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Sintra Signals: Central Banks Stay Cautious The ECB Forum in Sintra brought together the heads of the world’s most influential central banks—Lagarde (ECB), Powell (Fed), Bailey (BOE), Ueda (BOJ), and Rhee (BOK). Across the board, central banks are remaining cautious and data-driven, with no firm commitments on timing for rate changes. Fed Chair Powell said the U.S. economy is strong, with inflation manageable despite expected summer upticks. He noted tariffs have delayed potential rate cuts and confirmed the Fed is proceeding meeting by meeting. BOE’s Bailey highlighted signs of softening in the UK economy and said policy remains restrictive but will ease over time. He sees the path of rates continuing downward. BOJ’s Ueda noted headline inflation is above 2%. Any hikes will depend on underlying core inflation which remains below target.
by BlackBull_Markets
PCEs & attacks on PowellWe are carefully monitoring the PCEs today, to see, "wins" this small battle in the rate-lowering war. Let's dig in. Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:US30
by Marketscom
6
Australia's CPI slows, raising rate cut expectationsThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6495, up 0.08% on the day. Australia's inflation rate headed lower in May. Headline CPI rose 2.1%, after gains of 2.4% in the previous three months. This was below the market estimate of 2.3%. Monthly, CPI eased to 0.4%, driven by lower petrol and housing costs. The key core CPI indicator, annual trimmed mean inflation, also dropped sharply, to 2.4% from 2.8%, its lowest level since Nov. 2021. The soft inflation report has boosted the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower rates at the July meeting. The markets have priced in a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut, up from 81% prior to the inflation release. The markets have priced in three more rate cuts this year, following rate cuts in February and May. The markets are counting on the RBA to be dovish in the second half of 2025. With inflation not only within the RBA's target of 2-3% but also falling, the markets expect that the RBA will be keen to lower rates in order to preserve economic growth. Federal Reserve Chair Powell testified before a House Committee on Tuesday and had a cautious message for lawmakers. Powell said that the Fed was committed to keeping inflation contained and that the Fed planned to maintain rates until the impact of tariffs on inflation was more clear and reiterated that inflation still remained above the Fed's 2% target. Powell has faced blistering criticism from President Trump for not lowering rates. In his testimony, Powell said that Trump's attacks were "having no effects" on Fed policy. AUD/USD pushed above resistance at 1.3726 and is testing resistance at 1.3727. Above, there is resistance at 1.3750 1.3713 and 1.3702 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Australian dollar jumps on Israel-Iran cease fireThe Australian dollar is up sharply on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.70% on the day. Investors' risk appetite is higher today after Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in their 12-day war. The markets have reacted favorably to lower oil prices as fears that Iran would close the Straits of Hormuz, which would have disrupted global oil supplies, have diminished. Risk appetite has returned and risk currencies like the Australian dollar have posted strong gains today. The Israel-Iran war has triggered sharp swings in oil prices and there are fears of an oil price shock if the fragile ceasefire does not hold. An oil price shock would send petrol prices higher and boost inflation, complicating the Reserve Bank of Australia's plans to lower interest rates. Australia CPI expected to ease to 2.3% Australia releases the May inflation report early on Wednesday. Headline CPI has been stuck at 2.4% for three consecutive months, within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target of 2-3% and its lowest level since Nov. 2024. The market estimate for May stands at 2.3%. Trimmed Mean CPI, a key core inflation indication, edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in April. The Reserve Bank will be keeping a close eye on the inflation report, with the central bank making a rate announcement on July 8. The RBA trimmed rates by a quarter-point in May and has shifted to a more dovish stance - the Board discussed a jumbo half-point cut at the May meeting. Fred Chair Powell appears before Congress today and Wednesday and is likely to defend the Fed's wait-and-see stance. The Fed is concerned about President Trump's tariffs and the Israel-Iran war threatens stability in the Middle East, hardly the recipe for further rate cuts. Still, there appears to be some dissent within the Fed, as two members, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have suggested that the Fed could lower rates as early as September. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6490. Above, there is resistance at 0.6522 There is support at 0.6400 and 0.6342
