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GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS1. Virus Situation. Regarding the UK's coronavirus outlook, this remains encouraging with the UK's vaccine program having administered at least one dose to over half of the UK population. Given the current success of its vaccine program, the UK is now in the early stages of lifting lockdown restrictions. While the UK's coronavirus outlook is improving, we expect GBP to remain well supported. The biggest risk to this view is the current challenges regarding the AstraZeneca vaccine, which the UK is very reliant upon to reach their vaccination targets. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE. From the start of the year the BOE had a change of heart regarding negative interest rates when on the 12th of Jan Governor Bailey pushed back against negative rates, and that view was confirmed in the BOE’s meeting on the 4th of February where they firmly pushed back against negative rates. Even though the BOE is nowhere close to hawkish, their less dovish demeanour regarding the overall economic outlook (and unphased approach to rising yields) have seen markets shifting their monetary policy expectations from expecting the next move to be a 10 bsp cut to now expecting the next move to be a hike of 10 bsp. 3. The country’s economic developments. Economic data has been better-than-expected despite renewed lockdown measures that was announced at the end of last year. The hopes of a possible faster economic reopening and subsequent recovery has seen both the BOE and IMF upgrade growth projections for the UK economy which has widened the growth differentials between other majors by quite a bit and is something that should continue to be a supportive factor for GBP.
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GBP: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: April 14 – The UK’s coronavirus count increased to 4,378,304 cases (+2,490). March 31 – GDP for Q4 printed at 1.3% Q/Q and -7.3% Y/Y, revised from 1.0% and -7.8%, respectively. The report published by the ONS also noted that household savings for the quarter grew to their biggest ever level. This is supportive of recent comments from the BoE, who expect a significant increase in consumer activity once lockdowns are lifted. March 24 – CPI for February slowed to 0.4% Y/Y (prior 0.7%) and printed at 0.1% M/M (prior -0.2%). Core CPI slowed to 0.9% Y/Y (prior 1.4%) and printed at 0.0% M/M (prior -0.5%). March 18 – At their March meeting, the BoE kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE added that they do not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that there is significant progress towards eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation goal. February 23 – The Unemployment Rate for December increased to 5.1% from a prior of 5.0%. Employment Change printed at -114K while Average Earnings printed at 4.7% 3M Y/Y. For January, Claimant Count Change printed at -20.0K. Future Sentiment Shifts: There are several risks to GBP’s outlook, particularly with respect to the UK’s coronavirus/lockdown outlook and interest rate expectations. Of these two, expect the UK’s coronavirus outlook to play the more influential role in the short term as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout continues to show signs of stabilizing its breakout, which in turn, should allow the UK to ease lockdown restrictions in the months ahead. However, in the medium term, as the market’s focus shifts, monetary policy should dominate. Regarding monetary policy, risks still remain; although, further easing appears unlikely at this point and markets looking for a hike in 2022. Primary Drivers: Bank of England – Monetary Policy in the UK remains highly influential to GBP’s fundamental outlook. Expectations for policy tightening should prove GBP positive, while expectations for policy easing should prove GBP negative. Brexit – The outlook for the UK’s exit from the EU in December remains a key influence for GBP as it poses significant risks to the UK’s economic outlook. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year and progress in negotiations between the UK and the EUR significantly hampered by the coronavirus outbreak, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside with a hard Brexit or even no deal Brexit remaining distinct possibilities.
