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Poundsterling

GBP/USD Weakness Continues Amid Expect. of Faster BoE Rate Cuts As anticipated in our previous analysis, the British Pound (GBP) remains under pressure, with the GBP/USD pair showing continued signs of weakness. Market sentiment suggests that the Bank of England (BoE) could accelerate its rate-cutting cycle, a view bolstered by recent dovish remarks from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. Last week, Bailey hinted that the central bank might adopt a more aggressive stance on cutting rates if inflation continues to show favorable trends. This prospect has increased market bets on rate cuts, which is contributing to the downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Market Sentiment: Retailers Hopeful, Smart Money Bearish From a sentiment perspective, retail traders remain hopeful for a possible bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. However, smart money (institutional investors) continues to lean towards a bearish outlook, aligning their positions with the broader market expectation of a weakening Pound in the face of potential rate cuts by the BoE. Technical Outlook: Identified Demand Area Technically, we have recognized a potential demand area where the price may find support. However, the downward trend could extend further, particularly after the release of the FOMC Minutes, which may provide more clarity on the direction of US monetary policy. This could continue to push the GBP/USD pair lower. At this moment, patience is crucial. We are waiting for the price to approach key levels where a potential reversal could occur, but it is essential to wait for confirmation before taking action. Conclusion The British Pound remains under pressure as markets increasingly believe that the Bank of England could accelerate its rate-cutting cycle. Governor Bailey's recent comments have fueled this speculation, leading to increased bearish sentiment in the GBP/USD pair. For now, patience remains key as we wait for the price to reach critical demand areas that may offer a chance for a reversal. Until then, traders should remain cautious and avoid premature entries. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Will GBP Drop Further? Bearish Pressure Mounts Near Key LevelThe British Pound (GBP) continues to face downside pressure near the key level of 1.3100 against the US Dollar (USD) during Monday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair remains under strain as the US Dollar holds firm, near a seven-week high, bolstered by strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, released last Friday. This robust US labor market performance has further supported the dollar's strength. In our previous analysis, we closed our positions on this pair (view chart below): GBP/USD Previous Forecast. Bearish Sentiment: Continuation or Reversal? Looking ahead, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders remain heavily on the bearish side, which adds weight to the possibility of further downside pressure. While there is no immediate position to open, we will be closely monitoring market developments. Given the fundamental outlook, our attention will turn to a potential long position if the price retraces to our identified Demand area. Until then, we remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals for a possible entry point as the market evolves. Conclusion With the US Dollar's recent strength driven by solid economic data, the GBP/USD pair continues to hover near critical levels. While the current sentiment leans bearish, we will keep a close watch on fundamental shifts and technical signals to reassess future trade opportunities. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
“The pound gained strength”The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its policy interest rate at 5.00%, with no changes. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that since they lowered the policy rate in August, inflationary pressures have continued to ease. Bailey also emphasized the importance of avoiding rate cuts that are too quick or too large. Following this development, the GBP/USD pair rose above the 1.33 level. From a technical perspective, if the 1.3355 level is permanently surpassed, the rise could accelerate toward 1.3430, followed by the 1.35 resistance level. On the downside, if prices fall below the 1.3270 level, the decline could extend first to 1.3150 and then further to the 1.3030 support level.
by primequotes
Trading Idea: GBP/EUR Resistance BreakoutCurrent Resistance Level: GBP/EUR is currently facing a resistance level. If the price breaks above this resistance, it could signal a potential bullish breakout. Next Target: After the breakout, the next key resistance level becomes the target. Bullish Pattern: There is also a potential bullish pattern forming, which could further support the breakout scenario. A confirmed breakout above the first resistance could lead the price to rally toward the second resistance level. Confirmation: Wait for a clear break and close above the current resistance, and a confirmation of the bullish pattern, to strengthen the breakout signal. Risk Management: Consider placing a stop-loss below the previous support level to manage risk in case of a false breakout.
