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Pound Stumbles on Jobs Data, Raising Specter of BoE Rate Cuts The British pound (GBP) took a tumble today after the release of disappointing UK employment data, fueling speculation of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in June. The data revealed a rise in unemployment for the second month running. March saw the jobless rate reach 4.3%, surpassing the previous month's reading of 4.2% and confirming fears of a slowing British labor market. This setback coincided with wage growth (excluding bonuses) stalling at 6% for the three months ending in March, defying expectations of a slight decline to 5.9%. Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, believes this uptick in unemployment is likely a precursor to a slowdown in wage growth. She suggests that the UK's recent economic struggles might deter businesses from hiring new employees, consequently leading to a softening of wage pressures in the coming months. This scenario strengthens the case for an imminent interest rate cut by the BoE. With inflation remaining a pressing concern, the central bank is facing mounting pressure to lower its base rate in order to stimulate economic activity. Selfin elaborates, stating that if upcoming data on wage growth aligns with her forecast of a modest increase, insufficient to prevent a downward trajectory in annual pay, it could trigger a more dovish stance within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ahead of their crucial June meeting. A dovish stance signifies a central bank leaning towards lowering interest rates. Market Response and Unfolding Narrative The pound's depreciation reflects a shift in investor sentiment. The initial optimism surrounding the BoE's hawkish stance on interest rates, intended to combat inflation, seems to be waning. The prospect of a potential rate cut has dampened investor confidence in the pound, leading to its current decline. Uncertainties and the Road Ahead The BoE now finds itself in a precarious position. While inflation remains a priority, the rising unemployment figures present a new challenge. The central bank will need to carefully navigate this complex situation. Key factors to watch in the coming weeks include: • Upcoming Wage Growth Data: If wages confirm Selfin's prediction of a subdued rise, it could significantly boost the case for a rate cut. • The BoE's Rhetoric: The language used by the BoE in its upcoming communications will be closely scrutinized for any hints regarding the likelihood of a June rate cut. • Global Economic Conditions: Broader global economic developments, particularly in the US and Europe, could also influence the BoE's decision. Conclusion The pound's recent slump serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balancing act the BoE faces. The bank's June meeting will be pivotal, with its decision on interest rates potentially shaping the course of the UK economy and the future trajectory of the pound.
Long
by bryandowningqln
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upAmidst the uncertainty characterized by global events, last week witnessed the GBP/USD pair caught in the crosscurrents of rising geopolitical tensions and pivotal central bank pronouncements. Bank of England's Deputy Governor, Dave Ramsden, took centre stage with remarks on inflation risks, yet failed to provide the anticipated support for Sterling as it plunged to new depths. The UK's economic landscape presented a mixed picture, with March's retail sales stagnating while annual growth maintained a modest trajectory. Against this backdrop, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve emerged as key players, wielding their influence to shape market sentiment. The journey across the pond unveiled a contrasting narrative, with robust US Retail Sales figures sparking a reassessment of interest rate projections and propelling the US 10-year note yield to unprecedented heights. While Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cautioned against persistent inflation, New York Fed President John Williams struck a more measured chord, emphasizing the Fed's data-driven approach and its nuanced stance on monetary policy. In this video, we dissect the implications of these developments and chart our course for the new week in GBP/USD trading. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Will the pound maintain its momentum below the critical $1.24200 zone? In this video, we've examined both the daily and 4-hour timeframes, dissecting bullish and bearish sentiments to unearth the most promising trades for the week ahead. Our analysis dives deep into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, providing invaluable insights into the prevailing market structure. Our focus remains fixed on the pivotal level at $1.24200, where the direction of price action could herald the onset of significant market shifts. How the market responds here will chart the course for GBP/USD in the days to come. Stay engaged and join the discourse in the comment section to stay abreast of the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and brace yourselves for further illuminating insights into GBP/USD in our upcoming content. Get ready for an exhilarating journey ahead! Happy trading! Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
by darcsherry
GBP/USD: Recovery Momentum Amidst Technical and Fund. FactorsThe GBP/USD pair has shown signs of gaining traction during the early European session on Wednesday, surpassing the 1.2460 mark after experiencing a rebound around the 50% Fibonacci level. Despite previous forecasts suggesting a potential deeper reversal around the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels, recent price action, in line with EUR/USD movements, indicates a potential bullish impulse. However, it's essential to note that our analysis serves as an idea rather than a call for immediate entry into trades. Looking at the near-term technical outlook, there's a discernible buildup of recovery momentum. Nonetheless, the pair could encounter significant resistance around the 1.2625 level, where the Local Point of Control (POC) of volume from the previous range consolidation area resides. Our perspective revolves around the possibility of a retracement near the POC line followed by a subsequent push downward. Turning to economic news, the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently released data indicating that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), dipped to 3.2% in March from the previous month's 3.4%, surpassing market expectations of 3.1%. Moreover, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 4.2% during the same period, slightly above analysts' estimates of 4.1%. These readings prompted a strengthening of the Pound Sterling against its counterparts. Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to grapple with tepid demand, contributing to the upward momentum of GBP/USD as market sentiment improves midweek. This dynamic underscores the interplay between technical and fundamental factors shaping currency movements. In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair exhibits signs of recovery momentum amidst a backdrop of technical indicators and fundamental data. While recent price action suggests a potential bullish impulse, resistance levels loom overhead, warranting caution for traders. The release of economic data, particularly inflation figures, has influenced market sentiment, driving movements in the Pound Sterling. Against the backdrop of a subdued US Dollar, GBP/USD dynamics remain dynamic, requiring traders to remain vigilant and adaptable to evolving market conditions.
