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Poundsterling

$GBPUSD - Ending diagonal and Head and ShouldersHi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 GBPUSD is about to complete the Ending diagonal pattern to end this correction move. 🔔 There is a Head and Shoulders pattern which is clearly traced on this 4H chart, so keep an eye on that too. 🔔 There are no clear signs of a strong bullish reversal for Pound, although as seen on a larger time frame, it's most likely that GBPUSD will continue the correction further. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
Short
by azizelliott
2
GBP/USD - Crucial area to determine if we are heading lower🎡Technical Overview: - GBP/USD Check out our previous posted analysis Analysis is only 1 piece of the puzzle 🧩 Our analysis is a sentiment for the upcoming week, month. Use this as a weather forecast, you are the person that has to put on a jacket when it’s raining. Trade this sentiment based off your own entry strategy at the right time. Flow with the Devil 😈 Trade with the manipulation👾 STAY UPDATED BELOW!
by FlyDownX
2
GBP CHF BUY (POUND STERLING - SWISS FRANC)GBP - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Virus Situation The UK’s vaccination success has been a key driver of positive sentiment for GBP from the start of 2021 and has meant the county is on the verge of completely removing covid restrictions from the 19th of July. As long as the reopening moves forward as planned it should provide support for the GBP in the med-term. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE Markets were expecting a hawkish tilt from the BOE at their June meeting with Gilt yields, SONIA futures and Sterling pushing higher into the meeting. The bank took a more balanced view by sticking to a transitory inflation outlook and also slightly tempering the more aggressive rate path expectations going into the meeting. As a result, GBP, Yields and SONIA futures unwound their pre-meeting upside, The short-lived downside has played out and that means focus for Sterling should be back on the med-term outlook, where the BoE is still expected as the next in line to tilt more hawkish, and participants will look towards the August meeting which includes the next MPR . This view was further reinforced this past week when two MPC members (Ramsden & Saunders) gave some pretty upbeat and hawkish comments suggesting that the possibility of tapering QE will be one of the points of debate during the upcoming meeting and that conditions for tighter policy is materializing faster than previously anticipated. This week we have the most dovish member of the BoE (Haskel) set to talk and all eyes will be on whether he provides a similar hint which would be a positive for Sterling. 3. The country’s economic developments Hopes of a faster economic recovery has seen both the BOE and IMF upgrade growth projections for the UK economy which has widened the growth differentials between other majors by quite a bit and should continue to be supportive for GBP as long as the data continues to show better-than-expected prints. Something to be mindful of is that a lot of these positives are arguably reflected in the price. Thus, if we start to see some disappointing data, as we have more recently, that could start to weigh on some of the aggressive normalization expectations. 4. Political Developments Remember Brexit? Yeah, me neither, but it came back into focus in the form of the recent punchy rhetoric between the UK and EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol which sparked some concerns about possible sanctions on the UK. Even though issues like chilled meats have made progress, the protocol and Brexit itself is about much more than sausages. The latest issue has been that of the divorce bill, which the UK says is between 35 and 39 billion while EU counterparts says it’s over 40 billion Pounds. For now these challenges won’t change the med-term outlook for Sterling unless it leads to actual trader sanctions or tariffs, which right now seems unlikely. CHF - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish. Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind.
by thunderpips
3
GBP JPY BUY (POUND STERLING - JAPANESE YEN)GBP - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Virus Situation The UK’s vaccination success has been a key driver of positive sentiment for GBP from the start of 2021 and has meant the county is on the verge of completely removing covid restrictions from the 19th of July. As long as the reopening moves forward as planned it should provide support for the GBP in the med-term. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE Markets were expecting a hawkish tilt from the BOE at their June meeting with Gilt yields, SONIA futures and Sterling pushing higher into the meeting. The bank took a more balanced view by sticking to a transitory inflation outlook and also slightly tempering the more aggressive rate path expectations going into the meeting. As a result, GBP, Yields and SONIA futures unwound their pre-meeting upside, The short-lived downside has played out and that means focus for Sterling should be back on the med-term outlook, where the BoE is still expected as the next in line to tilt more hawkish, and participants will look towards the August meeting which includes the next MPR. This view was further reinforced this past week when two MPC members (Ramsden & Saunders) gave some pretty upbeat and hawkish comments suggesting that the possibility of tapering QE will be one of the points of debate during the upcoming meeting and that conditions for tighter policy is materializing faster than previously anticipated. This week we have the most dovish member of the BoE (Haskel) set to talk and all eyes will be on whether he provides a similar hint which would be a positive for Sterling. 3. The country’s economic developments Hopes of a faster economic recovery has seen both the BOE and IMF upgrade growth projections for the UK economy which has widened the growth differentials between other majors by quite a bit and should continue to be supportive for GBP as long as the data continues to show better-than-expected prints. Something to be mindful of is that a lot of these positives are arguably reflected in the price. Thus, if we start to see some disappointing data, as we have more recently, that could start to weigh on some of the aggressive normalization expectations. 4. Political Developments Remember Brexit? Yeah, me neither, but it came back into focus in the form of the recent punchy rhetoric between the UK and EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol which sparked some concerns about possible sanctions on the UK. Even though issues like chilled meats have made progress, the protocol and Brexit itself is about much more than sausages. The latest issue has been that of the divorce bill, which the UK says is between 35 and 39 billion while EU counterparts says it’s over 40 billion Pounds. For now these challenges won’t change the med-term outlook for Sterling unless it leads to actual trader sanctions or tariffs, which right now seems unlikely. JPY - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. Even though the correlation was exceptionally strong from the start of the year, we have started to see some breakdown in the correlation over the past few weeks. However, after the FOMC’s recent communication has improved the outlook for the US Dollar we would expect the low yielders like the JPY to remain pressured against the greenback which could see a weaker correlation develop with US10Y and see a continued bias titled higher for the USDJPY.
