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UK GDP beats forecast, gives sterling a liftThe British pound has edged higher on Thursday.  GBP/USD is trading at 1.2460, up 0.15% on the day. The UK economy ended 2024 on a high note, as GDP rose 0.4% m/m in December. This was the fastest pace of growth in nine months and blew past the market estimate of 01.%. The surprise gain was driven by increases in services and manufacturing activity. Annually, the economy expanded 1.5% in December, its best showing since Oct. 2022. This followed a revised 1.1% gain in November and beat the market estimate of 1%. The surprise to the upside in GDP is welcome news but is tempered by the fact that much of the growth may have been due to government spending, as business investment decreased in the fourth quarter and consumer spending was flat. GDP quarterly growth was only 0.1%, an indication that the UK economy is still weak. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, just after the release of January's hot inflation report. Headline and core CPI were both higher than expected, with headline inflation accelerating for a fourth consecutive month. Powell told lawmakers that the Fed had made "great progress" on inflation, but acknowledged there was more work to do. Powell said that the Fed doesn't "get excited about one or two bad readings" but there are concerns that inflation could be moving in the wrong direction, away from the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's battle with inflation has also become more complicated with President Donald Trump's promise to impose tariffs on US trading partners. Trump has called on the Fed to lower interest rates, raising fears that he is trying to dictate monetary policy to the Fed, which is suppose to act independent of political considerations. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2493 earlier. Above, there is support at 1.2541 1.2435 and 1.2387 are the next support levels
by OANDA
POWELL SPEECH AND XAUUSDPowell’s Testimony Today: What It Means for Gold Gold is trading at record highs, breaching $2,942/oz, as markets gear up for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress today. His remarks will likely set the tone for gold and broader market movements in the coming weeks. What’s Driving Gold Right Now? 1️⃣ Safe-Haven Demand: Uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, including new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, has pushed investors toward gold as a hedge against economic turbulence. 2️⃣ Dollar Strength vs. Gold: A stronger dollar can weigh on gold prices, while dovish signals from the Fed typically weaken the dollar, supporting gold. 3️⃣ Inflation Risks: Rising inflation expectations due to tariff-driven cost pressures may also influence gold, which is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge. What to Expect from Powell’s Testimony Powell’s testimony is critical because it will give markets a clearer view of how the Fed plans to navigate the current economic challenges. 📊 Scenario 1 – Dovish Signal: If Powell emphasizes patience in rate adjustments, focusing on the need for stability amidst trade policy uncertainties, gold could rally further. A dovish tone would likely weaken the dollar and increase demand for gold as a safe haven. 📊 Scenario 2 – Hawkish Signal: If Powell shifts the narrative toward combating potential inflationary pressures, it could signal a more aggressive Fed stance. This might strengthen the dollar and lead to a pullback in gold prices. Why This Matters for Traders Gold is at a critical inflection point, and Powell’s tone could either reinforce the current uptrend or trigger a correction. Watch how the market reacts to his comments on inflation, tariffs, and economic risks. His stance could influence gold’s direction not just today but for weeks ahead. Key levels to watch: $2,950 (immediate resistance) and $2,900 (support). A breakout above resistance could open doors to new highs, while a break below support might signal short-term bearish momentum. Stay tuned and be prepared for potential volatility. Powell’s testimony is one of those market-moving events that traders simply cannot ignore. #gold #Fed #trading #Powell #forex #marketupdate motivate us by hitting boost button
OANDA:XAUUSD
by realmillionairefx
USOIL Trade Log - CPI Session USOIL Short Trade Setup – CPI Session Incoming 🚨 - Instrument: West Texas Oil (USOIL) - Timeframe: 4-Hour - Risk: 1% max due to CPI volatility - Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2 Key Technical Analysis: 1. Price has reached a strong resistance zone within the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is showing signs of rejection. 2. The Kijun Weekly and 4H levels align with this area, increasing the probability of a reversal. 3. Market structure has been bearish overall, with a clear Break of Structure (BOS) and internal liquidity grabs. CPI Session Volatility Warning: - With the CPI release incoming, expect aggressive moves and potential liquidity sweeps before directional commitment. - If price runs liquidity above the FVG and shows strong bearish confirmations, this becomes a high-probability short. - Manage risk carefully – no need to overexpose with CPI in play. Trade Plan: - Entry: Within the 4H FVG upon bearish confirmation. - Stop Loss: Above the FVG high to avoid CPI wicks. - Take Profit: At least 1:2 RRR, ideally targeting recent lows. Stay sharp, play the reaction, and don’t force the trade if the setup invalidates. CPI is where weak hands get rinsed! 💀
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Fondera
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.12.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies: At 10:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Wednesday, Feb 12: 🏢 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM. 📈 Core CPI (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM. 📉 CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected 2.9%; Previous 2.9%. 📉 Core CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected 3.1%; Previous 3.2%. 🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET): Previous: +8.664M. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SP:SPX
by PogChan
