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Pounddollar

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 12, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair fluctuated between weak gains and minor losses around the 1.29000 mark during the Asian session on Friday and remains within striking distance of the yearly peak reached the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) is attracting some buyers on the back of a good rise in US Treasury yields and is moving away from the near three-month low reached the day before, which in turn acts as a headwind for GBP/USD. Meanwhile, weaker US consumer inflation data released on Thursday raised market bets on the imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut cycle in September. This could curb a significant rise in U.S. bond yields. In addition, the prevailing risk-on bias may deter traders from aggressively bullish bets on the safe-haven Dollar. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to receive support from data released on Thursday that the UK economy grew at a faster-than-expected 0.4% in May. This comes on the back of recent comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers that dashed hopes of a rate cut in August. On Wednesday, Bank of England MPC member Catherine Mann said that until there is a slowdown in service price growth, she would not advocate an interest rate cut. To add to this, Hugh Pill, the Bank of England's chief economist, noted that there is still some work to be done before the domestic permanent component of inflation disappears. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems to be leaning in favor of the bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair lies to the upside. Thus, any significant corrective decline could still be seen as a buying opportunity and is likely to remain limited. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to end a third consecutive week in the green. Traders now await the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey due later in the North American session, looking for short-term opportunities on the last day of the week. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 09, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair briefly tested a fresh four-week high on Monday, rising above 1.28400 before broad market flows pushed cable back down to the week's opening prices just above 1.28000. UK data remains sparse this week, with traders' expectations facing an overly cautious Federal Reserve (Fed). Fed speakers are pushing for further signs that US inflation is easing to reach the Fed's 2% annual inflation target. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make the first of two appearances this week when he presents the Fed's latest semi-annual monetary policy report to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. Fed Chairman Powell will then repeat his appearance when he testifies before the US House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Key US inflation data will be released later this week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming out on Thursday and the Wholesale Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. Traders hoping for further easing in inflation to push the Fed to cut rates sooner may be disappointed later in the week as the CPI and PPI inflation forecasts will either remain unchanged or rise slightly. UK data is also limited this week, with various speeches from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers scheduled for Wednesday and the results of the industrial and manufacturing activity survey on Thursday. UK industrial and manufacturing output is expected to rise in May after a slight contraction in the previous month. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.28000, on the rebound take Buy positions. If we consolidate below, take Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 24, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair starts the new week on a subdued note and remains within striking distance of the lowest level since mid-May reached on Friday. Spot prices are currently trading around 1.2635, with bears waiting for a sustained break and consolidation below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) before positioning for a continuation of the recent pullback from the multi-month peak. The British Pound (GBP) continues to be threatened by last week's pause by the Bank of England (BoE), which raised the stakes for an interest rate cut at its August monetary policy meeting. To add to this, the UK flash PMI indices released on Friday showed that private sector business activity in June grew at its slowest pace since November last year. This, along with some subsequent US Dollar (USD) buying, proved to be another factor weighing on the GBP/USD pair. Market participants are still considering the possibility of two interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 amid signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US. This could curb further dollar strength and limit the GBP/USD pair's decline. Traders may also refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of the UK general election on July 4 and in the absence of any market-important macroeconomic data released on Monday. Trading recommendation: Trade in the channel 1.2620-1.2680 on the rebound from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Shorts from 1.27000 back down (Pro Trend)My analysis for GU is bearish, and I am currently waiting for a pullback into a daily supply zone to look for shorting opportunities. Once the price taps into my point of interest (POI), I will look for a lower time frame (LTF) Wyckoff schematic to take the price down. With the dollar looking bullish, this analysis aligns well. Additionally, this is a pro-trend trade, as recent price action has shown lower lows and lower highs. If the price creates a new break of structure (BOS), we may see a new supply zone, which I will be monitoring closely. Confluences for GU sells are as follow: - Price broke structure to the downside on the higher time frame - Daily supply level left unmitigated thats now become our POI. - Lots of liquidity left to the downside as well as an imbalance - DXY is also correlating and supporting this idea as the dollar is looking bullish right now. - Lots of bearish pressure which means the correction is pending back up. P.S. If the price continues to drop and enters the 6-hour demand zone, I will look for buying opportunities back up to a nearby supply zone. It's important to stay adaptable based on what the market presents.
