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Poundsterling

GBPUSD - Correction and downHello traders, The higher probability scenario for GBPUSD in the coming week is a correction to the upside and then a continuation to the downside. The area where the reversal is most possible is highlighted on the chart. Trade with care. Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. We do not recommend making hurried trading decisions. You should always understand the risk that trading implies and that PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Short
by FractalTrading
CABLE H&S UPDATECABLE has been very interesting lately. Sterling has surprised with decent data but the overall outlook for the sterling fundamentally remains the same, the market is expecting one more rate hike. The strong data however is creating a very RANGY environment for this pair. We saw this when the last bearish move was RETESTED all the way to the 68 fib zone. My bias on this pair remains BEARISH however, and i believe that the USDX will continue to control the OVERALL DIRECTION of this currency pair. From a short term standpoint we can see a HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern forming, with the HEAD being the afformentioned 68 retest of our bearish momentum. this is a strong indication that the pair will continue to move downward, so long as our NECKLINE is protected by price action. Look for a formation of a RIGHT SHOULDER here potentially coming, before the true trend takes over. Trail your stops on this pair folks it has been swinging back and forth and i expect it to CONTINUE to do so.
Short
by NakedTrading4U
5
British Pound/ GBPUSD Trading Plan for Next WeekI think British Pound is inside a range in bigger timeframe. We are in the support of the range now. Some bullish confirmation had been made: break of the trendline. This is similar to my EURO Trade ideas We may see a retest of the trendline, and/or pattern formation in support zone (around yellow dotted line below), hence we can try to limit buy there. Should the support broken, we can try to sell. Confirmation of bullish bias: Break of the 200 EMA Manage your risk properly!
Long
by Evolutiontrading-Indonesia
2
EURGBP ShortNext week is a big one for the pound, and by extension the EURGBP. Assuming there are no fundamental surprises in data I’m expecting the EURGBP to move lower. Analysing the volume and the divergences between the current price moves and indicators suggest that this recent move is beginning to run out of steam. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the pair reaches the 0.89-0.895 level before moving lower. My entry was 0.8891 with my profit levels as follows - TP 1 - 0.8800 TP 2 - 0.8770 I believe the pair will continue move within the pre-existing rising trend line (BLUE) but I anticipate any significant moves will be resulting from interest rates and, or, the war. As always, this is just my opinion and should not be used as an entry into the markets. Don’t forget, opinions are like ar$e holes, everyone has one and they mostly produce sh1t Happy trading!
Short
by jamesfrench73
2
GBPJPY LONG BIAS (SWING IDEA)Hello everyone! I have updated my GJ chart. I have realised that there was a clear sell missed on the LTF, where the white POI zone is marked. However, GJ is going to test a crucial Demand zone and i will be looking to Swing trade this once i see LTF confirmations on my chart! The buy target is very much realistic. As on monthly, GJ hitting 184 is very possible in the next year or two. Any questions, Ideas, or objections please comment down below or DM me :) Take care traders!
Long
by NeddFx13
GBP/USD -15/12/2022-• Potential inverse head and shoulders • Bullish reversal pattern forming after a downtrend bottom • Expect right shoulder to have a higher support than left shoulder • Therefore, a retracement to 1.20 or 1.19 expected before the upside breakout • Breaking the left shoulder's support around 1.17 invalidates this pattern • Upside target is projected based on the height between head and neckline • Successful breakout implies Pound surging towards 1.40
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
GBP/USD: Pound in a tough resistance zone. Pullback in sight?The British pound has staged an impressive 18% rebound since its September's lows and is now entering a pivotal week given the upcoming Fed's (Wednesday) and BoE's (Thursday) meetings. Even though the latest signs of economic activity are mostly better or in line with expectations, they actually show that the economy is slowing down and that a recession is getting closer and closer. Following a 0.6% decline in September 2022, the UK GDP increased 0.5% in October, the largest growth in over a year and slightly above predictions of 0.4%. The service sector, which continues to be resilient, had the greatest expansion. Instead, industrial production in October 2022 was flat from the previous month, following a 0.2% decline in September, which also matched market expectations. Continuing growth uncertainties and housing market jitters might have future dovish consequences for the BoE. On Thursday, it will be important to know if the differences between board members that have already come up are getting bigger. At the last BoE meeting, the vote to raise 75 basis points was divided (7-2). Markets are pricing in 56 basis points, thereby fully expecting 50bps. As a result, anything less than 75bps will be a marginally negative outcome for the pound. A hawkish Fed and a dovish BoE will have a negative impact on GBP/USD, which has recently re-established its correlation with the 2-year yield differential after decoupling from August to October. How to tactically trade GBP/USD this week: Key technical levels to watch The cable technically broke above the 200-day moving average (1.211) and has remained above it since the beginning of the month. As we get closer to a crucial resistance area around 1.225-1.24, which corresponds to June highs and a 6-month 100% Fibonacci retracement level, the bullish wave is beginning to lose some of its momentum. Following the solid rally since November, the upside potential for the pound looks to be rather stretched, and this week's rising risks of a hawkish Fed and USD bullish sentiment may lead to some pullbacks to 1.20 or lower. 1.196 is an intriguing initial line of support to keep an eye on, corresponding to the 78.6% Fibonacci level and the -1std of the 20dma Bollinger band. If cable fails to hold there, 1.161 (61.8% Fibonacci) might be a month-end target.