by OANDA
1
Upward Momentum, Caution Near 106,500–110,000 Resistance__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points Momentum: Strong bullish bias on mid/long-term (1D-4H), short-term "Down" divergences (1H/2H). Overall alignment, no capitulation/euphoria signals. Key supports / resistances: Supports at 103,300/102,600 (D Pivot Low, 720 Pivot). Major resistances: 106,480–109,952. Price compression under daily/weekly resistance, technical rejection risk. Volumes: Normal to moderately high, 1H abnormal volumes signal possible squeeze. Multi-TF: Bullish confluence 1D–6H, short-term Down divergences, caution required for late long entries under resistance. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: "Strong Buy" signal consolidated across all timeframes except 15min (neutral ST), sector bullish. ISPD DIV: Neutral on all TFs – no behavioral overheating or exhaustion. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary Overall bias: Bullish HTF setup (1D–4H), buy opportunities on dips towards 103,300/102,600, stop <102,000. Risk zones: 106,480–109,950 = resistance cluster, active management required. Technical invalidation below 102,000. Macro catalysts: Window of increased volatility 15:00–16:00 UTC (CB Consumer Confidence & Powell speech). Middle East geopolitics = “wildcard”, caution on any escalation. Action plan: Buy on pullback, manage actively >106,000, mandatory protection during news hours, reassess post-macro-volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis 1D & 12H: Upward momentum confirmed, solid supports, no exhaustion signals, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator "Strong Buy". 6H–4H: Technical and behavioral confirmation, constructive volumes, caution near immediate resistances. 2H–1H: Short-term downside divergence, 1H very high volumes = potential squeeze or shakeout, active caution required under resistance. 30min–15min: Consolidation/digestion; Risk On / Risk Off Indicator neutral at 15min, no impulsive entry point yet. Summary: Robust up-structure on HTF, buy-side strategies on dips favoured, active management imperative near resistance and macro volatility events. __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamental, On-Chain & Macro Risks Analysis Macro news: No immediate catalysts except USD news (CB Consumer Confidence, Powell) at 15:00-16H00 UTC, source of temporary volatility – no prevailing trend in question at this stage. On-chain / Market: High volumes, institutional leadership, no “retail” panic, no flush/fomo, healthy structure. Leverage: OI >$95B, stablecoin dominance, risk contained except on external triggers (macro, geopolitical). Geopolitics: Middle East context = spike risk, active management mandatory on escalation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary: • Dominant bias Up (buy on dips >102,600), active management below major resistances (106,500–110,000). • Key stop <102,000 (invalidation). • Increased risk window: 15:00–16:00 UTC (USD news). • Monitor leverage, adjust exposure ahead of key catalysts.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
British PMIs fall, Trump says won't fire PowellThe British pound dropped as much as 0.7% earlier today and is under pressure. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3265, down 0.45% on the day. The pound has taken advantage of broad US dollar weakness recently, rising 3% in the month of April. On Tuesday, the pound climbed as high as 1.3423, its highest level since September 2024. UK PMIs reports softened in April, another reminder that that the UK economy is struggling. The Services PMI fell to 48.9 from 52.5 in March, below the market estimate of 51.3. There are growing fears that the UK will fall into recession and global economic uncertainty has led to decreased business activity. The Manufacturing PMI eased to 44.0, matching the market estimate but lower than the March reading of 44.9. This was the lowest reading since August 2023 as the deteriorating global market outook has reduced demand for UK exports. The increase in employer tax contributions has hurt employment and lowered confidence. The International Monetary Fund has lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8, down from 3.3% in January. The downgrade was in response to US tariffs and the IMF warned that an escalation of trade tensions between the US and other countries would create further market volatility and lead to even lower growth. US stock markets are sharply higher on Wednesday after President Trump said that he had no intention to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump had intensified his attacks on Powell in recent days, resulting in sharp slides in US equity markets and the US dollar. Trump also said that China tariffs would drop "substantially" and investors hope this signals a de-escalation in the nasty trade war between the US and China.