by FOREXN1
2
GBP/USD Short Setup - 13/04/2024Market Analysis: GBPUSD has been trading in a downward trend over the past few weeks. Recent economic data releases have shown signs of weakness in the UK economy, including lower-than-expected GDP growth and concerns over inflationary pressures. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations and political developments continues to weigh on the pound's strength against the US dollar. Risk Management: Consider position sizing to ensure that the potential loss on the trade does not exceed your risk tolerance. Monitor economic events and news developments that could impact the GBPUSD pair, and be prepared to adjust the trade accordingly. A short position on GBPUSD appears to offer a favourable risk/reward opportunity for next week. However, remain vigilant and adapt to any changes in market conditions or unexpected news events. Please like and comment if you agree with this analysis.
Short
by Ryan-L
3
GBP/USD Reversal Signals: Analyzing Potential Bearish MomentumAmidst early week volatility, GBP/USD initially tested 1.2650 before reversing course and closing positively on Monday. However, recent movement has brought the pair into a supply area, hinting at a possible reversal and continuation of its bearish trajectory. In the upcoming economic calendar, focus shifts to the release of Durable Goods Orders for February in the US. Forecasts predict a 1.3% rise following January's 6.2% contraction. Should the data disappoint, it may weaken the USD in the immediate aftermath. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected increase could bolster the currency. Nonetheless, the impact of this data is likely to be short-lived. Traders are closely monitoring these developments, with anticipation building for a potential bearish setup post the Durable Goods news.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/NZD: Analyzing Momentum Shifts Amid Central Bank DynamicsThe GBP/NZD pair has lost momentum for a possible rebound, regardless of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's tempered remarks regarding the pace of interest rate hikes, despite presiding over a divided decision. This shift in sentiment has prompted a breakdown in price support around the 2.0500 area, followed by a subsequent retest and further bearish momentum. The price remains firmly below the 50-day moving average, signaling a strong inclination towards further downside movement. While both the Bank of England (BOE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have embarked on a tightening path, the impact on the sterling has been somewhat subdued. Expectations from both central banks now appear to be more evenly balanced. In light of these developments, we anticipate a continuation of bearish sentiment in the GBP/NZD pair, focusing on utilizing price action signals to guide our trading strategy.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD:Unraveling the Impact of UK Wage Growth DataGBP/USD:Unraveling the Impact of UK Wage Growth Data The Pound Sterling finds itself at a crossroads following the release of disappointing UK wage growth figures for the quarter ending November. Despite steady employment levels, the looming economic challenges cast a shadow on the currency's performance. A risk-off sentiment prevails, further intensified by concerns over UK inflation data, keeping the Pound Sterling under pressure. Market Response: During Tuesday's European morning session, the GBP/USD took a step back as the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) unveiled a slowdown in Average Earnings data for the three months leading up to November. This unexpected deceleration adds to the complexity of an already challenging economic landscape. Economic Challenges: The UK economy faces the ominous prospect of a technical recession, with the ONS reporting a contraction in the third quarter of 2023. The Bank of England (BoE) shares a cautious outlook, expressing less confidence in any growth during the final quarter of 2023. Factors such as higher interest rates and an escalating cost-of-living crisis contribute to the prevailing economic uncertainty. Technical Analysis: Examining the GBP/USD from a technical standpoint, the price retraced to the Demand Zone around the 61.8% Fibonacci area. This area becomes particularly significant due to the confluence with the Supply zone and the presence of the dynamic trendline within the Bullish Channel. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator signaling an Oversold condition presents an intriguing opportunity for traders. This setting potentially offers a discounted buying opportunity, with an optimistic outlook for a price surge aligned with the ongoing Bullish trend. Conclusion: As economic challenges cast a shadow on the Pound Sterling's performance, traders and investors closely monitor the technical landscape for potential opportunities. The convergence of factors, including the economic headwinds, technical indicators, and the cautious stance of the BoE, shapes the narrative for the GBP/USD. How the Pound navigates these challenges will be pivotal in determining its trajectory in the coming sessions. Our preference Long positions above 1.25350 with targets at 1.2750 & 1.2850 in extension
Long
by FOREXN1
4
GBP/USD Reacts Bullishly Amidst Retracement and Central Bank...GBP/USD Reacts Bullishly Amidst Retracement and Central Bank Caution In line with our previous forecast, GBP/USD has undergone a retracement, finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level within a range area. However, the market remains cautious as investors and traders brace for upcoming interest rate decisions by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. Both central banks are expected to maintain their current monetary policies, but the focus will be on their guidance for interest rates throughout 2024. Market Dynamics: Despite the cautious sentiment, the GBP/USD pair displayed a robust response in the EU session, showcasing a strong bullish impulse. This morning's market activity suggests that traders are actively positioning themselves ahead of the central bank decisions. BoE's Stance: BoE policymakers are anticipated to abstain from discussions about rate cuts, given that the United Kingdom economy is grappling with significantly higher inflationary pressures compared to the United States. This distinction in economic conditions is a crucial factor influencing the central bank's decision-making. Upcoming Data: Before the Fed's interest rate decision, all eyes will be on the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data for December, scheduled for publication at 13:30 GMT. This data will likely play a pivotal role in shaping expectations and market sentiment leading up to the Fed's decision. Forecast: Despite the cautious backdrop, our forecast for GBP/USD remains bullish, aligning with the morning's strong reaction and the overall technical setup. Traders are advised to stay vigilant, adapting their strategies as market dynamics unfold in response to central bank decisions and economic indicators. Our preference Long positions above 1.2600 with targets at 1.2850