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GBP: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: April 12 – The UK’s coronavirus count increased to 4,373,342 cases (+3,567). March 31 – GDP for Q4 printed at 1.3% Q/Q and -7.3% Y/Y, revised from 1.0% and -7.8%, respectively. The report published by the ONS also noted that household savings for the quarter grew to their biggest ever level. This is supportive of recent comments from the BoE, who expect a significant increase in consumer activity once lockdowns are lifted. March 24 – CPI for February slowed to 0.4% Y/Y (prior 0.7%) and printed at 0.1% M/M (prior -0.2%). Core CPI slowed to 0.9% Y/Y (prior 1.4%) and printed at 0.0% M/M (prior -0.5%). March 18 – At their March meeting, the BoE kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE added that they do not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that there is significant progress towards eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation goal. February 23 – The Unemployment Rate for December increased to 5.1% from a prior of 5.0%. Employment Change printed at -114K while Average Earnings printed at 4.7% 3M Y/Y. For January, Claimant Count Change printed at -20.0K. Future Sentiment Shifts: There are several risks to GBP’s outlook, particularly with respect to the UK’s coronavirus/lockdown outlook and interest rate expectations. Of these two, expect the UK’s coronavirus outlook to play the more influential role in the short term as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout continues to show signs of stabilizing its breakout, which in turn, should allow the UK to ease lockdown restrictions in the months ahead. However, in the medium term, as the market’s focus shifts, monetary policy should dominate. Regarding monetary policy, risks still remain; although, further easing appears unlikely at this point and markets looking for a hike in 2022. Primary Drivers: Bank of England – Monetary Policy in the UK remains highly influential to GBP’s fundamental outlook. Expectations for policy tightening should prove GBP positive, while expectations for policy easing should prove GBP negative. Brexit – The outlook for the UK’s exit from the EU in December remains a key influence for GBP as it poses significant risks to the UK’s economic outlook. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year and progress in negotiations between the UK and the EUR significantly hampered by the coronavirus outbreak, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside with a hard Brexit or even no deal Brexit remaining distinct possibilities.
by thunderpips
GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS1. Virus Situation Regarding the UK's coronavirus outlook, this remains encouraging with the UK's vaccine program having administered at least one dose to over half of the UK population. Given the current success of its vaccine program, the UK is now in the early stages of lifting lockdown restrictions. While the UK's coronavirus outlook is improving, we expect GBP to remain well supported. The biggest risk to this view is the current challenges regarding the AstraZeneca vaccine, which the UK is very reliant upon to reach their vaccination targets. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE From the start of the year the BOE had a change of heart regarding negative interest rates when on the 12th of Jan Governor Bailey pushed back against negative rates, and that view was confirmed in the BOE’s meeting on the 4th of February where they firmly pushed back against negative rates. Even though the BOE is nowhere close to hawkish, their less dovish demeanour regarding the overall economic outlook (and unphased approach to rising yields) have seen markets shifting their monetary policy expectations from expecting the next move to be a 10 bsp cut to now expecting the next move to be a hike of 10 bsp. 3. The country’s economic developments Economic data has been better-than-expected despite renewed lockdown measures that was announced at the end of last year. The hopes of a possible faster economic reopening and subsequent recovery has seen both the BOE and IMF upgrade growth projections for the UK economy which has widened the growth differentials between other majors by quite a bit and is something that should continue to be a supportive factor for GBP.
by thunderpips
GBP: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: April 7 – The UK’s coronavirus count increased to 4,367,291 cases (+2,763). March 31 – GDP for Q4 printed at 1.3% Q/Q and -7.3% Y/Y, revised from 1.0% and -7.8%, respectively. The report published by the ONS also noted that household savings for the quarter grew to their biggest ever level. This is supportive of recent comments from the BoE, who expect a significant increase in consumer activity once lockdowns are lifted. March 24 – CPI for February slowed to 0.4% Y/Y (prior 0.7%) and printed at 0.1% M/M (prior -0.2%). Core CPI slowed to 0.9% Y/Y (prior 1.4%) and printed at 0.0% M/M (prior -0.5%). March 18 – At their March meeting, the BoE kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE added that they do not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that there is significant progress towards eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation goal. February 23 – The Unemployment Rate for December increased to 5.1% from a prior of 5.0%. Employment Change printed at -114K while Average Earnings printed at 4.7% 3M Y/Y. For January, Claimant Count Change printed at -20.0K. Future Sentiment Shifts: There are several risks to GBP’s outlook, particularly with respect to the UK’s coronavirus/lockdown outlook and interest rate expectations. Of these two, expect the UK’s coronavirus outlook to play the more influential role in the short term as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout continues to show signs of stabilizing its breakout, which in turn, should allow the UK to ease lockdown restrictions in the months ahead. However, in the medium term, as the market’s focus shifts, monetary policy should dominate. Regarding monetary policy, risks still remain; although, further easing appears unlikely at this point and markets looking for a hike in 2022. Primary Drivers: Bank of England – Monetary Policy in the UK remains highly influential to GBP’s fundamental outlook. Expectations for policy tightening should prove GBP positive, while expectations for policy easing should prove GBP negative. Brexit – The outlook for the UK’s exit from the EU in December remains a key influence for GBP as it poses significant risks to the UK’s economic outlook. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year and progress in negotiations between the UK and the EUR significantly hampered by the coronavirus outbreak, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside with a hard Brexit or even no deal Brexit remaining distinct possibilities.
