Pounddollar
Pound to Trend HigherWith all the uncertainty in the UK economy due to BREXIT with have seen a shape decline of the pound against the US during 2019, with a sudden surge in the last quarter of 2019.
What I see playing out is a cup and handle formation appearing in the chart as shown by the blue line in the chart.
All the pullbacks on low volume testing the 1.3000 level, we have a strong buy signal on the ADX, as D+ crosses D- above 20 with the SAR indicator giving us the go signal.
The OBV confirming the moves it has broken back above and retesting the 233 WMA.
All this I believe will lead to a stronger pound through 2020.
Buying the pound is one of the best deals in FOREX American races in the gold and oil markets, caused by the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, diverted the attention of traders and analysts from the UK and the pound. As a result, the latter, together with the dollar, even yesterday tried to test the key support of 1.30.
At the same time, the news that on Thursday the House of Commons of the British Parliament approved the bill on Britain’s exit from the European Union went completely unnoticed. 330 Johnson voted for Johnson’s agreement, 231 against. Once again: an event took place, to which Britain went for several years, and the pound has not changed by a hundred points.
Just in case, we recall that in the spring of 2018, only on the expectations of the transaction, when it was still very far from the vote, the pound rose to 1.41-1.43.
Now there is not only a deal on the table with all its conditions, but also a parliamentary vote for this very deal.
We consider this situation to be completely abnormal. The pound has clearly accumulated upside potential and is only waiting for the team. Recall that the growth potential of the GBP/USD pair is measured in hundreds of points and our goal for 2020 remains unchanged - 1.41. From current prices, it is more than 1000 profit points!
As for the reasons for concern (Johnson deadlines, the possible easing of monetary policy by the Bank of England, weak economic data), most of them are either hypothetical threats, not actual ones, and some play into the hands of a successful Brexit rather than against it.
For example, recently published statistics on annual retail sales in the UK. The data for the first time in the history of observations have gone into the negative zone! Causal relationships with Brexit can be seen quite clearly. But we see this as an extremely clear signal that the only way to prevent a crisis in the economy is to agree with the EU on a trade agreement and minimize damage. That is, weak data, paradoxically, strategically play into the hands of the pound, as they increase Johnson’s tractability and contractability.
Still some good buying pressure in GBPOn the chart above you can see two falling wedges in the bullish market which resulted in two strong breakouts above EMA 50. This points to strong bullish pressure on the 15M chart. Also we see that RSI approaches lower bound (30 points) around which it is expected to rebound as it happened in three previous cases (shown by blue shaded areas). Note that RSI reversals from lower bounds work better in during up-trending markets which we currently observe.
Trade setup:
BUY GBPUSD.
Entry point 1 - 1.30845, Entry 2 - 1.30645
Take Profit 1.31450
Stop Loss 1.30420
Don't miss the great buy opportunity in GBPUSDTrading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (1.3100). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. GBPUSD is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
.The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 58.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.3225
TP2= @ 1.3350
TP3= @ 1.3515
SL= Break below S2
Don't miss the great buy opportunity in GBPUSDTrading suggestion:
. There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (1.3100). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Technical analysis:
. GBPUSD is in a range bound and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
.The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 58.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.3225
TP2= @ 1.3350
TP3= @ 1.3515
SL= Break below S2
GBPUSD Trade Idea Sell to BuyEqual lows right above where the next 61.8 fibonacci retracement is. Also a whole number (1.27000) and could be the end of the correction and beginning of next bullish cycle.
Next target is 2.618, as 1.618 has been breached over the last two weeks. Expecting a liquidity grab before moving up. Maybe even as low as 1.26000. If price does travel down that way, would just have to watch for signs of a floor.
Notice how 3.618 (target 3) is right above the overall target (and major liquidity zone) which is also easily seen on the weekly chart.
2.618 is also the bottom of the distribution zone.
Gbp/Usd (Reverse Head And Shoulders Still In The Making) Check out the chart! I have been trading this pattern for a while now with great success!!! I knew it was a long shot in the beginning... but this thing is actually looking like it will happen now!!
Im still holding a sell!!! Im planning on holding this sell for as long as I can but still trying to be careful! I think price will at least drop to the line on the chart you see here!!!!
Tell me what you think folks!!!
See the Related Idea from a while back!!!