by thunderpips
2
GBPUSD - To Break LowerGBPUSD H1: Lots of confluence on GBPUSD here points to a break lower. Here we have a rejection of the 4 hour descending TL (on the 4 hour chart this also lines up with a rejection of the 100 EMA) The bullish push on the last hour candle I believe is one last run up before price continues its decline. 1.38 is holding as an area of support but if this breaks I believe we will see sub-1.38 prices today. With 1.39 holding as such strong psychological resistance i am definitely in favour of further bearish movement. The short position tool added to my chart highlights an excellent R:R of 1:4 with the target being at the 1.37500 mid-psychological level. let's see how this plays out! Hopefully some USD strength on New York open can provide further momentum to reaching target.
Short
by MMQ_FX
GBP/USD forecast Hello traders According to my wave count GBP/USD is on a corrective wave right now, i expect prices to break below the previous low at 1.3731 and if that happens price can go as low as 1.3400 since we will have bearish head & shoulder pattern breakout level, please be advice that is a 4 hour chart and if my analysis is right it make take several weeks to reach my targets I will enter short on this trade once a breakout occur below lower trendline of triangle on wave 4 happy trading
Short
by AlexPalmaFXTrader
Is Downing Street far-sighted or playing with fire? - ING*In the UK the focus is very much on the full re-opening of the economy despite rising case numbers. Here the government thinks the link between getting Covid-19 and hospitalizations has been broken by the vaccines. UK activity data is actually softening a little now, but full-year growth is still seen near 6.5%. *BoE Governor Bailey has poured cold water on early rate hike ideas. The first 10bp BoE hike is now priced for summer 2022 and the first full 25bp hike by March 2023. That may still be a little too soon. *We think GBP can hold onto its gains but do note event risks in September when: i) unemployment could rise when furlough ends and ii) N. Ireland friction could resume with the EU.
by thunderpips
2
GBP CHF BUY (POUND STERLING - SWISS FRANC)GBP - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Virus Situation The UK’s vaccination success has been a key driver of positive sentiment for GBP from the start of 2021 and has meant the county is on the verge of completely removing covid restrictions. One short-term negative is recent concerns about the Delta variant which has seen a 4-week delay in the planned reopening originally scheduled for June 21. This doesn’t change the fundamental bullish outlook and should be soon forgotten if the UK moves ahead with it’s new reopening from the middle of July. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE Markets were expecting a hawkish tilt from the BOE at their June meeting with Gilt yields, SONIA futures and Sterling pushing higher into the meeting. The bank took a more balanced view by sticking to a transitory inflation outlook and also slightly tempering the more aggressive rate path expectations going into the meeting. As a result, GBP, Yields and SONIA futures unwound their pre-meeting upside, The short-lived downside has played out and that means focus for Sterling should be back on the med-term outlook, where the BoE is still expected as the next in line to tilt more hawkish, and participants will look towards the August meeting which includes the next MPR. 3. The country’s economic developments Hopes of a faster economic reopening and recovery has seen both the BOE and IMF upgrade growth projections for the UK economy which has widened the growth differentials between other majors by quite a bit and is something that should continue to be a supportive factor for GBP as long as the data continues to show better-than-expected prints. Something that we should be mindful of here is that a lot of the positives that has driven Sterling higher in 2021 is arguably already reflected in the price. Thus, if we start to see some disappointing data, as we have more recently, that could start to weigh on some of the aggressive normalization expectations. 4. Political Developments Remember Brexit? Yeah, me neither, but it came back into focus in the form of the recent punchy rhetoric between the UK and EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol which sparked some concerns about possible sanctions on the UK. Even though issues like chilled meats have made progress, the protocol and Brexit itself is about much more than sausages. The latest issue has been that of the divorce bill, which the UK says is between 35 and 39 billion while EU counterparts says it’s over 40 billion Pounds. For now these challenges won’t change the med-term outlook for Sterling unless it leads to actual trader sanctions or tariffs, which right now seems unlikely. CHF - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish. Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind.