EURUSD 11 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - Powell & Tariffs!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 11 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment My Weekly Analysis HERE still the same as Tariffs is the main theme but market reaction is the key. Is the market got used to the Tariffs news so reactions will be soft and fade or we are going to see more fear in the market with Tariff War narrative? Today Powell will be the market mover as investors are waiting for a clue for direction. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Strong Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹INT Structure continuing Bearish following the 4H Bearish INT structure Continuation. 🔹Since yesterday market open, price is ranging within the Bearish INT structure. 🔹Current INT High is the 4H CHoCH which could be taken out as liquidity for continuation down. 🔹After reaching the Bearish INT structure extreme price is moving down in a corrective PA and currently in the extreme discount of the INT Structure. 🔹For me, I’d prefer to short from the 4H Supply after sweeping the 15m INT High (4H CHoCH). No Long setups/confirmations are clear for me. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
XAUUSD - Gold awaits the Fed meeting!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling marked with the target of the bottom of the ascending channel. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with its next buying position. Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, has warned that the anticipated interest rate cuts could be delayed if Donald Trump’s second-term tariffs take effect and drive inflation higher. Speaking with Andrew Ross Sorkin of CNBC, he stated: “I have been saying for some time that inflation is far more persistent than we initially thought. The key question now is how tariffs will impact inflation.” He further added: “Tariffs are unlikely to help in reducing inflation. Therefore, I do not expect rates to drop as quickly as many anticipate.” With Trump’s trade policies in play, the risk of rising inflation is high, and a major clash between Trump and the Federal Reserve over interest rate cuts seems inevitable. Such tensions could negatively impact the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Scott Bessant, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary, is proposing a gradual global tariff plan starting at 2.5%, which will increase monthly and could reach up to 20%. This strategy aims to give businesses time to adjust to the new economic landscape. The Financial Times reported this plan, citing anonymous sources for details. At the same time, the U.S.Senate has confirmed Scott Bessant as Treasury Secretary with a majority vote. This decision comes as Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imports from Colombia, reinforcing his aggressive trade policy stance. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is set to conclude today, and it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, analysts argue that gold markets are now focusing more on Trump’s policies rather than short-term aggressive monetary measures. Gold prices rallied after Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. In a video address to global business leaders and policymakers, he urged central banks worldwide to cut interest rates. Trump stated: “I am strongly calling for an immediate rate cut, and this must happen globally.” Economists note that Trump’s remarks contradict the current economic reality, as a relatively strong economy continues to fuel persistent inflation. In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has warned consumers about growing upside inflation risks and is seeking to shorten the current monetary easing cycle. Ahead of this week’s policy meeting, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with only one rate cut projected for this year. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, believes that the divergent views between Trump and the Federal Reserve have created uncertainty, benefiting gold as a safe-haven asset. He further stated that the recent bullish momentum in the gold market suggests that the $2,800 price level may just be the beginning. Hansen concluded: “As long as this uncertainty persists, I see no risk of overheating. Any downside break could trigger fresh buying interest.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD 29 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - US Interest Rate / PowellThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Tariff Discussions Continue: Still the main factor currently that effects the market and supporting USD with Trump insistence to apply Tariffs Plan. Powell Press Conference: Today Rate decision is already priced in but the market is waiting for Powell press conference to give clues on what will be the Fed plan with Trump's recent announcements as on one hand, he has expressed a strong commitment to reducing inflation; on the other, his proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on February 1, 2025, are anticipated to exert upward pressure on prices. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price is currently mitigating the 4H Demand and we could see some bullish move to facilitate the LTF pullbacks only. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to facilitate the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structure turned bearish after mitigating the Daily Supply zone. 🔹With the bearish BOS, a pullback is expected, currently INT structure is bearish and mitigating the 4H Demand. 🔹Price currently at the extreme of the Bearish INT structure and there is a HP that the Strong INT High could be taken out in order to facilitate the 15m Bearish Swing Pullback Phase. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set neutral due to the following: US Interest Rate decision and Powell Press Conference. We are currently within the 4H demand and it’s tough to follow the 15m Bearish INT Structure and Short. Not yet Bullish iBOS to indicate that the 15m Swing Pullback is starting.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD Sellers have an advantage towards Trump's Inauguration After carefully following up on US and EURO Zone data. We can positively say that the data has been favorable to the dollar. As at now the Fed has reduced the number of expected cuts this yr while ECB maintains a dovish tone promising a series of cuts even if they are not to be consistent. Also we have seen the NFP Data high and unemployment declining. If Trump maintains his stand on tariffs we should expect the EURO to be hurt.