Look GBP/USD for New OpportunitiesSterling dips mildly as new development puts the prospect of no-deal Brexit back on table. The newly elected House of Commons will likely have its first vote on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement on Friday, which will likely be passed with the Conservative’s majority.
However, it’s reported that Boris Johnson will attempt to include text in the legislation that prevents the government from extending the transition period, beyond end of 2020. The move is believed to be based on the Conservative’s manifesto of not extending the implementation first. However, that would also give UK and EU only 11 months to complete the negotiation of a trade agreement, something which usually takes years.
Without further escalation, the market could buy the dips initially, considering this headline off to political posturing as PM Johnson is trying to sweeten the deal with the EU.
GBP/USD bulls can be looking for dips to 1.3200 to buy. Specially, we believe that the 1.30 region underneath should continue to be a bit of a “floor” in this market, as it is the top of the last bullish flag. If the H4 candle close above 1.32 we buying with the nearest target at 1.3422 before to see eventual retesting of 1.3515. The Stop Loss should be putted under 1.30.
What do you think?
Elliott Wave View: GBPUSD Should Remain SupportedShort term Elliott Wave view on GBPUSD suggests the rally from November 9, 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. On the chart below, wave 2 of the impulsive structure ended at 1.282. Wave 3 higher remains in progress and subdivides as an impulse in lesser degree. Up from 1.282, wave ((i)) ended at 1.2951 as 5 waves impulse. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 1.2878 as a zigzag.
Pair then resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 1.3121 as a 5 waves. There is a separation within wave ((iii)) confirming it is the strongest wave. Pullback in wave ((iv)) is proposed complete at 1.3085. Expect pair to extend higher 1 more leg in wave ((v)) and this should also end wave 3 in larger degree. Afterwards, pair should pullback in wave 4 to correct cycle from November 23 low before the rally resumes. As the right side stamp is green and higher, our bias is to the upside and we don’t like selling the pair. As far as pivot at 1.282 low stays intact, we expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
GBP Try to Gain Momentum on Uncertain Polls GBP is the only gainer vs USD since the beginning of the week as opinion polls suggest the Conservatives could win with as much as a 48-pt majority in next week's elections.
While most GBP bulls appear to be anticipating a Tories majority victory, a Tories win without majority (hung parliament) would depend on the make-up of the possible coalition. An unlikely Labour-Conservatives coalition would be GBP-negative, while a Tories-LibDem coalition is seen the preferred coalition scenario for GBP. A Labour-LibDem outcome would be the worst of these ouctomes.
From technical point of view, GBP/USD still struggle around upper border of the flag on a daily chart. The consolidation from 1.3012 is still in progress and could extend further. The move is bullish and momentum remains to the upside until the pound is trading above 50-day and 100-day SMAs.
On the upside, break of 1.3012 will resume the whole rally from 1.1958 to 1.3180 firstly. The medium-term bullish target stays at 1.33.
For now, the downside pressure should be contained by 1.2769 support. However, break of 1.2769 will bring deeper fall back to the key support area 1.2582/00.
What do you think?
GBPUSD Short to continue the trend down to 1.280GBPUSD is forming somewhat of a leisurely downtrend on the 4-hour chart, lower highs, and lower lows. An impulse move from 1.292 brought price down, which is now the resistance point to watch for on the retrace for a continued move lower. If that support breaks we will see 1.280. If the price moves past that we will expect 1.295 to hold resistance so the FX pair doesn't print a higher high.
It becomes way more bearish if 1.292 holds resistance. This is based on price action and market structure. If long wicks form at this resistance then there will be a strong push to the downside.
GBP/USD in breakout modeFundamentally, we are waiting for the general elections in early December.
We had negative , below expectations figures today for the UK PMIs.
Technically, sterling is trading in a slightly down channel which could be a bull flag given a very fast recovery from all time lows recently.
On the daily chart, we have 2 scenarios:
1- prices keep trading in a range and forms a rectangle, which is a continuation pattern (bullish).
2- prices complete a triple top formation and breaks to the downside (bearish).
In my opinion, the catalyst will be the results of the elections soon..
Good luck
GBPUSD - WEEKLY LONGS - TEXTBOOK BUY SETUPGbpusd - Weekly chart looks rather interesting considering the upcoming general election for UK is due next month. Price is trading in a clean bullish structure on weekly timeframes and I'm anticipating price to pull back up from the highlighted weekly support level which coincides with fib 61.8 level.