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Pound Sterling Massively Overvalued if No Deal Brexit We are fast approaching a conclusion to the Brexit story. While no deal Brexit chances greatly increased over the past week with a short extension of April 12th, UK Parliament is still weighing over whether or not to pass May's deal, a rejection of which would even further heighten the chances of a no deal Brexit. If the House of Commons can pass May's deal, then a major crisis is averted and pound sterling may trade at higher levels or may stay muted as a deal between the two is largely priced in. If however a deal cannot be concluded and pound sterling dollar is overpriced, then we can expect to see dramatic swings lower in this pair as a no deal Brexit would certainly bring chaos to the foreign exchange and equity markets. The politics of this situation are a bit tricky. Both sides want a deal which incentivizes some amicable conclusion to this. However, such a deal is not necessarily in the offing. Shorter duration trades could be made to the upside, but the politics remain key in price action since economic indicators and technicals are being dominated by the headlines. Much more analysis on how the politics could play out here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
The UK Won’t Sign the Divorce Papers, Pound Will SufferAn April 12th deadline is now looming above the heads of Europeans and the British as the UK find themselves situated as the estranged husband who refuses to sign the divorce papers. Right now there are six main scenarios: 1)Revoking Article 50 and cancelling Brexit 2)Another referendum 3)May’s deal plus a customs union 4)May’s deal plus both a customs union and single market access 5)A Canadian-style free trade agreement 6)Leaving the EU without a deal Beyond these six main scenarios, there are subplots being played out primarily including the 1 million person strong march over the weekend and most scandalously the claims that some members of May’s government are making a play against May to become Prime Minister. Meanwhile with the pound against the dollar, the currency pair endured the dreaded ‘death cross’ last week where the 50 day moving average crossed over the 200 day moving average indicating a technical signal for a downtrend. Overall, daily technicals like moving averages suggest we are trending up. This is the case. However, this currency pair HAS NOT priced in the chance of a no deal Brexit. This will be to the detriment of traders just looking at technicals despite how important they may be. For more analysis please check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
May Just Announced Short Extension to the EUThree more months is what's being asked for by May as the UK attempts to muddle its way through this going on three years long political fiasco. I'm sure you're more interested in the technicals, so here's my read: stay away. I won't trade this until there's some sort of a clearer picture of the direction of where Brexit is heading. Right now though, I'm incredibly bearish based on the fact that we are closer to accidentally crashing out the EU with no deal at all than what we are with the UK and the EU coming to an agreement within three months. Imagine if they did come to an agreement that was 1) actually economically sound for both the UK and the EU within three months and that 2) Parliament agreed to vote on. Imagine if that happened in three months after three years of negotiations. It would be the most incredible act of diplomacy, negotiating, and skillful politicking in the history of the UK by far. My friends, I implore all of you to take a look at Bloomberg's story on the Big Brexit Short. I think it may change the way you view trading this pair and the way price action is moving which is by the way, let's be honest, mostly driven by hedge funds. Here's the link to the Youtube video: www.youtube.com its worth the watch.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
GBP/USD daily overviewDuring Friday’s trading session, the British Pound depreciated to the 1.2950 level. On Monday morning, the European Single Currency was located at the 1.2999 mark. In regards to the near term future, most likely, the currency exchange rate will be trading sideways to stay at the 1.3000 level during the day. On the other hand, the US Dollar might appreciate against the British pound during today’s US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data release at 12:30 GMT to fall to the monthly S2 at the 1.2905 level.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBPUSD SHORTAs I mentioned in last weeks post, we are currently testing that 1.29-1.30 support. This area is going to be extremely crucial in determining what comes next but I am expecting a retest of the 1.305 ish price mark before a continuation of the downtrend. The MACD bearish Divergence is now currently confirmed signaling the just now start of that downward trend. The break of the trend line indicated will see us looking to retest the 1.28 zone which may or may not hold and failure to do so will find us headed back down to the 1.26-1.24 range. With HEAVY GBP and BREXIT news next week, I expect a crazy amount of volatility so we want to be very careful trading GBP pairs. Remember, patience is KEY! GL DISCLAIMER!!!! My Ideas are mine and mine alone and are only to provide my perspective of the current market situation. Do not take my posts as trading decisions for entries or exit. Trading the FOREX market is very risky and indulge in it at your own risks!
Short
by TazTrades
Bullish Cable againThe British pound is ending the month of February with a bullish move, up 0.50% after rumors of brexit delay in case a deal cannot be agreed on before end of March; offering some market relief and helping GBP/USD recovering almost all its February decline. Looking at the chart, the pair is trading above its main MAs which indicates positive momentum. Also broke a downward trend line capping upward movement since May. Plus, trade optimism between China and the US offered some more market relief. Technically: the trend is neutral to bullish - next resistance being 1.316 (Feb high, 240 Day SMA) , followed by 1.322 (Jan high, 100 Week SMA). Trade Safe.