by OANDA
Trump vs. Powell: 4d Gold Price Roller Coaster📊 Summary of Recent 4 Trading Days During the ongoing US-China trade war, President Trump has ramped up his public criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Though he lacks the authority to remove Powell directly it seems, Trump's frustration with the Fed’s independent policy direction has led to an apparent institutional power struggle. This conflict hasn’t gone unnoticed by the markets. Just the mention of removing Powell caused the gold price to spike, as stock market money got squeezed out, amplified by tensions in the trade war. The Federal Reserve’s credibility is high, so such remarks naturally trigger significant volatility. After Trump's initial outburst, gold surged $216. But when he softened his tone, the price reversed just as dramatically—falling about $240 (with the trading day still ongoing at the time). Hopes for progress in trade negotiations also played a role in this sharp reversal. ⚠️ Warning Signs of Market Distortion Statements from the US President now function almost like market-moving events in addition to normal news. For gold traders, this creates an unstable environment where typical technical setups may fail. The past days showed signs of manipulated or artificial movements—with potential insider activity. One notable example: Gold looked set to break higher after a 1-hour candle closed above the EMA 20 line. But a sudden $12 bearish candle in the last 30 seconds erased the setup. It felt orchestrated—possibly by institutional players defending key levels. 💡 Trader’s Takeaway Don’t blindly trust technical signals in this environment. Watch for political noise—it’s louder than usual. Prefer quieter markets if you’re risk-averse. Expect $100+ daily ranges and frequent price whipsaws. 🗣 What’s your take? Is Trump really influencing the gold market on purpose—or just creating chaos? Let’s discuss below. 👇 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Wick-Sniper
1
What if Kid Rock ran the Fed?Gold has broken above $3,400 for the first time, setting a new all-time high as investor confidence in the United States continues to decline. Citi forecasts gold could reach $3,500 within the next three months. However, this projection might be underestimating Trump’s potential to further undermine confidence in the US. On Monday, President Trump intensified pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “major loser” and demanding immediate interest rate cuts. Last week the President said, "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough,". A move to dismiss Powell would likely trigger significant market volatility. Markets generally view Powell as a stabilizing figure, and history shows that a less independent central bank is less effective at keeping inflation under control. I think it might be fair to wonder what a Federal Reserve Chairman Kid Rock would do for the price of gold.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Yen surges to five-month high as US dollar under pressureThe Japanese yen came flying out of the gates on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.00, down 0.79%. Earlier the yen strengthened to 140.47, its strongest level since Sep. 2024. The US dollar has posted losses against the major currencies on Monday, including against the yen. Investors gave the US dollar a thumbs down after President Trump's top economic advisor said that Trump was considering the dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been increasingly critical of Powell for not lowering interest rates and said last week that "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough". Trump fired his latest salvo after Powell said that US tariffs would raise inflation and that the Fed could find itself having to balance keeping a lid on inflation and supporting economic growth. Powell added that tariffs are "likely to move us further away from our goals". Powell has insisted that he isn't going anywhere and will serve until the end of his term in May 2026. Can Trump legally fire Powell? That is a complicated legal question, but the markets aren't waiting for an answer and the US dollar has retreated. Trump's attacks on Powell threaten the independence of the US central bank and is eroding confidence in the US dollar. The dollar is also under pressure from Trump's tariff policy, which has dampened the confidence of foreign investors. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 141.16. Below, there is support at 140.14. There is resistance at 142.62 and 143.64
by OANDA