Short
by WisdomArnold
USD/JPY hits 5-mth high after BoJ holds ratesThe Japanese yen continues its rapid descent and is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.82, up 1.3% on the day. Earlier, the yen weakened to 157.14, its lowest level against the US dollar since July 22. The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve on Thursday as it maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.25%. The BoJ has kept rates steady since July but has signaled that it intends to normalize policy and raise rates. The central bank has been guarded about the timing of a rate hike and there was some speculation that it might raise rates at Thursday's meeting. The decision to hold rates was not unanimous, with 8 members voting in favor and one member voting for a 25-basis point hike. The rate statement did not shed much light on the BoJ's plans but Governor Ueda said at his press conference that the BoJ could afford to move slowly on raising rates since underlying inflation was only increasing at a "moderate pace". The markets expect another rate hike in the first quarter of 2025. Ueda also noted that there was uncertainty over the policies of the  incoming Trump administration. Trump has declared he will impose tariffs on US trading partners, which could affect global inflation. Interestingly, the BoJ holds its next meeting on Jan. 24, a day after Trump takes office. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut was widely expected but the market was surprised by the Fed's updated rate-cut forecast. In September, the Fed projected four rate cuts in 2025 but this was halved to just two cuts at the Wednesday meeting. US stock markets were sharply lower in response but the US dollar shined and rose sharply on Wednesday against all the major currencies, including 0.85% against the yen. At his follow-up press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he was "very optimistic" about the strength of the US economy but he was less rosy about inflation, which has stalled above the Fed's 2% target. Powell said, "we have been moving sideways on 12-month inflation", a signal that the Fed may take a pause from its easing cycle until inflation resumes its downswing. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.38 and 155.92 and is putting pressure on resistance at 156.98 154.32 and 153.78 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY - The weakness of the yen will stop?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of correction due to the release of economic data this week, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with appropriate risk reward. Breaking the downtrend line and the specified resistance range will pave the way for the currency pair to rise to the supply zone. We will sell currency pairs in that range. Bank of Japan (BOJ) to Release Review of Monetary Policy Tools According to Reuters, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to release the findings of a comprehensive review next month, evaluating the advantages and drawbacks of various unconventional monetary policy tools employed over the past 25 years to combat deflation. This review is seen as a symbolic step towards ending BOJ’s era of massive stimulus measures. The report will include findings and surveys that justify BOJ’s plan to gradually normalize its monetary policies. The review’s results are expected to be published after the final BOJ policy meeting of the year, scheduled for December 18–19, and may include a potential rate hike from the current level of 0.25%. Japan’s ruling coalition, comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, has reached an agreement with the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) on an economic stimulus package. The package includes cash handouts for low-income households, subsidies to assist with utility bill payments, and additional investments in artificial intelligence and semiconductors. The three parties have agreed to raise the income tax threshold and continue discussions on reducing gasoline taxes. This agreement requires legislative revisions to be addressed during next year’s parliamentary session. Following the ruling coalition’s loss of its majority in the lower house, DPP’s support has become crucial for advancing the package. However, some economists have expressed skepticism about the package’s limited impact on boosting consumer spending. BOJ Chief Kazuo Ueda’s Remarks: Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ Governor, stressed the need for the government to monitor medium-term financial sustainability. He stated that the policies of the new U.S. administration will be closely examined and integrated into Japan’s economic outlook as a key priority.Ueda also highlighted the transformative impact of generative AI on the financial industry. Massive Treasury Bond Sell-Off by Japan and China Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Japan and China, two of the largest holders of U.S. government debt, sold significant amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds during the third quarter of this year. Japanese investors offloaded a record $61.9 billion worth of these bonds in the quarter ending September 30, while Chinese funds sold $51.3 billion in the same period, marking the second-largest volume recorded. These sell-offs occurred ahead of the U.S. presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory.
