with GBP. At this point, for the foreseeable few months, I do believe we are at a spot where a mid-long term swing long would be profitable.
Long
by Popovich