by thunderpips
3
GBP JPY BUY(POUND STERLING - JAPANESE YEN)GBP - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Virus Situation The UK’s vaccination success has been a key driver of positive sentiment for GBP from the start of 2021 and has meant the county is on the verge of completely removing covid restrictions. One short-term negative is recent concerns about the Delta variant which has seen a 4-week delay in the planned reopening originally scheduled for June 21. This doesn’t change the fundamental bullish outlook but is a short-term negative. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE Markets were expecting a very hawkish tilt from the BOE at their June meeting with Gilt yields across the curve pushing higher, and SONIA futures and Sterling pushing higher into the meeting. The bank took a more balanced view by sticking to a transitory inflation outlook and also slightly tempering the more aggressive rate path expectations going into the meeting. The bank is still expected as the next in line to tilt more hawkish, but participants will look towards the August meeting which includes the next MPR for more guidance on that front. 3. The country’s economic developments Hopes of a faster economic reopening and recovery has seen both the BOE and IMF upgrade growth projections for the UK economy which has widened the growth differentials between other majors by quite a bit and is something that should continue to be a supportive factor for GBP as long as the data continues to show better-than-expected prints. Something that we should be mindful of here is that a lot of the positives that has driven Sterling higher in 2021 is arguably already reflected in the price, but as long as the data continues to surprise to the upside the trend should be supportive for the GBP as it should provide further support for policy normalization from the BOE. 4. Political Developments Remember Brexit? Yeah, me neither, but it came back into focus in the form of the recent punchy rhetoric between the UK and EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. The EU reported that they will take a measured response to any further unilateral moves by the UK to delay implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol. The risk to the current dilemma is that it forces the EU’s hand to retaliate with possible sanctions or tiggering retaliatory measures through the Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Recent reports have suggested that both parties think the odds of reaching a breakthrough is good and has reduced some of the earlier fears about possible escalation in an already strained relationship. JPY - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor, especially in the current. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global synchronized economic recovery and reflation environment. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safehaven demand to diminish, resulting in a weak bearish fundamental outlook. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials as it affects carry trade dynamics. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. From the start of the year, (as the bias for US10Y started to tilt higher) the inverse correlation has been exceptionally strong over the past couple of weeks and moves in the US10Y continue to dominate JPY price action. As long as the med-term bias for US10Y remains titled higher, that should put additionally downside pressure on the JPY. As US yields have remained pressured following the FOMC, the USDJPY has continued to diverge from the price action in yields, with USDJPY steadily grinding higher while yields have remained pressured. For now, we are keeping a close eye on US10Y as a continued push lower could affect the USDJPY. However, after the FOMC’s recent communication has improved the outlook for the US Dollar we would expect the low yielders like the JPY to remain pressured against the greenback which could see a weaker correlation develop with US10Y.
by thunderpips
2
We remain short EUR/GBP in cash - NomuraIn the UK, the debate is centred on whether the government will decide to go ahead with the 19 July reopening (we expect most of the discussedloosening to materialize, but with some COVID-19 rules to remain for a bit longer) and if and when the BOE will turn more hawkish. Given the rise in the “Delta variant” and the delay in reopening the UK, UK equity outflows in June have weighed on the currency more than we expected. The BOE has also been more cautious than the Fed on rising inflation but, given the UK’s price pressures seen in the survey data, it appears to be just a matter of time before they need to become a bit more accepting of the idea. While we remain EUR optimists, GBP benefits from high exposure to the reopening trade (via equity sector exposure and reflation) and has a central bank that is more likely to tighten policy than the ECB. Thus, we remain short EUR/GBP in cash (target 0.83 by year end) but do note that it is unclear what will happen before the government makes its decision on the roadmap.
by thunderpips
1
GBPUSD: Update! Spotting False Breakout 🇬🇧🇺🇸 If you remember, last week we spotted a structure breakout on GBPUSD. The price broke and closed below a daily key level, and for us, it was a strong bearish clue. However, it turned out that the breakout was false. After a violation of a support, the price was accumulating for quite a while and managed to return back above the broken structure and also violate a falling parallel channel to the upside on 4H. It looks like the market maker is playing with our expectations here. Adjusting my analysis, now I am locally bullish biased and expect a local bullish continuation. ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
19
GBPUSD - 2021-2022 FX Forecasts from investment Bank BarclaysThe bank remains confident in a UK economic recovery, but expects that monetary policy will be the key influence on Sterling. “We also expect the BoE to move in line with the Fed and slowly signal some monetary policy normalisation.” If, however, the Bank of England lags behind the Fed in terms of adjusting policy, then the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is liable to lose ground. Assuming the BoE does respond, GBP/USD is forecast to be little changed with the Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate weakening to 0.82 by the third quarter of 2022.
by thunderpips
GBP: Calm week aheadFundamental bias: Neutral It should be a calm week on the UK front and for sterling next week. The UK-EU trade dispute has calmed and it seems the grace period on chilled meats imports to NI will be extended. The BoE did not bring too much surprise this week and although a little bit more hawkish than expected, still the MPC refrained from pointing at earlier rate hikes. This suggests some stabilisation in sterling ahead and should EUR/USD continue its slow recovery to and above the 1.20 level, it should bring GBP higher with it. On the UK data front, the final 1Q UK GDP reading (Wednesday) should not bring any surprise, while June housing prices data and may mortgage approvals (both on Tuesday) won’t affect sterling at all. As long as the dollar continues reversing some of its last week’s losses, it should be enough to push GBP/USD mildly higher.
by thunderpips