Long
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq will reach above 21,000?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index rises towards the two specified supply zones, you can look for NASDAQ sell positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq's buying position is in the demand zone after the continuation of the corrective movement, and considering the downward sentiment at the end of the week, it should be saved quickly. China’s Export Restrictions and Their Impact on Global Supply Chains • China Tightens Export Controls: Starting December 1, China will implement new regulations to tighten export restrictions on critical metals and raw materials, including tungsten, graphite, magnesium, and aluminum alloys, essential for the technology sector. • China’s Objectives: These measures are part of a broader strategy to manage sensitive exports and protect national interests. • Global Market Impact: The new restrictions are expected to disrupt global technology supply chains and introduce volatility in related markets. Zelensky’s Perspective on Trump’s Presidency • Zelensky’s Comments: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the war in Ukraine could end sooner if Donald Trump returns to the White House. • Constructive Interaction with Trump: Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine successfully communicated its vision for peace to Trump, and he observed no opposition from Trump regarding Ukraine’s stance. • Implications of Zelensky’s Remarks: These comments reflect Ukraine’s hope for continued international support to expedite the resolution of the conflict. US Economic Forecasts • Q3 Earnings Reports from Major Companies: This week, companies such as NVIDIA and TARGET will release their third-quarter (Q3) earnings reports. • Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, predicts that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. • The current Federal Funds rate range is 4.5% to 4.75%, which Rieder considers restrictive. • Following the December cut, the Fed is expected to pause temporarily to reassess future adjustments. Jerome Powell’s Statements and Market Reactions • Powell on a Strong US Economy: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the robust performance of the US economy, stating there is no urgency to lower interest rates. • Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts: Powell stressed that decisions should be made carefully due to uncertainties surrounding the neutral rate level. • Market Reaction: These statements reduced market expectations for a rate cut in December.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD - Silver Vs FOMC?!Silver is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the decline continues due to the FOMC today, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend continues, silver can be sold within the specified supply zone. World Bank analysts believe that silver is a precious metal worth monitoring in 2025. The World Bank has recently updated its commodity market forecasts. While gold is expected to maintain its strong performance within the broader market, analysts have forecasted weaker demand extending from next year through 2026. The analysts noted, “Demand for gold from central banks and the jewelry sector, which together constitute about two-thirds of global demand, is likely to decrease due to unprecedented high prices.” Nevertheless, the World Bank sees greater potential in silver, given expectations that rising demand and limited supply will help support prices. World Bank analysts further stated, “Silver demand is anticipated to increase steadily in the forecast horizon, driven by its dual financial and industrial uses.” With supply growth lagging behind the positive factors supporting demand, silver prices are projected to increase by 7% in 2025 and by 3% in 2026, following an expected 20% increase in 2024. Many analysts expect silver to outperform gold by 2025, as it is currently priced well below its intrinsic value. Nomura believes that a second Trump administration would focus heavily on tariff and tax policies, potentially leading to inflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Nomura forecasts that the Federal Reserve will respond prudently to these changes. The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, followed by a single cut in 2025, and then take a prolonged pause on further cuts.