10YR Bond Yields: Panic on LTF, Calm on HTF📉 10YR Bond Yields: Panic on LTF, Calm on HTF Yes, the recent spike in the 10-Year Yield is causing some short-term panic. But if you zoom out to the monthly timeframe, the bigger picture looks far more constructive. 🔍 Here’s what the chart says: The MACD and RSI on the monthly are both pointing down. Yields touched 4.5%, historically a key recession threshold. We’re now seeing a MACD bearish crossover and a clear bearish divergence—classic signs of a trend reversal. 💡 What does this mean? If no new fear or shock hits the market, yields are likely headed down, potentially toward the 2% range in the coming months. This would naturally ease pressure on equities and crypto. 📉 Conclusion: This recent spike in yields seems to be transitional, not structural. The chart suggests that the top is in, and the market is correcting from an overextended zone. The Fed might not even need to intervene—the bond market is likely to correct on its own. Stay calm. Stay rational. Always zoom out. #10YearYield #BondMarket #MacroAnalysis #InterestRates #RecessionWatch #MarketPanic #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #CryptoMarkets #StockMarketInsights #StayCalmZoomOut #DYOR
TVC:US10YShort
by CryptoNikkoid
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. While gold is relatively new to this range we have to entail some caution if we’re even going to consider trading this FOMC. Markets are a little fragile, we’re at ATH’s and the moves are extremely aggressive. So, we’ll highlight the red box levels and the potential move we’ll be looking for, sticking to the extreme and key levels, ignoring the intermediate levels. Looking at the chart we have a support region below 3010-15 which if spiked into and held can push this back up this time to break above 3030 and attempt to attack that 3050 region. That in our opinion would be the first point to start looking for price to exhaust, but it will only give us the flip so longer scalps are likely to be all we’ll get. If we break above the 3055 region we’re likely to go higher giving us a red box resistance level of 3065-75. It’s this level we would ideally like to target from a lot lower down if we can get that entry. For that reason, we have given the level below on the break of 3010 sitting around 2990-80, we’ll have to wait and see, but if we can get down there a nice swing could present itself. RED BOX INDICATOR: Break above 3030 for 3050, 3055, 3063 and 3070 in extension of the move Break below 3020 for 3912, 3006, 2996 and 2990 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
13
Ultimate summary of Powell’s comments today As expected, Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to adjust rates, and the labour market is stable. He also reaffirmed the Fed’s reliance on hard data over sentiment and the approach of slowing balance sheet reduction. What’s different this time: Inflation & tariffs: Powell acknowledged that recent inflation upticks may be tariff-driven, delaying progress toward price stability. The Fed’s base case assumes tariff inflation is temporary. Economic sentiment: Consumer sentiment has weakened, partly due to Trump policy changes, and concerns over inflation are growing. Recession risk: Forecasts now lean toward weaker growth and higher inflation, with recession risks slightly elevated but still not high.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by BlackBull_Markets
Rate Cuts Are NOT BullishRate cuts in the US have never been bullish for equity markets in macro cycles. The idea that rates coming down from 5% to 4% suddenly making people more creditworthy is a farce because rates never move in anything other than large timeframe tides. These tides reflect growth/inflation expectations, not borrowing costs. Were Jerome Powell to suddenly become very dovish at the next FOMC meeting it would be a clear signal that the SHTF protocol is in full effect. Powell is more likely to talk away the negative GDP prints as demand shocks due to tariffs/trade deficit imbalances while waiting for more data to make a decision. Labor market has been declining as well but he doesn't want to make a panic decision and also probably feels no personal loyalty to help President Trump out. Historical average for US inflation is about 3.2% with the 2% target meaning deflation is a possible problem incoming. Current US inflation rate is about 3% which is well inline with the historical average. Powell will never say it but so far his mission has been accomplished. He may cut rates at the back end of the year if necessary but as of this post he has no reason to.