Short
by Hassan_fx
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 18, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound Sterling (GBP) is facing selling pressure in an attempt to extend its recovery above the round resistance level of 1.27000 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday's London session. The Pound-Dollar pair is declining as the US Dollar recovers from a small correction from a six-week high. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, is holding above 105.00 as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to speak in favor of cutting interest rates only once this year. Fed policymakers want to see a decline in inflation within a few months to gain confidence in lowering interest rates. They remain wary of reigniting price pressures from premature rate cuts, even though the disinflation process has resumed after stalling in the first quarter of this year. On Monday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker emphasized that rates will remain unchanged for now to keep downward pressure on inflation in various sectors such as housing and services, particularly auto insurance and repair. As for the interest rate outlook, Harker believes that benchmark rates will be cut once this year if his economic forecast comes true, Reuters reported. On the economic front, investors will focus on the monthly U.S. retail sales data for May, which will be released at 15:30 GMT+3. Retail sales data, a rough gauge of consumer spending and a gauge of the inflation outlook, is estimated to have increased 0.3% after being unchanged in April. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GU bearish reaction from 1.27600 or 1.27800My bias for GU this week is to look for sell opportunities. I expect the price to react from the current demand zone I identified last week, which should trigger a pullback towards the supply zone. Once the price reaches either the 10-hour or 12-hour supply zone, I will look for a Wyckoff distribution on the lower time frame and a clear shift in trend, indicating the price is ready to resume its downward trend. Confluences for GU Sells are as follows: - Lots of liquidity below that needs to get taken as well as imbalances that need to get filled. - DXY is also looking bullish which aligns with this idea as well. - Price has left a clean level of supply that has been unmitigated. - Price is currently in a downtrend so this is a pro-trend idea. - Higher time frame and candle stick anatomy also show bearish P.S. If the price continues to decline, I will wait for it to enter a deeper demand zone before buying back up, assuming the new week starts off bearish. However, my overall strategy for this week is to focus on sell opportunities.
Short
by Hassan_fx
GBP/USD Longs from 1.2700 or 1.26700My bias for GU this week is for it to continue its bullish trend, expecting a retracement to an area of demand. I've marked two potential zones of interest: the 3-hour demand and the 10-hour demand just below it. Once the price reaches these levels, I expect it to accumulate and present a clean buying opportunity on the lower time frames. If the price doesn't form a correction and continues upward, I'll look to take sells from a supply zone near 1.27900 or slightly higher. Confluences for GU Buys are as follows: - Demand zone has caused a break of structure to the upside. - Lots of liquidity to the upside as well as that wick that needs to get filled. - Price is already been bullish so this is a pro trend trade. P.S. As of now I will be waiting to see which direction Price would like to go in and prepare myself from there. Have a great trading week guys! THANKS FOR 1K FOLLOWERS
Long
by Hassan_fx
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 29, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is trading with small losses near 1.27600 during the Asian session on Wednesday. A moderate recovery in the US Dollar (USD) and US yields amid lower expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is weighing on the major pair. Later on Wednesday, the Fed's Beige Book will be released and Fed Chief John Williams will deliver a speech. Consumer confidence improved slightly in May, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The gauge rose to 102.0 in May from 97.0 in April, beating an estimate of 95.9. However, U.S. consumers remain concerned about inflation, and many households believe interest rates will rise over the next year. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve officials made more hawkish comments, which generally helped to strengthen the dollar. Fed chief Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she would support either waiting for the pace of quantitative tightening to begin to slow or a more moderate process of rate cuts than was announced earlier this month. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank should wait for significant progress on inflation before cutting interest rates, adding that he expects no more than two rate cuts in 2024. On the other hand, the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will start cutting interest rates in June is dragging the Pound Sterling (GBP) down. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its growth forecasts for the UK economy, but expected the Bank of England to cut rates two or three times. Amid a lack of important economic data releases from the UK, election speculation could boost GBP movement. Worries about political uncertainty may hurt the British pound and create a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Long to Shorts from 1.27000This week, my plan for GBPUSD (GU) is to buy up towards the 10-hour supply zone. I will wait for a retracement to occur, allowing for a Wyckoff accumulation to form within the demand zone before taking buys, possibly targeting the relative equal highs I have marked. If the price doesn’t retrace deeply and moves straight towards the supply zone, I will look for a Wyckoff distribution to initiate sells. This supply zone is more promising as it's a refined version of the 21-hour zone I marked last week. Confluences for GU Buys are as follows: - Price has left a clean 8hr demand zone that has swept liquidity. - Price has been bullish and this idea is a pro-trend idea. - There is lots of liquidity to target in the form of equal high and Asian high. - There is still an unmitigated supply that needs to get mitigated as well. P.S. If the price doesn't respect the demand zone, it could drop lower due to the imbalance below. In that case, I would look for a deeper demand zone to buy from or wait for the price to change character (CHOCH) to the downside.