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Euro extends losses as eurozone CPI slows to 1.8%The euro continues to lose ground and is trading at 1.1080 in the North American session, down 0.49% on the day. The euro is down for a third consecutive day and has declined 0.9% during that time. Eurozone inflation eased to 1.8% y/y in September, down from 2.2% in August and below the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the lowest rate since April 2021 and below the European Central Bank’s inflation target of 2%. The drop in inflation was largely driven by the sharp decrease in energy prices. Monthly, inflation declined by 0.1%, down from the 0.1% gain in August. Services inflation, which has been a headache for the ECB, dropped from 4.1% to 4.0%. The core rate, which is a better indicator of long-term inflation trends, fell to 2.7%, down from 2.8% in August and below the market estimate of 2.8%. Inflation declined across the bloc, with Germany, France, Italy and Spain all recording inflation rates below 2%. The ECB has approached the new rate-cutting cycle with caution, as high services inflation and wage growth are reminders that the battle against inflation isn’t over. The markets expect the ECB to remain on the sidelines at the October meeting and re-evaluate a possible rate cut in December. The Federal Reserve is expected to be aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle, which started last month with a large cut of 50 basis points. On Monday, Fed Chair Powell poured cold water on expectations for another jumbo rate cut, saying that the economy was in “solid shape” and that the Fed was not in any rush to cut rates quickly. Powell’s remarks have lowered market odds of a 50-bps cut to 40%, compared to 58% one week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch. EUR/USD pushed below support at 1.1096 and tested support at 1.1058 earlier. The next support level is 1.1001 1.1153 and 1.1191 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Swiss franc edges lower after Swiss central bank cuts ratesThe Swiss franc is showing limited movement on Thursday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8483, down 0.24% on the day. In the US, it’s a busy day with US GDP, unemployment claims and durable goods orders. As well, Federal Reserve Chair Powell and several FOMC members will deliver remarks. The Swiss National Bank lowered its cash rate by 25 basis points to 1%, its third straight reduction. The cash rate is now at its lowest level since early 2023. The move was not a surprise and the Swiss franc has showed a limited reaction to the rate announcement. The SNB statement noted that inflation has “decreased significantly”, in part due to the appreciation of the Swiss franc and that inflation, which has fallen to 1.1%, was lower than expected. The statement added that further rate cuts “may become necessary” to ensure price stability. The stronger Swiss franc has raised the possibility of a currency intervention by the SNB and investors were on the look-out for any hints from the SNB at today’s meeting. The statement didn’t point to any intervention plans, noting that the central bank “remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.” The Swiss franc’s safe haven status has made it an attractive asset at a time of market volatility but this is hurting the critical export sector. The SNB could step in if the Swiss franc continues to appreciate. The SNB has become a frontrunner among central banks in cutting interest rates, a result of its success in taming inflation. Other major banks have also lowered rates but are still concerned about the upside risk of inflation and have not chopped rates as aggressively as the SNB. USD/CHF is testing support at 0.8475. Below, there is support at 0.8444 0.8536 and 0.8567 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Iconic Failed Bullish move on SPX?If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff. Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up. Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were expecting. The rate cut that everyone was so bulled up on ended up backfiring in the markets face. The market sold off and reversed lower. Historically this is a phenomenon we can observe throughout previous rate cutting cycles. Along with a buy the rumour sell type of day, the candle formation om the SPX are appearing to be higher volume reversal candles. Today session almost completed bearishly engulfed yesterday’s session. These 2 candles have also proceeded to be trading at New All Time Highs before failing to hold and reversing Lower.