by Capitalcom
2
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. At their NOV policy decision, the BoE’s updated projections showed a deeper and longer recession than previously thought, as well as a stern push back against current market pricing for the high implied rate path. However, rate markets did not respond to this with only marginal downside in terminal rate expectations. With the new budget now out of the way, the markets should turn their attention to what this means for the economic outlook and means economic data & BoE policy should start to matter a bit more again. Unfortunately, the week ahead is extremely light so the main driver will probably be overall risk sentiment. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. Any overly positive takes from BoE speak regarding the budget could be taken as a positive for Sterling. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. Any overly negative takes from BoE speak regarding the budget could be taken as a negative for Sterling. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish with the UK already in a recession based on recent data. At least the new PM has provided some calm to the fiscal situation and political uncertainty though. Expectations are for a lot of pain ahead for the UK economy which means the fundamental outlook remains bearish . But with a lot of bad news priced, we’re looking for shortterm upside opportunities. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, we have a few of important data points such as ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP on Friday. However, also pay close attention to the scheduled speech from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. The speech from Fed Chair Powell will be important. If he delivers the same stern hawkish tone that accompanied the prior FOMC presser, it can provide upside for the USD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
23
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. At their NOV policy decision, the BoE’s updated projections showed a deeper and longer recession than previously thought, as well as a stern push back against current market pricing for the high implied rate path. However, rate markets did not respond to this with only marginal downside in terminal rate expectations. With the new budget now out of the way, the markets should turn their attention to what this means for the economic outlook and means economic data & BoE policy should start to matter a bit more again. Unfortunately, the week ahead is extremely light so the main driver will probably be overall risk sentiment. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. Any overly positive takes from BoE speak regarding the budget could be taken as a positive for Sterling. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. Any overly negative takes from BoE speak regarding the budget could be taken as a negative for Sterling. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish with the UK already in a recession based on recent data. At least the new PM has provided some calm to the fiscal situation and political uncertainty though. Expectations are for a lot of pain ahead for the UK economy which means the fundamental outlook remains bearish . But with a lot of bad news priced, we’re looking for shortterm upside opportunities. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, we have a few of important data points such as ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP on Friday. However, also pay close attention to the scheduled speech from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. The speech from Fed Chair Powell will be important. If he delivers the same stern hawkish tone that accompanied the prior FOMC presser, it can provide upside for the USD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. At their NOV policy decision, the BoE’s updated projections showed a deeper and longer recession than previously thought, as well as a stern push back against current market pricing for the high implied rate path. However, rate markets did not respond to this with only marginal downside in terminal rate expectations. With the new budget now out of the way, the markets should turn their attention to what this means for the economic outlook and means economic data & BoE policy should start to matter a bit more again. Unfortunately, the week ahead is extremely light so the main driver will probably be overall risk sentiment. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. Any overly positive takes from BoE speak regarding the budget could be taken as a positive for Sterling. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. Any overly negative takes from BoE speak regarding the budget could be taken as a negative for Sterling. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish with the UK already in a recession based on recent data. At least the new PM has provided some calm to the fiscal situation and political uncertainty though. Expectations are for a lot of pain ahead for the UK economy which means the fundamental outlook remains bearish. But with a lot of bad news priced, we’re looking for shortterm upside opportunities. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, we have a few of important data points such as ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP on Friday. However, also pay close attention to the scheduled speech from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. The speech from Fed Chair Powell will be important. If he delivers the same stern hawkish tone that accompanied the prior FOMC presser, it can provide upside for the USD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
9