by thunderpips
GBP - CENTRAL BANK ANALYSISObjective: Through the Bank of England Act 1998, the responsibility for formulating monetary policy, including the objective of stable prices defined by the government's inflation target of 2.0%, was delegated to the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). As of February's report, inflation in the UK stands at 0.4% Y/Y, compared to January's 0.7% Y/Y. Core CPI for the month stands at 0.9%, compared to a prior of 1.4%. Situation: The BoE kept its Official Bank Rate unchanged at their March meeting at 0.10% with a vote split of 0-0-9. The MPC also voted unanimously to keep its Asset Purchase Facility unchanged for a total of £895 billion. At the meeting, the BoE stated that it does not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation target sustainably. The BoE concluded that its current stance remains appropriate and news of recent plans for lifting restrictions may be consistent with a slightly stronger outlook for consumption growth.
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GBP - BULLISHThe focus for GBP is likely to be firmly fixed on the coronavirus outbreak now that the UK and EU have reached a Brexit agreement. Of course, although the market's focus on Brexit is now likely to markedly fade, the UK and EU's relationship will still remain of importance for GBP. This has been highlighted in recent sessions by the rise in UK/EU tensions over coronavirus vaccine supplies and distribution. Regarding the UK's coronavirus outlook, this remains encouraging with the UK's vaccine program having administered at least one dose to over half of the UK population. Given the current success of its vaccine program, the UK is now in the early stages of lifting lockdown restrictions. While the UK's coronavirus outlook is improving, we expect GBP to remain well supported, resulting in a bullish fundamental outlook.
by thunderpips
GBP: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: March 31 – GDP for Q4 printed at 1.3% Q/Q and -7.3% Y/Y, revised from 1.0% and -7.8%, respectively. The report published by the ONS also noted that household savings for the quarter grew to their biggest ever level. This is supportive of recent comments from the BoE, who expect a significant increase in consumer activity once lockdowns are lifted. March 30 – The UK’s coronavirus count increased to 4,341,736 cases (+4,040). March 24 – CPI for February slowed to 0.4% Y/Y (prior 0.7%) and printed at 0.1% M/M (prior -0.2%). Core CPI slowed to 0.9% Y/Y (prior 1.4%) and printed at 0.0% M/M (prior -0.5%). March 18 – At their March meeting, the BoE kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE added that they do not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that there is significant progress towards eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation goal. February 23 – The Unemployment Rate for December increased to 5.1% from a prior of 5.0%. Employment Change printed at -114K while Average Earnings printed at 4.7% 3M Y/Y. For January, Claimant Count Change printed at -20.0K. Future Sentiment Shifts: There are several risks to GBP’s outlook, particularly with respect to the UK’s coronavirus/lockdown outlook and interest rate expectations. Of these two, expect the UK’s coronavirus outlook to play the more influential role in the short term as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout continues to show signs of stabilizing its breakout, which in turn, should allow the UK to ease lockdown restrictions in the months ahead. However, in the medium term, as the market’s focus shifts, monetary policy should dominate. Regarding monetary policy, risks still remain; although, further easing appears unlikely at this point and markets looking for a hike in 2022. Primary Drivers: Bank of England – Monetary Policy in the UK remains highly influential to GBP’s fundamental outlook. Expectations for policy tightening should prove GBP positive, while expectations for policy easing should prove GBP negative. Brexit – The outlook for the UK’s exit from the EU in December remains a key influence for GBP as it poses significant risks to the UK’s economic outlook. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year and progress in negotiations between the UK and the EUR significantly hampered by the coronavirus outbreak, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside with a hard Brexit or even no deal Brexit remaining distinct possibilities.
