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GBP/USD Continues Downtrend, Aligns with Supply ForecastGBP/USD has extended its decline after reaching our predicted supply area, as outlined in our previous analysis. (Link below.) Prolonged Downtrend Expected The current trend suggests that the price may continue to fall over the next few months, potentially reaching the demand area around 1.24 before experiencing a new bullish impulse. This aligns with our forecast, anticipating a bearish phase until October. Anticipation of Monetary Policy Announcements Traders are awaiting key monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. These events are expected to inject fresh volatility into the market, possibly pushing GBP/USD even lower. Market Sentiment and Indices Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 Index has dipped by 0.3%, while US stock index futures are trading marginally higher, reflecting a cautious market stance. Strategy and Outlook Given these conditions, we maintain our bearish outlook and continue to hold our short position, anticipating further downward movement in GBP/USD. Previous Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Hedge Funds' Sterling Bet: A Risky Gamble?A surge in bullish bets on the British pound sterling by hedge funds and other asset managers has ignited concerns about a potential market upheaval. Aggressive positioning on the currency has reached a 10-year high, leaving it vulnerable to a sharp correction should the Bank of England (BoE) decide to cut interest rates this week. The data, sourced from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, reveals a dramatic increase in net-long positions on sterling over the past month. This bullish sentiment has been fueled by a combination of factors, including relatively high interest rates, signs of economic improvement, and the perceived stability of the UK government. As a result, the pound has gained nearly 1% against the US dollar since the start of the year and reached a one-year high earlier this month. However, the market's optimism may be misplaced. The BoE's monetary policy decision on Thursday remains a significant uncertainty, with market pricing indicating an equal chance of a rate hike or a cut. If the central bank opts to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, it could have a severe impact on the pound. The heightened bullish sentiment among investors has created a scenario where even a hint of dovishness from the BoE could trigger a rapid unwinding of positions and a sharp decline in sterling. The potential for a significant market correction has prompted concerns among analysts and investors. Some argue that the current level of bullishness is excessive and that the market is underpricing the risk of a rate cut. They caution that a sudden shift in sentiment could lead to significant losses for those holding long positions on the pound. As the market awaits the BoE's decision, volatility is expected to remain high. The outcome of the meeting will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences for the pound and the broader global financial markets. If the central bank surprises the market with a rate cut, it could be a wake-up call for investors who have become overly complacent about the currency's prospects. Ultimately, the recent surge in bullish sterling bets highlights the inherent risks of relying on market consensus. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the current level of optimism surrounding the pound raises questions about the sustainability of the currency's strength. As the old adage goes, "buy low, sell high," but in this case, investors may be finding themselves on the wrong side of the trade.
by bryandowningqln
GBP/USD Weakens Amid Caution Ahead of Fed Powell’s SpeechThe GBP/USD pair has retraced to 1.2618 against the US Dollar (USD) during Tuesday’s London session. The pair's weakness is attributed to risk aversion among market participants, driven by uncertainty ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech and the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, scheduled for release on Friday. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair is moving towards a clear support/Demand area around 1.2540, which appears to be its next target. Powell is expected to provide crucial insights into when the central bank might begin lowering its key borrowing rates. This week, investors will closely monitor labor demand and wage growth data to determine if the Fed will consider reducing interest rates starting from the September meeting, as suggested by the 30-day Federal Fund futures pricing data from the CME FedWatch tool. Given the current market conditions, we are anticipating a bearish continuation towards the Demand area around 1.2540. Once this level is reached, we will look for a potential long position from that area. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Pound Stumbles on Jobs Data, Raising Specter of BoE Rate Cuts The British pound (GBP) took a tumble today after the release of disappointing UK employment data, fueling speculation of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in June. The data revealed a rise in unemployment for the second month running. March saw the jobless rate reach 4.3%, surpassing the previous month's reading of 4.2% and confirming fears of a slowing British labor market. This setback coincided with wage growth (excluding bonuses) stalling at 6% for the three months ending in March, defying expectations of a slight decline to 5.9%. Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, believes this uptick in unemployment is likely a precursor to a slowdown in wage growth. She suggests that the UK's recent economic struggles might deter businesses from hiring new employees, consequently leading to a softening of wage pressures in the coming months. This scenario strengthens the case for an imminent interest rate cut by the BoE. With inflation remaining a pressing concern, the central bank is facing mounting pressure to lower its base rate in order to stimulate economic activity. Selfin elaborates, stating that if upcoming data on wage growth aligns with her forecast of a modest increase, insufficient to prevent a downward trajectory in annual pay, it could trigger a more dovish stance within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ahead of their crucial June meeting. A dovish stance signifies a central bank leaning towards lowering interest rates. Market Response and Unfolding Narrative The pound's depreciation reflects a shift in investor sentiment. The initial optimism surrounding the BoE's hawkish stance on interest rates, intended to combat inflation, seems to be waning. The prospect of a potential rate cut has dampened investor confidence in the pound, leading to its current decline. Uncertainties and the Road Ahead The BoE now finds itself in a precarious position. While inflation remains a priority, the rising unemployment figures present a new challenge. The central bank will need to carefully navigate this complex situation. Key factors to watch in the coming weeks include: • Upcoming Wage Growth Data: If wages confirm Selfin's prediction of a subdued rise, it could significantly boost the case for a rate cut. • The BoE's Rhetoric: The language used by the BoE in its upcoming communications will be closely scrutinized for any hints regarding the likelihood of a June rate cut. • Global Economic Conditions: Broader global economic developments, particularly in the US and Europe, could also influence the BoE's decision. Conclusion The pound's recent slump serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balancing act the BoE faces. The bank's June meeting will be pivotal, with its decision on interest rates potentially shaping the course of the UK economy and the future trajectory of the pound.