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
The Pound set to continue its declineThe dollar continues its advance. Investors see a global slowdown but figure the US economy to be the biggest and strongest so they put their bets on it coming out ahead. Trump has signed a shutdown avoidance agreement but is now pushing for a national emergency in order to siphon funds from the budget agreed on by congress. Very sticky situation that could lead to a fall in the dollar if the funds are misappropriated. The pound is continuing its decline. We see more turmoil than solutions being propagated in the UK. Prime Minister Theresa May faced hardships yet again from her Parliament when they refused to endorse her return to the EU negotiating table. Who will be in charge of the negotiations remains to be seen but we remain bearish on the whole situation because the deadline is quickly approaching. We look towards the employment data set for the UK on Tuesday to figure out if inflation will stay within the bounds of the mandate the Bank of England. This data is important, it shows us if the BoE might change its monetary policy because of sharp declines in employment or earnings. After all this data is compiled, we will see an inflation report on Thursday. Technical analysis shows us that the pound will likely continue its descent. Two doji candles indicate that despite a good data set from the UK the pound is not ready to climb back to previous highs. The price crossed over the 21 EMA and remains under the 200 EMA. A support level at 1.26734 is a good level to put target take-profits.
Short
by YaroslavBirchenko
GBP/USD Possible Head and shoulders Cable is trading in a bearish trend below its 200D SMA and is being driven by brexit uncertainty that is rising day over day, affecting market sentiment and businesses all over the UK. Currently, hopes of reaching a brexit deal are shrinking which will continue putting downside pressure on this pair. Also, a potential head and shoulders can be spotted on the 4 hour chart which if confirmed breaking below the neckline can send this pair to lower levels including 2018 lows near 1.25. I am currently bearish on the cable unless a positive progress is made on brexit negotiations.
Short
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
0206-GBPUSD Analysis GBPUSD Pound break downward wedge trend yesterday, it shows it need a correction to 1.2900 or more to 1.2880. In the weakness trend, GBPUSD may not have chance to bounce up, so u may not got nice price to short. The best strategy is follow the time, not the price, according to market timing law, the chart time around at 08:00~08:30 will be the reversal time zone for short position today. In best scenario for downward trend, GBPUSD won't rise above 1.2962. If GBPUSD rise above 1.2962, then the downward energy will be mitigate, so the strategy target will need to elevate.
Short
by KENJICHEN
GBP/USD daily overviewDuring Friday’s trading session, the currency exchange rate was retraced by the 55-hour simple moving average to the 1.3060 level. On Monday morning, the British Pound kept depreciating against the US Dollar to the 1.3053 mark. Most likely, the currency exchange rate will be trading downwards to the bottom boundary of the medium pattern line at the 1.3030 mark. Besides, the simple moving averages at the 1.3100 mark retrace the rate to give an additional push for the British Pound to depreciate against the US Dollar to the 1.3020 level.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBPUSD - STUCK BETWEEN RANGES! (Short Term)NOTE: This is just analysis/advice, do not FOLLOW this trade blindly - I take no responsibility for it... Looking at GBPUSD from a 1H chart, there is very little that can be said about where price is heading. I feel like the price is currently bouncing between regions on the 1H, with price ranging from around 1.30900 and 1.31500. I think there will be an opportunity for a trade if price breaks out between this region and a strong bullish or bearish candle is formed, which may impact this currency pair. For those looking to place a trade, there could be 3 scenarios that I think could happen. - Scenario 1: Price rallies upwards again towards the 1.31500 region as hit previously a few times. From here, there may be a retest and a clear breakout would state price could retrace higher, to 1.32000 as hit around the 29th January 2019. If there is a rejection from this key level around 1.31500, price may rebound back to 1.31500. (LONG) - Scenario 2: Price rallies upwards again towards the 1.31500 region as hit previously a few times. From here, there may be a retest and a rejection from this key level around 1.31500, meaning price may rebound back to 1.31500. (LONG) - Scenario 3: Price breaks the short term support level on the 1H around 1.31000 - 1.30900. A clear bearish candlestick may cause a retracement back down towards 1.30700. (SHORT) Considering the RSI number, it is around 50 (49.7 currently) so GBPUSD is neither oversold or overbought on the 1H, however on the 1D, it is around 63, and RSI has rebounded from the overbought region suggesting this pair may be starting to weaken in the next few days as the GBP has rallied somewhat over this week (possible long term short position over the next week). Looking at price right now, it does not look to move whatsoever and the PIPS in this trade are considerably low. I think Scenario 1/2 is most likely to happen as 1.3100 is acting as a strong support level for this pair right now. Blue boxes - support and resistance regions Trading right now may not be advised as there seems to be no clear picture of where price is going. If you managed to read it this far down, thanks for reading this! If you could, please do offer your ideas & perspectives on this pair. Buy or Sell and why? Additionally, drop me your charts for it, that'd be great so I can see where you are coming from. I'm a new guy to the FX & Crypto market, trying to learn FX & Crypto, and I'd appreciate any help people may offer! Please drop a follow! I need reputation points!!