SP:SPX
by Trading-Capital
Yen shrugs as inflation BoJ core CPI dipsThe Japanese yen has edged lower on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.76, up 0.17% on the day at the time of writing. Is Japanese inflation falling? On Tuesday, two inflation indicators pointed to a deceleration in inflation in July. BoJ Core CPI, which is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan, dropped to 1.8%, down from 2.1% in June and its lowest level in three months. The Services Producer Price Index dropped to 2.8%, down from a revised 3.1% in June. Japan’s inflation has been moving higher, which has supported the case for another rate hike from the Bank of Japan. The central bank has projected that inflation will hover around its 2% target until 2027. Today’s inflation releases could be temporary blips but if the next inflation reports also indicate that inflation is heading lower, it could complicate the BoJ’s plans to gradually normalize its ultra-loose policy. The International Monetary Fund said on Friday that it supports the BoJ’s move to normalization and that the speed of further rate hikes will be ‘very data-dependent”, with a focus on inflation, wage growth and inflation expectations. We’ll get a look at Tokyo Core CPI on Friday, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.2%. The Jackson Hole Symposium was “mission accomplished” for the markets as Federal Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed was ready to cut rates. Powell didn’t specify the September meeting as the kickoff for rate cuts, but the markets are confident that the Fed will cut by a quarter-point at the Sept. 18 meeting. The US releases a key employment report on Sept. 6 and Goldman Sachs has said that if the jobs report is soft again then the Fed could respond with a 50-basis point cut, while a strong jobs release would support a 25-bps move. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 144.98. Above, there is resistance at 145.42 There is support at 144.21 and 143.77
by OANDA
EUR/USD dips as German business climate fallsThe euro is in negative territory on Monday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1156 at the time of writing, down 0.32% on the day. The euro posted strong gains on Friday, rising 0.73% and breaking above 1.12 for the first time since July 17. The markets got what they were looking for from Federal Reserve Chair Powell on Friday – an endorsement for a rate cut. Powell didn’t specify when the Fed would cut but said that the “time has come for policy to adjust”. Investors are ready for the Fed’s first rate cut in over four years at the Sept. 18 meeting. What is still up in the air is the size of the cut. Just one month ago, the odds of a 25-basis point cut stood at 88% and 12% for a cut of 50 bps, according to the CME’s FedWatch. Since then, the US economy has posted some weaker-than-expected data and the probability of a 25-bps reduction has fallen to 63.5% for a 25-bps cut vs. 36.5% for a 50 bps move. One key factor in the Fed’s decision will be the August jobs report on Sept. 6. A very weak report for July panicked investors that the US economy was hurtling towards a recession and financial markets were routed before bouncing back. Another weak jobs report could rattle investors and push the Fed to respond with a 50-bps cut. The expected September cut will mark the start of a new rate cycle for the Fed, which has maintained rates at 5.25%-5.50% for over a year. The Fed is expected to lower rates at least one more time this year and continue trimming into 2025. Germany’s Ifo Institute business climate sentiment index declined in August for a fourth consecutive time as the German economy continues to struggle. The index eased to 86.6, down from 87.0 but above the market estimate of 86.0. The survey’s manufacturing component dropped sharply and the services component also fell. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.1165. Below, there is support at 1.1130 1.1229 and 1.1264 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Canadian dollar jumps on retail sales reboundThe Canadian dollar is showing some strength on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3532 at the time of writing, down 0.60% on the day. The Canadian dollar is at its highest level since early April and is poised to post its third winning week in a row. Canada’s retail sales report was a mix. In June, retail sales fell 0.3% m/m, confirming the initial estimate and following a May reading of -0.8%. However, the initial estimate for July jumped 0.6%, which would indicate a much-needed rebound in consumer spending. Retail sales were down 0.5% in the second quarter and 0.4% in Q1, which would mark the weakest two quarters since 2009, outside the covid pandemic. The spike in July is likely due to the Bank of Canada’s quarter-point rate cuts in June and July, bringing down the benchmark rate to 4.5%. The BoC is expected to continue to trim rates as inflation has eased and the labor market shows signs of decline. The annual Jackson Hole meeting has begun and the highlight of the summit will be today’s speech from the host, Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The markets are all ears, although it would not be a surprise if Powell’s speech is little more than a cautious acknowledgment that inflation is moving in the right direction and that the Fed is poised to cut at the Sept. 18 meeting. The markets have fully priced in a rate cut at next month’s meeting, with the odds at 71% for a 25-basis point cut and 29% for a 50-bps cut, according to CME’s FedWatch. There’s a strong chance that the Fed will deliver additional cuts before the end of the year, but recent employment data has been very weak and that could delay further rate cuts. The next employment report on Sept. 6 will be a key factor in determining the Fed’s rate path. USD/CAD has pushed below support at 1.3578 and is testing support at 1.3538. Below, there is support at 1.3478 There is resistance at 1.3628 and 1.3653
by OANDA