Long
by bryandowningqln
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upAmidst the uncertainty characterized by global events, last week witnessed the GBP/USD pair caught in the crosscurrents of rising geopolitical tensions and pivotal central bank pronouncements. Bank of England's Deputy Governor, Dave Ramsden, took centre stage with remarks on inflation risks, yet failed to provide the anticipated support for Sterling as it plunged to new depths. The UK's economic landscape presented a mixed picture, with March's retail sales stagnating while annual growth maintained a modest trajectory. Against this backdrop, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve emerged as key players, wielding their influence to shape market sentiment. The journey across the pond unveiled a contrasting narrative, with robust US Retail Sales figures sparking a reassessment of interest rate projections and propelling the US 10-year note yield to unprecedented heights. While Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cautioned against persistent inflation, New York Fed President John Williams struck a more measured chord, emphasizing the Fed's data-driven approach and its nuanced stance on monetary policy. In this video, we dissect the implications of these developments and chart our course for the new week in GBP/USD trading. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Will the pound maintain its momentum below the critical $1.24200 zone? In this video, we've examined both the daily and 4-hour timeframes, dissecting bullish and bearish sentiments to unearth the most promising trades for the week ahead. Our analysis dives deep into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, providing invaluable insights into the prevailing market structure. Our focus remains fixed on the pivotal level at $1.24200, where the direction of price action could herald the onset of significant market shifts. How the market responds here will chart the course for GBP/USD in the days to come. Stay engaged and join the discourse in the comment section to stay abreast of the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and brace yourselves for further illuminating insights into GBP/USD in our upcoming content. Get ready for an exhilarating journey ahead! Happy trading! Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
by darcsherry
GBP/USD: Recovery Momentum Amidst Technical and Fund. FactorsThe GBP/USD pair has shown signs of gaining traction during the early European session on Wednesday, surpassing the 1.2460 mark after experiencing a rebound around the 50% Fibonacci level. Despite previous forecasts suggesting a potential deeper reversal around the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels, recent price action, in line with EUR/USD movements, indicates a potential bullish impulse. However, it's essential to note that our analysis serves as an idea rather than a call for immediate entry into trades. Looking at the near-term technical outlook, there's a discernible buildup of recovery momentum. Nonetheless, the pair could encounter significant resistance around the 1.2625 level, where the Local Point of Control (POC) of volume from the previous range consolidation area resides. Our perspective revolves around the possibility of a retracement near the POC line followed by a subsequent push downward. Turning to economic news, the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently released data indicating that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), dipped to 3.2% in March from the previous month's 3.4%, surpassing market expectations of 3.1%. Moreover, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.2% during the same period, slightly above analysts' estimates of 4.1%. These readings prompted a strengthening of the Pound Sterling against its counterparts. Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to grapple with tepid demand, contributing to the upward momentum of GBP/USD as market sentiment improves midweek. This dynamic underscores the interplay between technical and fundamental factors shaping currency movements. In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair exhibits signs of recovery momentum amidst a backdrop of technical indicators and fundamental data. While recent price action suggests a potential bullish impulse, resistance levels loom overhead, warranting caution for traders. The release of economic data, particularly inflation figures, has influenced market sentiment, driving movements in the Pound Sterling. Against the backdrop of a subdued US Dollar, GBP/USD dynamics remain dynamic, requiring traders to remain vigilant and adaptable to evolving market conditions.
by FOREXN1
2
GBP/USD Short Setup - 13/04/2024Market Analysis: GBPUSD has been trading in a downward trend over the past few weeks. Recent economic data releases have shown signs of weakness in the UK economy, including lower-than-expected GDP growth and concerns over inflationary pressures. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations and political developments continues to weigh on the pound's strength against the US dollar. Risk Management: Consider position sizing to ensure that the potential loss on the trade does not exceed your risk tolerance. Monitor economic events and news developments that could impact the GBPUSD pair, and be prepared to adjust the trade accordingly. A short position on GBPUSD appears to offer a favourable risk/reward opportunity for next week. However, remain vigilant and adapt to any changes in market conditions or unexpected news events. Please like and comment if you agree with this analysis.
Short
by Ryan-L
3
GBP/USD Reversal Signals: Analyzing Potential Bearish MomentumAmidst early week volatility, GBP/USD initially tested 1.2650 before reversing course and closing positively on Monday. However, recent movement has brought the pair into a supply area, hinting at a possible reversal and continuation of its bearish trajectory. In the upcoming economic calendar, focus shifts to the release of Durable Goods Orders for February in the US. Forecasts predict a 1.3% rise following January's 6.2% contraction. Should the data disappoint, it may weaken the USD in the immediate aftermath. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected increase could bolster the currency. Nonetheless, the impact of this data is likely to be short-lived. Traders are closely monitoring these developments, with anticipation building for a potential bearish setup post the Durable Goods news.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/NZD: Analyzing Momentum Shifts Amid Central Bank DynamicsThe GBP/NZD pair has lost momentum for a possible rebound, regardless of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's tempered remarks regarding the pace of interest rate hikes, despite presiding over a divided decision. This shift in sentiment has prompted a breakdown in price support around the 2.0500 area, followed by a subsequent retest and further bearish momentum. The price remains firmly below the 50-day moving average, signaling a strong inclination towards further downside movement. While both the Bank of England (BOE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have embarked on a tightening path, the impact on the sterling has been somewhat subdued. Expectations from both central banks now appear to be more evenly balanced. In light of these developments, we anticipate a continuation of bearish sentiment in the GBP/NZD pair, focusing on utilizing price action signals to guide our trading strategy.
Short
by FOREXN1
1