TVC:US02Y
by CrashoutCapital
UK GDP beats forecast, gives sterling a liftThe British pound has edged higher on Thursday.  GBP/USD is trading at 1.2460, up 0.15% on the day. The UK economy ended 2024 on a high note, as GDP rose 0.4% m/m in December. This was the fastest pace of growth in nine months and blew past the market estimate of 01.%. The surprise gain was driven by increases in services and manufacturing activity. Annually, the economy expanded 1.5% in December, its best showing since Oct. 2022. This followed a revised 1.1% gain in November and beat the market estimate of 1%. The surprise to the upside in GDP is welcome news but is tempered by the fact that much of the growth may have been due to government spending, as business investment decreased in the fourth quarter and consumer spending was flat. GDP quarterly growth was only 0.1%, an indication that the UK economy is still weak. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, just after the release of January's hot inflation report. Headline and core CPI were both higher than expected, with headline inflation accelerating for a fourth consecutive month. Powell told lawmakers that the Fed had made "great progress" on inflation, but acknowledged there was more work to do. Powell said that the Fed doesn't "get excited about one or two bad readings" but there are concerns that inflation could be moving in the wrong direction, away from the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's battle with inflation has also become more complicated with President Donald Trump's promise to impose tariffs on US trading partners. Trump has called on the Fed to lower interest rates, raising fears that he is trying to dictate monetary policy to the Fed, which is suppose to act independent of political considerations. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2493 earlier. Above, there is support at 1.2541 1.2435 and 1.2387 are the next support levels
by OANDA
POWELL SPEECH AND XAUUSDPowell’s Testimony Today: What It Means for Gold Gold is trading at record highs, breaching $2,942/oz, as markets gear up for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress today. His remarks will likely set the tone for gold and broader market movements in the coming weeks. What’s Driving Gold Right Now? 1️⃣ Safe-Haven Demand: Uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, including new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, has pushed investors toward gold as a hedge against economic turbulence. 2️⃣ Dollar Strength vs. Gold: A stronger dollar can weigh on gold prices, while dovish signals from the Fed typically weaken the dollar, supporting gold. 3️⃣ Inflation Risks: Rising inflation expectations due to tariff-driven cost pressures may also influence gold, which is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge. What to Expect from Powell’s Testimony Powell’s testimony is critical because it will give markets a clearer view of how the Fed plans to navigate the current economic challenges. 📊 Scenario 1 – Dovish Signal: If Powell emphasizes patience in rate adjustments, focusing on the need for stability amidst trade policy uncertainties, gold could rally further. A dovish tone would likely weaken the dollar and increase demand for gold as a safe haven. 📊 Scenario 2 – Hawkish Signal: If Powell shifts the narrative toward combating potential inflationary pressures, it could signal a more aggressive Fed stance. This might strengthen the dollar and lead to a pullback in gold prices. Why This Matters for Traders Gold is at a critical inflection point, and Powell’s tone could either reinforce the current uptrend or trigger a correction. Watch how the market reacts to his comments on inflation, tariffs, and economic risks. His stance could influence gold’s direction not just today but for weeks ahead. Key levels to watch: $2,950 (immediate resistance) and $2,900 (support). A breakout above resistance could open doors to new highs, while a break below support might signal short-term bearish momentum. Stay tuned and be prepared for potential volatility. Powell’s testimony is one of those market-moving events that traders simply cannot ignore. #gold #Fed #trading #Powell #forex #marketupdate motivate us by hitting boost button
OANDA:XAUUSD
by realmillionairefx
USOIL Trade Log - CPI Session USOIL Short Trade Setup – CPI Session Incoming 🚨 - Instrument: West Texas Oil (USOIL) - Timeframe: 4-Hour - Risk: 1% max due to CPI volatility - Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2 Key Technical Analysis: 1. Price has reached a strong resistance zone within the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is showing signs of rejection. 2. The Kijun Weekly and 4H levels align with this area, increasing the probability of a reversal. 3. Market structure has been bearish overall, with a clear Break of Structure (BOS) and internal liquidity grabs. CPI Session Volatility Warning: - With the CPI release incoming, expect aggressive moves and potential liquidity sweeps before directional commitment. - If price runs liquidity above the FVG and shows strong bearish confirmations, this becomes a high-probability short. - Manage risk carefully – no need to overexpose with CPI in play. Trade Plan: - Entry: Within the 4H FVG upon bearish confirmation. - Stop Loss: Above the FVG high to avoid CPI wicks. - Take Profit: At least 1:2 RRR, ideally targeting recent lows. Stay sharp, play the reaction, and don’t force the trade if the setup invalidates. CPI is where weak hands get rinsed! 💀
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Fondera
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.12.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies: At 10:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Wednesday, Feb 12: 🏢 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM. 📈 Core CPI (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM. 📉 CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected 2.9%; Previous 2.9%. 📉 Core CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected 3.1%; Previous 3.2%. 🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET): Previous: +8.664M. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SP:SPX