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/USD Dynamics: Exploring the Impact of BoE's CPI ResistanceGBP/USD Dynamics: Exploring the Impact of BoE's CPI Resistance The Pound Sterling (GBP) swiftly rebounds, fueled by persistent UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, postponing expectations of early Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. Anticipated upside for the GBP/USD pair intensifies as investors speculate on potential early interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve (Fed). From a technical standpoint, our steadfast analysis suggests a GBP uptrend with an initial target set at 1.27500. BoE policymakers remain vigilant amid a vulnerable UK economic outlook and stubborn price pressures. Future movements of the Pound Sterling hinge on the upcoming Retail Sales data for December, poised to be unveiled on Friday. Favorable consumer spending figures would further dispel notions of an imminent BoE rate cut. Our preference Long positions above 1.25350 with targets at 1.2750 & 1.2850 in extension Our Previous Idea / entry :
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD: Navigating Swings and Shifting Fortunes Amidst Labor...GBP/USD: Navigating Swings and Shifting Fortunes Amidst Labor Market Focus GBP/USD embarked on a journey of bullish momentum, reaching heights of 1.2730 during the European session on Thursday. However, the narrative took an intriguing turn in the latter half of the day, with the pair closing virtually unchanged below the psychological threshold of 1.2700. As of the time of this analysis, the current trading level stands at 1.2667. This analysis explores the potential for a swing approach in the wake of recent market dynamics. Technical Perspective: The recent rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci area positions the price for a potential swing approach, signaling the formation of a new bullish impulse. This occurs against the backdrop of a bearish opening session on Friday, adding an element of unpredictability to the ongoing price action. Upcoming Jobs Report: The focus now shifts to the eagerly anticipated release of the December jobs report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Projections suggest that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are poised to rise by 168,000, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to inch up to 3.8% from November's 3.7%. The outcome of this report holds significant implications for GBP/USD. Potential Scenarios: In the event of an NFP increase surpassing 200,000, investors may recalibrate March rate-cut expectations, bolstering the US Dollar (USD) and exerting downward pressure on GBP/USD. Conversely, an NFP reading closer to 100,000 could reinforce the notion of a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy pivot, triggering a decline in US yields. In this scenario, GBP/USD could gain traction, aligning itself with the upward trajectory observed in US stocks. Our preference Long positions above 1.2500 with targets at 1.2750 & 1.2850 in extension
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/USD: Navigating Dollar Strength and Technical SignalsGBP/USD at Crossroads: Navigating Dollar Strength and Technical Signals Under the weight of a resurgent US Dollar (USD), GBP/USD faced downward pressure, descending to its lowest level since mid-December around 1.2610 on Tuesday. While a recovery towards 1.2650 unfolded early Wednesday, the technical landscape hints at the persistence of a bearish bias. Higher Timeframe Dynamics: Zooming into a higher timeframe, our H8 chart reveals a more nuanced perspective. The pair finds itself within a bullish channel, marked by a confluence of indicators. Notably, the 61.8% Fibonacci area, the 78.6% level, the dynamic Support trendline, and the 100 Moving Average collectively act as formidable support. This alignment suggests the potential for a fresh bullish impulse, particularly following the preceding pushdown. Adding another layer to the analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains within oversold territory. This technical signal further strengthens the case for a potential pullback, aligning with the broader perspective of a bullish continuation. Economic Data Outlook: On the economic front, focus shifts to key data releases. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to show a slight improvement, ticking up to 47.1 in December from 46.7 in November. Simultaneously, JOLTS Job Openings for November are expected to inch higher to 8.85 million from 8.73 million in October. Positive outcomes in these figures could reinvigorate the USD, while mixed data may keep markets on edge, awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting minutes. Conclusion: As GBP/USD grapples with Dollar strength and technical intricacies, traders find themselves at a crossroads. While the recent downturn is evident, the higher timeframe dynamics suggest a potential reversal. The interplay between technical signals, oversold conditions, and economic data releases sets the stage for a dynamic trading environment. As the market awaits key indicators and Fed minutes, investors remain poised for strategic moves in this ever-evolving currency landscape. Our preference Long positions above 1.2500 with targets at 1.2750 & 1.2850 in extension
Long
by FOREXN1
1