Long
by Hassan_fx
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 24, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is losing momentum to recover near 1.26950 in the early Asian session on Friday. The major pair is declining after pulling back from a recent top near 1.27600 amid renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD). Later on Friday, data on US durable goods orders and Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released. On Thursday, the flash PMI from the S&P Global Composite rose to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April, beating the market consensus forecast of 51.1. The reading was the highest since April 2022. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in April from the previous reading of 50.0. The services PMI for the same period improved to 54.8 from 51.3 previously. Both indicators were better than market expectations. Rising input prices in the manufacturing sector indicate that inflation may pick up in the coming months, which could prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay an interest rate cut this year. This, in turn, would provide some support for the US Dollar and create a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. On the other hand, the UK CPI inflation report earlier this week caused investors to lower expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut next month. Investors believe that the probability of a first rate cut in August is almost 50%, and a quarter-point rate change will not be fully priced in until November. Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 1.27000, on the rebound take Sell positions.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 21, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair continues to rally near 1.27100 on Tuesday in the early Asian session. Investors are expecting more catalysts as various Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers are due later in the day. On Wednesday, close attention will be focused on UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and FOMC meeting minutes. On Tuesday, the US dollar trades stable amid the absence of important economic data from the US and the UK. Fed officials remain cautious about the timing of the end of the easing cycle and emphasize the need to hold rates longer to gain confidence that inflation is moving towards target. The minutes from Wednesday's FOMC meeting will take center stage as they may provide some clues as to the future path of interest rates. On Monday, Fed Vice Chairman Michael Barr said the central bank “needs to give our restrictive rate path some more time to continue its work.” Meanwhile, Fed policymaker Philip Jefferson, another permanent voting member of the Fed's rate-setting committee, said inflation continues to fall, though not as fast as he expected. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting in June. Financial markets believe there is a 76% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in September and two rate cuts before the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The US Fed's wait-and-see stance is likely to lead to a US Dollar (USD) rate hike and could limit the pair's near-term growth. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.27200, on the rebound take Sell positions.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Shorts from 1.27500 back downMy bias this week is to look for nearby sell opportunities as we approach a strong supply zone on the 21-hour chart. I will wait for a Wyckoff distribution to unfold, likely on Monday or Tuesday, to take sells back down to the next demand zone. Since the equal highs have been swept, I expect the price to slow down and provide a clear entry model for shorts. Despite the current bullish trend, I plan to take these sells down to the next demand zone, where I will look for long positions to continue the trend. Confluences for GU Sells are as follows: - 21hr supply zone has caused a break of structure to the downside and has an imbalance - The overall trend on the higher time frame is bearish and the dollar is also overall bullish. - Price has swept equal high liquidity enough to now break back down. - Bullish pressure is getting exhausted after the bullish rallies we saw last week. P.S. Since the price hasn't yet tapped into the supply zone, I'm also watching for an Asian high sweep, which will further confirm my sell bias. Additionally, we're approaching the psychological level of 1.27500, so it will be interesting to see how the price reacts. Have a great trading week!