by ShaunLeo35
GBPUSD - Potential Sell Off After Rally!NOTE: This is just analysis/advice, do not FOLLOW this trade blindly - I take no responsibility for it... Looking at GBPUSD on the 1H chart, it can be seen that price has currently rebounded from a recent high made on the 1H on Friday 25th January from around 1.32175. From here there has been a bearish candle, showing room for some downside, after the bullish rally for the GBP following some news on Brexit, which was positive for the GBP. In terms of a technical structure for GBPUSD, it is currently in a upwards parallel channel, which it could potentially break out of. If it does, this could leave it to melt down towards the regions highlighted on the 1H chart. Moreover, looking at the RSI on the 1H, 4H and 1D, it shows that GBPUSD is currently overbought, moreover showing room for some downside. Potential Scenarios that could occur include: - Scenario 1: Break out of the upwards parallel channel. Price should then look to first head towards 1.30900. It could then rebound off this point and start another bull run. - Scenario 2: Break out of the upwards parallel channel. Price should then look to first head towards 1.30900. It then tests this level and breaks through further, melting down towards 1.30410 (around this region in price). From here there could be a rebound to the upside. - Scenario 3: Price may still look to remain in the upwards parallel structure and not go down whatsoever. This could be unlikely due to the sharp strengthening in the GBP recently over the last week, which should mean there should be a slight pullback. If you managed to read it this far down, thanks for reading this! If you could, please do offer your ideas & perspectives on this pair. Buy or Sell and why? Additionally, drop me your charts for it, that'd be great so I can see where you are coming from. I'm a new guy to the FX & Crypto market, trying to learn FX & Crypto, and I'd appreciate any help people may offer! Please drop a follow! I need reputation points!!
Short
by ShaunLeo35
GBPUSD Intraday ForecastAs we forecast uptrend for this day, so Forecast City suggests buy (limit) above S1=1.2905. But the short term forecast is range bound, so we expect to reach the following targets: TP3: R1=1.3. TP4: R2=1.304. Set the stoploss of these orders at breakout of S2=1.2875. Stop and reverse: If trend gets reversed, sell (stop) orders will be opened at breakout of S2=1.2875. In this situation, there is an expectation to reach the target S3=1.2775. Set the stoploss of reverse orders at breakout of S1=1.2905. If you would like to trade in the next 24 hours , the intraday forecasts of ForecastCity will show you the most accurate and the most likely actions and swings of the market. Our intraday forecasts are available before those of all the other sites. Our intraday forecasts are available very early in the day. It is one of ForecastCity’s glorious and positive qualities. This quality has made us the first forecaster that forecast tomorrow for you!
Long
by ForecastCity
GBPUSD Intraday ForecastAs we forecast uptrend for this day, so Forecast City suggests buy (limit) above S1=1.2905. But the short term forecast is range bound, so we expect to reach the following targets: TP3: R1=1.3. TP4: R2=1.304. Set the stoploss of these orders at breakout of S2=1.2875. Stop and reverse: If trend gets reversed, sell (stop) orders will be opened at breakout of S2=1.2875. In this situation, there is an expectation to reach the target S3=1.2775. Set the stoploss of reverse orders at breakout of S1=1.2905. If you would like to trade in the next 24 hours , the intraday forecasts of ForecastCity will show you the most accurate and the most likely actions and swings of the market. Our intraday forecasts are available before those of all the other sites. Our intraday forecasts are available very early in the day. It is one of ForecastCity’s glorious and positive qualities. This quality has made us the first forecaster that forecast tomorrow for you!
Long
by ForecastCity
GBPUSD Intraday ForecastAs we forecast uptrend for this day, so Forecast City suggests buy (limit) above S1=1.274. But the short term forecast is range bound, so we expect to reach the following targets: TP3: R1=1.2815. TP4: R2=1.285. Set the stoploss of these orders at breakout of S2=1.2725. Stop and reverse: If trend gets reversed, sell (stop) orders will be opened at breakout of S2=1.2725. In this situation, there is an expectation to reach the target S3=1.264. Set the stoploss of reverse orders at breakout of S1=1.274. If you would like to trade in the next 24 hours , the intraday forecasts of ForecastCity will show you the most accurate and the most likely actions and swings of the market. Our intraday forecasts are available before those of all the other sites. Our intraday forecasts are available very early in the day. It is one of ForecastCity’s glorious and positive qualities. This quality has made us the first forecaster that forecast tomorrow for you!
Long
by ForecastCity