Long
by WaveRiders2
GBP/USD Struggles as Dollar Strengthens Following Economic DataThe Pound Sterling has continued to underperform against the US Dollar, following a series of key economic events. Initially, on Friday, the USD experienced a brief weakening after the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims, which pointed to weaker-than-expected economic signals. U.S. employment growth for August came in below forecasts, casting doubt on the overall health of the labor market. However, the dollar quickly regained its strength, in line with last week’s price action, after market participants absorbed these figures and focused on other economic data points. Our previous forecast for GBP/USD, as outlined last week, highlighted a key supply area that would likely serve as a turning point for the pair, and indeed this has played out. The price action during the London session shows continued weakness in the British pound, confirming a bearish continuation as the USD maintains its momentum. The GBP remains under pressure as the pair seems unable to sustain any recovery attempts, particularly as the USD continues to recover its losses from earlier in the month. Previous Analysis: Looking ahead, tomorrow’s U.S. economic releases, including Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, will be crucial in determining whether the dollar can extend its bullish momentum. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. pre-election debate could add further volatility to the market, making this a key event for traders to watch. In conclusion, GBP/USD remains on a bearish trajectory, and further downside pressure could emerge if the upcoming U.S. data continues to support the case for dollar strength. Traders should stay alert to these key data points as they will likely set the tone for the pair’s movement in the coming days.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Shorts from 1.32600 for retracement My expected analysis for the week is that price will slow down at market open and potentially sell off from the 16-hour supply zone. Once price enters this zone, I will wait for an Asia high sweep and look for distribution on the lower time frames. If price breaks through this supply zone, there is an 18-hour supply zone where price might react. However, since this is a counter-trend trade idea, I expect price to retrace from this bias, allowing me to eventually buy from either the 4-hour supply zone or the 18-hour supply zone. Confluences for GU Sells are as follows: - Price has been very bullish, so a retracement is needed to sustain the upward movement. - The recent price action has been very parabolic, leading to unhealthy price behavior. - There are imbalances and liquidity below that need to be filled. - The 16-hour supply zone presents a potential opportunity for short trades. P.S. If price doesn't tap into the supply zone, I'll wait for it to come down to a demand zone before looking for buys to rejoin the trend. Have a great trading week, guys!
Short
by Hassan_fx
GBP/USD Continues Downtrend, Aligns with Supply ForecastGBP/USD has extended its decline after reaching our predicted supply area, as outlined in our previous analysis. (Link below.) Prolonged Downtrend Expected The current trend suggests that the price may continue to fall over the next few months, potentially reaching the demand area around 1.24 before experiencing a new bullish impulse. This aligns with our forecast, anticipating a bearish phase until October. Anticipation of Monetary Policy Announcements Traders are awaiting key monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. These events are expected to inject fresh volatility into the market, possibly pushing GBP/USD even lower. Market Sentiment and Indices Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 Index has dipped by 0.3%, while US stock index futures are trading marginally higher, reflecting a cautious market stance. Strategy and Outlook Given these conditions, we maintain our bearish outlook and continue to hold our short position, anticipating further downward movement in GBP/USD. Previous Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Hedge Funds' Sterling Bet: A Risky Gamble?A surge in bullish bets on the British pound sterling by hedge funds and other asset managers has ignited concerns about a potential market upheaval. Aggressive positioning on the currency has reached a 10-year high, leaving it vulnerable to a sharp correction should the Bank of England (BoE) decide to cut interest rates this week. The data, sourced from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, reveals a dramatic increase in net-long positions on sterling over the past month. This bullish sentiment has been fueled by a combination of factors, including relatively high interest rates, signs of economic improvement, and the perceived stability of the UK government. As a result, the pound has gained nearly 1% against the US dollar since the start of the year and reached a one-year high earlier this month. However, the market's optimism may be misplaced. The BoE's monetary policy decision on Thursday remains a significant uncertainty, with market pricing indicating an equal chance of a rate hike or a cut. If the central bank opts to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, it could have a severe impact on the pound. The heightened bullish sentiment among investors has created a scenario where even a hint of dovishness from the BoE could trigger a rapid unwinding of positions and a sharp decline in sterling. The potential for a significant market correction has prompted concerns among analysts and investors. Some argue that the current level of bullishness is excessive and that the market is underpricing the risk of a rate cut. They caution that a sudden shift in sentiment could lead to significant losses for those holding long positions on the pound. As the market awaits the BoE's decision, volatility is expected to remain high. The outcome of the meeting will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences for the pound and the broader global financial markets. If the central bank surprises the market with a rate cut, it could be a wake-up call for investors who have become overly complacent about the currency's prospects. Ultimately, the recent surge in bullish sterling bets highlights the inherent risks of relying on market consensus. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the current level of optimism surrounding the pound raises questions about the sustainability of the currency's strength. As the old adage goes, "buy low, sell high," but in this case, investors may be finding themselves on the wrong side of the trade.
by bryandowningqln
GBP/USD Weakens Amid Caution Ahead of Fed Powell’s SpeechThe GBP/USD pair has retraced to 1.2618 against the US Dollar (USD) during Tuesday’s London session. The pair's weakness is attributed to risk aversion among market participants, driven by uncertainty ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech and the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, scheduled for release on Friday. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair is moving towards a clear support/Demand area around 1.2540, which appears to be its next target. Powell is expected to provide crucial insights into when the central bank might begin lowering its key borrowing rates. This week, investors will closely monitor labor demand and wage growth data to determine if the Fed will consider reducing interest rates starting from the September meeting, as suggested by the 30-day Federal Fund futures pricing data from the CME FedWatch tool. Given the current market conditions, we are anticipating a bearish continuation towards the Demand area around 1.2540. Once this level is reached, we will look for a potential long position from that area. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1