Short
by Hassan_fx
Pound Stumbles on Jobs Data, Raising Specter of BoE Rate Cuts The British pound (GBP) took a tumble today after the release of disappointing UK employment data, fueling speculation of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in June. The data revealed a rise in unemployment for the second month running. March saw the jobless rate reach 4.3%, surpassing the previous month's reading of 4.2% and confirming fears of a slowing British labor market. This setback coincided with wage growth (excluding bonuses) stalling at 6% for the three months ending in March, defying expectations of a slight decline to 5.9%. Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, believes this uptick in unemployment is likely a precursor to a slowdown in wage growth. She suggests that the UK's recent economic struggles might deter businesses from hiring new employees, consequently leading to a softening of wage pressures in the coming months. This scenario strengthens the case for an imminent interest rate cut by the BoE. With inflation remaining a pressing concern, the central bank is facing mounting pressure to lower its base rate in order to stimulate economic activity. Selfin elaborates, stating that if upcoming data on wage growth aligns with her forecast of a modest increase, insufficient to prevent a downward trajectory in annual pay, it could trigger a more dovish stance within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ahead of their crucial June meeting. A dovish stance signifies a central bank leaning towards lowering interest rates. Market Response and Unfolding Narrative The pound's depreciation reflects a shift in investor sentiment. The initial optimism surrounding the BoE's hawkish stance on interest rates, intended to combat inflation, seems to be waning. The prospect of a potential rate cut has dampened investor confidence in the pound, leading to its current decline. Uncertainties and the Road Ahead The BoE now finds itself in a precarious position. While inflation remains a priority, the rising unemployment figures present a new challenge. The central bank will need to carefully navigate this complex situation. Key factors to watch in the coming weeks include: • Upcoming Wage Growth Data: If wages confirm Selfin's prediction of a subdued rise, it could significantly boost the case for a rate cut. • The BoE's Rhetoric: The language used by the BoE in its upcoming communications will be closely scrutinized for any hints regarding the likelihood of a June rate cut. • Global Economic Conditions: Broader global economic developments, particularly in the US and Europe, could also influence the BoE's decision. Conclusion The pound's recent slump serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balancing act the BoE faces. The bank's June meeting will be pivotal, with its decision on interest rates potentially shaping the course of the UK economy and the future trajectory of the pound.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Trading Signal For GBPUSD Trading Setup: A Trading Signal is seen in the GBPUSD Currency Pair. Traders can open their Sell Trades NOW ⬇️Sell Now or Sell on 1.2567 ⭕️SL@ 1.2586 🔵TP1@ 1.2496 🔵TP2@ 1.2456 🔵TP3@ 1.2336 What are these signals based on? Classical Technical Analysis Price Action Candlesticks Fibonacci RSI, Moving Average , Ichimoku , Bollinger Bands Risk Warning Trading Forex, CFDs, Crypto, Futures, and Stocks involve a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. If you liked our ideas, please support us with your likes 👍 and comments .
Short
by pullbacksignal
GBP/USD BUY TO SELL (up towards 1.26500)This week's analysis for GBPUSD presents promising opportunities based on anticipated price movements. Near current price levels, there's a nearby 4-hour demand zone that could potentially trigger a bullish reaction, although I'm cautious about its strength. However, my primary focus is on the daily supply zone. If price fails to reach the daily supply, it might delve deeper to interact with a stronger demand area, possibly sparking another bullish rally. In such a scenario, I'll align my trades with the prevailing uptrend, considering the recent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Once price reaches the daily supply zone, I'll be prepared to enter significant sell positions. Confluences for buys are as follows: - Price has recently been in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. - Daily supply zone that needs to get mitigated eventually. - Good demand zones left that price might pick up another bullish rally from. - Liquidity to the upside as well as substantial imbalances that need mitigation. - price has also recently broke structure to the upside once again to confirm the trend. P.S. If price reaches the supply zone without eliciting a reaction from any of my demand points of interest (POIs), I'll patiently wait for a wyckoff distribution to develop on lower time frames before initiating my short positions. Have a great trading week guys!
Long
by Hassan_fx
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 23, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair remains on the defensive near 1.23500, its lowest since mid-November, in Tuesday's early Asian session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating above 106.10 as traders await the preliminary S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from the US and UK for April. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers agreed that US inflation is slowly declining but remains high. Therefore, the US central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic noted that interest rates will have to be held at a "restrictive level" and may not be lowered until "late 2024." At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said a longer timeline for rate cuts as progress on inflation has "stalled." Growing speculation that the UK central bank will cut interest rates sooner than the US Fed is putting pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP). Last week, Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said that progress in UK inflation and a worsening economic outlook would allow the Bank to start its rate cut cycle earlier than previously expected. Investors estimated the probability of a June rate cut at 60%, according to Reuters. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD to 2 dollars per poundThis is also gonna be one of the interesting charts to watch in the coming months or yrs, as the pound is gaining strength against the dollar. So, Based on the chart, you can see that we completed a correction cycle in 01 Sept 22 which had started 01 Oct 07, from there a bullish cycle is expected to start which will lead us to the ATHs. Even Fundamentally, it's not looking good the the America, Biden and his administration are basically messing things up, they are losing confidence, and also not just that, even the war against the dollar might, or in fact is gonna be one of the reasons why we gonna see the expected cycle in play. In terms of my wave count, please have a look on the chart as everything is marked for you and me to see and understand why and how we got to this sentiment. NFA as always. Remember me when this happens as planned. and also don't forget to tell your mates, family about me.
Long
by Theofylrx
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