Poundyen
GBPJPY ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 2022FX:GBPJPY
The monthly chart shows that British Pound very probably will increase in value against the Japanese Yen. As we can see in May the price consolidated and closed above the resistance. In June we can expect the candle to form a bottom wick and continue to go up to fill the wick of April, once it exceeds April's high, it has a free traffic until 172.600.
Another possible scenario is a pure consolidation of the price around that zone. It may drug up and down without decisive direction for a whole summer. However, one a big scale it is very improbabile it will break the bullish trend.
Will we see GBPJPY reach 164.242 this week?Watch how price responds to the diagonal levels and the horizontal level. I am looking for a breakout candle to close above the horizontal level first. Next, I am looking for a candlestick to close above the diagonal trend line line. If price closes above the diagonal trend line, then I will consider a long entry.
Do technicals point to more downside for GBPJPY?This most recent week, we saw GBP/JPY following the same bearish direction as the previous three weeks, with its strongest impulse happening during Wednesday's New York session. When looking at the weekly time frame, this pair has been in an uptrend. However, it is fast approaching a breakout of this upwards trendline, which has held prices up for the past couple of years.
Technically we can look at the hourly chart and see the adherence the price showed to the Fibonacci and Exponential Moving Average.
Looking at the most recent hourly range, we see GBPJPY retrace above the week's opening price during Monday's New York session to the 61.8 level. In that area is the EMA indicating another confluence for a move down. Price didn’t return to that area, with only two other weak retracements shown before the sell-off.
Fundamentally speaking, there were no high impact news events for either currency last week. However, the UK has had its hands full with several factors. Brexit issues with Ireland continue, and numbers show the economy shrank at the end of March. Factor in that the Japanese Yen is typically seen as a safe haven, and the bearishness in this pair isn't too surprising.
The coming week for GBPJPY
Looking ahead at this upcoming week, it is full of news events for the GBP, with monetary policy report hearings happening Monday. This is followed by unemployment, CPI numbers, and retail sales later in the week. Of course, the most critical report is CPI, which I released on Wednesday. UK's CPI for April is expected to rise two percentage points to 9%, from 7% in March.
The significant economic report from Japan is released at the end of the week. Japan's April CPI is released on Friday, and the market consensus is that it will rise to 1.5% from 1.2% in the previous reading.
GBPJPY 27.02.2022Looking to short GJ from 155.500
Confluences:
- Bearish market structure as LLs and LHs are being printed.
- Broke below 155.500 support region without retest.
- Retest level (155.500) which is currently the support-turned-resistance level falls inline with the 61.8% fib reversal levels.
A potential push to higher fib extensions may occur, will look for signs of rejections once market reaches the sell zone
British Pound Melts Down Against Japanese Yen
The British pound has melted down against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Thursday as Russia has attacked Ukraine. This obviously has caused quite a bit of fear in the market, and therefore it makes sense that we would see plenty of selling pressure when it comes to risk appetite. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to be very difficult to deal with but at the end of the day it is likely to see more selling than buying. Because of this, I like the idea of fading rallies as they occur and jumping on them at the first sign of exhaustion. This will be especially true if things actually escalate in Ukraine, something that seems very possible.
GBPJPY 4hr Analysis, Week 4 2022Daily Market structure is Bearish
4hr Market structure is Bearish,
Weekly momentum has spilled over from
last week. Fear continues to plague the Stock Indexes
No reason to be a hero and call a bottom in the market
Probably smart to relax and continue trading with the trend
GJ Shorts GBP/JPY looks like its in for a ride on the trend line break. Followed by this we have retraced 61.8% into 156.700. With this in mind and a combination of market structure forming lower highs and lower lows I do expect multiple rejections on 156.7 forming a lower high bringing in an opportunity for shorts into 154.5. in order for this to be valid, as mentioned we need candles to remain below 156.7 and a strong bearish candlestick closure on the 4HR tf.
GBPJPY Long scenarioWhat we can see is the market has moved to the upside for this week and we will be looking at continuing our bullish trend. We have 2 buy zones, the higher being higher risk and based off the structure zone acting as a broken resistance. The lower zone has a true demand zone within it and a void that would be filled before the continuation to the upside. Watch over the next few hours as the Euro and London market open for the day.
GBPJPY - Week Ahead - Bullish BiasPrice action broke the downtrend structure and created a higher high last week and a higher low
Put an uptrend Fib on the recent daily high and price closed @ the 618 level on Friday, if price breaks 154.24 then expecting price to continue to next resistance at 156 with uptrend structure, HH's + HL's
News this week
JPY - Bank holiday - Nov 23rd
USD - Prelim GDP - Nov 24th
USD FOMC - Nov 24th
GBP - Gov Bailey Speaks - Nov 25th
GBPJPY Week AheadGJ is on an uptrend on the weekly time frame within an ascending channel
On the daily timeframe - GJ is pulling back from highs and is trending down
3 Trades Ideas for GBPJPY
1. Bullish bias - If price rejects the previous resistance level @ 152.30 and past 153.30 (previous highs) then we would see a break of the downtrend structure and expect price to continue up
2. Bullish bias - If price continues down to the bottom of the ascending trend line and rejects then again we would see a break of structure (BOS) above 153.80 towards 155.30 (50% fib) or 156 (618% fib)
3. Bearish bias - If price breaks below 152.40 - 152.30 then we could see a continued downtrend especially if we see closures below. Then targets would be next support @ 151.35 then 149.95
News this week
UK jobs numbers on Tuesday @ 7am GMT - gains in employment will be bullish for the Pound
UK Inflation data on Wed morning 7am GMT - BoE upper limits are 3% for inflation, Forecasts are 3.9% which could further fuel bets of a rate hike which would be bullish for the Pound