by thunderpips
8
GBP: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: March 28 – The UK’s coronavirus count increased to 4,333,042 cases (+3,862). March 24 – CPI for February slowed to 0.4% Y/Y (prior 0.7%) and printed at 0.1% M/M (prior -0.2%). Core CPI slowed to 0.9% Y/Y (prior 1.4%) and printed at 0.0% M/M (prior -0.5%). March 18 – At their March meeting, the BoE kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE added that they do not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that there is significant progress towards eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation goal. February 23 – The Unemployment Rate for December increased to 5.1% from a prior of 5.0%. Employment Change printed at -114K while Average Earnings printed at 4.7% 3M Y/Y. For January, Claimant Count Change printed at -20.0K. November 12 – Preliminary Q3 GDP printed at 15.5% Q/Q and -9.6% Y/Y versus expectations for 15.8% and -9.4% respectively. Future Sentiment Shifts: There are several risks to GBP’s outlook, particularly with respect to the UK’s coronavirus/lockdown outlook and interest rate expectations. Of these two, expect the UK’s coronavirus outlook to play the more influential role in the short term as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout continues to show signs of stabilizing its breakout, which in turn, should allow the UK to ease lockdown restrictions in the months ahead. However, in the medium term, as the market’s focus shifts, monetary policy should dominate. Regarding monetary policy, risks still remain; although, further easing appears unlikely at this point and markets looking for a hike in 2022. Primary Drivers: Bank of England – Monetary Policy in the UK remains highly influential to GBP’s fundamental outlook. Expectations for policy tightening should prove GBP positive, while expectations for policy easing should prove GBP negative. Brexit – The outlook for the UK’s exit from the EU in December remains a key influence for GBP as it poses significant risks to the UK’s economic outlook. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year and progress in negotiations between the UK and the EUR significantly hampered by the coronavirus outbreak, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside with a hard Brexit or even no deal Brexit remaining distinct possibilities.
by thunderpips
GBP - BULLISHThe focus for GBP is likely to be firmly fixed on the coronavirus outbreak now that the UK and EU have reached a Brexit agreement. Of course, although the market's focus on Brexit is now likely to markedly fade, the UK and EU's relationship will still remain of importance for GBP. This has been highlighted in recent sessions by the rise in UK/EU tensions over coronavirus vaccine supplies and distribution. Regarding the UK's coronavirus outlook, this remains encouraging with the UK's vaccine program having administered at least one dose to almost half of the UK population. Given the current success of its vaccine program, the UK is now in the early stages of lifting lockdown restrictions. While the UK's coronavirus outlook is improving, we expect GBP to remain well supported, resulting in a bullish fundamental outlook.
by thunderpips
10
12-Month GBP/AUD Forecast: 1.72 Says Westpac AnalystForeign exchange analysts at Westpac expects that near-term yield trends will support the Pound-to-Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate, especially with a less dovish tone from the Bank of England (BoE). Overall global trends, however, will see a reversal later in the year, especially with the Australian trade surplus. “The Aussie stands to gain more from a synchronised global rebound over 2021 than the pound does, especially with Asia likely to keep outperforming. Near term GBP/AUD could rally a bit further, towards 1.8200, but our baseline forecasts are lower over the year, to 1.7500 then 1.7200.” GBP/AUD has not traded as low as 1.72 since January 2018. BoE stance underpins the Pound Sterling GBP/AUD has posted net gains in 2021 with less dovish rhetoric from the Bank of England one important element. Westpac notes; “BoE official rhetoric has been mixed but overall less dovish than the RBA’s.” In this context, 2-year yield spreads have moved into the Pound Sterling’s favour Looking at Reserve Bank policy, Westpac expects smaller QE packages in late 2021 and in 2022 as the labour market still has plenty of slack. Westpac also notes optimism over the UK outlook. “The UK has vaccinated a larger proportion of its population than most major economies, which should reinforce the BoE’s optimism over economic recovery later in 2021.” Trade surplus supports the Australian Dollar There has been a sharp turnaround in the Australian trade position. The latest data recorded a surplus of A$8.1bn for February from A$8.2bn the previous month and has been consistently in surplus during the past year. There has also been a sharp turnaround in the current account with an A$14.5bn for the fourth quarter of 2020 from A$10.7bn previously. Westpac also expects that the Australian economy will continue to draw support from further strength in the Asian economy which will feed through into the trade account. Westpac notes; “In isolation, yield spreads still suggest downside risk for AUD. But Australia’s historically rare current account surpluses provide solid insulation.” Both currencies will tend to be vulnerable if there is a sustained deterioration in risk appetite. In contrast, there will be scope for net gains if global equity markets post further strong gains.
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