by TrendTao
EURUSD 11 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - Powell & Tariffs!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 11 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment My Weekly Analysis HERE still the same as Tariffs is the main theme but market reaction is the key. Is the market got used to the Tariffs news so reactions will be soft and fade or we are going to see more fear in the market with Tariff War narrative? Today Powell will be the market mover as investors are waiting for a clue for direction. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Strong Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹INT Structure continuing Bearish following the 4H Bearish INT structure Continuation. 🔹Since yesterday market open, price is ranging within the Bearish INT structure. 🔹Current INT High is the 4H CHoCH which could be taken out as liquidity for continuation down. 🔹After reaching the Bearish INT structure extreme price is moving down in a corrective PA and currently in the extreme discount of the INT Structure. 🔹For me, I’d prefer to short from the 4H Supply after sweeping the 15m INT High (4H CHoCH). No Long setups/confirmations are clear for me. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
XAUUSD - Gold awaits the Fed meeting!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling marked with the target of the bottom of the ascending channel. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with its next buying position. Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, has warned that the anticipated interest rate cuts could be delayed if Donald Trump’s second-term tariffs take effect and drive inflation higher. Speaking with Andrew Ross Sorkin of CNBC, he stated: “I have been saying for some time that inflation is far more persistent than we initially thought. The key question now is how tariffs will impact inflation.” He further added: “Tariffs are unlikely to help in reducing inflation. Therefore, I do not expect rates to drop as quickly as many anticipate.” With Trump’s trade policies in play, the risk of rising inflation is high, and a major clash between Trump and the Federal Reserve over interest rate cuts seems inevitable. Such tensions could negatively impact the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Scott Bessant, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary, is proposing a gradual global tariff plan starting at 2.5%, which will increase monthly and could reach up to 20%. This strategy aims to give businesses time to adjust to the new economic landscape. The Financial Times reported this plan, citing anonymous sources for details. At the same time, the U.S.Senate has confirmed Scott Bessant as Treasury Secretary with a majority vote. This decision comes as Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imports from Colombia, reinforcing his aggressive trade policy stance. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is set to conclude today, and it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, analysts argue that gold markets are now focusing more on Trump’s policies rather than short-term aggressive monetary measures. Gold prices rallied after Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. In a video address to global business leaders and policymakers, he urged central banks worldwide to cut interest rates. Trump stated: “I am strongly calling for an immediate rate cut, and this must happen globally.” Economists note that Trump’s remarks contradict the current economic reality, as a relatively strong economy continues to fuel persistent inflation. In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has warned consumers about growing upside inflation risks and is seeking to shorten the current monetary easing cycle. Ahead of this week’s policy meeting, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with only one rate cut projected for this year. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, believes that the divergent views between Trump and the Federal Reserve have created uncertainty, benefiting gold as a safe-haven asset. He further stated that the recent bullish momentum in the gold market suggests that the $2,800 price level may just be the beginning. Hansen concluded: “As long as this uncertainty persists, I see no risk of overheating. Any downside break could trigger fresh buying interest.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD 29 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - US Interest Rate / PowellThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Tariff Discussions Continue: Still the main factor currently that effects the market and supporting USD with Trump insistence to apply Tariffs Plan. Powell Press Conference: Today Rate decision is already priced in but the market is waiting for Powell press conference to give clues on what will be the Fed plan with Trump's recent announcements as on one hand, he has expressed a strong commitment to reducing inflation; on the other, his proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on February 1, 2025, are anticipated to exert upward pressure on prices. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price is currently mitigating the 4H Demand and we could see some bullish move to facilitate the LTF pullbacks only. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to facilitate the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structure turned bearish after mitigating the Daily Supply zone. 🔹With the bearish BOS, a pullback is expected, currently INT structure is bearish and mitigating the 4H Demand. 🔹Price currently at the extreme of the Bearish INT structure and there is a HP that the Strong INT High could be taken out in order to facilitate the 15m Bearish Swing Pullback Phase. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set neutral due to the following: US Interest Rate decision and Powell Press Conference. We are currently within the 4H demand and it’s tough to follow the 15m Bearish INT Structure and Short. Not yet Bullish iBOS to indicate that the 15m Swing Pullback is starting.
by Amr-Sadek